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Q's up 19% so far..... More to come?
In case folks were wondering why I bought the Q's, take a look at the 60min chart. She is primed for a nice bounce.
We're going long with out next paper trade
Buy 6 Nov14 QQQ $64/CALLS @ $0.47
I will have an updated scorecard soon....
I got long early when everybody was bearish. Green is good!
I was just laying around being lazy this morning and watching CNBC. Then the thought hit me. These talking heads sure are being totally bearish. It's time for the bounce!
The President speaks at 1PM, so let's see what happens
Welcome. Strap in we're go'n for a ride.....
Breaking out the Jim Cramer button, Boca...Buy! Buy! Buy! Rofl!
I'm following your board now bobby.. looks great
We can break it down for you. But you need to dedicate a little time towards it. There is a certain lingo that you need to get accustomed to but believe me, you can do this!
Man, I just don't think options is for me right now..I just can't seem to hack it..if I had more $$ then I would try. I think I might continue paper trading here and there
Ok sounds good. I'll post a trading log later win, lose or draw on this trade. Have a good one!
NP. I've gotta run out for a few hours but we'll chat later....
Oops! Hey Boca, scratch that post...I meant that one for the Green Room...LOL!
There is some indication on AU here that it could push up to make almost a double top with a target at 1.0475. Time will tell...
Should be a high volume push on the S&P setting up right now Boca. Next leg up should begin shortly.
Absolutely right Boca. I stress to the traders I train that the dollars are unimportant. Whether you start with 1k or 10k, all that matters is percentage of gain and capital management. Everything else is secondary.
I built up a nice six figure account after a period of time and I took the profit out and decided to do it again. This time, I'm not stopping till I see seven figures.
The big thing that most folks would have that are on this board is the starting balance of a bit over $12K. I used to do my challenge where I started with $2.5K and tried to turn it into $25K within one year.
I have since revised that #. I will start with $1K and then add a mere $50 per week. I was trying to show the newbie to options the real possibilities.
I have no problem with the amount of capital. It's all just a #. The ore important factor is the plan and strategy we employ. Risk management is waaaaaaaaaaaaaay more important than anything else, imo.
Forgot to mention the risk factor...that's important. Typically I'll risk no more than 2% to 4% at most of the account balance per trade. Gotta keep the powder dry and live to fight another day cause losses are expected as we go along.
I've got a current trade running right now. Risk is 1.15% as I moved my stop loss up once we broke out to the topside on AU.
No worries. Feel free to ask anything.
I see you and I are very similar in our approach.
Create a goal. ($1 million in working capital)
Create a flexible plan. (10% per week gets you there in 48 weeks)
Execute the plan. (Time will tell)
I see the rough outline you have but I'd have a few questions for ya on the finer details...... lol
Here's the links where I just started the process yesterday. If you like, I'll just send em your way as we go along.
Beginning spread sheet here...
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=81232200&txt2find=trade
After the first trade yesterday with a 2.8% gain...
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=81260926&txt2find=boast
Yep. I just want to show the folks on our board what's really possible in this crazy market. It can be beat. We can be one of the few...the proud...the rich! LOL!
I fully expect the daily MA200 to get hit. I'm seeing bearish signs on pairs like AU which is a key follower of commodities. AU is poised to tank big time after this pop today and typically commodities will follow. That means dollar strength and typically market weakness as well.
Ahhhhh taking a page from my book. I try to do something very similar each year. Although last year was a bit dicey at best. I'll try to keep up...
Was watching CNBC all morning. The talking heads may have a point. This idea of selling into the rest of the year due to the uncertainty of the capital gains tax may have legs. We really need to keep abreast of what Congress will do next!
What's your next support level? I'm thinking a worst case senario of about 1355.......
I have about 20-25 stocks that I watch on an everyday basis. And then within that group I really try to learn the patterns in which they trade. For the most part I then try to take the least risky route for trades. It doesn't always give us the "10 bagger" that some traders on iHub scream about. But my losses, which are always part of the game, are more manageable and allows me to sleep at night.
Hey Boca. Got something going here that you might be interested in watching if anyone here is interested in dipping into the dark side of the Force with Forex trading...LOL!
I took a large portion of my profits out of my trading account (about 80k) and I've started off with a new balance of $12,397.97. I'm not thrilled with the presidential election and I'm paying off all my debt.
I'm posting all trades and trading logs, win lose or draw as I go along. I post my trades ahead of time as well.
My current targets are to grow the account by 10% weekly. If anyone wants to follow along, just stop by the Green Room.
We'll take our loss and move on from AAPL. The bounce just never happened and the $585 strike is almost out of reach at this point.
Sell 5 NOV09 AAPL $585/CALLS @ $0.28.....
Morning Boca. Been going back through the charts a bit and looked at the S&P again. It's beginning to look suspiciously like an expanding Wave 4 diagonal/triangle. If that's the case, it'll lead to a nice rally to take us up to new highs before tanking long term.
Still not sure about the pattern. Confirmation really needs to be a break above the top trend line.
Great board you have here! Keep up the good work! How do you discern your entries?
How is your paper trading going? Have you run into any snags?
Did anyone really watch or play our PCYC play? If you bought those PUTS as advertised and sold today when the price hit damn near $45 as advertised, you could have sold for $9.70 up from the cool purchase price of $2.30.
That's 322% in a few days folks!
Next Paper trade is a bit risky
Buy 5 NOV09 AAPL $585/CALLS @ $0.65.....
Just sold those QQQ Puts
Sell 8 NOV9 QQQ $65.50/PUTS @ $0.87 for 107% gain overnight.
Well it looks like I grabbed the Nov9 instead of Nov17 QQQ Puts. Still feel good about them as I see the volatility hits us tomorrow.
I have this heavy feeling about the market and the election. If anyone took our AAPL position, I'd look to exit here with just a small profit. I'd be holding the PCYC Puts a bit longer.
That brings me to my next paper trade.
Buy 8 NOV17 QQQ $65.50/PUTS @ $0.42
Has anyone voted yet? I went absentee this year and will probably continue to vote in this fashion. It's really convenient and no lines to wait in!
The last reports I saw this morning still has the race in a dead heat.
Sooooooo, did anyone take advantage of our PCYC & AAPL analysis? Both are looking good so far!
Great post and that is good advice.. go with my strengths. It was way to hard to try an juggle 6 or 7 different option trades last week. I think I will set a max of two
It's early but the futures are up slightly.....
http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/stocks/futures/
For the Bears out there.
I see a really nice breakdown with PCYC. It broke support on Friday with larger volume. And then we saw a big jump up in AH trading. I'm calling BS with that move back up!
Right now the Nov17 $55/Puts are priced at $2.30. I'm hoping Monday morning we do in fact see some folks buy at the open. The $55/Puts would drop in price and I'd be there to grab a few. I see a move down to around $45-$48 very likely so we could see some nice % gains for this play.
Good luck
Possible AAPL play for this week.
Right now it doesn't look good for AAPL. But what has really changed? Does anyone really think AAPL will just fall apart when the stores are still jammed packed with customers? Will this Christmas season mean folks will suddenly stop buying iPhones or iPads in favor of the newest Blackberry device?
When I look back over the past 3 years I see several occasions where AAPL pulled back to it's MA(200), only to see sharp moves back to the upside. History is on the side of the Bulls here. So what should we do? Well, for starters, know where your support and resistances are.
Right now I see support sitting around $565. This is where I'd love to make our move. I'm hoping to see a slip to there and then I jump in with this position:
Sell 2 Nov17 AAPL $560/PUT @ $8.40
Buy 2 Nov17 AAPL $550/PUT @ $5.39
Collect 2 X $3.01 = $602.00
Buy 1 Nov17 AAPL $600/CALL @ $5.00
The prices shown are from Friday's close so keep an open mind. This is an extremely bullish move folks and has an extremely large risk factor. If the PPS does not hold and falls much below the $560 price tag, we take some big hits. But if she bounces from here and moves anywhere above a 4% gain over the next 2 weeks, we will see huge gains!
So play at your own risk but if you do decide to run with the bulls, keep a close eye on her. Use a mental stop and get out quick if she just falls below that stop mark....
Good luck
It's been a very busy time for the wife and I so my paper trading has been a bit slow. Hopefully we have finally cleared all the red tape hurdles my wife needed to overcome (immigration issues). This should allow me to get back to the markets like I wish to.
I've got my eye on 2 trades for next week. Things will depend on how the market is reacting as far as entries to these positions. Tuesday night election results may cause the market to make some really volatile moves either up or down depending on who wins. So we need to be ready either way.
Hope everyone is enjoying their weekend.....
Scorecard Results thru 11/04/12
Here are the current results of our paper trading.
Long term: (total risked = $0.00)
If all positions were closed we would have $0.00
Short Term: (total risked = $420.00)
BUY 4 NOV WHR $105/Calls @ $0.75 (Currently @ $0.55)
Buy 10 Nov17 T $36/Calls @ $0.12 (Currently @ $0.10)
If all positions were closed we would have $320.00
Closed Positions: (total gained = $1,768.00)
2 Jan13 GLD $165/$170 Call Spread @ $0.95 (Closed @ $1.42 gain $94)
Buy 3 Oct26 SPY $145/PUTS @ $0.64 (Spent $192) on 10/18/12
Sold 3 Oct26 SPY $143.50/Puts @ $0.96 (Collected $288) on 10/19/12
Sold 3 Oct26 SPY $145/$143.50 Put Spread @ $0.85 (Collected $255) on 10/19/12
Total Gained from this trade = $351.00
1 Oct AAPL $705/$710 Call Spread @ $1.75 (Expired Worthless lost $175.00)
2 Weekly AAPL $680/Calls @ $1.00 (Expired Worthless lost $200.00)
1 Weekly AAPL $660/$665 Call Spread @ $1.70 (Closed @ $2.20 gain $50) "quick trade today 10/2/12"
1 Weekly AAPL $690/$695 Call Spread @ $0.41 (Expired Worthless lost $41.00)
5 Weekly CAT $90/Calls @ $0.08 (Expired Worthless lost $40.00)
6 Weekly CAT $87.50/Puts @ $0.33 (Closed @ $1.50 gain $702.00)
2 Weekly SLB $75/Puts @ $1.10 (Closed @ $3.05 gain $390.00)
2 Oct PCLN $665/$670 Call Spread @ $0.50 (Closed @ $0.50 broke even)
4 Oct SBUX $52.50/$55 Call Spread @ $0.49 (Closed @ $0.22 lost $108.00)
5 Weekly NFLX $60/Calls @ $0.40 (Closed @ $0.30 lost $50.00)
5 Weekly BIDU $120/Calls @ $0.34 (Closed @ $0.15 lost $95.00) week ending 9/28
3 Oct GOOG $655/$650 Put Spread @ $0.60 (Closed @ $0.30 lost $90.00)
3 Sep ISRG $520/$525 Call Spread @ $0.70 (Closed @ $1.25 gain $165.00)
4 Weekly FFIV $110 Calls @ $0.45 (Closed @ $2.70 gain $900.00)
5 Weekly BIDU $125 Calls @ $0.20 (Closed @ $0.03 lost $85.00) week ending 9/21
We also grabbed a few T
Buy 10 Nov17 T $36/Calls @ $0.12
Taking a shot here with a few WHR.
BUY 4 NOV WHR $105/Calls @ $0.75
Ya I've been through several hurricanes and it's nothing to take lightly. Hope you and yours made it thru fine and with no damage. Take care my friend....
BB what a rough nite...never seen wind like that. Looking out the window last night it looked like fireworks in the sky with so many power transformers popping. The Jersey shore got hit real hard... no snooky next year the house blew away where they stay at.
Just giving out a prayer to all our friends in the Northeast. Stay safe and batten down the hatches....
It just makes things fun for both of us. In the end it's a win-win situation......
(But you're right..... She's go'n down!!!)
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Moderator boca_bobby | |||
Assistants |
HOW DO YOU MEASURE UP AGAINST THE 3 MAJORS?
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MONTH | DEPOSITED | ADD PREVIOUS MONTH | SUB TOTAL | % GAINED | $ GAINED | $ TOTAL | DATE ACHIEVED |
JANUARY | $200.00* | $500.00** | $700.00 | 20% | $140.00 | $840.00 | 1/10/2013 |
FEBRUARY | $200.00* | $840.00 | $1,040.00 | 20% | $208.00 | $1248.00 | 1/15/2013 |
MARCH | $200.00* | $1248.00 | $1,448.00 | 20% | $289.60 | $1,737.60 | |
APRIL | $200.00* | $1,737.60 | $1,937.60 | 20% | $387.52 | $2,325.12 | |
MAY | $200.00* | $2,325.12 | $2,525.12 | 20% | $505.02 | $3,030.14 | |
JUNE | $200.00* | $3,030.14 | $3,230.14 | 20% | $646.03 | $3,876.17 | |
JULY | $200.00* | $3,876.17 | $4,076.17 | 20% | $815.23 | $4,891.41 | |
AUGUST | $200.00* | $4,891.41 | $5,091.41 | 20% | $1,018.28 | $6,109.69 | |
SEPTEMBER | $200.00* | $6,109.69 | $6,309.69 | 20% | $1,261.94 | $7,571.63 | |
OCTOBER | $200.00* | $7,571.63 | $7,771.63 | 20% | $1,554.33 | $9,325.95 | |
NOVEMBER | $200.00* | $9,325.95 | $9,525.95 | 20% | $1,905.19 | $11,431.14 | |
DECEMBER | $200.00* | $11,431.14 | $11,631.14 | 20% | $2,326.23 | $13,957.37 |
*The account will have $200 added to the portfolio each month for a total of $2,400
** The account was funded with $500 to start trading.
(Note: The following webinars work best using Internet Explorer as your web browser)
BOCA_BOBBY......
DEPOSITS MADE FOR THE $50/WEEK PORTFOLIO
DATE | AMOUNT | TOTAL TO DATE | DATE | AMOUNT | TOTAL TO DATE | DATE | AMOUNT | TOTAL TO DATE | ||
12/27/2012 | $500 | $500 | ||||||||
01/01/2013 | $200 | $700 | ||||||||
DATE | 1/16/13 |
CASH | $558.56 |
HOLDINGS | $1020.00 |
TOTAL | $1578.56 |
*Total Value is figured by taking the value of all holding at the end of the trading day and adding it to the cash on hand.
LATEST TRADES FOR THE $50/WEEK PORTFOLIO
TRADE # | DATE IN | SYMBOL | STRIKE | EXPIRE MONTH | TYPE | CONTRACTS | PRICE IN | COMMISH | PRICE OUT | COMMISH | CAPITAL IN | CAPITAL OUT | % GAIN / LOSS | NOTES: |
1 | 01/02/13 | GS | $135 | FEB16 | CALL | 2 | $3.35 | $6.25 | $5.475 | $1.44 | $676.31 | $1,093.56 | 60.2% | Basic Spread |
01/02/13 | GS | $140 | FEB16 | CALL | -2 | $1.79 | $1.30 | $2.875 | $6.33 | - $356.62 | -$581.33 | |||
2 | 1/7/13 | GS | $135 | JAN19 | CALL | 2 | $0.86 | $6.32 | $2.03 | $6.34 | $178.32 | $399.66 | 124.1% | Weekly Contracts |
3 | 1/11/13 | DE | $92.50 | JAN19 | CALL | 20 | $0.15 | $18.70 | $0.13 | $18.78 | $318.70 | $241.22 | - 24.31% | Price action disappeared so well sell for a small loss. |
4 | 1/14/13 | LNKD | $120 | JAN19 | CALL | 2 | $1.285 | $6.33 | $96.00 | $6.37 | $263.33 | $185.63 | - 29.51% | Stopped Out |
5 | 1/14/13 | GOOG | $720 | JAN19 | PUT | 2 | $3.62 | $6.32 | $7.60 | $6.37 | $730.32 | $1,513.63 | 107.3% | $700 is a short term target |
6 | 1/15/13 | SODA | $50 | JAN19 | CALL | 2 | $1.10 | $6.32 | $0.71 | $6.34 | $226.32 | $135.66 | - 40.1% | Hope to see a SP of $52 or higher by weeks end. STOPPED OUT. |
7 | 1/15/13 | GS | $140 | JAN19 | CALL | 4 | $1.17 | $7.70 | $0.70 | $7.72 | $475.70 | $272.28 | - 42.8% | Earnings Play. We need patience. This play was closed way to early and turned out a winner! |
8 | 1/16/13 | AAPL | $490 | JAN19 | PUT | 2 | $3.10 | $6.32 | $2.67 | $6.35 | $626.32 | $527.65 | - 15.8% | Tried to get cute and paid for it!! |
9 | 1/16/13 | AAPL | $515 | FEB01 | CALL | 4 | $16.69 | $7.71 | $6,683.71 | Back to a basic spread to help reduce risk! | ||||
1/16/13 | AAPL | $520 | FEB01 | CALL | -4 | $14.74 | $2.92 | - $5,893.08 | ||||||
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PERSONAL CHALLENGE PERFORMANCE BY THE NUMBERS:
STARTING CAPITAL $500 (2012) | JAN | FEB | MAR | APR | MAY | JUN | JUL | AUG | SEP | OCT | NOV | DEC |
MONTHLY DEPOSITS | $200.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
MONTH ENDING CAPITAL | $0.00 | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | X |
Monthly $ Gain | $0.00 | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | X |
Yearly $ Gain | $0.00 | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | X |
Monthly % Gain | 0% | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | X |
Yearly % Gain | 0% | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | X |
Butterfly Plays on Hold
THE GREEKS
The Greeks are a collection of statistical values (expressed as percentages) that give the investor a better overall view of how a stock has been performing. These statistical values can be helpful in deciding what options strategies are best to use. The investor should remember that statistics show trends based on past performance. It is not guaranteed that the future performance of the stock will behave according to the historical numbers. These trends can change drastically based on new stock performance.
Delta:
The Delta is a measure of the relationship between an option price and the underlying stock price. For a call option, a Delta of .50 means a half-point rise in premium for every dollar that the stock goes up. For a put option contract, the premium rises as stock prices fall. As options near expiration, in the money contracts approach a Delta of 1.
In this example the delta for stock XYZ is 0.50. As the price of the stock changes by $2.00 the price of the options will change by 50 cents for every dollar. Therefore the price of the options will change by (.50 x 2) = 1.00. The call options will have their price increased by $1.00 and the put options will have their price decreased by $1.00. The Delta is not a fixed percentage. Changes in price of stock and time to expiration will have an effect on the delta value.
Gamma:
Sensitivity of Delta to unit change in the underlying. Gamma indicates an absolute change in delta. For example, a Gamma change of 0.150 indicates the delta will increase by 0.150 if the underlying price increases or decreases by 1.0. Results may not be exact due to rounding.
Theta:
Sensitivity of option value to change in time. Theta indicates an absolute change in the option value for a 'one unit' reduction in time to expiration.
Vega (kappa, omega, tau):
Sensitivity of option value to change in volatility. Vega indicates an absolute change in option value for a one percent change in volatility. For example, a Vega of .090 indicates an absolute change in the option's theoretical value will increase by .090 if the volatility percentage is increased by 1.0 or decreased by .090 if the volatility percentage is decreased by 1.0. Results may not be exact due to rounding.
Rho:
Sensitivity of option value to change in interest rate. Rho indicates the absolute change in option value for a one percent change in the interest rate. For example, a Rho of .060 indicates the option's theoretical value will increase by .060 if the interest rate is decreased by 1.0. Results may not be exact due to rounding.
Disclaimer: All posts on this board are to be taken as the opinion of the poster. In no way is the information posted to be taken as investment advice or to be taken as the final word as to buy or sell any stock, option, bond, currency, etc. Posters on this board are not to be considered advisors in any way and all due caution should be taken when making financial decisions based on information conveyed in this forum. As with any investment decision, we would encourage everyone to do their very own due diligence and/or get the advice from a licensed professional for such advice. All the risks associated with any investor willing to buy or sell any stock, option, bond, currency, etc. because of information revealed here in this forum are solely on the individual making the investment and not on the poster of this message board.
Boca_Bobby Chartsletter Off Line for now.
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