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Could be accumulators manipulating price from going too high as they add shares.
There seems to be some accumulation going prior to next week. Trading within a range to reduce the cost basis. This range will become the support going forward. It should move upward soon when the accumulatosr either are done or when they can not control it anymore.
If THEY are the volume then they will control it. That's my take.
IMO there is perhaps significant short selling going on. The daily chart pattern for the past 5 or so days is a surge in s/p at opening, followed by selling around 10:00, which brings the s/p down to a loss for the day. Then around 12:0 through 2:00 ,demand enters and pushes the s/p back up to usually a small gain. Thought he shorts have not been powerful enough to cause the s/p to decline significantly, they are keeping the s/p from advancing in an upward surge. Anyone else notice this?
News will foil the shorts and any attempt to cover will empower the upward move in s/sp. If you are long and a believer do what the Reddit gang did.
$CVLB
Revenues from ShapiroMD:
2017(~7.5Mo) $3.68M
2018 $7.94M
51% of PDF Simpli bought in June 2018.
"PDF Simpli is a powerful source of liquidity as well as digital marketing and knowledge capital for Conversion Labs"
2019 $9.02M
2020 (9Mo) $13.54
"Conversion Labs’ highly- scalable technology platform combined with its professionals with deep expertise creates for a winning combination."
ShapiroMD was introduce in the 2ndQ of 2017 (Only 7.5Mo that year). So I estimate that it made close to $6.00M ARR that year in a couple of Billion TAM.
The brand did not have 250,000 subscribers like today for introduction.
It did not have a TM platform VeritasMD either.
Nor a 400 seats call center and all the new top quality hires.
So I am expecting between $7.5-
$10M
from NavaMD in revenue contribution this year.
And $10.0-$15 from LifeMD.
This is all "on top of" previous projections of $75-100M. And these estimates could end up being conservative.
CVLB can very well repeat the 205% Annual GR this year. Imagine the valuation of such a stock next year.
i still have almost 50,000 shares that are restricted
Video Q&A:
ARR and retention growing and much improved.
Much more cross selling and multiple sales due to massive call center with more than 100 positions.
Telehealth is a major advantage for retention and to drive multiple sales.
2021 will be a huge year.
Company has been extremely efficient and effective vs. competitors in use of growth capital. (Thus the spectacular balance sheet and O/S share count)
So much to like about the company!!!
Sounds great ! Good for you and Enjoy
I am holding slightly more than a tenth of what you have left. Still a decent return
I sent you a private message but as you suspect I never have to work again.
You retire yet ?$$$
Nice start after a nice pre market gain, then the sellers/(shorts?) entered. With the Q&A release tonight and the recent excellent news, shorts are in danger land. I can't imagine why position traders would not wait to cash in until after the Q&A.
I can see $250 by 2/28/22
$CVLB ( From Corey Deutsch) for today's Q&A
here is what I have so far, feel free to add in the comments below if i missed anything:
How is CVLB differentiated and thoughtful in its approach?
Is NavaMD still a Q1 event?
How does the transition of the business model in the ShapiroMD brand affect it’s current ARR
Explain the scalability capabilities of VeritasMD
It seems to me like LifeMD was launched ahead of schedule. Why?
@CVLBCorpDev
Bullish
Bearish
Can you disclose estimated LTV and CAC for Rex MD and Shapiro MD? And churn / retention metrics? Or provide a ballpark sense for where these lie?
What happened with SOS Rx? No mentions of it anymore
What will the business model for Life MD / Veritas MD be? And what are the fixed overhead costs involved in operating the platform?
Will you guys be developing and launching mobile apps for your telehealth services in the future? it looks like
$HIMS
,
$TDOC
, etc. already have applications in the app store with thousands of reviews... how do you plan to compete and differentiate yourselves from already established players in the market?
CVLBCorpDev
I'm interested in corporate governance and how the BOD contributes to keeping a tight ship and not pursuing top-line growth and market share at the risk of letting expenses or the need for further raises get out of control
Do they currently have any plans to expand into multiple geographies?
Run rate increase and not "spend increase" is especially relevant for a fast-growing company like Conversion. Does Justin/BOD have limits in place on the amount by which they are willing to increase what they are spending without jeopardizing increased run rate?
You think they would have secured the website already ?!
https://www.godaddy.com/domain-auctions/lifemd-com-299533540
$CVLB
@CVLBCorpDev My questions:
1. Is NavaMD still a Q1 event?
2. How does the transition of the business model in the ShapiroMD brand affect it’s current ARR?
3. Explain the scalability capabilities of VeritasMD.
4. It seems to me like LifeMD was launched ahead of schedule. Why?
Thanks
@Alex1965 very strong and thoughtful questions.
We'll see what he decided to answer tomorrow. I feel that there are certain topics that are over his head but let's see what comes out of this.
I already sent him a couple of questions. I'll try to post them here in a few minutes. I am not sure if he will add them in the list but he found them thoughtful. I used the stockwits board. With 1,546 followers already. When I joined last December 16 I was number 406 or 405.
That's over 500 per month. I was checking Good Dr and Ontrak and they both have over 4K followers.
The last 1,000 CVLB followers joined in the last few weeks. It has sped up recently.
$CVLB
For the LSS segment: (82.6 - 51) / 51 = 61.9% of an $18M ARR and fast growing business and the CEO only paid $350K for this extra piece of the business and $750 to $850 for the first 51%.
61.9% is the total increase that was just signed. The total ownership is 82.6% of Legal Simpli Software (LSS).
82.6% of an $18M ARR is $14.87 as of last December.
CVLB currently controls 72% of LSS since January 22. The other 10.6% will become accretive on the 22 of May.
That would be a 205% YoY GR back to back. I have been thinking about that a lot. I wonder about the kind of valuation multiple LFMD could get next February 2022 after the market confirms such an incredible growth power.
ShapiroMD just got transformed into a subscribers base business model. Imagine all the recurring contribution for the upcoming years, specially with the new patented line of products for women. Did you know that women customers represent 80% of the revenue?
The LSS revenue just got increased by 61.9%. Just like that, no need to go through all the process to invent and get a new brand going. And this SaaS vertical is very successful and worth a lot more than the market cares to value. The Market will find out in a few quarters.
For the LSS segment: (82.6 - 51) / 51 = 61.9% of a $18M ARR and fast growing business and the CEO only paid $350K for this extra piece of the business and $750 to $850 for the first 51%.
This is the kind of deals that I am getting used to seeing from Justin Schreiber, CVLB's CEO.
And there are so many other smaller things that when put together they build the foundation of this year's expected growth.
I wasn't expecting the LifeMD brand so soon either and with a $260B TAM. This PR was just fabulous.
CVVLB IR program is spectacular. More eyeballs and increased holdings coming.
Great work. Very reasonable estimate. Add in new product increases and we will hit $120mm for 2021
Great opportunity to have Corey Deutsch answer diligence / business questions
Please submit your questions here for our upcoming Investor Q&A. $CVLB $LFMD #telehealth pic.twitter.com/vAbq0AsbPG
— LifeMD (@LifeMD) February 14, 2021
Please submit your questions here for our upcoming Investor Q&A. $CVLB $LFMD #telehealth pic.twitter.com/vAbq0AsbPG
— LifeMD (@LifeMD) February 14, 2021
$CVLB
I have ran my numbers several times and I am estimating between $18 and $18.5m ($18.25 Midpoint) for Q1'21 which puts it in line with a $90.00-$105.00M for the year. This is only the current brands without the revenue contribution of the new ones NavaMD & LifeMD.
Reasons for the the step increase are the following:
1. The straight Q1 sequential increase of around $2.8-3M
2. $1.01M from the additional 22% of LSS revenue which started on Jan22. Numbers ran by percentages of days.
3. An increase in the call center seats by the end of the quarter.
4. Shapiro business model got improved into a subscription model.
5. Conversion efficiencies by VeritasMD and some savings.
6. New products in the RexMD brand and cross selling.
7. Ramp up in the sales & marketing spend with new cash.
I’ve received LIFE MD emails already ...
“How Doctors Are Treating COVID-19 Long-Term Effects; Health Disparities and Caring for the Underserve?d?; Why This Critical Care Doctor Got the COVID-19 Vaccine; and More” ...
Agree 100%. JUstin is not giving big discounts either for financiers or new hires. He knows what he is doing and has a network that is exceptional. With the company's demonstrated consistent outsized growth rate, its ability to add new product lines w/i VeritasMD, its ease of raising growth capital and now the new Telemedicine focus Justin will be able to pick and choose new product licenses from small Pharma companies with great products and limited marketing ability. Price targets are ramping up IMO.
What’s the new symbol ? LFMD ???
They had 1H in the Corp. presentation for launching LifeMd so this comes as a great surprise for me and hugely material going forward. Longs can start to relax and enjoy the journey which is going t be a LONG one. Greatl new developments.
The name change was coming for obvious reasons. I was betting on VeritasMD. If they chose that name is because this new service brand is expected to be the biggest income generator down the road. It’s a $260 TAM business sector.
And it's launch date makes it accretive in Q1 which could guarantee the $100M in revenues (at least) for FY2021.
This is hugely material my friend. This PR is one of many catalysts that we were talking about before.
And only about a 2.6% dilution @ $23.00 per share. Most companies dilute like that with nothing to show for.
This means that Justin is waiting for the stock to get higher to get what he wants. A Non-dilutive financing deal @ very good terms. Very Smart.
Now we know that Justin, the CEO wants the best for ALL shareholders like himself. Yes, the deal was probably done last week Friday when the price was still between $20 and $24. So he is NOT giving any discounts anymore.
When the stock gets to $65.00 he can make another small round if he needs money until the BIG banks lend us the big money we need. They (The BIG BANKS) are going to be left outside if they don’t act soon.
And more institutional shares , more stability for the stock price.
This is the right way to go public. No SPACs or IPO. Easy does it.
Being in such a thriving sector of the health industry (Worth $4T), a PR like this last one with a $260B TAM, the ongoing and projected YoY growth (now being confirmed) and many more news like this coming this year, LONGs are really going to be LONGs. And the float is small. CVLB is a LONGs heaven! where your investment can relax, take a break and grow fast at the same time.
$CVLB May have been lost in the shuffle of the small raise and name change but...
— Ophir Gottlieb (@OphirGottlieb) February 12, 2021
Buyers in Sep:
* David S. Blitzer Global Head of Blackstone’s Tactical Opportunities
* Wesley Eden Chairman/Founder Fortress
Links in today's PR go to those names.
(Appear to be buyers again) pic.twitter.com/95yCtao4ap
Thanks for posting.
This takes CVLB or LFMD to a new level of Virtual Concierge Medicine and reflects the pioneering views of recent additions to the Medical Team. This new development will further tie patients to the company, fuel building ARR, and accommodate multiple revenue opportunities with patients. The private placement of $14 mm supports massive future growth.
Time to adjust future price target!
Today's profit taking by S-T traders is setting a more solid base for the next leg up next week. buyers taking the offered shares will not be selling any time soon and the ride continues next week.
We hit $32.97 around 1:00. Strong volume today.
CVLB is at $29.50 pre-market trading this a.m. With the normal opening surge we should hit $32.
Pre-Market Volume 14,279
Pre-Market High $33.29
Pre-Market Low $28.00
In pre-market trading we hit $30.97. Now $29.76. Should be another good day.
Strong balance sheet especially for developing company. The cash position says marketing power. Current ratio says highly bankable for additional non-dilutive financing.
$CVLB Condensed Consolidated Balance Sheet
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/948320/000149315220021846/ex99-1.htm
Justin built a solid foundation. He is not just about ripping new sales, but has set up a growth sustaining organization. The stable of social media marketers, the state of the art customer service installation, and Veritas front to back integrated operating module all accommodate rapid and sticky growth and launch of new product lines. Justin has an institutional focus, not simply a growth focus.
Analyst is using $70 mm estimate. It has been informally indicated at $100 mm. $45 to $50 is about right
The street still doesn’t know what CVLB’s VeritasMD has under the hood. But they will find out in due time. That’s for sure.
The current ARR from Dec revenue of about $5.06M is $60.7. So $70M for 2021 is very short from an accurate estimate. And the subscribers ARR is $26M and growing at a 523% YoY rate. That price target of $35 will be over run with any material PR. We will hit $35.00 before Spring.
$35 is warmer, should be in the $50’s based on expected 2021 revenues
Referring to my last post, the short sellers must be concerned by the B. Riley BUY and $35 price target. They are working hard this a.m. to keep the price from getting away from them but not too successfully. Despite B. Riley's ( by the way a very respected and growing firm) endorsement, they are still light on 2021 estimated sales at $70 mm. Justin's informal estimate is higher so we will blow through $35 the same way we blew through $15.
https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2021/02/05/2170711/0/en/Conversion-Labs-Appoints-Seasoned-Financial-and-Operational-Executive-Marc-Benathen-as-Chief-Financial-Officer.html
Fresh PR and a fresh $35 price target by B. Riley
$CVLB B. Riley initiates with a $35 price target.
— Ophir Gottlieb (@OphirGottlieb) February 5, 2021
This is now the company’s second analyst of record.
Very good to see.
Long calls.
Long call spreads.
Short puts.
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