Cisco Systems Inc (CSCO)

[ernie44]

200 day avg. was sideways---company couldnt resist buying more CSCO FOR treasury stock

[ernie44]

Wedding bells for Robyn too... things are up nice

[ernie44]

so they claim to be doing a buyback--- bet they were shorting their own stock before that

[nowwhat2]

Hey, Looks like that worked. Nice move.

https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=143020567

[nowwhat2]

Last i looked (plus 9 months later).....

November 16th 2017



9 months later :




.

[maronti1]

since Sisco just made an offer to buy Duo security for 2.3b
i am wondering
who will pay Strikeforce Tech inc
for Duo being infringing on their patents?
the coury has already favoted in Sfor side
Duo also suppose pay for Trustewave

all Treble damages

i suspect $400/500m

[Mirk_Water]

Needs 30+ Million vol to push thru gap.

[JoniCash]

Great article

[joanne4trade]

CSCO downward trend related to the earnings report as well as sale of the stock. Data was adding up at the beginning of May concerning the movement of their company. CSCO trading signals were able to predict a sell zone before the turn. #BluSignals https://www.blusignalsystems.com/csco-stock-predictions-alert-current-downward-trend/

[stocktrademan]

CSCO buy option

buy 01/18/19 40 calls for 5.60























normal chart




log chart

[buby89]

Yup! Good stuff!

[The Elites]

Enjoying this move up in the stock price $$. Long time Holder of this stock!

[Gbathat]

25 billion buyback ought to be good for a 10 percent pop or so

Plus dividend boost

Plus revenue beat

$46 by Friday?

[$treet $inatra]

has to close that gap up from Nov/Dec

[$treet $inatra]

Lets see if there's more downside here to about $33-$34

[JLHammer]

Internet of things. Blowout quarter.

[Gbathat]

Earnings week

[Gbathat]

Glad to hear it and good luck!

I am looking for potential opportunities around earnings reports, particularly for companies like Cisco due to potential buyback announcements. I will probably buy short term calls right before earnings calls. I’ll post on option millionaire’s board as I buy. Take care.

[restripe]

Yes that was a great play I averaged around that also. Thanks again for the heads up great call if you come across something else that you feel might be good please do not hesitate to let me know LOL thanks again good luck

[Gbathat]

I guess 800% in two months will have to do;). If you did better, well played.

Cheers.

On to the earnings report.

[Gbathat]

https://www.einpresswire.com/article/427530460/broadsoft-obtains-antitrust-clearance-for-pending-acquisition-by-cisco

[Leezee Life Strategies]

Possible top in. GLTA

[Gbathat]

AAPL announces repatriation plan. Will Cisco follow suit?

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/01/17/it-looks-like-apple-is-bringing-back-home-nearly-all-of-its-250-billion-foreign-cash.html?recirc=taboolainternal

[Gbathat]

In the money! Seems like we were moving in lockstep with msft and ntap today... thank you tech bulls.

Cut 15 % of my 41c’s at .35 today, riding freebies from here...
I’ll probably take some profits in the morning, but will be watching Nasdaq futures closely and will probably hold a good chunk til Friday.

Deal or no deal? What is in the case Howie?

Good luck! I was hoping we’d be higher, but I guess that means some potential call opportunities near the 14 feb earnings report if PPS plateaus or breaks downward for a bit.

[Gbathat]

The case for CSCO

Near term 10% pop expected...
https://www.thestreet.com/story/14444621/1/three-reasons-to-buy-cisco-stock-before-it-explodes-10-percent-higher-or-more.html

Price target raised from 37 to 46...
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/01/05/cisco-hits-highest-level-in-almost-17-years-after-bank-of-america-upgrade.html

CSCO CFO on tax reform impact "...where we have opportunity is really to get much more aggressive than we have been on the share buyback... "
https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-transcripts/2017/11/16/cisco-systems-csco-q1-2018-earnings-conference-cal.aspx

Cisco has largest stockpile of overseas cash (relative to market cap) to put towards above referenced buyback plan
https://www.cnbc.com/2017/09/26/goldman-these-companies-are-headed-for-a-big-tax-break-on-overseas-cash.html

[Gbathat]

I am hopeful that the stock will keep going up. After hours Friday it went up to 40.94.

It seems possible that they are already buying back shares. I reviewed their last quarterly earnings slides and found a note indicating they had $10 billion still authorized for future buybacks by at end of Q1, which I believe was 30 sep. That might explain why no announcement of a larger buyback yet, or it may just be taking a while for them to determine the correct tax withholding for repatriated funds.

I would guess they did not buy back much in Q2 due to tax reform uncertainty. Hopefully what we observed Friday and in some of the previous runs up was a combo of buybacks, market interest increasing due to analysts increasing price targets to $44-46, and associated strong hands from longs.

My strategy for this week is to sell enough to cover my total investment after taxes on Tuesday morning if futures are up, which would be about 15% of my call options at the current price. After that, we’ll see... probably an incremental price step sale approach to increase chances of taking some profits. I have a day job, so I’ll need to automate this each night.

[restripe]

Wow what a move the options made on NTAP at least you got something out of it. There is always one around the corner LOL. Any thoughts on CS CO for next week thanks

[Gbathat]

Good day indeed! And on pretty average volume too... Hopefully the momo keeps going into next week.

Honestly, I thought we'd be at this level two weeks ago, but things have not quite transpired according to expectation.

I'm really kicking myself for not loading up on NTAP at the same time. 55c on NTAP were available at 5 cents in mid Nov... wish I'd bought 400 instead of 40, most of which I sold way too early. That stock has been absolutely on fire since. Hopefully Cisco follows suit next week.

Cheers.

[restripe]

Well I have to say thanks for the heads up on the other board Great call

[buby89]

Yup!!

[restripe]

Wow big move today. Moving too good to let go of any

[Gbathat]

Buying frenzy this morning got us through China treasury news... hopefully we see the same tomorrow and broader market support

Hope remains

Yeah, Cramer kind of goes with the wind... a couple more real analyst upgrades though which is great... need those institutional investors and funds to move this stock along

[restripe]

Cramer oh boy selling tomorrow lol Nice to break the 40 today even if it was for a short time . some time left might lighten up some on the next move

[Gbathat]

Cramer on board the cisco train https://www.thestreet.com/story/14444621/1/three-reasons-to-buy-cisco-stock-before-it-explodes-10-percent-higher-or-more.html

[Gbathat]

Another up day... I wonder if they are already buying back shares on leftovers from a prior authorization. That would be smart as they could get them at a lower price before announcing a subsequent buyback authorization and shooting the price up. Hopefully the latter happens before the 19th but I am losing hope... only 8 more trading days. At current rate though, we may still make some money.

My plan is to sell 20% of my calls at 40 cents (10x) and then ride the rest.

After that, and if no buyback announcement is made, calls spanning the next earnings mtg in feb might be in order, if PPS is still sub 42. That would be a logical time to discuss the buyback to counter any negative earnings impacts of the repatriation tax payment. I believe they used that forum to announce a buyback in 2016.

Good luck

[restripe]

Yes some news and more upgrades would be great 41 is right around the corner hopefully it is an up week would be great to Bank on this and move onto the next one good luck to us

[Gbathat]

Price target raised from 37 to 46... good news... hopefully other analysts update their targets too

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/01/05/cisco-hits-highest-level-in-almost-17-years-after-bank-of-america-upgrade.html

[Gbathat]

Nice move up... still waiting on that buyback news

Entering ex dividend period on their quarterly dividend now

Next earnings call not til mid Feb

Quite a few positive articles about transition to new markets

Some articles questioning repat tax impact on near future earnings, but my understanding is companies can pay it over next 8 years rather than all at once

Two weeks and 2 bucks to go on my 41c , fingers crossed

NTAP has been a bit volatile lately, I sold another quarter of my 55c s today after an upswing...

Hope all is well

[restripe]

Looking better

[Gbathat]

https://www.thestreet.com/story/14429667/1/what-the-tax-cuts-mean-for-apple-cisco-and-silicon-valley.html


Not sure on timing... or much else for that matter... buyback amount, etc. only subjective data at this point

[restripe]

Thanks for posting all this good info. If and when do you think they will make an announcement? Thanks

[Gbathat]

Another buyback announcement that serves as possibly a better reference is Oracle. They announced 12B increase in buyback on 14 DEC.

Their market cap is similar to csco. They are in a related industry and have a similar p/e. They are up about 20 percent on the year, similar to CSCO. One difference is CSCO pays about a 2X higher dividend. Oracle has a higher price forecast in terms of percent increase relative to current PPS.

The oracle buyback announcement resulted in only minor price movement, which means it was effectively priced in during the rally.

So bottom line, I think we need a big buyback number from CSCO in order to get much movement upwards. I would guesstimate that the first 15B on whatever they might announce is mostly priced into the current PPS.

I'm hoping for at least 30B. Of course, they will have in the neighborhood of up to 60B repatriated, based on their overseas hoarder cash. So they could maybe even go higher.

All hopeful speculation on my part. Time will tell.

Ball is in CFO Kramer's court now. Congress and POTUS did their part, on schedule, amazingly.


Related info from Cisco earnings call on 15 Nov 2017

James Faucette -- Morgan Stanley -- Analyst

Thanks very much. I wanted to ask a question on capital structure. Can you give us an idea of what your preferences and priorities will be in capital structure in terms of buybacks and acquisitions, etc. if the proposed new tax changes pass versus if that change in tax law gets derailed? I'm particularly curious as to how you're thinking about the pacing of acquisitions versus buybacks, etc.

Thank you.

Kelly Kramer -- Chief Financial Officer

I'll take that one. What I'd say is in terms of acquisitions, the tax policy isn't impacting us either way because we are lucky to have a great cash flow and access to capital. So, it hasn't been stopping us from anything from an acquisition perspective and it won't. So, that will continue.

I would say we're definitely encouraged by the progress that's going on, on the tax reform. So, like we said in the past, when that happens and if we get a repatriation which both plans currently have, we're going to continue like we have, growing or dividend with our earnings growth and where we have opportunity is really to get much more aggressive than we have been on the share buyback and of course we want to make sure we continue to have enough firepower to continue to be able to do the right acquisitions to help position Cisco right for the long term.

https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-transcripts/2017/11/16/cisco-systems-csco-q1-2018-earnings-conference-cal.aspx

[Gbathat]

Looks like Trump could sign tax bill tomorrow...

https://www.cnbc.com/2017/12/21/senate-has-enough-votes-to-pass-spending-bill-sets-stage-for-tax-cut-signing.html

[Gbathat]

http://www.nasdaq.com/article/trump-tax-package-spurs-price-hikes-for-cisco-arista-corning-cm895246

[restripe]

The stock is moving quite well on its own let's hope it continues

[Gbathat]

Nice action today relative to market, but this might hurt any December calls... https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-12-20/trump-is-said-to-plan-tax-signing-jan-3-due-to-technical-issue

Trump may not sign until 3 Jan... ugh

I've also seen a few dud buyback announcements this last week.... PFE and PPG. PFE stock price decreased when they upped their buyback plan by about 5 percent of market cap... I assume the market had higher expectations. PPG went up a little with a buyback plan for about 10 percent of market cap.

It looks like the market has priced in some of the buyback potential. I hint both of those companies are rated much less favorably than Cisco, so they may not be good reference points.

[Gbathat]

CSCO CFO in Nov on tax reform impact "What I'd say is in terms of acquisitions, the tax policy isn't impacting us either way because we are lucky to have a great cash flow and access to capital. So, it hasn't been stopping us from anything from an acquisition perspective and it won't. So, that will continue.

I would say we're definitely encouraged by the progress that's going on, on the tax reform. So, like we said in the past, when that happens and if we get a repatriation which both plans currently have, we're going to continue like we have, growing or dividend with our earnings growth and where we have opportunity is really to get much more aggressive than we have been on the share buyback and of course we want to make sure we continue to have enough firepower to continue to be able to do the right acquisitions to help position Cisco right for the long term. "

https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-transcripts/2017/11/16/cisco-systems-csco-q1-2018-earnings-conference-cal.aspx

[Gbathat]

I bought the NTAP calls around the same time as initial batch of csco calls because they also have a high ratio of overseas cash to market cap... similar to csco at that time. but it has surged already because of better than expected earnings

Unfortunately, I only bought 40 calls because I could not find anything on their plans for repatriation and thought it was riskier (and getting in now may be more so). I'm still holding 20, hoping it will surge again.

On a somewhat different note, I studied Walmart's buyout announcement in oct 2017. They announced a 20 Billion usd buyback over 2 yrs. Their stock surged 7 or 8 percent in a few days.

http://www.businessinsider.com/walmart-stock-price-20-billion-buyback-announcement-2017-10

Their market cap was a bit bigger than csco' I think they were around 240 billion at the time. Csco' s market cap now is about 190 Bil.

So best case if CSCO announced that they would put all their 70 bil overseas cash (maybe 60 Bil after 15 percent repatriation tax bill), I would expect a 20 to 30 percent surge in a short period of time, if the market responded similarly to the walmart announcement.

Variables of course include tax plan passing finish line, date of any potential buyback announcement, planned buyback amount, market cap at time of announcement, and market response.

Time will tell.

[restripe]

Yes I think we are both in a good place. Wow awesome move on your NTAP. Do you think once the tax bill is past/F that this would have an instant jump thinking about getting some weeklies for next week thanks for your input

[Gbathat]

http://247wallst.com/investing/2017/12/16/20-fresh-stock-buybacks-could-send-100-billion-back-to-shareholders/

Background info on surging buybacks... no mention of csco but some interesting info