Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Ad to the virus story, Russia is having a severe drought>>
http://rt.com/Business/2010-07-15/harvest-russia-drought-2010.html
Virulent fungus threatens breadbaskets around the world
Story from world grain that would drive up wheat, especially, but should affect all food prices if the virus spreads.
The story from WorldGrain.com>>>
Tamar Kahn
Virulent fungus threatens breadbaskets around the world
New, resistant strains of wind-borne stem rust - the 'polio of wheat' - have spread from Uganda, writes
LOCAL scientists have found two new strains of a deadly wheat fungus, once thought to be confined to Uganda, here in SA, suggesting crops in many more parts of the world may be vulnerable to the devastating pathogen.
The spread of this fungus would have dramatic consequences for SA, which already does not grow enough wheat to meet demand. On a global level, if wheat crops failed, it would drive up the price of the grain and increase the price of staples, such as bread.
The fungus is stem rust, the polio of wheat. It leaves tell-tale red pustules on the wheat stems, and has destroyed crops since Roman times: a healthy crop close to harvest can be reduced to a shrivelled black mass within weeks. It damages the plant's vascular tissue, robbing it of its capacity to transport nutrients.
The last major rust epidemic occurred in the 1950s and spurred a global initiative led by Nobel laureate Norman Borlaug to develop varieties that could resist the wind-borne fungus Puccinia graminis.
Scientists have hunted for genes that defend wheat against rust and bred them into new varieties, a painstaking process that can take years to come to fruition. One of the key resistance gene clusters identified is called Sr31, which until very recently guaranteed protection against stem rust.
It offered an added bonus, as it increased yields, and seeds with Sr31 were rapidly adopted by farmers around the world.
But like all pathogens, stem rust mutates.
In 1999, a new and extremely virulent strain was discovered in Uganda that was immune to Sr31. It decimated local crops. Wheat rust, once regarded as under control, was back on the global agenda.
This strain, dubbed Ug99, quickly spread to Kenya, Ethiopia, Sudan, Yemen and Iran - and has now arrived in SA.
New and more virulent races are emerging all the time, as recent research by Prof Zak Pretorius, a plant pathologist from the University of the Free State, has shown. Prof Pretorius regularly surveys the rust susceptibility of commercial wheat varieties and the most advanced breeding lines under development by seed companies.
In 2007, he found a strain of rust that was impervious to the resistance gene Sr24. Last year he found a variant that knocked out both Sr24 and Sr31.
Both restrict the rust's growth by triggering the death of cells around the site where the pathogen has invaded the plant.
Prof Pretorius found that half the South African wheat cultivars he surveyed were susceptible to rust in the seedling stage, but cautions this is not likely to be the case with adult plants as many resistance genes only take effect once plants are mature. Work is under way to assess the vulnerability of adult wheat strains, and results are expected in November.
South African farmers do not grow wheat containing Sr31 so scientists are not particularly worried about harvests.
But Prof Pretorius's discovery that Ug99 is evolving with virulence for new combinations of genes is causing concern. "It shows the pathogen is mutating and adapting," he says.
Scientists around the world are racing to identify and isolate new resistance genes, hoping to develop new wheat varieties and get them to farmers faster than Ug99 can spread.
Ironically, it is the bread industry that is partly responsible for SA's relative protection from Ug99, says Dr Cobus le Roux, research institute manager for the Small Grains Institute in Bethlehem.
Wheat containing Sr31, a cluster of genes that originally come from rye, yields a dough that is too sticky for local millers and bakers, he says. Nevertheless, consumers could be affected by the potential spread of Ug99 to other wheat-producing regions, such as the Middle East and south Asia, where farmers grow varieties that will be open to attack unless scientists develop new cultivars impervious to attack before it blows there on the wind.
If their crops fail, global wheat prices will rise - with a consummate increase in the price of staples such as bread.
At present SA cannot grow enough wheat to meet its needs, and imports about 1-million tons of the 2,8-million tons it consumes each year, according to Dr le Roux.
Seed companies are keeping a close eye on developments too. Says Pannar's wheat breeder, Dr Willem Boshoff: "No one wants to release susceptible cultivars."
kahnt@bdfm.co.za
July 13, 2010
http://www.world-grain.com/news/newsfinder.asp?Action=UserDisplayFullDocument&orgId=586&docId=l:1222164911&topicId=14429&start=7&topics=single
It looks like all commodities will have a big day today and the new food rally will continue after just a one day rest.
http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/futboard/current/
GL ALL
I was going to post yesterday that I thought it strange DBA fell yesterday with it's list of most recent holdings going up. Looks like they made up for that today, if the breakout holds.>>>>
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=DBA&p=D&yr=0&mn=3&dy=0&id=p80996362971
GL ALL
The one day DBA chart looks like accumulation as most of the big buys were on the up tick. If you are looking at the chart Friday, you will have to click on the 5 day and it does not show as well on the 5 day. It looks bullish to me>>>
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=DBA&t=1d&l=on&z=m&q=l&c=
GL ALL
I see some positives today, volume was below normal on a disasterous day for the markets. DBA can bounce back quickly when the market stabilizes.
GL ALL
jackal--good luck with those Oats. I don't have the stomach for futures. DBA is made for me, lol.
And they missed me too!!! Did you see what I did with the sticky notes over there??? Oats futures... watching and playing...
I'd be glad to have your pals come to my boards... I can use good help as well. Let me know.
Jack, thanks for the "World Food Crisis" board. I am in that thought frame. I can probably get a couple more posters over there who are anti GM and ground poison(Monsanto).
I feel the Gulf crisis is that catalyst the "New World Order" manipulators will use to rocket food prices as well as oil, etc. First they needed to get the little guy out of food and oil. Did you notice falling oil the first month of the Gulf crisis?
The same thing happened to Gold just after 9/11/01. Gold had been in a 10 year plus bear market and when the twin towers went down gold did not rocket up like the little guy thought it would. But in the aftermath it started going up. Food and oil will do the same, I feel.
http://www.kitco.com/scripts/hist_charts/yearly_graphs.plx
The gulf contrived crisis will drive up seafood, and that will drive up read meat. Cows and Pigs eat grains and grains will go up. Oil is used in all planting and harvesting and all foods get a bump off of that. A hurricane in the south will affect rice crops with the oil picked up. Maybe they plan on using a submarine and blasting another well??? The New World People are evil and ruthless people.
Then you got the US debt. As the dollar falls out of favor, it falls and all world traded commodities go up off that alone. Does anybody think the dollar is going to get stronger, LOL.
I really do believe the big volume on the charts I posted is "The boyz" positioning themselves for a big and steep food run. And, they even have good reason this time. I believe the rice spike in 2008 was a test run. There was NO shortage of rice, it was just hype and people got talked into cleaning our Costco's 50 pound bags, etc.
http://tfc-charts.w2d.com/chart/RI/M
Sorry I got carried away, in other words, I am bullish on DBA, it could be a safe double in the next twelve months. I know that looks impossible for a food ETF, but something is definitely planned and the seeds were planted, by the looks of the volume, BEFORE the gulf crisis. That was a gift to the crooks, but first they had to discourage the little guy. They missed me.
On the right track, there is a food crisis underway:
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/board.aspx?board_id=16715
My bad with the coffee chart>>>>>>>>>>>>
But, the up to date chart shows what can happen with accumulation.>>>
http://tfc-charts.w2d.com/chart/CF/W
I'm in, but??????????????
I sure hope the 50 day moving average holds. I bought because it broke the 50>>>
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=DBA&p=D&yr=0&mn=3&dy=0&id=p84220965583
Also, I bought because food commodities are showing a big uptick in volume the last 3 months, very suspicious. Check out the volume at the bottom of the charts. The below are over 70% of DBA's holdings. I can't figure the volume of Cocao and Coffee drying up, but I do believe all of the listed below are being or have been accumulated. I can't see them falling from here very much in the current world environment and doubt that the volume is distribution. I am gambling that the "big boyz" are positioning themselves for a big rally. I feel the downside potential is nothing compared to the upside potential.
http://tfc-charts.w2d.com/chart/ZW/70
http://tfc-charts.w2d.com/chart/CN/70
http://tfc-charts.w2d.com/chart/CC/70
http://tfc-charts.w2d.com/chart/CF/50
http://tfc-charts.w2d.com/chart/SB/70
http://tfc-charts.w2d.com/chart/SU/70
http://tfc-charts.w2d.com/chart/LH/60
http://tfc-charts.w2d.com/chart/LC/60
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/hl?s=DBA+Holdings
On the move upward after a long fall.
Well, after a big hit, today is a big reversal candle...
No... the weekly chart needs to be viewed and then one will see why... I will post an annotated chart when I am able... the chart is dramatically improving for sure!
Does anyone feel that DBA has broken out?
Still working the i-Box... the waiting is the hardest part, I know!
The Mighty Bean (Soybean, That Is)
By Julian Murdoch
An article covering the recent soybean rally that, among other things, explains how soybean prices have impacted DBA. From Hard Assets Investor (excerpt):
"So how do you get your soybean exposure beyond trading futures? Many agricultural exchange-traded products hold soybeans, but two with the highest holdings are PowerShares DB Ag Fund ETF (DBA) and iPath DJ-AIG Grains ETN (JJG).
As of May 29, the DBA ETF held 24.20% of the fund in soybeans split between two contracts - 15.72% in the Nov. '09 contract and 8.48% in the Jan. '10 contract. For further soy exposure, the fund also held 2.37% in soybean oil. The other commodities the fund holds are corn (23.19%), wheat (19.84%) and sugar (30.395)."
Full article at http://www.hardassetsinvestor.com/features-and-interviews/1/1595-the-mighty-bean-soybean-that-is.html
Think 23 will hold?
What a short-term run we have going here...
Grains Oilseeds thread on Investorshub
http://www.investorshub.com/boards/board.asp?board_id=4925
like the fact that Eric Bolling and Tim Stazzini believe corn limit up again on Tuesday. will double position at open
your comment:
"let's watch and see how the etf behaves for a bit relative to the real world "
so far, has closely tracked the NAV intraday. look at chart to far right which is likely 30minute delay based upon reuters quotes for these 4 commodities :
http://www.dbfunds.db.com/dba/weights.aspx
"Ticker: DBA
Last Update 08-Jan-2007
04:14 PM
Price 24.98
DB Agriculture Index Level* 85.17
Indicative Intra-day
NAV** 24.87
Last end of day
NAV*** "
Really like to track the NAV intraday...
also, broad commodity fund DBC which has been around for 10 months has enjoyed tight bid/ask relationship relative to its NAV
http://www.dbfunds.db.com/dbc/index.aspx
(yes, DBA is less than 3 days old since IPO at $25)
http://www.investorshub.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=16056858
thank you for starting this board
let's watch and see how the etf behaves for a bit relative to the real world and see if it behaves differently than uso http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=uso
chugs, j
Followers
|
21
|
Posters
|
|
Posts (Today)
|
0
|
Posts (Total)
|
80
|
Created
|
01/08/07
|
Type
|
Free
|
Moderators |
DBA - PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund
https://www.invesco.com/portal/site/us/financial-professional/etfs/product-detail?productId=dba
Product Details
The PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund seeks to track changes, whether positive or negative, in the level of the DBIQ Diversified Agriculture Index Excess Return™ (DBIQ Diversified Agriculture Index ER) plus the interest income from the Fund's holdings of primarily US Treasury securities less the Fund's expenses. The Fund is designed for investors who want a cost-effective and convenient way to invest in commodity futures. The Index is a rules-based index composed of futures contracts on some of the most liquid and widely traded agricultural commodities. You cannot invest directly in the Index. The Fund and the Index are rebalanced and reconstituted annually in November. Daily |
| Weekly |
DBA - PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund
Volume | |
Day Range: | |
Bid Price | |
Ask Price | |
Last Trade Time: |