Cisco Systems (CSCO)

[restripe]

Looking better

[Gbathat]

https://www.thestreet.com/story/14429667/1/what-the-tax-cuts-mean-for-apple-cisco-and-silicon-valley.html


Not sure on timing... or much else for that matter... buyback amount, etc. only subjective data at this point

[restripe]

Thanks for posting all this good info. If and when do you think they will make an announcement? Thanks

[Gbathat]

Another buyback announcement that serves as possibly a better reference is Oracle. They announced 12B increase in buyback on 14 DEC.

Their market cap is similar to csco. They are in a related industry and have a similar p/e. They are up about 20 percent on the year, similar to CSCO. One difference is CSCO pays about a 2X higher dividend. Oracle has a higher price forecast in terms of percent increase relative to current PPS.

The oracle buyback announcement resulted in only minor price movement, which means it was effectively priced in during the rally.

So bottom line, I think we need a big buyback number from CSCO in order to get much movement upwards. I would guesstimate that the first 15B on whatever they might announce is mostly priced into the current PPS.

I'm hoping for at least 30B. Of course, they will have in the neighborhood of up to 60B repatriated, based on their overseas hoarder cash. So they could maybe even go higher.

All hopeful speculation on my part. Time will tell.

Ball is in CFO Kramer's court now. Congress and POTUS did their part, on schedule, amazingly.


Related info from Cisco earnings call on 15 Nov 2017

James Faucette -- Morgan Stanley -- Analyst

Thanks very much. I wanted to ask a question on capital structure. Can you give us an idea of what your preferences and priorities will be in capital structure in terms of buybacks and acquisitions, etc. if the proposed new tax changes pass versus if that change in tax law gets derailed? I'm particularly curious as to how you're thinking about the pacing of acquisitions versus buybacks, etc.

Thank you.

Kelly Kramer -- Chief Financial Officer

I'll take that one. What I'd say is in terms of acquisitions, the tax policy isn't impacting us either way because we are lucky to have a great cash flow and access to capital. So, it hasn't been stopping us from anything from an acquisition perspective and it won't. So, that will continue.

I would say we're definitely encouraged by the progress that's going on, on the tax reform. So, like we said in the past, when that happens and if we get a repatriation which both plans currently have, we're going to continue like we have, growing or dividend with our earnings growth and where we have opportunity is really to get much more aggressive than we have been on the share buyback and of course we want to make sure we continue to have enough firepower to continue to be able to do the right acquisitions to help position Cisco right for the long term.

https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-transcripts/2017/11/16/cisco-systems-csco-q1-2018-earnings-conference-cal.aspx

[Gbathat]

Looks like Trump could sign tax bill tomorrow...

https://www.cnbc.com/2017/12/21/senate-has-enough-votes-to-pass-spending-bill-sets-stage-for-tax-cut-signing.html

[Gbathat]

http://www.nasdaq.com/article/trump-tax-package-spurs-price-hikes-for-cisco-arista-corning-cm895246

[restripe]

The stock is moving quite well on its own let's hope it continues

[Gbathat]

Nice action today relative to market, but this might hurt any December calls... https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-12-20/trump-is-said-to-plan-tax-signing-jan-3-due-to-technical-issue

Trump may not sign until 3 Jan... ugh

I've also seen a few dud buyback announcements this last week.... PFE and PPG. PFE stock price decreased when they upped their buyback plan by about 5 percent of market cap... I assume the market had higher expectations. PPG went up a little with a buyback plan for about 10 percent of market cap.

It looks like the market has priced in some of the buyback potential. I hint both of those companies are rated much less favorably than Cisco, so they may not be good reference points.

[Gbathat]

CSCO CFO in Nov on tax reform impact "What I'd say is in terms of acquisitions, the tax policy isn't impacting us either way because we are lucky to have a great cash flow and access to capital. So, it hasn't been stopping us from anything from an acquisition perspective and it won't. So, that will continue.

I would say we're definitely encouraged by the progress that's going on, on the tax reform. So, like we said in the past, when that happens and if we get a repatriation which both plans currently have, we're going to continue like we have, growing or dividend with our earnings growth and where we have opportunity is really to get much more aggressive than we have been on the share buyback and of course we want to make sure we continue to have enough firepower to continue to be able to do the right acquisitions to help position Cisco right for the long term. "

https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-transcripts/2017/11/16/cisco-systems-csco-q1-2018-earnings-conference-cal.aspx

[Gbathat]

I bought the NTAP calls around the same time as initial batch of csco calls because they also have a high ratio of overseas cash to market cap... similar to csco at that time. but it has surged already because of better than expected earnings

Unfortunately, I only bought 40 calls because I could not find anything on their plans for repatriation and thought it was riskier (and getting in now may be more so). I'm still holding 20, hoping it will surge again.

On a somewhat different note, I studied Walmart's buyout announcement in oct 2017. They announced a 20 Billion usd buyback over 2 yrs. Their stock surged 7 or 8 percent in a few days.

http://www.businessinsider.com/walmart-stock-price-20-billion-buyback-announcement-2017-10

Their market cap was a bit bigger than csco' I think they were around 240 billion at the time. Csco' s market cap now is about 190 Bil.

So best case if CSCO announced that they would put all their 70 bil overseas cash (maybe 60 Bil after 15 percent repatriation tax bill), I would expect a 20 to 30 percent surge in a short period of time, if the market responded similarly to the walmart announcement.

Variables of course include tax plan passing finish line, date of any potential buyback announcement, planned buyback amount, market cap at time of announcement, and market response.

Time will tell.

[restripe]

Yes I think we are both in a good place. Wow awesome move on your NTAP. Do you think once the tax bill is past/F that this would have an instant jump thinking about getting some weeklies for next week thanks for your input

[Gbathat]

http://247wallst.com/investing/2017/12/16/20-fresh-stock-buybacks-could-send-100-billion-back-to-shareholders/

Background info on surging buybacks... no mention of csco but some interesting info

[Gbathat]

And of course there are still two votes and a signature that need to happen in DC first! News seems encouraging there.

[Gbathat]

Yes, the highly leveraged 41c for Jan seem like they have barely moved in price despite the stock cracking 38 already

I bought more of them and some for end of December using a portion of my profits from some ntap calls that are up 5500 percent.

The Cisco play is certainly not without risk.

An announcement on a buyback next week sure would be a nice Christmas present.

Hopefully it will move with the broader market anyway and get us close so we can at least ride freebies.

Good luck to you.

[Gbathat]

http://social.fool.com/blog/43286436964 2 tech stocks are ridiculously cheap

[restripe]

Yes hopefully they post some news soon I actually followed you into this trade I seen your post on option millionaires it looks good so I picked up some myself The stock has been moving up nicely but the option has not really picked up as of yet hopefully that will change

[Gbathat]

Maybe some clues in the recent shareholder meeting transcript... nothing concrete but there was mention at one point of policy to return half of cash flow to investors, as well as the fact that csco has been lobbying for over a decade to ease the repatriation tax rate. CEO also said hoping to see something in a few weeks when asked about tax reform. I thought that was weird given that tax reform could be signed as early as next Wednesday... perhaps he was hinting at an announcement by Cisco... just speculation on my part.

Splitting profit over the new year could be advantageous from a tax perspective for investors.

My hope is they announce a buyback before end of CY... they,ve certainly been anticipating repatriation for a long time.

Hopefully they throw more than 50 percent of the overseas cash into the buyback, or include a dividend too. Even 50 percent of 70 billion is a big buyback though, given that market cap is 190B.

A guy can hope. I bought some calls for mid Jan.

[restripe]

The question is if and when

[Gbathat]

CSCO is the better short term tax reform play and here is why...

1. They have the largest pile of overseas cash (relative to the size of their market cap). Their overseas cash pile is equal to about 34 percent of their market cap... that is huge!!! Tax reform will allow repatriation of that cash at a low tax rate.

2. They are on the record stating that they will use repatriated cash to get much more aggressive with their share buyback program. If they use only half of the repatriated cash for buybacks, the stock could possibly go up 15 percent

More info below

Background on companies with high tax reform repatriation potential

https://www.cnbc.com/2017/09/26/goldman-these-companies-are-headed-for-a-big-tax-break-on-overseas-cash.html

Related info from Cisco earnings call on 15 Nov 2017

James Faucette -- Morgan Stanley -- Analyst

Thanks very much. I wanted to ask a question on capital structure. Can you give us an idea of what your preferences and priorities will be in capital structure in terms of buybacks and acquisitions, etc. if the proposed new tax changes pass versus if that change in tax law gets derailed? I'm particularly curious as to how you're thinking about the pacing of acquisitions versus buybacks, etc.

Thank you.

Kelly Kramer -- Chief Financial Officer

I'll take that one. What I'd say is in terms of acquisitions, the tax policy isn't impacting us either way because we are lucky to have a great cash flow and access to capital. So, it hasn't been stopping us from anything from an acquisition perspective and it won't. So, that will continue.

I would say we're definitely encouraged by the progress that's going on, on the tax reform. So, like we said in the past, when that happens and if we get a repatriation which both plans currently have, we're going to continue like we have, growing or dividend with our earnings growth and where we have opportunity is really to get much more aggressive than we have been on the share buyback and of course we want to make sure we continue to have enough firepower to continue to be able to do the right acquisitions to help position Cisco right for the long term.

https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-transcripts/2017/11/16/cisco-systems-csco-q1-2018-earnings-conference-cal.aspx

[restripe]

Come on break into these 38 already

[Gbathat]

CSCO planning aggressive buyback if tax reform passes

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-11-29/trump-s-tax-promises-undercut-by-ceo-plans-to-reward-investors

Background on companies with high tax reform repatriation potential
https://www.cnbc.com/2017/09/26/goldman-these-companies-are-headed-for-a-big-tax-break-on-overseas-cash.html

Related info from Cisco earnings call on 15 Nov 2017

James Faucette -- Morgan Stanley -- Analyst

Thanks very much. I wanted to ask a question on capital structure. Can you give us an idea of what your preferences and priorities will be in capital structure in terms of buybacks and acquisitions, etc. if the proposed new tax changes pass versus if that change in tax law gets derailed? I'm particularly curious as to how you're thinking about the pacing of acquisitions versus buybacks, etc.

Thank you.

Kelly Kramer -- Chief Financial Officer

I'll take that one. What I'd say is in terms of acquisitions, the tax policy isn't impacting us either way because we are lucky to have a great cash flow and access to capital. So, it hasn't been stopping us from anything from an acquisition perspective and it won't. So, that will continue.

I would say we're definitely encouraged by the progress that's going on, on the tax reform. So, like we said in the past, when that happens and if we get a repatriation which both plans currently have, we're going to continue like we have, growing or dividend with our earnings growth and where we have opportunity is really to get much more aggressive than we have been on the share buyback and of course we want to make sure we continue to have enough firepower to continue to be able to do the right acquisitions to help position Cisco right for the long term.

https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-transcripts/2017/11/16/cisco-systems-csco-q1-2018-earnings-conference-cal.aspx

[SANDRA11]

She is tired sold and shorted to day.

[buby89]

I'm holding this in my HSA long-term for now. Good dividends and growth ahead.

[nowwhat2]

Awww yeah no, sure....




Yielding 3.3 %


Lol : Because "technically" ?....Why, THAT thing's a winner.....

Park some 'o THAT in yer 401K.....


If we're NOT in a bubble (where everything collapses), then Cisco should perform really well.


Good LUCK

[jones99]

Very bullish on CSCO. Continued transition to SaaS subscription model, higher projections, cloud partnerships with Google and Alibaba...

[buby89]

Glad I bought shares around $31.00 !! This stock is a buy and hold as I think it is undervalued at the moment.

[jones99]

I think this will tick upward leading to ER. May sell prior to report out, but what’s the expectation from ER performance this Q?

[Equitiesduke]

Appears CSCO is being "manipulated" at the HFT exchanges. Study charts and see the "channel" the Stock is being held in. Pretty obvious.
Stock has "legs" but can't go anywhere as any using HFT exchanges gets a .03 per share per trade regardless of direction. Do the math on say 100,000 shares,..traded say 5 times per day.
Yes, and 5 Billion shares outstanding is too many for this Company.
GLTAL.

[intexp]

Cisco and Breast cancer ..

https://www.ziontechgroup.com/blog/2017/10/10/cisco-employee-shares-her-working-experience-with-breast-most-cancers-the-network/

Lifeline Biotech owns 47% of Cyrcadia
ticker is llbo

[pcarew]

Cisco competitor Sonus just upgraded
Sonus (SONS), just added to Zaks 'Strong Buy' list

[pcarew]

Cisco competitor Sonus is starting to move on basis of merger.
Sonus is upping it's Revenue guidance. Stock accretion is the way to go.
It looks like a good opportunity to progressively accumulate Sonus as it's base solidifies.

From InvestorVillage:
Revenue Guidance officially raised!!
On page 131 of merger document dated 9/22 - SONS Rev estimate for 2017 is now $260M! This is a $8m-$16m raise for full year 2017 in contrast from the Q2 2017 report.

[HERMES8]

Explore Volatility Factor For Clear Picture: Cisco Systems, Inc., (NASDAQ:CSCO)

Cisco Systems, Inc., (NASDAQ:CSCO) was trading -2.54% away from its yearly high level, during the last trading session. The last session’s volume was 32,396,906 compared to its average daily volume of 20.33M shares. The company has its outstanding shares of 5.00B. The stock after showing, 1.23% change from opening, closed at $ 33.72 by scoring 1.05%.

This stock is ahead of its 52-week low with 15.80%. The share price has moved away from its 20 days moving average at the rate of 4.92% and its 50 days moving average returned 6.11%. The stock returned 7.94% last month which was maintained at 11.58% this year. However, weekly performance stands at 3.69%.
http://www.stocksmarketnews.com/explore-volatility-factor-for-clear-picture-cisco-systems-inc-nasdaqcsco/

[buby89]

Agreed. Any ideas?

[Cryptocol]

Big things brewing her folks

[Equitiesduke]

In meeting with some execs we are advised they have made changes as to how the revs are reported. That means 5 sections within which to report, so the rev reporting is more accurate. This is a very strong Company with higher PPS targets.

[Equitiesduke]

Incredibly strong fundamentals in CSCO!
All our "gurus" on Wall St. have a 45-47. target in the making.
CSCO is revamping revenue reporting areas to 5 sections to be more accurate.

[JWard99]

They can easily solve their revenue issue with acquisitions, instead of spending 10 b on buybacks, they could buy 2 to 3 companies

[tedowsley]

Cisco has posted declines again for fourth quarter 2017 results.

[kerbalsp]

So you guys are worried about them paying out a few hundred million when they have 68 billion in cash, 12.67 billion in Free Cash Flow and about a 20% profit margin?

[Goodbuddy4863]

Markman Hearing done in favor of ChanBond:

http://www.morrisjames.com/assets/htmldocuments/patent%20blog%20-%20Chanbond%20-%201826.pdf

I was very surprised to hear the Markman Hearing has already taken place.

I did not know this and this is the first mention of them losing it.

Right there.... as plain as the Nose on My Face.

The question is...Can all of them afford to fight this while Money expenses keep going higher as they approach a Trial.

Staring straight into the Barrel of a 16 Gauge Sawed off Shotgun!!

JMHO


Note:
Cisco is involved also in this IPR patent Litigation!

Cisco and RPX both lost at the PTAB!

[Goodbuddy4863]

ChanBond Avoids Institution of Six Cisco IPR Petitions:

http://www.natlawreview.com/article/chanbond-avoids-institution-six-cisco-ipr-petitions

This material contains IPR Infringement.

I know there are Investors here that are keenly interested in IPR protocols being followed.

ChanBond is a Subsidiary of Unified Online.

$$ Tomorrow can't come Soon Enough $$

[I Need Money]

LoL. Tomorrow should be the big day...

[Goodbuddy4863]

Thanks I/N/M

That sounds really enlightening.

$$$$ Mega Bucks $$$$

[Goodbuddy4863]

Latest ChanBond[Unified Online] Litigation update:


IN THE UNITED STATES DISTRICT COURT FOR THE DISTRICT OF DELAWARE
IN RE CHANBOND, LLC ) C.A. No. 15-842 (RGA) PATENT LITIGATION ) CONSOLIDATED STIPULATION & [PROPOSED] ORDER FOR EXTENSION OF TIME IT IS HEREBY STIPULATED, by and between the parties, and subject to the approval of the Court, that the time for the parties to submit a joint status report and proposed revised schedule (see D.I. 109) is extended until June 15, 2017.


Quote:
Consolidated Stipulation = An agreement between attorneys that concerns business before a court and is designed to simplify or shorten litigation and save costs. During the course of a civil lawsuit, criminal proceeding, or any other type of litigation, the opposing attorneys may come to an agreement about certain facts and issues. Such an agreement is called a stipulation. Courts look with favor on stipulations because they save time and simplify the matters that must be resolved. Stipulations are voluntary, however, and courts may not require litigants to stipulate with the other side. A valid stipulation is binding only on the parties who agree to it. Courts are usually bound by valid stipulations and are required to enforce them.


Note:
I think there might be a settlement offer made tomorrow.
___________________________________________________
Offer referring to payment from 13 Cable Companies and Cisco for infringing against IPR invented by ChanBond[a Subsidiary of Unified Online].

Disclosure:

Do Your own D/Diligence

[I Need Money]

Its coming. LOL

[Goodbuddy4863]

From all My research looks like Cisco has paid out a large sum of Money when it comes to infringement.

They have it to lose.

Very Rich Company.

My Cable Provider has 2 Cisco DVR's in My House.

My Cable Company is also in the ChanBond lawsuit Litigation.


$$ Give Me the Money $$

[Goodbuddy4863]

PTAB Nixes Six Cisco IPR Petitions Over Networking Patents

By: Kelcee Griffis

https://www.law360.com/articles/907966/ptab-nixes-six-cisco-ipr-petitions-over-networking-patents

Final settlement is due Tomorrow.

Stay Tuned Hokie!!

[Goodbuddy4863]

Look at the 1 Month Chart:

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/CSCO/?p=CSCO

Wonder how much farther the Share Price will fall if Cisco decides to Pay ChanBond over the unlawful use of their [IPR] intellectual Property Rights.

Any Opinions?

[HokieHead]

Cisco is in doo doo and owes UOIP some serious cash. New article out today.

http://www.eprfinancialnews.com/2017/06/14/7833-the-story-of-chanbonds-fight-for-its-patent-infringement/

[ahall]

If you want CSCO money take it to UOIP.. Big potential settlement coming their way from Patent infringement. CSCO is one of 13 big companies involved