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04/02 t 2.92 500 ARCA
04/02 b 2.8356 6700 NDD
04/02 t 2.92 906 NDD
04/02 6 2.92 21208 NYE
04/02 b 2.91 770 NDD
Yeah, I never saw it either
I don't see that?
You too! Something wrong in the AH: $2.91 first, then $2.8356, ...
What happened in the AH? The price dropped to $2.8356 (6,700 shares)!
It closed at $2.92, not bad. Happy Easter all
yup I followed it today.
You're right. CVEO hit the new high $2.93 today! Great week for us!
I still need to buy more shares.. Hopefully next week I can afford to.
Thanks, was holding anyway. Got one of the two wishes. CVEO snapped back although oil didn't. CVEO close to the HOD for two days in April. Got to believe some entity(ies) wanted out before quarter end and was driving pps down. They're gone and hopefully now there is more upside.
CVEO
Please tell me we are closed tomorrow:
http://www.thestreet.com/stock-market-news/11771386/market-holidays-2015.html
CVEO
Technical analysis (as of: 2015-04-02 3:06:10 PM)
Overall:
Stoxline rating system posted a BUY today, same as yesterday. This stock seems to continue bullish move. If you bought, continue to hold stock until SELL signal. You are relatively safe to buy now, upward move is expected.
Target:
Six months: 3.86 One year: 4.61
Support:
Support1: 2.25 Support2: 1.87
Resistance:
Resistance1: 3.30 Resistance2: 3.95
Pivot:
2.61
Moving Averages:
MA(5): 2.64 MA(20): 2.83
MA(100): 5.36 MA(250):
______________________________________
http://www.stoxline.com/quote.php?symbol=cveo
CVEO
CVEO hit a new high $2.92 today! Tomorrow it should test the $3 mark!
$2.92 just hit! $3 comes very soon...
CVEO just hit $2.89! $3 is very close by now...
"Nymex May oil down 95 cents, or 1.9%, to settle at $49.14/bbl"
Not bad. Would love to see a video showing oil trading to get a sense of how there are these sudden changes. How many entities decide that suddenly the price needs to drop so much. For example, I note that on most days there is a big pre-market drop at 9:00 am. Can't understand the influencers of such drops. How many entities are trading with so much influence to make such a dramatic drop?
Maybe we'll get the other CVEO as HOD. Moving back up.
CVEO
It'd be too easy if all it did was go up
Looking nice -- would love oil to go back to HOD and CVEO with it!!
Guess we expect volatility.
CVEO
It's pulled back some
Overall market seems OK with possible Iran breakthrough -- oil not so much:
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/oil-prices-ease-on-uncertainty-around-iran-nuclear-talks-2015-04-02
Hope it is a temporary reaction.
CVEO
Yes. New high $2.85 so far!
Yes. CVEO should test $3 mark as soon as tomorrow based on the huge accumulations today and the strong upward trend!
Yes. CVEO closed at today's high $2.77! It will gap up tomorrow...
Low volume but finishes HOD @ $2.77. Looking for that $2.78 tomorrow -- great call. Seems like aside from technicals we have the oil reports from today and the outcome of the negotiations with Iran that could greatly influence things.
CVEO
CVEO just hit $2.77 again!
$2.78 should be broken out as soon as today or at most tomorrow...
Technical analysis (as of: 2015-04-01 2:15:09 PM)
Overall:
Stoxline rating system posted a BUY today, upgraded from lower rating. This stock seems to be ready for a new bullish move. If you bought, continue to hold stock until SELL signal. You are relatively safe to buy now, a new upward move is expected.
Target:
Six months: 3.86 One year: 4.61
Support:
Support1: 2.25 Support2: 1.87
Resistance:
Resistance1: 3.30 Resistance2: 3.95
Pivot:
2.65
________________________________________
http://www.stoxline.com/quote.php?symbol=cveo
See that $2.78 was resistance a few days ago. Maybe plow through?
CVEO
$2.75 just hit! $2.78 comes very soon...
$2.73 just hit! $2.78 testing very soon...
I saw that. Glad they are doing well!
Yes. CVEO has another great news today! $2.7 just hit...
Up 5.9% so far! $2.78 should be tested again very soon...
10:54a
"Oil extend gains as inventory data shows pickup in gasoline demand"
CVEO
And I just started a new job so it'll be a bit before I can more. If it goes up great. I got a ways I can add yet
I know what you are saying, but find it difficult to not wish a stock I own will not go steadily up.
Wondering if there were institutional shares being sold before the end of the quarter which caused the ask price to continually drop? Hopefully the downward pressure is gone and can respond mainly to oil prices, meaning there still will be dips.
CVEO
I still need to buy more and drop my avg. Before we get back to those levels. Still a ways to go for that though.
Nice! Looking decent today
Notable trades by insiders at Abercrombie & Fitch, Anacor Pharmaceuticals, and Civeo Corp
Insider trades can provide additional information about where a company's management or large shareholders (those having larger than 10% stake in the company) see the share price heading. While there is always some degree of uncertainty surrounding the real motives behind these transactions, it is still helpful to keep track of them. With this in mind, we came up with a list of the most notable such trades in the last couple of days. Insiders at Abercrombie & Fitch ANF, +0.96% Anacor Pharmaceuticals Inc. ANAC, +2.06% and Civeo Corp CVEO, -0.40% made significant moves.
Most investors can't outperform the market by individually picking stocks because stock returns aren't normally distributed. A randomly picked stock has only a 35% to 45% (depending on the investment horizon) chance to outperform the market. There are a few exceptions. One exception is the purchases made by corporate insiders. Academic research has shown that certain insider purchases historically outperformed the market by an average of 7 percentage points a year. This effect is more pronounced in small-cap stocks. Another exception is the small-cap stock picks of hedge funds. Our research have shown that the 15 most popular small-cap stocks among hedge funds outperformed the market by nearly a percentage point a month between 1999 and 2012. We have been forward testing the performance of these stock picks since the end of August 2012. These stocks managed to return more than 137% over the ensuing 2.5 years and outperformed the S&P 500 index by more than 80 percentage points (read the details here). The trick is focusing on the small-cap stocks, not the large-cap stocks which are extensively covered by analysts and followed by almost everybody. Following insider transactions and hedge fund purchases makes sense only when there are limited information available about the stocks that they are buying.
Moving on to the first insider trade, which involved Bonnie Brooks, a director at Abercrombie & Fitch Co. Brooks acquired 1,000 shares at $22.69 per share and 1,200 shares at $22.56 to put her total holding at 2,200 shares. She was appointed as director last year after management shake-up demands from activist investor Engaged Capital LLC. Abercrombie & Fitch Co. is down by nearly 42% over the last 52 weeks amid disappointing financial results. In contrast its apparel and accessories retailers industry is up by 12% over the same period. The company's founder & CEO Michael Jeffries stepped down late last year, but that still hasn't solved all its problems. The only interesting feature about the stock right now is its 3.62% dividend yield, but given the weakening business the yield comes with a significant risk.
Among the hedge funds that we track, 28 had investments totaling $323.88 million at the end of the fourth quarter as compared with 30 funds with $342.98 million in the previous quarter. Joel Greenblatt's Gotham Asset Management held some 2.87 million shares valued at $82.16 million.
Anacor Pharmaceuticals Inc's Executive Vice President and CFO, M. Geoffrey Parker also added some 3,000 shares of the $2.27 billion biopharmaceutical company to his holding of 173,000 shares. Parker also directly owns 94,840 shares with his wife, Jill Gofen Parker through Geoffrey M Parker and Jill G Parker Revocable Trust. Parker's indirect stake in the company amounts to another 10,000 shares held through Delaware Charter Guarantee & Trust Company, which is a Trustee of Mr. Geoffrey Monroe Parker IRA.
Anacor Pharmaceuticals Inc. surged by more than 163% over the last year. Just last year the company received FDA approval for Kerydin, a topical toenail fungus medication. Anacor has Novartis AG's Sandoz unit backing the commercialization of its new treatment. The fourth quarter, which was the first fiscal quarter that included Kerydin sales, posted solid results. William Leland Edwards' Palo Alto Investors upped its stake by a hefty 20% in Anacor Pharmaceuticals Inc. during the fourth quarter to 2.52 million shares valued at $81.33 million. Anacor is also among top 3 biotech picks of VHCP Management according to the latest 13F filing.
Civeo Corp also received some insider trading action as Bradley J. Dodson, who is the company's president, CEO and Director added some 91,600 shares at the price of $2.39 per share to his holding that now comprises of 553,275 shares. Civeo Corp was a wholly owned subsidiary of Oil States International until its spin-off last year. The company provides lodging services to oil firms and the recent decline in oil prices had a strong impact on the company's financial results. Although the disappointing fourth quarter performance was expected, weak guidance provided by the company's management has caused an even steeper slide in the stock price. 2015 revenues are expected to fall between $520 million and $560 million, and the EBIDTA range is between $130 million and $150 million. This compares badly with the $942.9 million revenues for 2014 and an EBIDTA of $339.8 million. David Einhorn's Greenlight Capital upped its stake by 74% in Civeo Corp during the fourth quarter to 10.66 million shares valued at $43.8 million.
Civeo: A Relatively Unpopular Company That I Am Adding To My Portfolio by Dan Carman
Long only, deep value, contrarian, long-term horizon
Disclosure: The author is long CVEO. (More...)
Summary
The stock has lost 90% of its value since its spin-off from Oil States International in May.
The company generated an adjusted after tax profit of $101 million in 2014.
I believe that they have the resources to remain compliant with their credit covenants in 2015.
Not many companies have had a worse year than Civeo (NYSE:CVEO). Since its spin-off from Oil States International (NYSE:OIS) in May of 2014, CVEO's stock price has collapsed:
The company, although profitable, has suffered from an eliminated dividend, selling from activist investors, and a collapse in the price of oil and metallurgical coal. Although I wouldn't buy the company at $28/share, I believe that its current price of $2.63 is quite attractive. Let's look at my reasons for thinking so:
They Are Involved In A Lucrative Business
According to their recently published annual report, CVEO reported an adjusted net profit of $101 million for 2014 (not taking into account the $290 million asset writedown that they took). This comes out to $.95/share. Based on this, the company is currently trading at a P/E of 2.77. Even if we take into account their 2014 adjusted earnings of -$1.77/share, their average annual earnings for the past 5 years come out to $.96/share, leaving them with a current 5-year P/E of 2.74.
From a balance sheet perspective, CVEO seems to be fundamentally sound. As it stands, they have listed equity of $860 million. However, that includes intangibles and a large PP&E account. Even if we completely eliminate the intangibles and take 60% of the value of the PP&E account, we arrive at a book value of $260 million, which is $2.45/share, just under the current share price.
As for their business itself, CVEO's operations focus mainly on providing accommodations to workers in the remote Oil Sands region in Alberta, Canada, and the Bowen Basin in Queensland, Australia. In 2014, the company had 21,828 rooms available, with a total occupancy rate of 78% in their lodges and villages. Their Wapasu lodge in Canada, at 5,174 rooms, is equal in size to the largest hotels in North America.
Further, Civeo opened their McClelland Lake Lodge, with an initial capacity of 1,888 rooms, during the summer of 2014. According to their earnings reports, the majority of that initial capacity is filled under a 3-year contract, which shows that there is still some long-term demand for projects in the Oil Sands region. Additionally, CVEO is the dominant provider of third-party accommodations for the two major projects in the Oil Sands, Suncor Energy's Fort Hills project, and Imperial Oil's Kearl project.
Other than customer-owned accommodations, CVEO is by far and away the market leader in both the Oil Sands region as well as the Bowen Basin region, responsible for 42% and 67% of the market share of third-party accommodations providers, respectively.
The lodging business itself is extremely profitable. In 2014, CVEO's Canadian segment experienced a gross profit margin of 39.2% based on revenues and the Australian segment experienced a gross profit margin of 58% based on revenues. These percentages will surely decrease in 2015 due to lower expected occupancy rates, but depending on the amount of cost-cutting implemented, should remain healthy enough to generate substantial profits.
Although CVEO will definitely experience a loss in revenue due to reduced capex budgets, their customers have shown decades-long commitment to developing both the Oil Sands region and Bowen Basin respectively. For example, Imperial Oil, one of CVEO's largest customers, has been working on developing projects in the Oil Sands for 40 years, and recently announced that they will be sticking with their Kearl and Cold Lake expansion projects. BHP Billiton Mitsubishi Alliance operates seven Bowen Basin metallurgical coal mines, and has been announcing record production amidst the price collapse, showing that there is still a demand for projects in the low-cost Bowen Basin.
I believe that much of this year's expected pessimism has already been baked into the current share price. It is not often that one comes across a profitable company that has lost more than 90% of its value in under a year. In a world in which a P/E of 15 signifies average value, a company trading at a 5-year P/E of 2.74 certainly warrants another look.
The Road Ahead
If this company were valued on past earnings alone, it simply would not be a $2.63 stock. The collapse in the WCS price and metallurgical coal has caused CVEO's major customers to slash their capex budgets significantly. This has upper management warning shareholders of a bumpy road ahead in 2015. The board has estimated 2015 revenues of $540-600 million with EBITDA of $135-$160 million.
Even at these depressed levels, I'd argue that CVEO will be able to comply with their covenants and stave off a restructuring. As estimated in their annual report, CVEO will have to reduce their indebtedness by $250 million in 2015 in order to comply with their covenant of total debt to consolidated EBITDA of no greater than 3.5 to 1. According to their balance sheet, they have a cash balance of $250.4 million that is held by foreign subsidiaries, as well as accounts receivable of $160 million for which they can use to pay down their term loan of $775 million.
In an effort to gauge cash flow generation in 2015, let's assume that the $291 million cash flow from operations number decreases by 40% due to the current negative environment and 40% reduced revenue forecasts. This leaves them with $175 million. After subtracting estimated capex of $75-85 million and their contractual cash obligations of $88 million, that leaves CVEO with $2-12 million in surplus cash to contribute towards debt reduction. Although the cash generation isn't enough to move the needle, it is at least reassuring to know that the company will not be burning cash during 2015.
Also mentioned during the quarterly conference call was that CVEO is in talks with their bank syndication to refinance their current credit agreement. Their estimates are that this will be completed during Q2 of 2015. This is welcome news, as it is another avenue that the company can take to remain covenant-compliant.
The risk to investing in CVEO at this level is uncertainty. Will the company be able to comply with their covenants throughout 2015? Will the macro environment of oil and metallurgical coal prices improve? Knowing how dependent the world is on oil and metallurgical coal, I personally believe that there will always be a demand for projects in the 2nd-largest oil reserve in the world (Canadian Oil Sands) and largest metallurgical coal deposit in Australia (Bowen Basin). I also believe that CVEO will be able to use cash on hand, accounts receivable, and drastic cost-cutting to comply with its covenants. Time will tell!
Ridiculous how much manipulation goes on here
Should be ok. I'm down over $1
Nice, I bought about a wk ago and was hoping I wasn't way toearly...
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