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Piece on Deloitte, accounting for FMCN and QIHU...
http://www.forbes.com/sites/richardpearson/2012/04/02/deloittes-china-problem-comes-to-a-head/
$NEP long setup
NEP Stock Analysis
NEP - China North East Petroleum Hldng Ltd. listed on AMEX.
NEP - Sector: Energy, Industry: Oil and Gas Operations.
NEP gained 13.85% on 02/10/12.
NEP is trading in the range of $1.97 - $2.70 in the past 30 days.
NEP formed a Bullish Engulfing pattern.
Average True Range (Atr) indicates the volatility has increased for NEP.
Commodity Channel Index (CCI) is bullish for NEP.
NEP formed a bullish 5-day exponential moving average and 9-day exponential moving average crossover.
The 22-day exponential moving average is moving up for NEP.
NEP formed a Bullish Macd Crossover signal.
Money Flow Index (MFI) is bullish and moving up for NEP.
NEP formed a bullish Price & Exponential Moving Average Crossover signal.
NEP formed a bullish Price & Simple Moving Average Crossover signal.
The 10-day simple moving average is bullish and moving up for NEP.
NEP formed a bullish Stochastic Crossover signal.
Average volume increase over 10% for NEP.
Next Earnings Release Date: 03/12/12.
http://www.dojispace.com/stock-picks/china-north-stock-price-NEP.aspx
Great read on the Chinese ADR's
http://www.thestreet.com/story/11346607/1/china-internet-stock-picks-for-2012.html
More on HOGS ...
http://alfredlittle.com/2011/08/17/zhongpin-who-will-be-the-first-to-suspend-coverage/
Zhongpin: Who Will be the First to Suspend Coverage?
August 17, 2011
This morning Geoinvesting LLC published a report “Zhongpin: Overstated Income, Excessive Capex and Deceptive SAIC Filings” (link here). We at Alfredlittle.com strongly agree with Geoinvesting’s findings, having reached many of the same conclusions in our own research. The CAPEX issue alone should be enough to prompt every analyst to suspend coverage. Where did all that money go? We plan to publish our own detailed report later this week.
HOGS
Bearish Flow
Zhongpin (HOGS) is down 19 cents to $8.52 and puts on the Chinese meat producer are seeing action again today. Volume is 23,000 contracts, which is 5X the norm and compares to 4,670 calls. Aug 7.5 puts, which are 11.9 percent OTM and expire at the end of the week, are the most actives. 11,110 traded. Aug 10 and Sep 7.5 puts are seeing interest as well. Implied volatility is up 7 percent and remains elevated at 123. The bearish flow appears to be in reacton to a negative blog (Seeking Alpha) article questioning the company's financials.
http://seekingalpha.com/article/288088-wednesday-options-recap?source=yahoo
http://seekingalpha.com/article/287972-zhongpin-overstated-income-excessive-capex-and-deceptive-saic-filings?source=yahoo
I'm about done with buying any options that are less than one month in duration, I'll take my smaller gains with less risk from now on...
or at least i'll try...
HOGS: Where was this move last month when I owned July 5's . Meet on this bone, or heading for a halt, or both?
I know the feeling...
HOGS: Down ~17%. If only this could have happened before July options expiry.
Shocking! Not!
HOGS: Zhongpin: Low on the HOGS
Pork producer Zhongpin (HOGS.NASDAQ) is one of the more volatile stocks to emerge from the Middle Kingdom. The share price of the Henan-based company has fluctuated between US$9 and US$25 in the past 12 months and fallen nearly 50% since January 1.
Volatility implies both high risk and potentially high rewards, but this is a stock to avoid. Zhongpin is running a real business, but our research shows it is significantly smaller than the company has claimed in its official filings – calling into question both Zhongpin’s reported revenues and its integrity.
High on the hog
The first major discrepancy is that Zhongpin claims to buy far more hogs from large Henan breeding farms (1.1 million) than breeding farms report supplying to Zhongpin (81,000). We contacted dozens of farms in Henan, but we only found four that confirmed supplying to Zhongpin. Furthermore, when we asked Zhongpin to specify the names of the farms it buys from, the purchasing manager stated only these four that we had found.
Why would Zhongpin overstate this? There are two possibilities: Since hogs raised by large breeding farms are usually higher-quality, overstating this figure makes its business seem more appealing. Or Zhongpin could be overstating revenues – obviously, neither is good.
Secondly, the company claims to run more than 1,200 retail stores in Henan where it sells its meat, but our field teams found only 83 in total. Our research was thorough: In Luoyang, for example, where Zhongpin claimed have more than 100 stores, our detailed street-by-street survey found only 33. Even the store managers themselves estimated that there were far fewer Zhongpin stores in their cities than the company reported.
Hands off
These are just some of our findings that bring into question the legitimacy of Zhongpin’s revenue figures. Taken together, they suggest Zhongpin has overstated its 2010 revenues by 20-30%.
Regardless of these findings, Zhongpin’s share price could rise in the coming months; the company announced a plan in July to repurchase up to US$10 million of its stock over the next 12 months. But even if a repurchase does push the price up, investors would be wise to resist the temptation. Zhongpin is at risk of being the next stock to be targeted by short-sellers for falsifying its business.
.
http://www.chinaeconomicreview.com/en/content/zhongpin-low-hogs
HOGS down on this...
China Struggles to Tame Pork Prices
By CHUIN-WEI YAP
JULY 14, 2011, 6:27 A.M. ET.
BEIJING—Government measures to increase China's hog population to tame sharp pork price rises that have fueled broader inflation may produce only limited results in the second half of the year, analysts said.
With sharply higher pork prices stoking Chinese inflation, Beijing said Wednesday it would resume a 2.5 billion yuan ($385 million) investment program to support large-scale pig farms. The government also said that it will provide a subsidy of 100 yuan per sow to encourage farmers to support pig production. The goal is to boost supply to help bring down surging prices of pork, a staple food for Chinese households, which have also contributed to higher U.S. pork futures prices, as exporters anticipate increased demand from across the Pacific.
View Full Image
European Pressphoto Agency
China's hog population is expected to rise about 2% from last year, Rabobank said. Above, pigs at a farm in Qingdao.
.
China's pork prices have been rising since March 2010, reaching a record 23.61 yuan a kilogram in mid-June, 57% higher than a year earlier.
Premier Wen Jiabao singled out pork, a staple among Chinese households, as a leading cause of accelerating inflation, after the consumer-price index jumped 6.4% in June, its highest rise in three years.
U.S. lean-hog futures rose 1.7% to 99.6 cents a pound at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange Wednesday on the back of a sharp rally in corn prices and a recent rise in pork prices.
News of China's government measures underpinned prices, even as a U.S. Department of Agriculture report Wednesday also showed U.S. pork exports continuing to boom this year.
But analysts said it is likely to take at least four to six months before it is clear if the policies are effective.
"Farmers only really began replenishing pig stocks in June, and these [new hog stocks] can only be brought to slaughter in four to six months," said Chenjun Pan, an agriculture analyst with Rabobank.
China's hog population is expected to rise about 2% from 453 million head last year even with these enhanced measures, Rabobank said. "It's not that easy to increase the hog population and it won't have immediate results," Ms. Pan said. Beijing's subsidy to farmers for raising sows would effectively expand a previous subsidy that was limited to a smaller population of preapproved sow breeds, said Ms. Pan.
The investment program for hog-farm infrastructure was suspended in 2008, once prices eased after the last spike, but bouts of foot-and-mouth disease from March 2010 and swine flu in mid-2009 culled the hog population, restoring upward pressure to pork prices.
China has also made commitments to subsidize pig immunization and other public-health measures to more closely supervise the potential safety hazards of rapidly ramping up China's hog population. Analysts are expecting pork prices to top out soon, regardless of the new subsidies, although it's unclear how much they might come down.
"We expect pork prices to rise a bit further in July, and pork inflation at about 60% year-on-year, and start to decline in August on the coming rise of pork supply," Bank of America Merrill Lynch economist Ting Lu said.
"We expect prices will fall slightly [in the months ahead] but not that much, though the chances of a continued price increase will also be smaller," Rabobank's Ms. Pan said.
The pressure on pork prices has also fed into import demand for corn, though analysts said it's less clear if it will immediately result in higher demand for foreign pork.
"I don't think pork imports are going to rise much, as global prices are still quite high and have risen sharply," Zheshang Futures analyst Xu Wenjie said.
Still, data from the U.S. Meat Export Federation indicate 2011 U.S. pork exports to Hong Kong and China could grow 14% on year.
The increased demand is more apparent in the corn sector. China has bought 3.7 million metric tons of corn from the U.S. so far this year, with sales for the full year likely to reach 5 million tons, an executive with a major state-owned grain trading company told Dow Jones Newswires earlier this week.
Such a volume would dwarf last year's 1.6 million tons of corn imports and mark the second consecutive year China has been a net corn importer after 15 years of net exports.
China's total corn imports for the year will likely use up 70%-80% of the government's annual tariff-rate quota of 7.4 million tons, Shanghai JC Intelligence Co. analyst Xiao Jun said this week.
You were dead correct on RENN. It's taken a beating the past two days,
I know, the markets are flying these last two weeks, don't want to be short anything at this moment in time...
But soon...
RENN: I'm sitting on my hands until we see some sector or overall market weakness. Most of the china majors have bounced back and are aproaching overbought levels. Trying to be patient.
I'm keeping my eye on RENN but not doing anything at the moment. HOGS looks to be dying a slow death. It hasn't participated in any of the recent surge.
Interesting action. I came within a whisker of buying a few calls after it bottomed. I'll document this action for the next MW short attack.
QIHU is my lone remaining china short for the moment. The sector seems to be showing signs of a bottom, so I'm treading a little more cautiously for now. Any pops and it'll be time to short them again.
GL sooner or later these garbage stocks will continue their fall...
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