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Easy to say I still have 2000 call contracts expiring tomorrow. I will hold on everything but I will have to sell those.
The value of FDA approved drug symptomatic neurogenic orthostatic hypotension drug, Northera. The full cost of bringing a new drug (i.e. a drug that is a new chemical entity) to market – from discovery through clinical trials to approval – is complex and controversial. One element of the complexity is that the much-publicized final numbers often do not include just the simple out-of-pocket expenses, but also include "capital costs", which are included to take into account the long time period (often at least ten years) during which the out-of-pocket costs are expended; additionally it is often not stated whether a given figure includes the capitalized cost or comprises only out-of-pocket expenses. Another element of complexity is that all estimates are based on confidential information owned by drug companies, released by them voluntarily. There is currently no way to validate these numbers. The numbers are controversial, as drug companies use them to justify the prices of their drugs and various advocates for lower drug prices have challenged them. The controversy is not only between "high" and "low" – the numbers also vary greatly at the high end.
A study published by Steve Paul et al. in 2010 in Nature Reviews: Drug Discovery compares many of the studies, provides both capitalized and out-of-pocket costs for each, and lays out the assumptions each makes: see Supplemental Box 2.[1] The authors offer their own estimate of the capitalized cost as being ~$1.8B, with out-of-pocket costs of ~$870M.
Studies published by diMasi et al. in 2003, report an average pre-tax, capitalized cost of approximately $800 million to bring one of the drugs from the study to market. Also, this $800 million figure includes opportunity costs of $400 million.[2] A study published in 2006 estimates that costs vary from around $500 million to $2 billion depending on the therapy or the developing firm.[3] A study published in 2010 in the journal Health Economics, including an author from the US Federal Trade Commission, was critical of the methods used by diMasi et al. but came up with a higher estimate of ~$1.2 billion.[4] So what is Chelsia Therapeutics worth in a buy out?
with/without buyout this is undervalue price for this share i will not sell
Acquisition Possible. Behind The Scenes Teva Pharmaceutical (TEVA) Board Of Directors Votes To Purchase Chelsea Therapeutics (CHTP) Following FDA Approval For Northera™ Ventures Sierra World Equity Review
HEADLINE: Behind The Scenes Teva Pharmaceutical (TEVA) Board Of Directors Votes To Purchase Chelsea Therapeutics (CHTP) Following FDA Approval For Northera™ Ventures Sierra World Equity Review.
Sierra's leads indicate that BOD Teva Pharmaceutical (TEVA) are no longer looking to partner with Chelsea Therapeutics instead an acquisition is now the option of choice. Sierra Israeli sources will be updating Sierra throughout the day and Sierra will be posting updates as warranted.
Chandler, they can't discuss that type of information to the public, not until an agreement or done deal, but sometimes it does leak out. When the news is release it is going to be good for the shareholders. So keep on counting your money. A much bigger pot and deal is coming.
Are there any companys that have said they are possibly interested in buying out chtp?
Some one is trying to drive the price down to get cheapies, but knock yourself out. I'am in waiting for the buyout. I don't want this thing to get halted on a cash buyout, and I'm not in the picture when this happen. Chelsea will bounce back. Shorty!!
massive selling is going on. Feb option players are getting killed. If CHTP will choose the route to market Northera, dilution will be imminent within one week.
If I don't see secondaries next week,I will be ALL IN for buy out. IMO.
I sold and took my profit then bought back in on the drop but I should have waited a little longer to buy back in.
Will keep loAding up on it hopefully to 50,000 shares
It will amazing to clear suckers that sell now once takeover comes stock will fly
About to shut it down. Something big is brewing
I think arguing about a buyout is really useless, a company like CHTP that doesn't have the ability to bring the drug to market with no sales force or manufacturing facilities is not in a good position. And at this point, much like AMRN, they could be asking way to much money, in that case companies will just sit back and let them bleed money and value. IMO!!!
A buyout offer CAN Happen @ Anytime,the messages that are saying it will take months,are obviously,either just bashing and/or amateurs.
Level 2 looks nasty all the way to 5.49
years since drug approval or buyout announcement
Years do dd on it. This stock is going back to the 4's no question
not familiar with aria, now has it been that long since they announced a buyout, or since the drug approval.
Aria is still in the buyout stage. Been 4 years on rumors.
Really, can you give a example of a buyout that took that long?
A buyout or merger takes months if not years it's a young company. No buyout anytime soon
We need to remember that there are many fools in the market that sell when they see the PPS dropping. We have not heard from the company since approval and that's interpreted as bad news. No one has any idea what negotiations if anything are taking place. We need to wait for news for another spike in price. I'm fairly confident that not hearing from the company yet is a positive sign as they likely would have already stated they would try to market this drug on their own. Hold tight and buy more shares if we drop lower. No one can predict how low it may go before news comes out but it surely won't stay down.
Still holding or did you take some off the table?
Not off to a very good start today...Hopefully it picks up from here.
Yea I originally thought that as well, but with the volume really high yesterday and no significant increase in PPS....it seemed inevitable to drop. But I suppose this is a good time to load up more or re-enter for the buyout talk.
Yes, a buyout can happen at anytime. We don't know what CHTP is up to involving potential buyout offers. This is something that is kept very secretive between the seller and the potential buyer. The SEC will have both of their A$$ if they leak word of a buyout. The time when you do hear about a buyout is when it had already happen and it usually is to late to get in on the buyout, because the price per share offered and agreed on, in the buyout has already has reach that price. Many times there are rumors of a buyout before it happen, not to say that someone in either of the organization leak out information that suppose to be kept secretive. But this does occasionally happen.
Myself at this time do believe the rumor. It doesn't takes months or weeks for a buyout to happen. Many of us are not dumb we know the concept of a great product that is needed. It isn't like re-inventing something that is already in the market, at lease not here in the USA. If a company wants your product, and it knows there are other companies interest in your new product, may move in quickly to discuss possible terms of purchasing a company or it's new product. How the old saying goes, "If you snooze you lose". No company likes to miss out on a great opportunity.
A buyout offer CAN Happen @ Anytime,the messages that are saying it will take months,are obviously,either just bashing and/or amateurs.
I expect the pps to move into the 8's in the next few days. Since it did not get overbought on the fda news,I Do Not expect a pullback.
Into the upper 6's with dips into the lower 6's with possible news movement
expectation for price movement of today?
CHTP Chart: Chelsea Therapeutics Ltd. (NASDAQ: CHTP) recently announced that the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) granted accelerated approval of NORTHERA[TM] (droxidopa)for the treatment of symptomatic neurogenic orthostatic hypotension (NOH). NORTHERA is the first and only therapy approved by the FDA which demonstrates symptomatic benefit in patients with NOH. NORTHERA is indicated for the treatment of orthostatic dizziness, lightheadedness, or the "feeling that you are about to black out" in adult patients with symptomatic NOH caused by primary autonomic failure (Parkinson's disease, multiple system atrophy and pure autonomic failure), dopamine beta hydroxylase deficiency and non-diabetic autonomic neuropathy..........$$$
The raised money in November.
Don't listen to all the shorts. Cash burn is NOT an issue for a while...
They all say it's too high, yet they don't offer numbers or facts. Here are the facts (or best estimates, per available data).
(1) September 30, CHTP had $21 million.
(2) November 15, raised approximately $19 million
(3) The burned approximately $7.5 million in the previous 9 months (per Sept 30 10Q). That's puts an "average" burn of $833k per month.
Those are the facts based on SEC filings made by the company. Now for some extrapolation (I will model conservatively):
(1) Let's assume the burn ramped steadily during those months assuming consistent hiring). That puts the September burn at about $1.5 million per month (up from $833k average). This represents approximately a 16% ramp rate per month in opex. I have a very high level of confidence they did not increase spending that much, but we'll go with it for the naysayers.
(2) Even assuming opex / burn increased at a rate of 16% per month for the first 9 months of 2013, and it CONTINUES to increase as 16% per month, they have enough cash to get through July, slightly into August without raising another dime.This gives them ample time to shop the company....if you believe that's what they mean by "exploring strategic alternatives. I do. I also view this July deadline is way to conservative, so call it a worst-case scenario.
(3) Assume the burn rate at a static $1.5 million per month, plus a nominal 5% for inflation, raises, PDUFA celebration parties, yadda yadda yadda, and they have enough cash to get to July 2015. Call that a "best-case" scenario.
(4) So from my analysis, they have plenty of time to "explore strategic alternatives" and still ramp a parallel process with the assumption they will market the drug.
Granted this was a quick spreadsheet analysis I put together to back up my numbers, so it could probably use some minor tweaks, but given my 19+ years of financial analysis, I feel pretty good about the numbers.
There will be no dilution. CHTP will be sold and have time to get a good deal
There is a favorable chance that CHTP has already entertain or made offers to sell. It is very doubtful that CHTP will manufacture and distribute it's own new drug. CHTP does not have the resources to produce and launch such an operation. Plus they would not be able to handle the possible lawsuits if the drug turn to be a bad drug. Even if CHTP was approve by the FDA after continuing studies and trail period. There is always that fatal potential that something could go wrong with possible new side effects that didn't show up in the trail studies, but later shows up after the drug has been market for public use. The company doesn't want this burden on their hands. My opinion I believe they will sell instead of merging or manufacturing and distributing the drug them self, which will be a very wise move on their part if they decide to sell.
My own opinion, I see The company selling and getting rid of all possible future liabilities with the sell of it's new FDA approved drug. Let the new owner or owners inherit the risks and liabilities. Why put so much money into sit up manufacturing buildings, producing, distributing, sales, and all the other great expensive that comes with launching this type of business, and only to break even or go bankrupt in the process. Remember Chelsea Therapeutics is only a little start up company. It will take a large amount of money from out side investors to help get this thing off the ground. Maybe that might be while the company might be diluting.
Fair enough -- As for the comment regarding the signal:
Northera pricing has not yet been established. Chelsea plans to prepare for a commercial launch in the second half of the year while also exploring "strategic alternatives," Oliveto said. He has previously told investors that exploring the sale of the company is a possibility upon Northera approval, so this comment isn't new.
Nice information. Plausible. I took note of radio silence from CHTP following approval
I think things would be WAY less specific than that.
I don't think any company would have said "conditional on approval, here is what we're willing to offer".
More like "Assuming you get approved, we might be interested. What is your exit strategy?". Reading between the lines, this says "we might be interested". CHTP's answer would either say "sure--when we get approved, let's talk" or "go away, we can do this ourselves (not interested)". The former signals a friendly bid would be considered, the latter (unlikely in this case imho) would not preclude a buyout, but would just signal that the potential acquirer would need to go hostile.
I assume CHTP could have signaled whether they are open to being acquired or not (not that it really matters). I doubt that any price would have been floated by a potential acquirer.
CHTP's best return comes from putting the company up to an auction involving multiple bidders. We can only hope that there is more than on interested party.
I get what you're saying here...but to me, it sounds as though you are saying that these talks and DD wouldn't have already been taking place. It could be as simple as "conditional on approval, here is what we're willing to offer" -- and CHTP could have been pondering such a proposition/ Given the future study to be completed and the warning attached, a tweak here and there may be needed.
Not saying this is an extremely likely scenario, but I don't think it's fair to throw the idea of a short timeline out the window just yet.
A Merger does not require the joining of 2 or more similar size organizations. A Merger is defined as:
Definition of 'Merger'
The combining of two or more companies, generally by offering the stockholders of one company securities in the acquiring company in exchange for the surrender of their stock.
Investopedia Says
Investopedia explains 'Merger'
Basically, when two companies become one. This decision is usually mutual between both firms.
Will be interesting to say the least as to how this pans out in the near term. I'm looking for re-entry...
Thanks for the insight
It is possible that a firm interested in buying CHTP has signed a general statement of intent with the deal contingent on Northera approval among other things (such as an audit of the books, review of CHTP's existing contracts, etc.)
I am going to jump in here. There is no way a buyout (there will not be a merger, that implies a combination of equals. if anything happens, it will be a buyout) would be announced within days of the drug being approved.
CHTP has signaled their willingness to entertain offers. Big Pharma is certainly more aware of CHTP than anyone on this board is. Some BP companies may have already flagged CHTP as "worth pursuing if drug is approved", and some may have decided they are not interested in any price (due to "fit" issues and what they have in their own portfolio).
Any company that had a potential interest in CHTP will spend some time rerunning their numbers and taking their DD to another level before making an offer.
Remember-this is an orphan drug, essentially a niche product. It is not some kind of cure for cancer and oh-by-the-way it will regrow your hair and raise your libido too kind of must-have superdrug.
I thought I read something about shares being sold recently, but I can not find anything to support that claim. I might be getting my stocks mixed up...so, maybe there was not any dilution today and the chances of buyout/partner are that much greater? Time will tell.
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Chelsea Therapeutics International (NASDAQ: CHTP)
Chelsea Therapeutics International, Ltd., a development stage pharmaceutical company, focuses to acquire and develop products for the treatment of various human diseases. The company develops prescription products for multiple autoimmune disorders, including rheumatoid arthritis, psoriasis, inflammatory bowel disease, and cancer. It also develops therapeutic agent for the treatment of neurogenic orthostatic hypotension and related conditions, and diseases. In addition, the company develops platform technologies that consist of a portfolio of molecules for the treatment of various autoimmune/inflammatory diseases, and I-3D portfolio, a dihydroorotate dehydrogenase inhibiting compound. Chelsea Therapeutics' product in development includes CH-1504, an orally available molecule for the treatment of rheumatoid arthritis, psoriasis, inflammatory bowel disease, psoriatic arthritis, and cancer. The company was incorporated in 2002 and is based in Charlotte, North Carolina.
Chelsea has a balanced portfolio of novel therapeutic agents that address disease states that correspond to significant unmet medical need. Investigational product candidates in the Chelsea pipeline include droxidopa, which is being evaluated for its potential use in indications which we believe norepinephrine may play a role, as well as a library of metabolically inert antifolate medications, including two clinical-stage products, CH-4051 and CH-1504, for the treatment of rheumatoid arthritis and other autoimmune diseases.
Behind these late and mid-stage products is a complementary portfolio of dihydroorotate dehydrogenase (DHODH) inhibitors, known as I-3D, which may have applications in treating autoimmune diseases and transplant rejection.
Chelsea News
News
Facts
The Pipeline
www.chelseatherapeutics.com
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=CHTP
Monday, 09/28/2009 - Schedule 13G - http://www.irconnect.com/mc/irc/secfilings.mc?cmd=disp&id=6816624&type=HTML
Tuesday, 09/29/2009 - Schedule 13D - http://www.irconnect.com/mc/irc/secfilings.mc?cmd=disp&id=6818700&type=HTML
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