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Venezuela, Keystone, Iran to the rescue!!!!!!!!!!!!
Outlook: Stock futures slowed their descent overnight, hugging the flatline in premarket trade as the Kremlin said it would halt military operations "in a moment" if Kyiv met a list of conditions. Among them are ceasing military action, changing its constitution to enshrine neutrality (eliminate possibility of NATO, EU membership), recognizing separatist republics of Donetsk and Luhansk, and acknowledging Crimea as Russian territory. It's the most specific statement to date from Moscow on the terms it wants to impose on Ukraine, though a likely rejection by the government in Kyiv could lead to renewed market turmoil.
3 weeks ago I picked March seventh as my target for accumulation of ALL short positions (ETF) on CRUDE oil. My max price prediction $115.00 was blown out of the window.
London Bullion Market Association (LBMA) is now an untrustworthy organization.
Suggest PSLV and watch your Eurozone currency exposure, Fiat go poof! Not sure on your other one. It's chart has a flat line going across it for 5 years and priced in pounds.
Maybe pick a South American currency that has food production to hide in.
It doesn't matter, we already passed the point of no return on the recession! Powell doesn't have to do a thing the correction is already baked in. He just needs to be ready with a large sum of cash!
Analysts Warn Of $150 Oil If The West Bans Russian Crude
By Tsvetana Paraskova - Mar 05, 2022, 6:00 PM CST
The United States and the European Union have been reluctant to slap sanctions on Russia's oil and gas exports since Putin invaded Ukraine, as the Western allies are concerned about the repercussions on Europe's energy supply and skyrocketing oil and gasoline prices.
Still, potential sanctions on Russian energy exports are not off the table. If the West bans Russian oil, international crude prices could skyrocket to $150 per barrel, analysts say.
But even in the event of no sanctions on Russian oil, prices are set to remain very high and jump higher still because buyers and refiners are in a "self-sanctioning" mode, not daring to touch Russian crude and looking for alternative supplies. The possibility of an Iranian nuclear deal that would allow Iran to legitimately return to exporting its oil is a potential drag on oil prices, but barrels from the Islamic Republic cannot replace the loss of Russian oil, analysts say.
"While some remain transfixed with the idea that an Iran agreement will provide much needed relief (from rising oil prices), we again caution that the deal is still not done and the sums entailed would simply be too small to backfill a major Russian disruption," RBC Capital analyst Helima Croft wrote in a note cited by Reuters on Thursday.
There is already disruption in Russian oil exports as Moscow meets mounting challenges in selling its seaborne crude and oil products, with traders, refiners, banks, insurers, and tanker owners unwilling to touch anything coming out of Russia.
Russia's invasion of Ukraine was met with a severe sanctions response from the U.S., the EU, and the UK. The Western allies kicked several Russian banks out of the international SWIFT system, and although direct sanctions on Russia's oil and gas are not (yet) implemented, trade in Russian commodities has become toxic for many global players.
"Because of the banking sanctions we've estimated about 70% of Russian crude oil exports can't be touched. That's about 3.8 million bpd," Amrita Sen, Director of Research at Energy Aspects, told CNBC on Wednesday.
Russia's crude and refined product exports have dropped by one-third, or by 2.5 million bpd, this week, according to estimates from Energy Intelligence based on shipping data and interviews with traders.
Oil market participants have started to realize that a lot of Russian oil could be off the market in the near future—even if the West doesn't impose direct sanctions on Russian oil—adding to the already tight market balances.
The oil market seems to believe that sanctions on Russian oil are coming, John Kilduff, partner at Again Capital, told CNBC this week.
"These are barrels that we cannot make up, so that's why this market is on tenterhooks," Kilduff said.
Sanctions on oil from Russia—which exports around 5 million bpd of crude and 2.8 million bpd of refined products—would have a much bigger effect on market balances compared to the sanctions on Iran and Venezuela of the previous years, analysts say.
Yet, even without direct sanctions, buyers have started to "self-sanction" themselves, as analysts say.
Refiners have started to replace Russian crude. Some of the biggest U.S. importers of Russian crude oil have started suspending their purchases of the commodity, including Monroe Energy, the third-biggest U.S. buyer of Russian oil.
Neste of Finland said on Tuesday, "Due to the current situation and the uncertainty in the market, Neste has mostly replaced Russian crude oil with other crudes, such as North Sea oil." Neste is preparing "for various options in procurement, production and logistics."
On Wednesday, Portugal's energy group Galp said that it was suspending all new purchases of petroleum products either sourced in Russia or from Russian companies.
"Our decision is simple: Galp will not contribute to finance war," the company said.
Meanwhile, in Russia, Surgutneftegaz hasn't been able to award spot cargoes in three consecutive tenders over the past week, as no one is bidding even at the huge discounts of the Urals grade to Dated Brent.
Russian oil flows are already disrupted by the existing sanctions and even if direct sanctions on oil don't follow, the market will struggle to replace barrels already lost to "self-sanctioning," even if Iran returns to exporting crude soon.
Dissolved, closed, etc. It happens to penny stock priced ETFs unless they decide to reverse split. If CRUDE goes to $150 these 2 funds with either be shut down or R/S.
Direxion to Close and Liquidate RUSL February 28, 2022 Download (PDF) NEW YORK—February 28, 2022— Due to the increased market volatility, and restrictions on Russian securities resulting from sanctions and other measures imposed on Russia by the United States and other countries in response to its invasion of Ukraine, the Board of Trustees (the “Board”) of the Direxion Shares ETF Trust has decided to liquidate and close the Direxion Daily Russia Bull 2X Shares (the “Fund”), based on the recommendation of the Funds’ adviser, Rafferty Asset Management, LLC (“Rafferty”). The Board determined, after considering Rafferty’s recommendation, that it is in the best interests of the Fund and its shareholders to liquidate and terminate the Fund, as it could not conduct its business and operations in an economically efficient manner over the long-term.
Over in oil markets, WTI crude touched as high as $116 a barrel. That could be music to OPEC+'s ears, especially key member Russia, which has been facing escalating sanctions. A high-profile meeting of the alliance yesterday saw producers leave plans in for raising collective oil output by 400K bpd in April, with no suggestion of additional increases. Remember, it wasn't easy to bring Russia back into the group during the pandemic, when a disagreement with kingpin Saudi Arabia turned into an oil price war. Crude is now up over 50% YTD, a massive increase, given that we are only two months into the year.
The Russian foreign minister, Sergei Lavrov, has said he believes some foreign leaders are preparing for war against Russia and that Moscow would press on with its military operation in Ukraine until “the end”.
Lavrov also said Russia had no thoughts of nuclear war, according to a Reuters report.
Offering no evidence to back up his remarks in an interview with state television, a week after Russia invaded Ukraine, he also accused the Ukrainian president, Volodymyr Zelenskiy, an ethnic Jew, of presiding over “a society where Nazism is flourishing”.
He said he had no doubt that a solution to the crisis in Ukraine would be found, and a new round of talks were about to start between Ukrainian and Russian officials.
But he said Russia’s dialogue with the west must be based on mutual respect, accused Nato of seeking to maintain supremacy and said that while Russia had a lot of good will, it could not let anyone undermine its interests.
He should probably drop rates further and bring it under 2%. Ag should do well this year in his country if he can avoid getting mixed up in his neighbors dispute.
John, you've been pretty much on target with your price predictions and dates. Crude oil might continue to rise, though....really hard to say. These are unusual times, for sure.
Ukraine-Russia war: What if Trump and Netanyahu were still in power? - analysis
Some believe it would be different; as if the world was humming along in perfect harmony when Trump and Netanyahu were leading their countries. By HERB KEINON
Published: FEBRUARY 28, 2022 21:08
“If I were in office, this deadly Ukraine situation would never have happened!” former US president Donald Trump said last week in a statement after Russia invaded Ukraine. And many Americans believe him. According to a Harvard Center for American Political Studies-Harris Poll survey released Friday, 62% of those polled believed Putin would not have sent Russian tanks into Ukraine if Trump had won the 2020 elections.
In Israel, though no polling is available, some supporters of former prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu are pining for his leadership during this crisis. Former IDF spokesman Ronen Manelis, who was director-general of the Strategic Affairs Ministry from 2020-2021, suggested that Prime Minister Naftali Bennett appoint Netanyahu – who is doing everything in his power to undermine the Bennett government – as special envoy to the Russia-Ukraine negotiations.
And Likud MK Galit Distal Atbaryana, one of the most fervent Netanyahu supporters in the Knesset who has mocked Bennett’s offers to mediate in the crisis, tweeted soon after the Russian invasion that Foreign Minister Yair Lapid’s foreign policy was based on a combination of “John Lennon’s [song] ‘Imagine’ and fortune cookies.” By contrast, she said, Netanyahu’s worldview “was based on the painful realization that everything starts and ends with interests, money, strength and a balance of terror. In a correct world, Netanyahu would be at the wheel and Lapid would be writing catchy pop songs for Rita, something he wasn’t all that bad at.”
In other words, both in the US and in Israel some believe that if only the leaders that were in power two years ago were still in power today, everything would look different; as if the world was humming along in perfect harmony when Trump and Netanyahu were leading their countries. John Bolton, who was Trump’s national security advisor for some 18 months in 2018-2019 and left the job on very bad terms – penning a memoir shortly afterward slamming Trump – doesn’t think so. In an interview with an Indian television program just before the Russian invasion, Bolton said that if Trump had won reelection, “Russian troops would be in Kyiv already.” Not, he said, because of any understanding between the two men – critics said they were overly cozy – but “because I think Trump had no understanding, no realization, of what the loss of Ukraine to Russian control would have for the security of Europe. He was more concerned about finding Hillary Clinton’s computer server. He was more concerned about the allegations that Joe Biden’s son was making money off the Ukrainians, and this web of conspiracy theories.” According to Bolton, Trump – who boasted how this current war would never have happened under his leadership – “badly damaged Ukrainian-US relations, and I think that were he elected, Putin would have seen the opportunity right there to fracture NATO. The problem is that Biden’s response is not as weak as Trump’s might have been, but I don’t think it is adequate.” It is worth recalling when hearing voices declaring that Trump would have been much tougher than Biden on Russia, and would have taken stronger actions to defend Ukraine, that the former president was impeached in 2019, though not convicted, for allegedly withholding nearly $400 million in military aid from Ukraine – which was trying to prepare precisely for the eventuality that has now unfolded – unless the Ukrainians investigated his political rivals, including Biden. Bolton takes issue with those conservative pundits who say that Trump projected a stronger image and that, for Putin, Biden’s chaotic withdrawal from Afghanistan was the equivalent of waving red meat in front of a hungry lion. “I don’t think he was stronger,” Bolton said of Trump. “I think he was more blustery than Biden, but I think Trump made very clear he wanted out of Afghanistan. It is easier to say – as he has said – that he would have done [the Afghanistan withdrawal] better, but I think the withdrawal would have looked almost as catastrophic. The strategic point would have been the same: An American withdrawal, whether executed well or executed poorly, was a strategic mistake.”
Moreover, during his four years in office, Trump played to the isolationist strain in American politics, pledging to end America’s involvement in “ridiculous endless foreign wars.” Trump fanned the sentiment of Americans not fighting other people’s war – though he by no means created that sentiment – and now that sentiment can be felt in a CNN poll Monday showing that five days into the Russian invasion, US public opinion is against American troop involvement. Although Americans overwhelmingly favor increased sanctions against Russia, by a 58% to 42% margin they oppose direct military action even if the sanctions do not work. Trump had something to do with fostering the idea that the US does not have to be the world’s policeman. The only problem with the sentiment that the US does not need to act as the world’s policeman is that less savory actors will take advantage of an unpoliced world. Regarding Netanyahu, it is also unrealistic to believe that were the former prime minister still in power, Israel’s policies regarding this conflict would be significantly different. Israel would still be walking a tightrope between Russia and the US; on the one hand trying to avoid antagonizing the Russians, thereby complicating relations with a country on Israel’s northern doorstep with the ability to significantly complicate Israel’s ability to operate in Syrian and Lebanese airspace against Iranian assets; and on the other hand, being firmly in the camp of the Western liberal democracies decrying Putin’s naked aggression. Yes, Netanyahu might have had a good relationship with Putin, but that doesn’t mean he would have been able to mediate between his friend and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky or convince Putin of the folly of a Ukrainian invasion. It’s one thing to get Putin to release Naama Issachar, the Israeli woman arrested in Moscow after 10 grams of hashish were found in her suitcase, and quite another to free Ukraine. Furthermore, while Netanyahu and his allies often boasted of the former premier’s close ties with Putin, alongside with his close ties to Trump, many in Washington’s foreign policy establishment were not exactly enamored of that relationship. While today there is a degree of understanding in Washington as to why Israel is not taking a more forceful position regarding Russia, were Netanyahu – seen by many in the US capital as too close with Putin and other authoritative leaders – still in power, this might not necessarily have been the case. Were Netanyahu in power, there would be those in the US capital interpreting Israel’s soft position in this conflict not as a desire to avoid antagonizing an important state that could cause enormous problems for Israel, but rather the product of that close relationship between Netanyahu and Putin. Were Netanyahu in power, there would be those who would be pointing to that relationship and saying that when it comes to Russia in Ukraine, Israel is guilty by association.
“Canada will continue to deliver support for Ukraine’s heroic defense against the Russian military,” he said, according to Reuters. “We are announcing our intention to ban all imports of crude oil from Russia, an industry that has benefited President Putin and his oligarchs greatly.”
At a news conference held by Vasily Nebenzya, Russia’s ambassador to the U.N., Nebenzya took a phone call and confirmed shortly afterwards that 12 diplomats had been declared “persona non grata” by US authorities and instructed to leave by March 7th, according to the New York Times.
Nebenzya called the expulsion of Russian diplomats a “gross violation” of the US’s position as the UN host country.
“There are a lot of countries that understand what the Russian position is and what it is doing and why,” said Nebenzya.
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