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jon
does 1hr macd histogram suggest bottom may be in already?
eom
ive found that using Boll. with Macd works well, i find it alot easier to just follow the trend and use the Bollis and MACD as confirmation, forex has alot of momentum behind it and its really tough to call bottoms and tops imo...
I agree:
Using indicators like fib retracements or others are more for short term guidelines. It just looked as though from the macro view that the wave/cycle was almost textbook. With the amount of liquidity in 4x it's a market tech's dream. Ewavers probably would have a good time with 4x waves too. Hursters probably have a difficult time with it. I'll know soon enough. For the time being, short term I'll stick with bollinger bands, they seem to work best for me
Euro:
It looks as though the euro is 40 months along a 54 month cycle, which is about 4.5 years. From the March 2002 low the first of the three 18 month cycles ended in aug/sep 2003, the second cyle looks like it ended last month. I can't say for certain when that will end, because I'm not yet sure how the compressed trading days affects the longer cycles. I'll be watching with interest
i use fibs in the shorterm as guides only, longterm trends are shifted by unpredictable marcoeconomic and geopolitcal variables and will usually invalidate normal fib support/resistance, on weekly chart you can see the type of support that was tested in the 1.19's and that level will be seen as very important to these big spec. players who hold huge leveraged positions and to those writing big PUTs in the options market whom would prefer to see that level hold and keep those options out the money...
well, if there's anything
to the fibonacci retracements I've heard about and not used, the 38% retracement would put it around 1.16, I think that's around where you were talking about. It could also go to the 50% retracement 1.10, and of course there's the 62% at 1.04. I expext there may be stops at all of those
I agree the Euro will need to correct against the USD and JPY, the only question is will EUR/USD test som BIG stops in the 1.19's, you've got some big macro guys still looking for a continued move, hedge funds that still have USD shorts and wont be able to take much more pain, large Euro PUTS that need protecting, and rumors of some pick players like Buffet with stops down there...
support has been tested a couple times @ 1.20 and only breached it once for a quick minute, this level will bring alot of players into the market but will have alot of $ on both sides of the trade... medium term the fundamental issues behind 'cheap' dollar trend has not changed, Euro zone has just had its own political troubles and economic shortcomings so alot got stuck on the wrong side of that big USD short trade and had to unwind pushing us to this point, now that most of the 'pros' are calling for EUR/USD 1.10 i think its time we start looking to get long for a longer term trade, lol
It looks to me like it's going to be flat for both the eur and the usd. Then there's going to be a break downward between october and december for the dollar, and a break upward for the euro. After the break, the dollar looks to be strong for the next few years, but that looking way far ahead. Particulalry the usd/chf pair which looks to be coming off at least a nine year low, maybe 18
liquidity...
I got bored waiting around for something to happen in stocks, I wanted something more exciting. When I saw that thousands could be made weekly, it caught my attention. Easier to watch 17 currenciy pairs than 14000 stocks. It doesn't seem like a problem with manipulation that the stockbrokers are accused of.
I hear that not many people like to trade currencies, but it's perfect for me. I use technical analysis, (Hurst cycles and indicators). The price action is the same regardless of the market. If someone were to try fundamental analysis on this stuff, they'd go insane
That's it in a nutshell, what got you into it? and how long have you been trading?
EUR/USD got rejected off 1.2080, thats the number to watch, USD/JPY dragging higher thru stops giving some broad strength to USD, as much as USD looks overdone the EURO has made a pronounced move and theres probably some big $ looking to push stops and key support under the 1.2040 level in EUR/USD and 132.40 in EUR/JPY, im just gonna stay on sidelines til i see a move thru the stops or break of that 1.2080 level on EUR/USD
stop out sit and wait this might go lower
stop out sit and wait
WHAT GOT YOU IN TO THE 4X
ha, ya beer is key...
maybe forex is catching on....
I tried pennies through blue chips, and I still have the account, but my energies are in currencies now. I just looked into forex about a month ago, and now I'm a forex junkie. No food, no water, just currencies (well, ok, maybe a beer once in awhile, lol)
i think the board has had more posts in the last 2 days than it has in the last 2 months...
good point jon, thanks...eom
it just depends on the relative value between the EUR and the CHF... rarely will their be any type of true arbitrage between two pairs(and with the spread it wouldnt matter), if you think one pair should out/underperform the other u better off trading EUR/CHF
Is it as much ....
of a struggle for the eur to go up against usd as it is for usd to go down against the chf? I ask because it just broke through the mid on its way down on the 30 minute, as well, and lately it looks really bullish for the usd. I noticed that the usd/chf made an 18 year low back in febuary/march of this year. That tells me that for the next 4.5 years or so, the dollar will climb against chf. I wish I'd seen this back in 12/04, I'd have made a killing...
Oh well...hindsight....20/20
thx jon
u were dead on about rolling over last night (nice profit) ..
eom
1.2075/80 is the level im watching to confirm reversal, otherwise i think we get some downard churning/consolidation around the 1.2040 mark
with oanda
there are no lot sizes ..
u can buy/sell with $2314.56 for example ..
the narrowest spread i could find anywhere (and i looked everywhere) ..
it's no night at ritz-carlton but does the job for me ..
eom
wow, great spreads, that EUR/USD spread is great for scalping...
Nice spreads,
The problem with FXCM, the only one I've seen so far, is that the spreads will take a bite of your profits, and that limits the quick turnaround. I've yet to be profitable using the one minute time frame. The spread for usd/chf is 6, eur/usd 3 ...etc. That's why I take a little longer term approach, at least with usd/chf. More profit, less work, imo.
i see ..
yea swiss franc is just another euro imo ..
euro, japan and us are the major ones i think ..
i don't play jpy because of the spread unless it looks really good ..
i use oanda .. 1.5 spread on euro, 1.8 on eur/gbp, 2 on aud .. jpy is 2.7 spread .. but no guarantees on stop/loss .. so i'm always watching when i have a position ..
eom
Thanks Dawg...eom
good trade
Thanks LMRI...
Yeah, you buy eur you sell $. But the eur/usd graph is exactly the opposite of the usd/chf graph. So you're effectively either buying or selling the $. I just thought it interesting that the when the eur/usd chart is climbing, the usd/chf chart is falling. I didn't realize eur and chf were that closely related. the usd/yen, and nzd/usd aren't, nor are the usd/cad and gbp/usd.
I use FXCM, and they let you pull up simultaneous charts, and that's when I noticed the nearly inverse correlation. Maybe that's true with the other currencies as well, I just hadn't noticed it. I was looking for commonality among currencies, such as common lows and cycle duration. With the 24 hour operation it looks as if the hurst cycles are compressed, making them more in line with the nominal cycle, but I haven't worked with it enough to say for certain that there's commonality among the currency pairs.
eur hourly candle
lookin rather bullish ..
any thoughts? jon? dawg?
eom
welcome aboard tnm ..
we need more people here .. :)
what did u mean by inverse graph?
when u buy eur u r always selling the $ (?)
eom
in again at the same price
i sold (eu) ..
maybe bouncing here (?)
eom
Newbie here,
Hey all, great board. Currency trading beats the heck out of any other kind of market I've seen.
I entered USD/CHF this last night and made 75 pips this morning, using Bollinger and 12 SMA. I would have stayed in longer, but it was my first guess. Also I don't know what to think about it in the near future. It broke resistance today at 2810, but it's hovering there. Looking at different time frames, it looks like the daily could be heading down. I'll sell when the two hour frame gives the signal.
One more thing. EUR/USD have inverse graphs, anyone notice this? I bet you could double your pleasure by buying one and selling the other simultaneously....any thoughts?
Tom
out with 8 pips ..
eom
USD/JPY thru 110 but having trouble holding, would look for some stop/loss buying over 110.10 if it can stage another move higher
the pair is starting to feel overdone on a longer term basis, if the market hears any rumors of YUAN revaluation watch out belowwww....
oops
stopped out ..
eom
hi dawg ..
just got up .. covered at 2120 for 40 p profit ..
could've left it alone with s/l but i never do that ..
:)
eom
fell a sleep glad it worked out for you still looks like it going down more
jon u still awake?
where do u see the major support on euro?
eom
ya, USD/JPY just ran to 109.70 offered and got rejected
thx jon ..
looks like it may be rollin over now ..
got so close to my s/l ..
eom
USD/JPY approaching BIG resistance, 109.70/110 should be real tough, 110 psychological and technical resistance(ascending resistance measures ~ 110.00), would also expect that to be the strike on some large call options that'll be protected by the writers...
EUR/USD looks like it wants to roll over, im waiting to see how it behaves on a move towards the 1.2190/1.22 area or if it can break support @ 1.2140 , on a good push could see some stop/loss buying over 1.22 but most likely nothing serious til 1.2250, in any event i think its a decent short under 1.2200/10 area
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