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Crisis of the Third Century
14th century banking crisis (the crash of the Peruzzi and the Bardi family Compagnia dei Bardi in 1345)
17th century Tulip mania
18th century
South Sea Bubble (1720) (UK)
Mississippi Company (1720) (France)
Crisis of 1763 - started in Amsterdam, begun by the collapse of Leendert Pieter de Neufville, spread to Germany and Scandinavia
Crisis of 1772 - started in London and Amsterdam, begun by the collapse of the bankers Neal, James, Fordyce and Down.
Panic of 1785 - United States
Panic of 1792 - United States
Panic of 1796-1797 - Britain and United States
19th century
Danish state bankruptcy of 1813
Post-Napoleonic depression (post 1815)
Panic of 1819, a U.S. recession with bank failures; culmination of U.S.'s first boom-to-bust economic cycle
Panic of 1825, a pervasive British recession in which many banks failed, nearly including the Bank of England
Panic of 1837, a U.S. recession with bank failures, followed by a 5-year depression
Panic of 1847, started as a collapse of British financial markets associated with the end of the 1840s railway industry boom
Panic of 1857, a U.S. recession with bank failures
Panic of 1866, was an international financial downturn that accompanied the failure of Overend, Gurney and Company in London
Long Depression (1873–1896)
Panic of 1873, a US recession with bank failures, followed by a four-year depression
Panic of 1884
Panic of 1890
Panic of 1893, a US recession with bank failures
Australian banking crisis of 1893
Panic of 1896
United States presidential assassination attempts and plots
Panic of 1901, a U.S. economic recession that started a fight for financial control of the Northern Pacific Railway
Panic of 1907, a U.S. economic recession with bank failures
The imperial crisis 1914 to 1918, the First World War
The Russian Revolution and communism Russian Revolution of 1917
1923 – Hyperinflation in the Weimar Republic
Wall Street Crash of 1929 and Great Depression (1929–1939) the worst depression of modern history
The rise of dictatorship power of Benito Mussolini in 1922 / Adolf Hitler came to power in Germany in 1933
Global war: World War II (1939–1945)
The war in the Pacific / Japanese Combined Fleets by Admiral Isoroku Yamamoto
Attack on Pearl Harbor, December 1941
The Holocaust
The Nuclear Age begins
the Nuremberg Trials
the Tokyo War Crime Trial
The Cold War (1947–1991)
Korean War, Vietnam War and Cuban Missile Crisis
the Space Race
Great Inflation Of The 1970s
1970s energy crisis
1973 – oil crisis
Secondary banking crisis of 1973–1975 in the UK
Early 1980s Recession
HIV/AIDS
Bank stock crisis (Israel 1983)
Japanese asset price bubble (1986–2003)
1986-1995 – Savings and loan crisis
Black Monday (1987)
1987 – Texaco bankruptcy
1988 – Financial Corp of America
Early 1990s Recession
1991 India economic crisis
Finnish banking crisis (1990s)
Swedish banking crisis (1990s)
1991 – Bank of New England bankruptcy
1994 economic crisis in Mexico
1994 – Continental Illinois National Bank and Trust Company collapse
1997 – Asian financial crisis
1998 – Russian financial crisis
1998–2002 – The Second Congo War
Argentine economic crisis (1999–2002)
Early 2000s recession
Dot-com bubble
2001 – Al-Qaeda terrorists hijacked four commercial airliners and crashed two of them into the World Trade Center
2001 – Enron, Pacific Gas & Electric Co bankruptcy
2002 – WorldCom, Conseco, MF Global, Global Crossing bankruptcy
2003 – Space Shuttle Columbia disaster February 1.
2003 – Severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) spreads around the globe.
2003–present – In February 2003, a conflict in Darfur, Sudan, began and soon escalated into full-scale war
2003–2010 – The U.S.-led coalition invaded Iraq on March 20, 2003
2003–2005 – A series of nonviolent revolutions known as the colour revolutions overthrew governments in Georgia, Ukraine, Kyrgyzstan, and Lebanon
2004 – Asian Tsunami – On December 26, 2004, a massive undersea earthquake resulted in a massive tsunami striking southeast Asia killing approximately 230,000
2005 – Hurricane Katrina
2005 – Refco, Calpine bankruptcy
2006 – North Korea conducted its first nuclear test on October 9
Global warming, Climate change
2007 – A civil war escalated in the Gaza Strip
2007 – Financial crisis of 2007–08 Great Recession, Subprime mortgage crisis
2008–2012 Icelandic financial crisis
2008–2010 Irish banking crisis
Russian financial crisis of 2008–2009
Automotive industry crisis of 2008–2010
2008 – Armed conflict broke out in August 2008 between Georgia on one side, and the Russian Federation
2008 – Lehman Brothers Holdings, IndyMac Bancorp, Washington Mutual bankruptcy
European sovereign debt crisis
2009 – General Motors, Chrysler, CIT Group, Thornburg Mortgage, General Growth Properties, Lyondell Chemical bankruptcy
2009 – Influenza A virus subtype H1N1 spreads around the globe
2010 – The birth of the Arab Spring
2010 – April 20 an explosion on the Deepwater Horizon offshore drilling rig
Flash crashes
May 6, 2010, Flash Crash
April 23, 2013, Flash Crash
2010 – Haiti earthquake – At least 230,000 are killed in Haiti after a massive earthquake on January 12, 2010. As of late February 2010, the death toll is expected to rise. Three million people were made homeless
2011 – Norway is the victim of twin terror attacks
2011 – The shutdown of the largest UK tabloid News of the World after 168 years in print due to the 2009 phone hacking scandal
2012 – October 24 – 30 Hurricane Sandy – kills at least 185 people in the Caribbean, Bahamas, United States and Canada. Considerable storm surge damage causes major disruption to the eastern seaboard of the United States
2013 – Rebels seize power in Central African Republic ousting the President and government
2013 – Syria avoids an American intervention on its soil during the Syrian Civil War
2014 Russian financial crisis
2014 – Ukrainian president Viktor Yanukovic is ousted amidst riots
2014 – In Syria, amidst the rampant civil war, the terrorist group Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant rises and seizes territories in northern Iraq and Syria
2014 – Israel, in the hardest conflict to date, conducts airstrikes on the Gaza strip
2014 – Ebola virus spreads in Western Africa, prompting the largest ever epidemic, with more than 20,000 cases
On-Balance Volume
On-Balance Volume (OBV) is an indicator designed by Joseph GranviUe and described in his book, New Strategy of Daily Stock Market Timing.Granville used OBV as a leading indicator of the stock market, but other analysts have applied it to the futures markets.
OBV is a running total of volume. It rises or falls each day, depending on whether prices close higher or lower than on the previous day. When a stock closes higher, it shows that bulls won the day's battle; its volume on that day is added to OBV. When a stock closes lower, it shows that bears won the day, and that day's volume is subtracted from OBV. If prices close unchanged, OBV stays unchanged.
On-Balance Volume often rises or falls before prices - it acts as a leading indicator. As Granville put it, "Volume is the steam that makes the choo- choo go."
DARK, SOMBER, FANTASTIC MOMENTS IN WALL STREET HISTORY:
March 14, 1907: The San Francisco earthquake (foreshadowing Fukushima?) set the stage for the crash of 1907. The Dow lost more than 8%, closing at 76.23. A combination of inflated interest rates and land values fueled the panic of 1907.
October 24, 1929: On Black Thursday NYSE shares plummeted. Panic prevailed and $5 billion evaporated as 13 million shares traded. This meltdown “began” the Great Depression which lasted until World War II.
October 28, 1929: The Dow fell 13%, a record loss. The modicum of confidence that glimmered the week before was gone.
October 29, 1929: Black Tuesday! Confidence tumbled. The ticker tape lagged by nearly two hours. 16 million shares were traded, a record which held for 40 years. The Dow finished with a 12% loss.
July 8, 1932: The Dow closed at 42.22, an 89% drop from its peak. Confidence was dealt a new, low blow. The “New Deal” was about to be launched.
October 19, 1987: The Dow fell 22% (508 points). Hong Kong fell 45.5%. Australia fell 41.8%. Spain fell 26.5%/ Britain fell 26.5%, and so forth and so on.
September 17, 2001: After a four-day closure triggered by the 9/11 attacks, stocks plunged to three-year lows, nearly 7%.
February 27, 2007: Known as the “Chinese Correction,” the SSE Composite Index of the Shanghai Stock Exchange fell 9% triggering major drops in world markets.
September 15, 2008: The fall of Lehman Brothers (with more than $600 billion in assets) became etched as the largest bankruptcy in American history together with the “fire sale” of Merrill Lynch (the country’s largest brokerage firm) culminating in a 504 point loss in the Dow. And! AIG was “provided” with an $85 billion credit line by the United States government. Quite a day.
September 29, 2008: The Dow dropped 400 points in ten minutes; more than $1.2 trillion evaporates from the market. The House of Representatives was just not going to pass Bush’s $700 million bailout for financial institutions. “Six of one, half a dozen of another.”
May 6, 2010: The flash crash. The DOW drops nearly 1,000 points in intra-day trading before partially recovering.
And the hits just keep rolling along…
Indeed, we do live in a money-mad world.
Bull Market Characteristics
7/28/07 at 08:24 PM
u must remember that all giant advances are preceded by ugly declines...the uglier the decline and the heavier the volume the larger advance to come.....all sharp declines are conducted for purposes of exchange insider accumulations and or short covering.....wave 2 corrections are invariably ugly enuf to get most convinced that the bull market is over......
one of the finest sentiment tools for important bottoms is how many of timer digest top ten timers turn bearish........9 or 10 is rare and always has occurred at important bottoms as of saturday's report only 4 are bearish....another week of this may see this number expand......which would coincide with the offsets.....
1438 in the sept S&P is important support.....if the Dow opens down on monday it appears there will be a lot of buyers but me thinks they will be disappointed....sharp declines or just failing rallies goes along way in improving sentiment....i had indicated many months ago that the epicenter of primary wave 3 up would follow a wave 2 pullback after 5 waves up.....and was sure that the advance was the first wave up of that larger move and that after 5 waves up the subsequent pullback would bring on the end of the world EW contingent declaring an end to the bull market.......
i would think that august 26 ...(bradley day) may be the focal point for this wave 2 correction.....thus the current correction may take on a an ABC form into august 26 or as in 1987 a 4/5 subdivision will occur......my guess is a 4.5 subdivision which if it unfolds that way will keep the ewavers bearish on the first 1.2 up as they will count it as a contertrend advance......just as it happen on the ensuing advance out the dec 1987 5th wave bottom......the advance out the 87 low was sloppy and kept the bears bearish then in 1990 when the 2nd wave down occured....(the bears saw 5 waves down into the oct 90 low and declared that the end of the world was upon us) the rest was history..... 1.2 buckly my choo.......SJNORJHT"
1/2 gallon of Apple Cider Vinegar
1/4 c table salt
1/2 tsp Dawn liquid dish soap
player label,frontcourt/backcourt,player,aalary,avg F points a game,avg F points per game last 5 games
A,FC,James,9900,42,44
B,BC,Bryant,9200,33,34
C,BC,Wade,8900,31,41.8
D,FC,Lee,8100,30,26.6
E,FC,Cousins,7700,30,29.2
F,BC,Lilard,7100,24,27.8
G,FC,Bosh,6800,26,24.8
H,BC,Conely,6100,22,25
I,FC,Favors,5300,16,21
J,BC,Chalmers,4100,15,16.8
*Injuries/suspensions
*players that have not played in the last five games.
*secondary players substituting for starting players.
it’s that time of the month again - we heading into the widely dreaded option expiration week. Which is a great occasion to once again remind everyone of Tom Sosnoff’s 10 Golden Rules for Expiration Week:
Look for flat and range-bound markets after Wed. After a large move (usually on hump day - Wednesday), the markets go flat. Reason is that most of the churn is done at the move day. Don’t expect large back-to-back moves. Look for flat and range bound trading.
There tends to be a continuation of the major trend. Buy the dips - sell the rips! Expect to get buying/selling pressures into the following week. Don’t be a contrarian! If it’s bullish you should be buying dips, if it’s bearish you should be selling rallies.
Wed-Fri of expiration week have historically a bias to the buy side. There is an enormous amount of arbitrage going on. It happens to be one of the more bullish times of the months. Most professional traders are very flat during that time - and if for instance they have an open SPY position, it makes them very nervous to have exposure to the upside.
It is best to be out of your front-month positions by Wed of expiration week. If you are expecting a certain move and it hasn’t happened by Wed, you want to get whatever salvage value there’s left. Or if you’re in a good position that cost you some money, you don’t want to go into the delta/gamma risk and Wed should be your close day. Don’t get too greedy during expiration week.
The Monday after expiration is one of the most liquid trading days of the cycle. Under normal circumstances (not right now) it is also the best day to get an option as close as possible to theoretical value, and it’s a great day to get involved if you missed establishing positions the prior week. It’s one of the more intense days and everybody is at work. Traders are less at edge. It’s a good day to establish new positions - as there is no front month expiration risk.
Stocks and options rarely lie going into expiration week. For whatever reason stocks that are strong tend to stay strong, weak stocks stay weak. Usually the market is very fairly priced.
Jan/Apr/Jul/Oct tend to be bullish months around expiration. Triple witching months tend to be a little flat. You have a triple witching cycle which is March, June, September, and December (3/6/9/12). The months following (1/4/7/10) have a historical bias to the upside.
Be strike-price aware! Remember that options have a tendency to go to the number that hurts the most people, which is a strike, some also call this pin-risk. Over time, certain stocks have a tendency to go the next strike price. Even the averages have a tendency to go to their nearest strike.
Close ATM positions prior to expiration. Your target spot is your at-the-money strike for at least half your positions no later than Wednesday. The expected move in the following days will take you away from your sweet-spot price. Again, don’t be greedy - we all know what happens to pigs!
Familiarize yourself with the 4 major futures food groups. Look at the Russel 2000, Nasdaq, S&P 500, and the Dow - a strong index will stay strong, and a weak index will be weak. You have to watch what pushes the markets: /ES, /NQ, /YM, /TF, as well as SPX, NDX, VIX.
$TNX.X is moving lower and did NOT make a new high ass the indexes continued to rally.
down volume %, breadth nearly 5/1, vxo +20pct, equity p/c highest reading since mid september, trin close yesterday near 4.0
add to NYA and P/C for Daily outlook
No One Strategy Always Wins - During the market moves between price lows and momentum highs and between price highs and momentum lows, trend following strategies will tend to work. During periods between momentum highs and price highs and between momentum lows and price lows, we will tend to see countertrend (reversal) strategies working. During the period between price highs and momentum lows, we'll tend to see volatility expand; during the period between momentum highs and price highs, we'll tend to see volatility dry up. Using the same strategy across all phases of market cycles will result in periods of uneven performance.
Xinyuan Real Estate (XIN) is hugely undervalued and got the big push. This is what a speculator waits for -- a stock with huge growth potential, valued at pennies on the dollar. I'm not one of those guys. I focus mostly on the company's longer-term aspects. But I double up my holdings on companies that I expect to bust loose in the short term, too.
Xinyuan is trading at $6, and I see no reason why it isn't worth at least double that. It's investing in China's booming tier-two communities and avoiding the already hyped tier ones. Not to mention that the truly amazing Chinese Olympic coverage is the frothy water on the top of this tsunami.
Sigma Designs' (SIGM) stock took the dive recently, but now it's bubbling back. It's all good now -- concrete fundamentals and low debt. I can't resist buying more of this company. Sigma has good management and is always up for leveraging when it has the opportunity to have an outstanding quarter.
Wall Street overreacted to its lower earnings a few quarters ago. That's been good news for me. I pretty much bought it for nothing. Sigma had announced ahead of time that its earnings would blip lower. So why did the price go down? Wall Street acted like it was blind-sided and went into a selling frenzy. The selling's over. Buy.
VSE (VSEC) is growing at a brisk pace but took a dive earlier this year because of free-cash-flow issues. This is a mostly government funded company. The U.S. government makes good on what it owes, so the free-cash-flow issues aren't a big deal.
High Correlation
Symbol Correlation Plot
NDSN 0.88
SM 0.86
POWL 0.85
SU 0.85
AME 0.84
BRY 0.84
GRC 0.83
PX 0.83
PXE 0.83
PZD 0.83
Low Correlation
Symbol Correlation Plot
DUG -0.78
PZG -0.76
IRBT -0.71
OSBC -0.71
BBNK -0.70
NKTR -0.70
AMFI -0.69
CRBC -0.69
IBCP -0.69
RVR -0.69
How to beat spyware and viruses, 2008 edition
Wed Apr 2, 2008 11:46AM EDT
See Comments (25)
Buzz up!on Yahoo!The last time I wrote a piece on how to remove spyware from your computer was in 2006. Time for an update, I think. Here's my perennial "How to Beat Spyware" howto, revised and updated for 2008 (and combined into a single file instead of two parts).
Here's what to do if you suspect an infection on your Windows PC. (Please note these steps apply to both Windows XP and Vista.)
1) Are you sure it's spyware or a virus? Windows pop-ups and alerts can often seem invasive enough to be viruses, especially with Vista. Try searching the web for the exact text you see on the screen to make sure you aren't dealing with an aggressive Windows message. (Many of these can be turned off, so try whatever instructions you find.) On the other hand, some viruses masquerade as Windows alerts, so tread lightly.
2) Boot in safe mode. If you have a virus, first step is to try booting in safe mode. You can get to safe mode (a simplified version of Windows that disables a lot of extra gunk, possibly including some spyware apps) by restarting your PC and tapping F8 during boot. Soon you'll get a menu of options. Select "Safe Mode" (it's at the top of the menu) and wait for the machine to fully boot. The system will look funny (with a black background and larger icons, probably), but don't worry about it. This is only temporary. (Also note that many spyware applications can disable safe mode, so if you find this doesn't work, just boot normally.)
3) Run your antivirus application. This is of course assuming you have an antivirus application. (Need one? Check here.) You're in safe mode now, so run a full scan of your PC at maximum security levels (include the option to scan within compressed files, for example). This will probably take an hour or more, so be patient. Fix any problems the virus scan turns up. Then reboot into safe mode again using the procedure in step 2.
4) Run one or two anti-spyware applications. I used to recommend running multiple anti-spyware apps, but virtually all antivirus apps now do a pretty good job at getting rid of spyware too, so you don't need an army of additional applications just for spyware. Also, I now recommend starting with AdAware (which is free) and moving on to Spyware Doctor (free as part of the Google Pack) if you feel you need additional help. (Please note that recent versions of Spyware Doctor and Norton Antivirus have some trouble with each other.) You can try other apps too, but the once-recommended SpyBot Search & Destroy is no longer very effective, sadly. (Neither is Microsoft's own Windows Defender.) Of course, fix anything and everything these apps find.
5) Reboot normally. (Not in safe mode.) Now take stock. Still got spyware? It's time to move along to my more advanced techniques for removing the nasties.
6) Run HijackThis. HijackThis is a free software tool that scans your computer to find malware that other apps might miss. Scroll down to "Official downloads" to download the tool. Next, simply open the ZIP file you downloaded, extract the application, and run the tool (you don't need to install it). Click the "Do a system scan and save a logfile" button. You'll receive a large text file as well as a dialog box which gives you a list of active software processes, which you can then choose to delete. Unfortunately, this list includes both helpful and unhelpful software, so don't just start deleting items. Continue in step 7 to figure out how to fix your spyware infection.
7) Post your log file online. Visit this page, which offers a list of forums staffed by volunteers who can help you interpret your HijackThis log. The SWI Forums are especially busy, but most of the forums on the list are equally apt. Go to SWI and visit the "Malware Removal" forum which has over 50,000 topics listed: Those are all people like you who are seeking help getting rid of spyware. Register for an account, read the FAQ, then visit that Malware Removal forum, and post a new topic. Paste the content of the text file you created in step 5 into this topic and (politely) ask for help. You will get a response from a volunteer helper, typically within 3 days. You'll be given specific advice on what entries to remove with the HijackThis tool, and you might be pointed to additional software to run to help remove common spyware infections. Follow all the instructions and keep working with the forum helpers until either you or they give up. (And no, don't send your log file to me or post it here. I am not nearly the spyware removal expert that these guys are.)
7a) Alternately: Paste your log file into an automated tool. Don't have three days? Try simply pasting your HijackThis log file into this form. It does a pretty good job at auto-analyzing what's wrong with your machine, with no waiting. As well, if that doesn't work, you can search for the items you find in the HijackThis log by name to see what they are and how to remove them, if they're spyware. This can be quite time consuming, though.
8) Try System Restore. If that doesn't work, you might try running Windows System Restore to roll back your OS to a time before the infection happened. This isn't foolproof: You might not have System Restore turned on, or the spyware might have shut System Restore off, as well. But it's worth a shot. With either XP or Vista, System Restore can be found under Start > All Programs > Accessories > System Tools > System Restore.
9) Give up and wipe your hard drive. At this point, you've exhausted all the options I know of. You might try again at steps 6/7 to make sure you've done everything you can to salvage the PC. Forum helpers will often work with you for weeks to help fight a spyware infection, but there are tens of thousands of possible variants out there, with new ones cropping up every day. It's just not possible to clean them all, every time. Sometimes the only thing you can do is call it quits, reformat your hard drive, and reinstall your OS. Again, make sure you have your backups ready and verified. Once you're up and running, reinstall your antivirus and anti-spyware applications, and stay vigilant against infection. Good luck.
Message 24065486 is deleted.
Message In Reply To: :( #msg-24065486 :(
ok, IH Admin has spoken as follows:
1. my post removed
2. no PM from Matt et al. Admins
As such I no longer add posts to this board as stated in post deleted,
and just for the record a copy follows.
Rose
Entire 'Daily Show' going online
http://www.news.com/8301-13577_3-9799654-36.html
More HD TiVo software upgrades soon
http://crave.cnet.com/8301-1_105-9799432-1.html
Firefox 3 to go native in appearance
http://www.news.com/8301-13580_3-9799745-39.html
YouTube's copyright filters aren't good enough
http://www.webware.com/8301-1_109-9799614-2.html
U.S. wants end to Allofmp3 spinoffs
http://crave.cnet.com/8301-1_105-9799924-1.html
Unlimited online storage for free, almost: Wuala
http://www.webware.com/8301-1_109-9800042-2.html
Teaching plasma to follow LCD's lead
http://news.zdnet.com/2100-9584_22-6214189.html
U.K. retailer links poor profits to Vista sales
http://news.zdnet.com/2100-9590_22-6214193.html
Memory randomization (ASLR) to Mac OS X Leopard
http://blogs.zdnet.com/security/?p=595
The UK loses its way in technology
http://blogs.zdnet.com/BTL/?p=6628
Bill would let ID theft victims seek restitution
http://news.zdnet.com/2100-1009_22-6213935.html
Consulting's dirty little secret
http://blogs.zdnet.com/projectfailures/?p=442
where are the "Top Secret" Leopard features
http://blogs.zdnet.com/hardware/?p=864
Digital media ethics: it's personal
http://blogs.zdnet.com/Bott/?p=318
Better Gmail gets even better
http://www.webware.com/8301-1_109-9796742-2.html
Current TV gets Web site it deserves
http://www.webware.com/8301-1_109-9796992-2.html
Entry-level QuickBooks is now free
http://www.webware.com/8301-1_109-9797123-2.html
AOL to lay off 1/5 of workforce
http://www.news.com/8301-10784_3-9797210-7.html
If loving a robot is wrong...
http://crave.cnet.com/8301-1_105-9796686-1.html
Wii's Opera Web channel improves
http://crave.cnet.com/8301-1_105-9796615-1.html
Teenager claims to have easy iPod Touch jailbreak
http://crave.cnet.com/8301-1_105-9797067-1.html
Such great heights: Our favorite laptop stands
http://reviews.cnet.com/4321-6459_7-6592814.html
Netvibes widgets now available on...
http://www.webware.com/8301-1_109-9797821-2.html
Report: Vimeo's going hi-def next week
http://www.webware.com/8301-1_109-9798003-2.html
Apple outlines Leopard upgrade path
http://crave.cnet.com/8301-1_105-9798151-1.html
S60 touch technology announced, watch out Apple
http://blogs.zdnet.com/mobile-gadgeteer/?p=644
Java now shares limelight with other platforms
http://blogs.zdnet.com/service-oriented/?p=984
Google Apps Gmail now uses the Gmail storage counter
http://blogs.zdnet.com/Google/?p=771
Unresponsive iPhone touch screens
http://blogs.zdnet.com/Apple/?p=944
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