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GLD is now 168. DZZ 5.03. Sell DZZ
No look at the off hours # up .34! Getting exciting
Hi wealth. No moderator??
Italia, IREland and Espania first.
Im for the US paying off the nat'nl debt with fort knox now lol
The biggst obstacle I see is when Bernanke speaks, as he will on Friday, gold spikes upward.
That is a risk, but the bond market will react much more violently, IMO.
We shall see! The risk is surely "on" in gold right now
hmm. well, gaps in ETFs like this are the norm. remember, gold trades 24/7. GLD and DZZ are just a USA-centric picture of the trade.
Can you chart the futures contract? I'd trade based on that.
I am holding from yesterday's buy and as far as support, it gapped so many times coming down that it can probably climb another 75¢ - $1.75 before hitting any significant resistance.
The biggst obstacle I see is when Bernanke speaks, as he will on Friday, gold spikes upward.
Be careful out there.
Buy, Sell or Hold?
Where do you see support for a re-buy...
DZZ up again +8% or so at the moment.
Looks be ending at the HOD... +12%
Any thoughts on this. Have we reached the bottom? I said somewhere around 6.5 would be the bottom of the trough for DZZ back when it was at 10 a share and a friend of mine bought. Now I'm actually thinking that might happen.
I agree and time will tell.
I guess it bottoms when gold tops! LOL. We have to see if the double top fails this round. That will be the deciding factor.
Where do you think this bottoms and when any gut feeling?
frenchee- Not sure which rally you're referring to since you responded to a month old post.
RBKMA, does this rally have legs or are we near a consolidation?
Revised charts in iBox RBKMA
french- I think the minor miners had a reversal day today. GSS hit 1.06 but closed @1.17. So, you may get your signal oh, say tomorrow?
Today was profit taking time per the referenced e-mail.
Looking for a long DB Gold Double Long ETN entry signal now...
It takes to long for profits to clear!
Even double discounts fail to lift demand for gold
http://www.business-standard.com/india/news/even-double-discounts-fail-to-lift-demand-for-gold/351122/
Get ready to take some profit on DZZ. 1/2 position at 45-day MA and other half at the upper Bollinger Band on the daily chart.
Stocks bear market has years to run: Prechter
Fri Feb 27, 2009
NEW YORK (Reuters) - U.S. stocks will remain in a bear market for years as company earnings shrink further, and the S&P 500 could fall by half from current levels even though there could be a sharp short-term rally soon, Robert Prechter, who had forecast the 1987 market crash, said on Friday.
"My long term opinion is that the bear market has several years left to run, and stock prices will go a lot lower," Prechter, chief executive officer at research company Elliott Wave International, said in a telephone interview. "So any rally that happens is going to be a bear market rally."
The S&P this week broke below 745 points -- 19 months after Gainesville, Georgia-based Elliott Wave International had recommended shorting the benchmark index down to that level.
Now, Prechter said, the S&P index could fall by half from these levels over the long term, although he declined to give a specific forecast.
"We are less than halfway through it price-wise," he said. "The market is still overvalued, one reason being that companies continue to lower earnings."
But near term, the risk of a kneejerk rebound in stock prices has risen.
This week Prechter recommended closing out the short position recommended on the S&P 500 back in 2007, because too many investors are now betting that prices will drop.
"The bear side has gotten a bit crowded in the stock market," Prechter said, but said this is a short term strategic view only.
On Friday morning, the S&P 500 fell to a 12-year low around 735 points, mauled by deepening worries about the banking system and government data showing the deepest quarterly contraction in the U.S. economy since the early 1980s.
NO GLITTER IN GOLD
Prechter now advocates betting on a decline in precious metals, after investors fearful about the safety of their money amid the biggest global financial crisis since the Great Depression have piled into the classic safe haven of gold in recent weeks, boosting its price.
On Monday, Prechter forecast that gold had just peaked, at $1,000 an ounce.
"Gold and silver should go significantly lower," he said. "Too many people now think owning them is a good idea. Remember when everybody thought owning real estate and stocks was a good idea?"
Gold, which briefly topped the $1,000 mark last week on escalating fears about the deeply impaired state of debt-burdened banks, has since slipped to about $950. Gold hit "an important intermediate term peak," at $1,000, Prechter said.
"Again, nothing is certain, but I like betting against crowds. And we have had so many to bet against in recent years: real estate, stocks, subprime mortgages, The New Economy, oil, collectibles, commodities, baseball salaries, and now silver and bonds. It's been a smorgasbord of opportunity," Prechter said.
In addition, Prechter has a pessimistic outlook on U.S. government bonds.
"Treasury bonds have started a bear market," over the longer term, he said.
"Several scenarios could unfold to explain why: one of them is that government borrowing demands could go up and up and creditors could demand higher yields," he said. The U.S. government is expected to issue some $2 trillion of debt this year.
Fixed-income analysts have been stepping up warnings that over recent months that gargantuan government bond issuance to pay for financial rescue efforts may push yields, which move inversely to prices, steeply higher. The 10-year yield traded one percentage point its five-decade trough on Friday, at 3.04 percent.
But Prechter, as he originally urged in his 2002 book "Conquer the Crash," which warned of the dangers of a U.S. debt bubble and deflationary depression, continues to favor safer cash proxies such as Treasury bills.
"It's a deflationary environment. Safe cash equivalents are still where you want to be," he said. "I am still in favor of (U.S.) T-bills," he said. "The dollar bull market has more to run. That is one reason to hold them."
Dumped it @23 for a nice chunk.
I put on the short last week but the market was so volatile I got shaken out. Back in DZZ today.
Short-term buy signal on the daily chart with today's close > 5-day EMA and on decisive volume too. A close > the downtrend line on the daily chart confirms the signal.
Thats awesome...
I just decided because i had this weird feeling..
I just started investing because i keep getting weird feelings about the prices of things and turn out being right.
Go golfbears!! Its your birthday!!
I timed this trade perfectly. Went from double long to double short in just a couple days. WOOOOHOOOOOOOOOO
Yup - Im totally onboard with this one now. I had planned on averaging in but just shot the wad yesterday. Now Im ready for gold to take a huge digger!
Relative performance chart between DZZ and GLL. So long as the trend is up, DZZ is outperforming GLL.
12 Reasons to Short Gold
http://seekingalpha.com/article/120007-12-reasons-to-short-gold
You can rent!
Nice run spot gold, short you to death time when you hit that resistance!
I like DJI. Don't know who about INVESTCO
frenchee ;
BCS saved its azz! Did receive mo funds from Middle east!
$6 now.
Dont know too much about Deutsche Bank Gold funds.. are these INVESCO creations?
Any thing else for easy investments in commodities?
Are ETNs in Trouble?
January 27, 2009 at 2:00 pm by Tom Lydon
Speculation has arisen the Barclays could be nationalized, which raises a big question for holders of its line of iPath exchange traded notes (ETNs).
The New York Times recently reported that Barclays would be cutting 2,100 jobs within their investment banking and wealth management division. This news comes at a sour time. Many banks have lost money in the last year, some have collapsed altogether. As debt instruments backed by the creditworthiness of their issuer, this has some wondering about the safety of these ETNs. It was illustrated earlier this year after Lehman Brothers went bankrupt, creating anxiety amid the ETN industry, reports Joe Morris for Ignites.
Holders of the notes could face dire losses if the issuing bank defaults, reports Ian Salisbury for The Wall Street Journal. One advisor noted that the odds of Barclays getting nationalized are low, and for its part, the bank says investors shouldn’t have cause for concern.
One strategist notes in an ETF Update from Janney Montgomery Scott that nationalization does not create an event for the default of debt, and that governments would provide support for any “systematically important” financial institution, instead of allowing it to default on senior debt.
The bank issued a statement regarding the fact that the iPath ETNs continue to pull in assets and that issuance is at all-time highs. The bank says this is because ETNs are easier to trade and have more predictable risks than swaps contracts. Barclays also nots that on Feb. 17, it expects to report a profit before tax and beat analyst estimates.
As with every investment product, investors need to do their research and understand what they’re getting into. It’s important to determine if you are comfortable with the risks. Some investors are, some aren’t.
Gold's short-term trend likely to be down
http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid={D2E4C666-3DF3-48E7-BA2E-4EF8F7AAA1C6}&siteid=nbkh
Gold takes a rest
Commentary: Gold's short-term trend likely to be down
By Mark Hulbert, MarketWatch
Last update: 11:05 p.m. EST Jan. 27, 2009
Comments: 124
ANNANDALE, Va. (MarketWatch) -- Gold certainly deserved a rest Wednesday.
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After all, it had mounted an impressive rally over the previous two weeks, gaining some $100 per ounce. So we can definitely excuse gold bullion (38099902:
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38099902 897.50, +897.50, 0.0%) for forfeiting $9 in Wednesday trading.
The more crucial question, however, is whether the decline was merely the pause that refreshes, or the beginning of a more serious drop.
Unfortunately for those hoping gold's recent rally to continue, the conclusion of contrarian analysis is that the metal's short-term trend is more likely to be down.
Consider the latest readings of the Hulbert Gold Newsletter Sentiment Index (HGNSI), which reflects the average recommended gold-market exposure among a subset of short-term gold-timing newsletters tracked by the Hulbert Financial Digest. As of Tuesday night, the HGNSI stood at 60.9%.
This is identical to where the HGNSI stood at the end of December, when I last devoted a column to gold sentiment. ( Read my Dec. 29 column.)
Over the two weeks following that column, of course, bullion dropped by around $70 an ounce.
Contrarian concern about gold's short-term trend isn't just based on this one data point, however. I have more than 25 years of daily data for the HGNSI, and rigorous econometric tests show that the inverse correlation between HGNSI levels and the gold market's subsequent short-term direction is statistically significant at the 95% confidence level.
This is why the HGNSI's current level is so ominous.
To put it in context, consider that this sentiment gauge's average reading over the last five years has been 32.6%, only slightly more than half where it stands now. Over the last five years, furthermore, the HGNSI has been higher than where it is now just 13% of the time.
This does not mean gold can't go higher from here. But it does suggest that the odds are against it doing so.
Lest I incur undeserved gold-bug wrath by writing that, let me hasten to add that this bearish conclusion applies to just the next several weeks. Sentiment affects the short-term trend of the market, not the long term.
So my conclusion is entirely consistent with gold being in a major, long-term bull market.
But even if it is, the implication of my contrarian analysis is that gold is not ready, at this very moment, to commence on that march upward. End of Story
Looks like DZZ is hammering out a bottom. A decisive close > its 18-day MA turns the short-term trend up IMO...
A Bearish Call on Bullion
By MARK HULBERT
With the gold newsletters so bullish about the yellow metal, it's best to take a pass.
WHEN I LAST WROTE ABOUT gold sentiment for Barron's Online in early August, I pointed out that the editors of gold timing newsletters were quite bullish, and that this in turn didn't bode well for gold bullion's near-term prospects. (See "Beware the Golden Slope of Hope," Aug. 6, 2008.)
This turned out to be one of those times in which contrarian analysis got it very right: By late September, an ounce of the yellow metal was trading for nearly 30% lower than where it stood in mid-July.
Unfortunately for gold, the editors of gold timing newsletters are even more bullish now than they were this summer. In fact, they currently are more bullish than they have been in three and one-half years. Contrarians do not consider this to be a good sign at all.
Consider the latest readings of the Hulbert Gold Newsletter Sentiment Index (HGNSI), which reflects the average recommended gold market exposure among a subset of short-term gold timing newsletters tracked by the Hulbert Financial Digest.
As of Tuesday night of this week, the HGNSI stood at 75.2%.
To put this into perspective, consider that the HGNSI this summer never got higher than 64.3%, even though bullion in July was a lot higher -- within shouting distance of the $1,000 level, in fact.
This is a noteworthy contrast, since the usual pattern is for bullishness to rise and fall with the market itself. But even though gold is some $150 per ounce lower than then, there is markedly more bullishness.
This is not reminiscent of the veritable wall of worry that bull markets like to climb. On the contrary, it appears to be more akin to the slope of hope on which bear markets thrive.
Some of you may object to this analysis on the grounds that contrarian analysis doesn't really work for gold the way it does stocks. After all, isn't gold manipulated by the monetary authorities and therefore not a free market?
This objection potentially is legitimate. However, the proof of the pudding is in the eating: Manipulated or not, the gold market performs better when the HGNSI is lower than when it is higher.
That at least is the conclusion that emerged after I submitted more than two decades of HGNSI data to rigorous econometric tests. The inverse correlation between HGNSI levels and the gold market's direction over the subsequent several months is statistically significant at the 95% confidence level.
This doesn't mean that the gold market isn't manipulated, I hasten to add. More than one factor can influence the market's direction, after all. But the results of my econometric tests do show that government manipulation of the gold market isn't the only factor influencing bullion's price.
Those econometric tests don't amount to a guarantee that gold will now go down, needless to say. But they do suggest that the near-term path of least resistance for gold is down.
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Deutsche Bank (DB) has leapfrogged ProShares in the race to launch leveraged and inverse commodity products in the United States. The company launched three exchange-traded notes linked to the Deutsche Bank Liquid Commodity Index - Optimum Yield Gold. The new ETNs will trade on the NYSE Arca and are:
DB Gold Double Long ETN (DGP)#board-12649
DB Gold Double Short ETN (DZZ)
DB Gold Short ETN (DGZ)
The notes are designed to provide +200%, -200% and -100% of the monthly return of the underlying index, respectively. Importantly, that index is tied to the value of an investment in gold futures, not gold bullion; the two prices do not always track perfectly. Moreover, like all commodity futures products, the notes incorporate the income futures investors would gain from investing their collateral cash in Treasuries. That will add approximately 5% of positive return to each index ... including the short and double short indexes.
Note that the Treasuries return will not be leveraged in the double up or double down funds; only the return of the futures contract will be leveraged.
The fact that the notes are tied to the monthly return of the index is noteworthy. That differs from the way the popular ProShares and Rydex leveraged ETFs work, as those funds are linked to the daily return of their benchmarks. That sounds like a nominal difference, but it is not: Because of the impact of compounding, doubling the monthly return as opposed to the daily return should allow these notes (in most circumstances) to stick closer to the long-term price trends of the underlying index.
An example will explain why. Suppose you have an index starts at 100, rises 20% on day one to 120 and then drops 10% on day two to 108 (10%*120=12). The fund that doubles the daily return would rise to 140 on day one and then drop to 112 on day 2 (10%*140=28). After two days, the fund that doubled the daily return would be up 12%, while the index is up 8%.
If instead you had a fund that doubled the two-day return, it would be up 16%. The longer the interval for each measurement, the closer (in most circumstances) you'll be to doubling the long-term return of an index.
That difference could be important. ProShares has filed papers with the Securities and Exchange Commission to launch leveraged, inverse and inverse-leveraged ETFs tied to various commodities and commodity indexes, including products linked directly to gold bullion; however, it has not received approval to launch these products yet in the U.S. Deutsche Bank appears to have been able to leapfrog ProShares by using the ETN structure, which has a more streamlined approval process than ETFs.
These are the first ETNs launched directly by Deutsche Bank, although it offers a family of commodity exchange-traded funds in partnership with PowerShares. In fact, the impetus for this launch is tied directly to the existing PowerShares funds. Last year, PowerShares and DB tried to convince shareholders in the PowerShares DB Gold ETF (DGL) to switch its mandate from tracking the basic index to doubling its return. That fund had gathered just $55 million in assets, overshadowed by the $19 billion streetTRACK Gold Fund (GLD); investors appear to like the simplicity of direct bullion exposure rather than the futures+interest exposure granted by DGL.
PowerShares and DB thought that doubling the return might attract more investors and help differentiate the fund, but they were unable to gather the necessary votes for a proxy battle, and ultimately they gave up on the idea.
Clearly, Deutsche Bank was working on another approach.
The new notes charge 0.75% in expenses.
http://www.dbfunds.db.com/notes/
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