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Ok...did not mean to insult. Just meant in the stock market, $500 isn't much. Regards.
It's not so much the money, but a $500 option trade that expires in 5 (now 4) trading days with a strike over 30% out of the money? Big/risky/interesting/speculative/etc...however you want to spin it.
I went with big - $500 isn't lunch money to me.
Wow, how do you define big bet? A $500 option trade?
I'm a little surprised that 100 March $8 options went for $0.05 this morning. Pretty big bet (or mistake) on someone's part that CHTP will make a good size move up...or covering themselves relatively cheap while they short this week.
Guess we'll see what plays out!
I'm pulling for ya!
Options expire next week. Might help the price stay near $6 if nothing else.
I bought more today. So I guess that tells you where I stand on things.
Hoping for great news on or before Friday next week. My option are...not looking so hot right now to say the least.
so what do you think guys for next week
Looks like it's picking up. Also looks like I won't get that double down. All good, nice green day.
Volume not working over time this morning... makes me think the volume yesterday was more trading than meaningful accumulation.
Hopefully today's movement proves me wrong.
After hours @ 5.88
time to load up heading into monday?
You know, now that you say that King...
I have had my eye on a Jeep SRT8.
Big pharma, buy Chelsea!
In reality, the one thing that was mentioned during the "news" today that hasn't been discussed in much detail was the idea of multiple interested parties. I suppose it has been implied, but not much has been said about who and or why - I don't have the expertise here. It was also nice to have someone with more experience point to the lack of CCs as a sign.
If upward pressure continues tomorrow, I might have to test drive that Jeep this weekend
* * CHTP Video Chart 3/13/14 * *
Link to Video - click here to watch the CHTP technical chart video
I've been there before bro, trust me! I hope you're able to make enough to pay that car off plus buy a whole new one! So , I hope you're wrong as well as I loaded back up today for the short term play.
The nice jump aside, we need to consider two things: First, all that happened today was that we got back closer to where we should have been in the first place. We've drifted down significantly since approval. Second, no new news was presented. The analyst just happened to say what we are all thinking - they just happen to have the ability to be quoted and published for all to see. So for now, I'm not reading too much into today's move - just enjoying the green.
As much as I would like to believe things are happening tonight/tomorrow/this weekend/etc...I'm going to calm my excitement and say today's movement can be chalked up to the right person saying the right thing, at the right time, with the right audience.
Admittedly, I'm out of a couple car payments if my options expire worthless next week...so I hope I'm wrong!
Looks like I picked an interesting day to not keep a close eye on things.
Lawyers like weekends to dot and cross. Higher billing rates. Look for news on merger monday. IMO.
hentied
They may have to release news sooner if there was a leak...
Company tends to post news Fridays after hours so that is what I'm banking on.
Chelsea Therapeutics (CHTP) Partnership or Acquisition on Horizon - Wedbush
http://www.streetinsider.com/Analyst+Comments/Chelsea+Therapeutics+(CHTP)+Partnership+or+Acquisition+on+Horizon+-+Wedbush/9279538.html
Nice pop!
Any confirmation on the rumors?
http://investorshub.advfn.com/Apricus-Biosciences-Inc-APRI-4393/
For further interest the Ihub board for apri is excellent.
Their products are all about enhancing sexual experiences for men and women. Men's to be launched in next few weeks, seeking european approval for women's.
I'm wondering the timeframe of this...
A coincidence, I hope they close a deal soon, because I do have a place for it.
http://www.investorvillage.com/smbd.asp?mb=1655&mn=337&pt=msg&mid=13639121
Over six and still climbing, I love you Chelsea lol
Got back in around 5.34 and will double down heavy if I see a bear raid like the last 2 times.
March 13, 2014
11:45 EDT CHTP Chelsea Therapeutics mentioned positively at Wedbush
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This is from Fly on The Wall.
is this a reputable site? looks strange
What is the IU chat log?
Thks,
Murocman
Webush says CHTP Buyout soon. http://ictworldnews.com/news/chelsea-therapeutics-international-ltd-chtp-buyout#.UyHdGNNX2gM.email
I'm excited for them to give me all that money. Not sure where to put it next though
Analyst thinks price between 8.50-9. But no comments yet
from the company
Its running on the IU chat log. I have no way of posting it.
They are suppose to working out details behind closed doors.
Do you have a link to the news
CHTP moving fast on news of a possible takeover
yeah i'm still holding half my shares thru this waiting period
Don't know but I'm holding tough. The future value is hard to argue
agreed, why was there a drop?
Market cap is approximately 409.4 million.
CHTP only has one drug available for commercial use, NORTHERA, so the value, IMO, of NORTHERA at this time is 409.4 million.
CHTP is not equipped to place the drug on the market itself and it is possibly doing one of the following at the moment...
1. Trying to get a buyer for CHTP.
2. Trying to get a partner to commercialize NORTHERA.
3. Trying to get financing to commercialize NROTHERA itself.
#2 should have happened a long time ago, so IMO this is not happening.
#1 will be difficult for CHTP to do as the stock price continues to drops, bc insiders will refuse to sell.
#3 will be difficult for CHTP to do as the stock price drops, because lenders do not like a shrinking market cap.
In any event, something has to happen soon.
If they release another PR that they are working on avenues to bring NORTHERA to market this will drop to pre Jan. 14 price.
Fair points - but I would address those two issues as such:
The drug has been in use outside the US for a number of years. Since they are not starting from scratch (and in the 10K there is mention of the parent company being part of production) I find it very hard to believe that an inquiring company could not come up with a very accurate estimate of its cost to manufacture. And I would also assume due to the many years it has been in use, production cost have likely been made as efficient as possible, working in Chelsea's favor.
Likewise, the cost to bring this drug to the consumer is greatly dependent on who is responsible for doing so. What I mean here is that Chelsea would be required to start from scratch and pay full expenses for such an endeavor whereas a big pharmaceutical company would incur only marginal expenses to have its drug reps add another product to their portfolio.
In summary, although I agree with the points you made, I do not feel as though they are a large issue when determining value since I see them as "easy" to estimate. From a potential buyer point of view who is privy to more information than me, that is. I can only make an estimate, and a valuation near $1B seems reasonable. Back to the main point I was trying to address, I don't believe the value should be directly tied to the share price at this point in time and a specific % shouldn't be applied when considering the idea of a buyout, IMO.
Northera has been manufactured and sold in Japan for 8 years now....what do you mean they have no idea of the cost to manufacture and sell this drug?
Makes no sense.
Guppi00
Your approach is reasonable except for two items. Because Chelsea does not have a sales force lined up, and because Chelsea does not have manufacturing costs figured out, and a cost for Northera can not be determined and therefore no price to consumer can be determined. Without this information, even though Chelsea has stated the number of people affected, a market size and value of the drug can not be determined. For a potential suitor to do this takes time and money on the part of the suitor. Chelsea should already have these answers (of course a suitor would check there validity), therefore a determination of the company value based on future revenue could be made. Since that information has not been forthcoming, valuation of the company based on the stock price is all that can achieved.
I guess the easiest way to explain my way of thinking is to take a dramatic example. Let's say your willing to pay a 100% premium for the company, effectively doubling the value. Now let's say tomorrow a couple big buyers decide to dump shares and the share price is now $2. Is the company really only worth $4/share?
Now let's go the other way and assume the price still tanks. Valuing Northera (and thus Chelsea) at $1 billion based on a couple years of potential sales, the cost of the ongoing study, etc. Then we see the value of the company as closer to $10 a share rather than $4 just because a couple big guys sold their position.
Theoretically the market is efficient, but in reality it's not. So the market isn't always a proper indicator of company value.
What do you think the value of Northera is? It is hard to calculate, but it is easy to calculate the value of the Co. using the share price.
The share price has already popped a bit since the January announcement....
They will use the share price...I would...
I have a hard time believing that a buyout will have a direct relationship to the stock price. We are not trading at some multiple of earnings. The current company value does not reflect the value of Northera (IMO) - so the idea of an offer based on share price doesn't sit well with me.
The question is - how much is Northera worth? Rather than "how much is Chelsea Therapeutics worth" right now.
Just my opinion!
This is why CEO should have never shown his hand that he wanted to sell NORTHERA or CHTP entirely.
There are buyers out there, but all they have to do is wait and let the stock drift lower before making offer.
Hopefully I am wrong and something is in the works...
Congrats -- you've made about 30% if you shorted at $7?
I'm averaged in at $0.9288/share. Weee! HAHAHA.
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Chelsea Therapeutics International (NASDAQ: CHTP)
Chelsea Therapeutics International, Ltd., a development stage pharmaceutical company, focuses to acquire and develop products for the treatment of various human diseases. The company develops prescription products for multiple autoimmune disorders, including rheumatoid arthritis, psoriasis, inflammatory bowel disease, and cancer. It also develops therapeutic agent for the treatment of neurogenic orthostatic hypotension and related conditions, and diseases. In addition, the company develops platform technologies that consist of a portfolio of molecules for the treatment of various autoimmune/inflammatory diseases, and I-3D portfolio, a dihydroorotate dehydrogenase inhibiting compound. Chelsea Therapeutics' product in development includes CH-1504, an orally available molecule for the treatment of rheumatoid arthritis, psoriasis, inflammatory bowel disease, psoriatic arthritis, and cancer. The company was incorporated in 2002 and is based in Charlotte, North Carolina.
Chelsea has a balanced portfolio of novel therapeutic agents that address disease states that correspond to significant unmet medical need. Investigational product candidates in the Chelsea pipeline include droxidopa, which is being evaluated for its potential use in indications which we believe norepinephrine may play a role, as well as a library of metabolically inert antifolate medications, including two clinical-stage products, CH-4051 and CH-1504, for the treatment of rheumatoid arthritis and other autoimmune diseases.
Behind these late and mid-stage products is a complementary portfolio of dihydroorotate dehydrogenase (DHODH) inhibitors, known as I-3D, which may have applications in treating autoimmune diseases and transplant rejection.
Chelsea News
News
Facts
The Pipeline
www.chelseatherapeutics.com
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=CHTP
Monday, 09/28/2009 - Schedule 13G - http://www.irconnect.com/mc/irc/secfilings.mc?cmd=disp&id=6816624&type=HTML
Tuesday, 09/29/2009 - Schedule 13D - http://www.irconnect.com/mc/irc/secfilings.mc?cmd=disp&id=6818700&type=HTML
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