Bob Brinker Data

[Kirk]

"I am not required to answer how I get to read Bob Brinker's newsletter.
Why?
Because that is a personal financial question. IMHO."

Hardly

Why?

(1) You give Brinker free advertising on SI and IHub Forums that he doesn't have to pay for.

(2) You attack people both personally and professionally who have been critical of Bob Brinker's methods.

In the past you have said you do not pay for a subscrption because you can read it for free in the library. Obviously you didn't value the bulletin access for timely buy and sell information enough to actually pay to get it.

Do you pay for your Marketimer now or do you get it for free from Brinker?

Full disclosure of why you promote Brinker and attack his critics makes this a must answer in my book.

[Burk]

I think it isn't central to the point at all. Typical of those bashing Brinker day and night now for years. Meanwhile, , he picks the bottom in March of 2002. That is very, very bad news for the bashers.

[SteveThompson]

Larry, you may believe it is personal financial question.

I believe it is a cop out.

[TREND1]

Kirk
Sorry. But I am not required to answer how I get to read Bob Brinker's newsletter.
Why?
Because that is a personal financial question.IMHO.

[TREND1]

marwick
You wrote
"It is my understanding that Brinker's model portfolios sold their equity holdings in January 2000, and re-entered the market in March 2003"

Comments:
(1)Brinker sold 60% in Jan 2000, not 100%
(2)Brinker went 100% invested on Mar 11, 2003
which turned out to be great call.
(3)Now let's see where he sells.

[Kirk]

Larry,

you missed my question about Brinker's Marketimer.

You posted here a few weeks ago that you didn't pay for it but you read it in the San Mateo Library.

The San Mateo library had their subscription canceled soon after that post.

Do you now pay to read Marketimer via a personal subscription, read a friend's or do you go without?

Perhaps Bob sends you one as payment for your assistance with advertising and attacking his critics?

Can you give a full disclosure today how you get your Marketimer information?

Thanks

Kirk

[Kirk]

Larry:
"(3)You know that Bob Brinker has a habit of just
forgetting about stocks.
(4)Hope your newsletter does not do the same."

Yes, Brinker makes no mention of his past bad recommendations that didn't work out well. UTEK, TEFQX, QQQ, Dumping Price Science and Technology after many years of under performance just before tech took off, talking abut Lucent on the show as it marched higher and higher, then saying “we gave up on it” after cornered by a caller when Lu became a penny stock.

I wish there was a requirement for newsletter writers to list everything they have recommended in the past in a table so people can look it up.

For me:

EVERY buy and sell, including $15 per transaction commission, is put onto a table that I update and give to subscribers monthly.

At the bottom of this table I show a graph of my portfolio value since inception so they can see how volatile it is.

To go one step further in full disclosure of the past I list the stocks I owned but no longer cover in my newsletter. I have a bit of text where I say what I learned from owning these stocks.

For example, I owned Lucent for a short time in my portfolio when I considered it as a falling knife catch. This is what I have for Lucent: “Happy to be out at $17.75! Some of your best decisions are what you decide to NOT buy more of.” I decided that the money would be better in CACS for a “telecom play.”

Larry, you give all sorts of tables in your writing but I can't find mention of where you disclose to your readers that you once tried to manage a paper portfolio then promptly lost 96% of the portfolio. Can you point to where you disclose this? Do you think is fair, if not dangerous, to hide from your readers you once had such a loss?

I am far from perfect, but at least I try to disclose all my paper portfolio transactions since inception.

[marwick]

It is my understanding that Brinker's model portfolios sold their equity holdings in January 2000, and re-entered the market in March 2003.

[Burk]

Way to go Larry. It's nice to finally see someone telling the truth about Brinker. Thanks for that!!

[TREND1]

Kirk
Bob Brinker's Models 1,2,3 would never take a hit like
your CACS just did.
Why?
Because Brinker's models 1,2,3 are funds and contain
many stocks.

[TREND1]

Kirk
(1)Take a look at this daily chart of CACS.
(2)Did your newsletter give a sell?
(3)You know that Bob Brinker has a habit of just
forgetting about stocks.
(4)Hope your newsletter does not do the same.
http://www.geocities.com/larrydudash2005/CACS.html

[Math Junkie]

"It occured to me that it makes sense to add the level of the markets at the time he gave his buy the dip levels. For example, the recent 1100 dip level was only 2% or so below the level of them market while others I believe were from much higher levels."

Here's the data - be my guest!

http://table.finance.yahoo.com/d?a=3&b=1&c=1996&d=0&e=11&f=2000&g=d&s=%5...

"As for following all the forums about Brinker such as you do, I just don't have the time."

Did someone ask you to follow all of them? I don't follow all of them consistently. I go through periods of following them more, and periods of following them less. It depends on what else I have going on at the time.

[Kirk]

"It's interesting that you omitted the one part of the post that was favorable to Brinker."

You don't think a successful buy the dips strategy is favorable? Hmmm... I'd think even getting one dip right would add value over saying nothing.

I am trying to turn your table into a summary of Brinker's buy the dips strategy to see if we get any insight. I really don't care about your opinions stated later that have nothing to do with the table and are already reflected in his measured performance numbers.

It occured to me that it makes sense to add the level of the markets at the time he gave his buy the dip levels. For example, the recent 1100 dip level was only 2% or so below the level of them market while others I believe were from much higher levels.

As for following all the forums about Brinker such as you do, I just don't have the time. I figure the good stuff eventually shows up here, on SI, on Suite101 or in my email box from others who follow all the goings on in great detail.

[Math Junkie]

"...relative to the June 8, 2004 buy level of below 1100, I remember at least one time in the past when he took credit for a buy level being triggered on an intraday basis...Of course, with TA enthusiasts Justa and ajtj finding reasons to expect new lows before then, that may become a moot point."

Well, that didn't take long!

(SPX close: 1093.88)

[Math Junkie]

I wrote something similar, but I notice that you have "sliced and diced" it.

Some corrections:

The first post you quoted contained no boldface in the original. (Yahoo does not have that feature.) It is conventional, in publishing, to include the note "[emphasis added]" in that situation. The post went on to say

"What does constitute timing, in my mind, is that he had to make a decision every month on whether to stay bullish or not, and he made that decision correctly every month for at least ten years. Unlike the bernardo, I believe he deserves credit for that."

It's interesting that you omitted the one part of the post that was favorable to Brinker.

http://finance.messages.yahoo.com/bbs?action=m&board=4687942&tid=utek&sid=4687942&mi...

The "comments" that you quoted were not comments at all, but samples of language from old issues of the newsletter, since dija was suggesting that I was misinterpreting it somehow.

http://finance.messages.yahoo.com/bbs?.mm=FN&action=m&board=4687942&tid=utek&sid=468...

With regard to the material you added relative to the June 8, 2004 buy level of below 1100, I remember at least one time in the past when he took credit for a buy level being triggered on an intraday basis, because one could have gotten that price through an ETF, and I don't recall seeing language in the newsletter that would prevent buying in that manner, so if the market goes on to new highs, I wouldn't be surprised if he claims credit for the 1100 buy point. Of course, with TA enthusiasts Justa and ajtj finding reasons to expect new lows before then, that may become a moot point.

Although I cited the predominance of mutual funds in Brinker's portfolios as my reason for using closing prices, on reflection I realize that a bigger reason I didn't look up the intraday prices was that it would have been time-consuming, and it looked like it would have been unlikely to change the overall picture significantly, if at all.

For completeness, I will add the following post from the same exchange:
___________________

"Plus, you didn't answer my question. Can you name even ONE individual who was bullish from 1993 through 1999, bearish from 2000 through 2002, and bullish again from March 2003 until now?"

I didn't answer your question because I agree with your point that Brinker deserves credit for remaining correctly bullish during the '90s, while many others jumped ship at various points, and I agree that this constituted correct market timing. The only point I disagree with is that the identification of lump sum buy levels constituted timing in and of itself, because the fact is that, from the time I subscribed in 1996 until his model turned unfavorable in 2000, he published buy levels in nearly every issue of the newsletter. The best one can say is that those buy levels reinforced his timing, because as you correctly pointed out, they probably helped subscribers stay the course during periods of great fear.

Incidentally, I see that Brinker's below-1100 target got triggered yesterday, at least on an intraday basis.

[Kirk]

Richard, did you post this data?

I've been adding to the table below. I believe the paragraph of text and comments below are your. True?

If so, good work.

Kirk


Back in January of 2000 I made a list of all of the Brinker buying opportunities I could find from the date my subscription started. The dates shown are the newsletter publication dates, which generally occur about one week into the month. Note that the publication of a suggested entry point did not mean that the entry point necessarily materialized. In fact, out of 22 buy levels identified, the market got down to those levels only three times. (I am counting July 98 through December '98 as one buy level, because although it was expressed differently each month, the buy levels were essentially the same.) In some months, no entry point was published. This did not necessarily mean that the prior entry point was rescinded, however, as there were occasions when Brinker took credit for a previously published entry point even though it had not been reiterated (e.g., October of '97). Sometimes the entry point given was based on the Dow, sometimes on the S&P, and sometimes both. Since Brinker primarily recommends mutual finds, the decision about whether a target was reached or not was based on closing prices.

 
 Newsletter Issue(s)    Buy Target  S&P Level   Target  
 Published in                         then     Reached? 
 . 
 April-May '96           Dow 5300                No 
 June-Sept '96           Dow 5400                No 
 January '97             Dow 6100                No 
 February '97            Dow 6500                No 
 March-April '97         Dow 6600               Yes 
 June '97                Dow 7000                No 
 July '97                Dow 7300               Yes 
 November '97            Dow 7300  
                      or S&P  900                No 
 December '97            Dow 7400  
                      or S&P  900                No 
 January '98             Dow 7500                No 
 March-April '98         Dow 8000                No 
 May-June '98            Dow 8500  
                      or S&P 1050                No 
 July '98                Dow 8650               Yes 
 August '98              Dow 8650  
                      or S&P 1100               Yes 
 September '98            Buy now               Yes 
 October '98              Buy now  
                    up to S&P 1100              Yes 
 November-December '98   S&P 1100                No 
 January-March '99       S&P 1120                No 
 April-May '99           Dow 8800  
                      or S&P 1160                No 
 June '99                S&P 1160                No 
 October '99             Dow 9600  
                      or S&P 1210               No 
 November '99            Dow 9900  
                      or S&P 1250                No 
 May ’03                 S&P  810       917      No 
 June ‘04                S&P 1100      1121      No 
 . 
 

.
Comments from original poster:

May 8, 1996: "In summary, we suggest staying bullish, buying any dips below DJIA 5300 if they occur, and looking forward to the challenge of the Dow 6000 level later this year."

April 7, 1997: "In summary, buy weakness under DJIA 6600 and look for a rally to new record highs by summer."

July 7, 1997: "Under 7300, we rate the U.S. market attractive for purchase for new subscribers who are underinvested."

July 8, 1998: "In the event the stock market tests the recent lows in the area of DJIA 8650, we would regard such a test as a buying opportunity for subscribers who find themselves underinvested."

June 7, 1999: "We view the S&P Index as attractive for purchase below the 1160 level."

He identified so many buy points that never materialized that I am unable to convince myself that the above constitutes timing.

To that, add:

June 8, 2004 “We view the market as attractive for purchase on dips below the 1100 level of the Standard and Poor’s 500 Index.”

I think we should add his current buy level of S&P500 at 1100. We have not closed below that level so I suppose we are still waiting? I recall he claimed we didn't have a bear market in 1998 because on a CLOSING basis the market only fell 19.8%, not 20%. What do you think? Still a "no" for 1,100?

1100 level given in Brimelow article here: http://www.investors.com/breakingnews.asp?journalid=21574545&brk=1



Date Close*
20-Jul-04 1,108.67
19-Jul-04 1,100.90
16-Jul-04 1,101.39

So far, not below.... on a closing basis.

[Math Junkie]

Stockalot, you implied that Larry wants to hide the truth about QQQ, and yet he has a listing of the QQQ calls in the thread header.

http://www.investorshub.com/boards/board.asp?board_id=1832

So how do you reconcile your claims with the truth? (This should be good.)

[Math Junkie]

And everyone knows, if Richard Palm said it, it must be true, right? <G>

[TREND1]

TAKE SURVEY How often do you read Bob Brinker Data Board?

http://www.investorshub.com/boards/board_surveymenu.asp?board_id=1832

[TREND1]

Stockalot
When investors follow some one like Bob Brinker most people know he is trying to sell a newsletter.
They know the newsletter writer is not God and will make mistakes. Bob's QQQ trades
were bad.

But the key is Bob Brinker also makes good calls too.

There are three choices:
(1)Make your own calls.
(2)Listen to your broker.
(3)Read some one like Bob Brinker.

For your own reasons you "hate" Bob Brinker.
And want every one else to know his bad calls and
"hate' Bob Brinker too.

Hey! That's OK with me.
Go right on hating Bob Brinker.
And I'll go on reading Bob Brinker.
And everyone else will do what they feel is the thing
they want to do.

But I do get tried of hearing about his QQQ trades over
and over and over and .......

[Stockalot]

Larry,
It is beneath your dignity to try to hide the truth here. You do want the facts so that anyone new to Brinker can judge the COMPLETE record don't you? You do know that Brinker is now HIDING his QQQ call don't you? You realize that Brinker told people in an urgent bulletin below to take up to 1/2 of the money he removed from the market (IN MODEL PORTFOLIOS) to buy QQQs in the 80s. He held that position all the way down below 20.00 and has now hidden the call. Anyone who followed Brinker's advice of selling funds from the portfolios and buying QQQs with the proceeds according to his URGENT bulletin has vastly underperformed what Brinker dishonestly claims as performance.

It is a matter of honesty and character Larry. With real money one can only invest the same money once without selling. In Brinker's world he can tell you to sell from a portfolio, buy QQQs with half of that money and then pretend that second advice did not occur. That is why the only real way to look at Brinker's performance is to look at the wrap fund, the BJ group. That performance tracks real money and doesn't allow the dishonest tact of leaving out advice for 1/3 of an entire portfolio that does not work out.


"Marketimer is projecting a significan countertrend rally which is expected to be led by the Nasdaq 100 index. We expect this rally to persist over a period of approximately 2 to 4 months and to generate Nasdaq gains in excess of 20% from the vicinity of the recently established closing low point.

We view this projected Nasdaq rally as a significant trading OPPORTUNITY for marketimer subscribers seeking potential short term capital gains. Our clear vehicle of choice for this OPPORTUNITY is the Nasdaq 100, which is traded on the American Exchange under the ticker symbol QQQ.

We recommend marketimer subscribers with AGGRESSIVE objectives invest 30% to 50% of existing CASH RESERVES in the QQQ shares to exploit this OPPORTUNITY. Also we recommend subscribers with CONSERVATIVE investment objectives invest 20 to 30% of existing CASH RESERVES in the QQQ shares to take advantage of this OPPORTUNITY.

Marketimer will provide follow up guidance for this short-term opportunity in regular monthly editions and if necessary in follow-up bulletins.

We recommend marketimer subscribers interested in taking advantage of this recommendation to ACT IMMEDIATELY."
http://www.suite101.com/files/topics/270/files/Brinker2000-QQQ-Bulletin.jpg

If you can show me Larry where Brinker issued a sell for the QQQs purchased ion the above advice with money taken from the model portfolios in Jan 2000, I will change my stance. Lacking that, you are simply being party to a distortion of the Brinker record. Brinker is good at that under his aliases on the net and on the radio. He would be proud of you.

[TREND1]

From: Jerry Somer Friday, Jul 16, 2004 12:00 PM
.
.
.
.

I'm simply putting forth the facts. Brinker's QQQ recommendation is put in proper perspective by the fact that he never put it in any of his portfolios within MarketTimer.

Translation:
QQQ has never been part of Bob Brinker's Models 1,2, or 3

[choad]

Stockalot, Now give me the 5yr. historical hi and lo of the vanguard gnma!(g)He ,at least, used to be a little venturesome but since that qqq call burnt his buns pablum is the modis oppurendi. I can tell you one less subscriber he has as a result of that qqq fiasco. Not because of the missed call but because of the subsequent smoke and mirrors.

[choad]

Larry, What difference did it make,you couldn't read it anyway and I pretty much knew what it said or am I missing something.Now that next post helps me remember,damn.

[Stockalot]

Larry, Why are you so anxious to decieve people wanting to investigate Brinker? You are trying to hide the most important information they should know.

You claim:

"I think every one knows about Bob Brinker's bad advice on QQQ."


Please show me one public document from Brinker other than the BJ group performance that shows Brinker's QQQ advice from October 2000 for up to 1/3 of AN ENTIRE EQUITY PORTFOLIO, Larry.

I have been over his site with a fine tooth comb and one can only conclde that the guy you are hyping here is hiding this call. Don't you want the truth? Why do you want to hide arguably the largest and most important and most HIDDEN by Brinker call that he ever made? After all you, Brinker and a host of others are all the time touting the few times he was right.

You never talk about his bear hunt in the late 80s and early 90s that was TOTALLY WRONG. Now you don't want a link to this advice that you and Brinker want to hide that went out to EVERY SUBSCRIBER in an URGENT BULLETIN when the QQQS were trading in the 80s. He held this position to this very day--though you cannot find it anywhere now.


""Marketimer is projecting a significan countertrend rally which is expected to be led by the Nasdaq 100 index. We expect this rally to persist over a period of approximately 2 to 4 months and to generate Nasdaq gains in excess of 20% from the vicinity of the recently established closing low point.

We view this projected Nasdaq rally as a significant trading OPPORTUNITY for marketimer subscribers seeking potential short term capital gains. Our clear vehicle of choice for this OPPORTUNITY is the Nasdaq 100, which is traded on the American Exchange under the ticker symbol QQQ.

We recommend marketimer subscribers with AGGRESSIVE objectives invest 30% to 50% of existing CASH RESERVES in the QQQ shares to exploit this OPPORTUNITY. Also we recommend subscribers with CONSERVATIVE investment objectives invest 20 to 30% of existing CASH RESERVES in the QQQ shares to take advantage of this OPPORTUNITY.

Marketimer will provide follow up guidance for this short-term opportunity in regular monthly editions and if necessary in follow-up bulletins.

We recommend marketimer subscribers interested in taking advantage of this recommendation to ACT IMMEDIATELY."

Does it look less dishonest and less threatening to you when you can't read it off the actual paper from the link Larry?

[TREND1]

Stockalot
I think every one knows about Bob Brinker's bad advice on QQQ.
It is time to look forward and discuss that actions that
one should take when Bob Brinker gives his next "Sell Signal".

Also please do not advertise suite101 on IHUB.
That is not very nice.
Just copy the whole reference text over to IHUB.

If Kirk wants to put adds into IHUB he should contact Matt.

[Stockalot]

That's fine Larry, but what really messes up that table that Brinker would like to sell newsletters from is that he told people to take up to 1/3 of a portfolio from selling model portfolio holdings and buy QQQS in the 80s. He held them all the way down. For anyone following his advice, they could not use those same monies they already had in the QQQs to pretend to invest the same money in March 2003. Brinker added QQQs in the 20s to each portfolio in that move to hide the 1/3 of a portfolio of QQQs he had sucked many subscribers in when they were trading in the 80s.

You can't invest the same money twice Larry. That makes your table totally meaningless and dishonest for those really wanting to know what happens if they follow Brinker's advice. Here's what he sent that you left out.

http://www.suite101.com/files/topics/270/files/Brinker2000-QQQ-Bulletin.jpg

[TREND1]

Long-Term Marketimer Model Portfolio Performance

Portfolio Dollar Value
on 6/30/2004 Percent
Increase
Portfolio I
($20,000 value on 1-1-88) $193,677 868%
Portfolio II
($20,000 value on 1-1-88) $156,687 683%
Portfolio III
($40,000 value on 3-1-90)
(this portfolio has a 50% fixed-income allocation) $158,001 295%



--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Performance in Recent Years
10 years ended 6-30-04 for all Model Portfolios:
Portfolio I: 367%
Portfolio II: 278%
Portfolio III: 166% (balanced portfolio with 50% fixed-income position)
versus Wilshire 5000: 195% (VTSMX)

5 years ended 6-30-04 for all Model Portfolios:
Portfolio I: 98%
Portfolio II: 64%
Portfolio III: 47% (balanced portfolio with 50% fixed-income position)
Active/Passive: 53% (this portfolio started March 1997)
versus Wilshire 5000: (5%) (VTSMX)

3 years ended 6-30-04 for all Model Portfolios:
Portfolio I: 46%
Portfolio II: 43%
Portfolio III: 32% (balanced portfolio with 50% fixed-income position)
Active/Passive: 36%
versus Wilshire 5000: 2% (VTSMX)

1 year ended 6-30-04 for all Model Portfolios:
Portfolio I: 23.8%
Portfolio II: 23.1%
Portfolio III: 13.4% (balanced portfolio with 50% fixed-income position)
Active/Passive: 21.7%
versus Wilshire 5000: 20.7% (VTSMX)




--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Marketimer Reviews

Timer Digest named Bob Brinker's Marketimer as the number one stock market timing investment letter for the ten-year period through December 31, 2003 with a total return of 196% versus 155% for the Standard and Poor's 500 Index.

Hulbert Financial Digest ranks Bob Brinker's Marketimer number one for stock market timing for the past 10 years and for the past 15 years. Marketimer's stock market timing applied to the Wilshire 5000 Index has generated a compound annual return of 16.5% for the past 10 years, versus 11.3% for the Wilshire 5000 Index. For the past 15 years, Marketimer's timing has generated a compound annual return of 14.8%, versus 11.5% for the Wilshire 5000 Index.


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

[Stockalot]

Larry, with your irrelevant conclusions based on what you or someone else did with Brinker's advice you make my point.

To claim that this advice based on using the same CASH RESERVES that Brinker raised in Jan 2000, doesn't count proves the bogus nature of your work here.

"Marketimer is projecting a significant countertrend rally which is expected to be led by the Nasdaq 100 index. We expect this rally to persist over a period of approximately 2 to 4 months and to generate Nasdaq gains in excess of 20% from the vicinity of the recently established closing low point.

We view this projected Nasdaq rally as a significant trading OPPORTUNITY for marketimer subscribers seeking potential short term capital gains. Our clear vehicle of choice for this OPPORTUNITY is the Nasdaq 100, which is traded on the American Exchange under the ticker symbol QQQ.

We recommend marketimer subscribers with AGGRESSIVE objectives invest 30% to 50% of existing CASH RESERVES in the QQQ shares to exploit this OPPORTUNITY. Also we recommend subscribers with CONSERVATIVE investment objectives invest 20 to 30% of existing CASH RESERVES in the QQQ shares to take advantage of this OPPORTUNITY.

Marketimer will provide follow up guidance for this short-term opportunity in regular monthly editions and if necessary in follow-up bulletins.

We recommend marketimer subscribers interested in taking advantage of this recommendation to ACT IMMEDIATELY."
http://www.suite101.com/files/topics/270/files/Brinker2000-QQQ-Bulletin.jpg

Because you didn't understand the clarity of the advice above or chose for any reason not to follow it does not change the fact he gave the advice for the same money he took out of the market in Jan 2000. Thus he could not be given credit for investing these same monies in March 2003 that he recommended using in Oct 2000.

Because you didn't take his advice and I said he was dangerous and it was a stupid recommendation, doesn't change the fact he made the advice and people trusting him (goobers and geezers these days) took the advice.

One can readily see that he was anxious for all subscribers to take advantage of that bulletin. While Larry wants to hide it, the wrap fund that Brinker advises under the banner of the BJ group did the exact same thing as he promoted in the newsletter. The difference of couse was that it was "REAL MONEY" and Larry and Bob Brinker could not hide the results by saying "We didn't include the QQQs in our performance"--You see in the link below the BJ group deals in "REAL MONEY"

http://www.suite101.com/files/topics/270/files/BJGroup2000-QQQ-Memo.jpg

So when you judge Brinker's performance the most obvious benchmark is how he did in PUBLISHED data using ALL OF HIS ADVICE investing REAL MONEY. There is only ONE SINGLE document in the whole history of Brinker that I am aware of that shows his performance in such conditions.

Thus here is the result you get when you take ALL OF BRINKER"S advice with REAL MONEY.
http://www.suite101.com/files/mysites/Br...

You see you can't spin and hide performance when he uses REAL MONEY Larry. Sorry but all else is simply opinion or spin--totally useless to the serious investor.

[TREND1]

Stockalot
(1)I did not buy the QQQ's
(2)Did you buy the QQQ's ?

[Stockalot]

Larry incredibly you claimed:

"2)I guess your hang up is that you feel Bob meant that excess
cash in Models #1,#2,#3 should also be used for the QQQ.
(3)But this does not make sense to me.
(4)Why?
(5)Because Bob Brinker recommended stocks and funds outside
the Models in the past. examples UTEK,MSFT,KMAG,STII,TEFQX
see the IBOX(title) for the whole list."

Now Larry where did the cash reserves come from in the model portfolios? Do you think Brinker was talking only about cash reserves from selling MSFT and VOD when he sent this letter to every subscriber telling them to invest up to half of the CASH RESERVES they had raised in Jan. 2000 on the QQQs?

Larry please show where anyone reading the following URGENT QQQ BULLETIN would not have used money they took out of the porfolios to buy QQQs. Please show me where it says to only use money in "cash reserves" raised from sources outside model portfolios. Your latest list proves you are not being honest about Brinker's biggest screwup.

"Marketimer is projecting a significant countertrend rally which is expected to be led by the Nasdaq 100 index. We expect this rally to persist over a period of approximately 2 to 4 months and to generate Nasdaq gains in excess of 20% from the vicinity of the recently established closing low point.

We view this projected Nasdaq rally as a significant trading OPPORTUNITY for marketimer subscribers seeking potential short term capital gains. Our clear vehicle of choice for this OPPORTUNITY is the Nasdaq 100, which is traded on the American Exchange under the ticker symbol QQQ.

We recommend marketimer subscribers with AGGRESSIVE objectives invest 30% to 50% of existing CASH RESERVES in the QQQ shares to exploit this OPPORTUNITY. Also we recommend subscribers with CONSERVATIVE investment objectives invest 20 to 30% of existing CASH RESERVES in the QQQ shares to take advantage of this OPPORTUNITY.

Marketimer will provide follow up guidance for this short-term opportunity in regular monthly editions and if necessary in follow-up bulletins.

We recommend marketimer subscribers interested in taking advantage of this recommendation to ACT IMMEDIATELY."
http://www.suite101.com/files/topics/270/files/Brinker2000-QQQ-Bulletin.jpg

[TREND1]

Stockalot
(1)Bob Brinker has a long history of changing Models #1,#2,#3
from one type of fund to another. Mark Hulbert supports this
when he rated Bob Brinker among the top 5 best newsletters.
(2)I guess your hang up is that you feel Bob meant that excess
cash in Models #1,#2,#3 should also be used for the QQQ.
(3)But this does not make sense to me.
(4)Why?
(5)Because Bob Brinker recommended stocks and funds outside
the Models in the past. examples UTEK,MSFT,KMAG,STII,TEFQX
see the IBOX(title) for the whole list.
(6)I guess if everyone felt the same way as you, his newsletter
would not get any renewals and would die out.
(7)That has not happened.

[Stockalot]

You depend on Junk Science and an untrustworthy guru

Well Larry, that is quite a stretch in credibility. As you know Richard Palm is on record as saying that it is dishonest for Brinker not to include his QQQ call in performance numbers. Why don't we let people decide if the following recommendation sent to every subscriber as an urgent bulletin-truly a one of a kind event-- should be ignored in Brinker's reporting as you and he are trying to do?

"Marketimer is projecting a significant countertrend rally which is expected to be led by the Nasdaq 100 index. We expect this rally to persist over a period of approximately 2 to 4 months and to generate Nasdaq gains in excess of 20% from the vicinity of the recently established closing low point.

We view this projected Nasdaq rally as a significant trading OPPORTUNITY for marketimer subscribers seeking potential short term capital gains. Our clear vehicle of choice for this OPPORTUNITY is the Nasdaq 100, which is traded on the American Exchange under the ticker symbol QQQ.

We recommend marketimer subscribers with AGGRESSIVE objectives invest 30% to 50% of existing CASH RESERVES in the QQQ shares to exploit this OPPORTUNITY. Also we recommend subscribers with CONSERVATIVE investment objectives invest 20 to 30% of existing CASH RESERVES in the QQQ shares to take advantage of this OPPORTUNITY.

Marketimer will provide follow up guidance for this short-term opportunity in regular monthly editions and if necessary in follow-up bulletins.

We recommend marketimer subscribers interested in taking advantage of this recommendation to ACT IMMEDIATELY."
http://www.suite101.com/files/topics/270/files/Brinker2000-QQQ-Bulletin.jpg

One can readily see that he was anxious for all subscribers to take advantage of that bulletin. While Larry wants to hide it, the wrap fund that Brinker advises under the banner of the BJ group did the exact same thing as he promoted in the newsletter. The difference of couse was that it was "REAL MONEY" and Larry and Bob Brinker could not hide the results by saying "We didn't include the QQQs in our performance"--You see in the link below the BJ group deals in "REAL MONEY"

http://www.suite101.com/files/topics/270/files/BJGroup2000-QQQ-Memo.jpg

So when you judge Brinker's performance the most obvious benchmark is how he did in PUBLISHED data using ALL OF HIS ADVICE investing REAL MONEY. There is only ONE SINGLE document in the whole history of Brinker that I am aware of that shows his performance in such conditions.

Thus here is the result you get when you take ALL OF BRINKER"S advice with REAL MONEY.
http://www.suite101.com/files/mysites/Br...

I am sure you wanted such accurate documented information Larry. If you do not agree please show me Brinker's published data including the QQQ recommendation in any of his portfolios outside of the BJ group.

I know you don't want to fool anyone into thinking that he has published such data. I know that you are aware that he has hidden the effects ot the QQQ bulletin listed above in all of his performance numbers. I am certain you see that as dishonest after having read the bulletin.

I am glad you help you set the record straight. When you take all of Brinker's advice and use his benchmark--notice that from March 2000 through March 2004, he underperformed. Hardly great news for a marketimer in the worst bear in many years huh? LOL

[TREND1]

Stockalot
What is wrong with this advice?
Copied from the IBOX(Title)
.....................................
Part 1. What to expect from Bob Brinker's Major Buys and Sells.
Bob Brinker's major calls are in general very good.
(a)Buy when he says major buy.
(b)Sell when he says major sell.
(c)Do not use his sells to go short.

Part 2. Bob will keep you informed on Models #1,2,3 updates.

Part 3. Ignore Bob Brinker's stock/Fund recommendations
outside his Models #1,2,3 or at least use your own stops.
Why?
Bob does not always give sells, example QQQ trades.
........................................................

[TREND1]

Stockalot
Just for people reading your numbers.
(1)Your numbers are for BJ group.
(2)Your numbers are not for Bob Brinker's Newsletter.

Translation:
(1)BJ group did trade QQQ
(2)Newsletter did not trade QQQ. IMHO.
And the opinion of Mark Hulbert.

[Math Junkie]

Marketimer Model Portfolio Performance in Recent Years:

10 years ended 6-30-04 for all Model Portfolios:
Portfolio I: 367%
Portfolio II: 278%
Portfolio III: 166% (balanced portfolio with 50% fixed-income position)
versus Wilshire 5000: 195% (VTSMX)

5 years ended 6-30-04 for all Model Portfolios:
Portfolio I: 98%
Portfolio II: 64%
Portfolio III: 47% (balanced portfolio with 50% fixed-income position)
Active/Passive: 53% (this portfolio started March 1997)
versus Wilshire 5000: (5%) (VTSMX)

3 years ended 6-30-04 for all Model Portfolios:
Portfolio I: 46%
Portfolio II: 43%
Portfolio III: 32% (balanced portfolio with 50% fixed-income position)
Active/Passive: 36%
versus Wilshire 5000: 2% (VTSMX)

1 year ended 6-30-04 for all Model Portfolios:
Portfolio I: 23.8%
Portfolio II: 23.1%
Portfolio III: 13.4% (balanced portfolio with 50% fixed-income position)
Active/Passive: 21.7%
versus Wilshire 5000: 20.7% (VTSMX)

Source: http://www.bobbrinker.com/portfolio.asp

NOTE: None of the above accounts for the Oct. 2000 QQQ buy recommendation. A member of Silicon Investor posted what Portfolio I would have done since Jan. 2000 with that included:

Performance of BB portfolio 1 (aggressive), from 1/5/00 to 7/2/04 and with the QQQ trade included, relative to two relevant benchmarks:
BB Portfolio 1 +2.2%
NASDAQ Composite -48.3%
Vanguard Growth Index -32.4%

Source: http://www.siliconinvestor.com/stocktalk/msg.gsp?msgid=20277483

The author states that he obtained the above numbers by tracking P1 on a weekly basis with and without the QQQ trade for 4 years.

http://www.siliconinvestor.com/stocktalk/msg.gsp?msgid=20278161

[Stockalot]

I see on another thread you were encouraging people to post performance for Brinker on your site. Ok, I'll help you out with the only performance numbers ever given for Brinker's advice using "REAL MONEY".

We finally have some REAL Brinker performance numbers.

The problem with Brinker discussions is that so often like his words and his newsletter recomendation, there are multiple interpretations and no way to measure his performance with real money being invested. Now finally we have some real performance numbers on Brinker's ability put to the test in the BJ group portfolio. GE recently put out some performance numbers for his BJ group aggressive Portfolio which seems to mirror what Brinker calls portfolio I in his newsletter. Of course the BJ group invests real money according to Bob's advice. Let's see how that went.

http://www.suite101.com/files/mysites/Brinker/BJG_P1.jpg

These are extrapolations from the chart and they may vary slightly from the actual dollar amounts but came within a fraction when I began in 98 and extroplated the dots through 2004.

1) Sept 98---March 99

Brinker Aggressive BJ Portfolio + 28%
Benchmark porfolio + 28%

2) March 99 thru March 2000

Brinker's BJ portfolio + 28%
Benchmark portfolio + 17%

3) March 2000 thru March 2001

Brinker BJ Porfolio (28%)
Benchmark Porfolio (18%)

4) March 2001 thru March 2002

Brinker BJ Portfolio (4%)
Benchmark Porfolio 0 (flat)

5) March 2002 thru March 2003
Brinker BJ portfolio (10.2%)
Benchmark portfolio ( 20%)

6) March 2003 thru March 2004
Brinker BJ porfolio 35%
Benchmark Porfolio 45%

An interesting period is the 4 yr period between the beginning of the bear market and 2004.

7) March 2000 thru March 2004

Brinker's BJ portfolio (9.6%)
Benchmark portfolio (8.0%)

Of the 6 consecutive time frames selected the following occured.

On one occasion the results were the same

One one occasion Brinker's BJ portfolio gained substantially more than the benchmark

On one occasion the the benchmark gained substantially more than Brinker's BJ portfolio.

On two occasions Brinker's BJ portfolio lost more than the benchmark.

On one occasion the Benchmark lost more than Brinker's portfolio

If you begin counting at the beginning of 99--the last year of the bull market, Brinker beats the benchmark with annual gains of 3.4% to 2.8% for the benchmark for a _+0.6% advantage.

If you begin counting at the beginning of the bear market in 2000, for the 4 year period Brinker trails the benchmark by 1.6% losing 1.6% more than the benchmark from the beginning of the bear through March 04.

Thus Brinker's outperformance of the buy and hold index of 0.6% was primarily due to a superior performance in 99-the last year of the bull market. If you compare the performance since the beginning of the bear market March 2000, Brinker"s BJ portfolio using his timing, underperforms the buy and hold index.

It seems quite odd that the fractional outperformance Brinker shows in the only performance figures I've ever seen on the man that involves real money, is based on an outsized performance during a few months of the last bull market, soon to be off the 5 yr charts. It is very significant, given Brinker's claims about marketiming that those lines so closely mirror each other and in fact Brinker's management lags the buy and hold benchmark since the beginning of the bear in early 2000.

[Davidk555]

Here is an excerpt from my last newsletter which provides summary and commentary of Bob Brinker's Moneytalk. If you like it, you can find out more by visiting my website, http://www.BeginInvesting.com

BOB BRINKER SAYS THE SUMMER DOLDRUMS ARE HERE

Bob Brinker Comment: This was a very quiet week for the stock market. The changes in the major indices were very small. The Dow was only up 6 points for the week. The S&P 500 dropped only 1.5 points, and the Wilshire 5000 fell 11.8 points, which is only about .1%. This is the time when people leave town for their summer vacations and the summer doldrums hit Wall Street.

Editorial Comment "EC": The Stock Trader's Almanac rebuts the widely held belief that summer produces the greatest rally of the year. The so-called "summer rally" was defined by Ralph Rotnem as the lowest close in the Dow in May or June, to the highest close in July, August or September. The Almanac points out that there are rallies in every season of the year, but the summer is actually the weakest statistically speaking. Nevertheless, a rally is a rally and over the last 40 years, the summer rally produced on average gains of 9.2% using Mr. Rotnem's guidelines.

source, 2004 Stock Trader's Almanac (p. 70), Yale Hirsch and Jeffrey A. Hirsch editors, http://www.stocktradersalmanac.com

BOB BRINKER'S VIEW OF THE LONG TERM TREND

Brinker Comment: Bob said that we had an indication that the secular bull market from 1982-2000 came to an end during the speculative peak in the first quarter of 2000 which ushered in a new bear market megatrend. We are now in year 5 of that secular bear megatrend, which Bob thinks will last anywhere from 8 to 20 years. Nothing Bob sees right now, however, suggests to him that this secular bear market will end anytime soon.

BOB BRINKER'S OVERALL VIEW OF THIS CYCLICAL BULL MARKET

Brinker Comment: Bob said he feels that we began in earnest a cyclical bull market in March, 2003 which was the successful and final test of the initial bottom that occurred in October, 2002. Bob said he has referred to this as a market "double bottom" which is where you get a low for the market, followed by a failed rally, and then a crucial retest which determines whether you get a buying opportunity. Bob said we saw the initial low in October, 2002. This was followed by a failed rally into the winter of 2002, and then a successful final retest of the low area in March, 2003. On March 11, 2003, the S&P 500 closed at the 800 level, just 3% from its prior low which is when Bob issued his buy signal when he "saw what he needed to see."

EC#1: As I have discussed in prior newsletters, I believe that Bob decided to return to a fully invested position after seeing the market had a 90% down day which occurred on March 10, 2003. In fact, it was based on the market's close of March 10th (not March 11th), that Bob's timing model issued its "buy signal" and Bob recommended investors return to a fully invested position based on the market's close that day. I am aware of at least two other advisors who turned bullish at the same time, both in large part due to the 90% down day phenomenon in my opinion.

EC#2: I realize that Bob likes to refer to the market as a "double bottom" but I maintain that it is more accurate to refer to this as a "triple bottom." Bob likes to use the S&P 500 area of 800 as evidence that it had tested the lows of October. However, the S&P 500 actually CLOSED at 797.70 on July 23, 2002! That was the first bottom in my opinion, followed by the lowest close which occurred in October, 2002. The third bottom occurred in March, 2003, but the October 2002 saw levels significantly lower in the Nasdaq Composite.

BOB BRINKER SAYS THE EASY MONEY HAS BEEN MADE

Brinker Comment: The stock market is up over 40% since the buy signal in March, 2003. However, Bob thinks that the "easy money" phase of the cyclical bull occurred from March, 2003 until earlier this year. The consolidation period, which we are in now, has been very modest. Even now, the S&P 500 is within 3% of its recovery high, and has never been more than about 6% from its recovery high. Nevertheless, since the easy money was made during the initial 40% thrust from last year, we will now have to fight for our profits and be patient.

EC: I agree, and that is why I am trying to identify inflection points such as the buy signal I identified on May 17th, which so far marks the correction bottom this year.

THE CYCLICAL BULL MARKET HAS NOT ENDED

Brinker Comment: As we move through this consolidation phase, we will have to be patient in a market that can be more than frustrating as it has shown so far this year. AT THIS TIME, however, Bob said he does NOT see the evidence that this cyclical bull market is over.

EC: The cyclical bull market we have seen thus far comports with other cyclical bull markets. If you would like to see my analysis of all cyclical bull market in the last secular bear market, just e-mail me at [e-mail]

HOW LONG DOES BOB BRINKER THINK THE CYCLICAL BULL MARKET WILL LAST?

Brinker Comment: Bob said cyclical bull markets tend to last 1 to 3 years. However, how long it lasts doesn't really matter. What matters is that you are on the right side of the market when it does end, whether its in 1 year, or 3 years or even longer. Bob said his stock market timing indicators have done a very good job of identifying major moves in the stock market and he is going to stick with those indicators and not try to predict when the cyclical bull market will end. As of right now, however, Bob does not think the cyclical bull market is over. Bob will wait until the indicators give the all clear.

EC: No surprise here. The indicators that Bob tracks in his stock market timing model don't suggest to me that Bob will be turning bearish anytime soon. I will update those indicators in a future newsletter.

WHAT HAPPENS NEAR THE END OF A CYCLICAL BULL MARKET?

Caller: This caller wanted to know what will happen with jobs and interest rates toward the end of a cyclical bull market. Bob said that these are economic issues, and the economy, just like the stock market, is subject to cyclical moves. One of the first places that you will see a change in the economy is in the jobs market. You will see the absence of new jobs, you will see layoffs and if you are living in a housing community that is sensitive to new jobs, than you could see that impact the prices of housing as well.

EC: The stock market can turn, however, before the economy turns. Remember, the stock market is a discounting mechanism as investors try to anticipate what the future will hold for corporate earnings and the economy, usually six months in advance.

INVEST IN THE WILSHIRE 50000

Caller: This caller has $100,000 to invest and wanted Bob's recommendation on a security to invest in. Bob said he likes the idea of investing in the Wilshire 5000 because it will basically earn you the rate of return of the U.S. stock market. If you purchase a low expense fund that tracks the Wilshire 5000, you will get a tax efficient investment, diversification and you are assured of not under performing the market as so many managed mutual funds are prone to do.

EC: The Vanguard Total Stock Market Fund (Ticker: VTSMX) is the way to go if you want to own the Wilshire 5000 through a no load mutual fund. It only has an expense ratio of 20 basis points or 0.20%. I prefer to own the Wilshire 5000 through the exchange traded fund VIPERS (ticker: VTI) because you can trade it in real time. The only downside is you have to pay a commission when you buy and sell it, but a discount broker minimizes those transaction costs.

TREASURY INFLATION PROTECTED SECURITIES

Caller: This caller subscribes to Bob's Marketimer newsletter and observed that he made a recommendation to reduce holdings in some TIPS mutual funds. Bob said he made that recommendation some time ago, although he still keeps a small portion of his portfolio in TIPS. The caller then asked what Bob thought the optimum conditions were for TIPS? Bob said the optimum situation is what we saw a couple of years ago when the base rate was up near 3%. Recently, the base rate got down into the ones and Bob's concern was that people would demand a higher base rate and they have and that is why you have seen depreciation in the share price.

EC: Looking for inflation protection? Check out this article entitled, "Inflation-Proofing Your Portfolio" which you can access at this link:

http://tinyurl.com/2n6zm

STARTING OFF SMALL

Caller: This caller's 16-year old wants to learn about investing and purchase some stocks. Bob said he would like a young person to learn about investing, rather than actually start investing in stocks. The caller asked if Bob knew of a way to invest small amounts of money into stocks. Bob encouraged the caller not to adopt this route. Instead, he said he would rather the child wait until their early 20s, keep the money liquid in a money market account and start investing after college.

EC#1: I take a different stance on this issue than Bob. I think it can be very beneficial for children to start investing in stocks at a young age. It gets them interested in the concept of investing, and can be financially rewarding to boot. Moreover, there are now companies that allow you to buy stocks for a very small amount per transaction. One such company is Sharebuilder which allows you to start buying stocks at just $4 per investment. Learn more about Sharebuilder at this link:

http://www.sharebuilder.com/

EC#2: Another way to invest in stocks without paying commissions is through what are called "Drips." Drips is actually a nickname for the acronym DRP which stands for Dividend Reinvestment Plan. A related concept are the Direct Stock Purchase Plans (DSPs). These plans are offered typically by blue-chip companies where you can invest small amounts of money by purchasing stock directly from the companies. Want to learn more about this type of investing? Start here and follow the links:

http://www.fool.com/school/Drips.htm

David Korn, editor of http://www.BeginInvesting.com

E-mail me at: mailto:[e-mail]

DISCLAIMER: I am not associated with ABC Radio Networks, Moneytalk or Bob Brinker and this service is neither sanctioned by, nor written under the auspices of ABC Radio Networks, Moneytalk or Bob Brinker.

[TREND1]

Notice:
(1)This board is not for attacking Bob Brinker.
(2)This board is not for defending Bob Brinker.
(3)If you desire to do (1) or (2) please visit

on SI go to
http://www.siliconinvestor.com/stocktalk/subject.gsp?subjectid=10880

on IHUB go to
http://www.investorshub.com/boards/board.asp?board_id=1877

(4)This board is for Bob Brinker Data only.
Example: Actual past trades and calls of Bob Brinker.

[TREND1]

CaMoose

(1)From my IBOX(Title)
Part 3. Ignore Bob Brinker's stock/Fund recommendations
outside his Models #1,2,3 or at least use your own stops.
Why?
Bob does not always give sells, example QQQ trades.

(2)It is my understanding that the QQQ trades, like some
other trades were outside his model# 1,2,3

(3)It is also my understanding that the QQQ, along with a
few other stocks are mentioned in his newsletter each month.

(4)If you are looking for a "perfect man", Bob is not.
But his recent 2000 sell and Mar 2003 buy have been right
on the money. IMHO.

(5)All market timers run hot and cold. When he gives a sell
we will all have to make up our own minds about "our money".

[CaMoose]

Question on QQQ trades.
Bob Brinker's latest newsletter has QQQ position still long.
Does any one know if this QQQ position has remained in
his newsletter since he first bought QQQ in 2000 ?
Or did it get posted there in Mar 2003?


Larry - It is my understanding, and I'll let others correct me if I am wrong, that his QQQ position remained in his newsletter for many many months following his first buy signal. However, as the recession deepened and the QQQ's went further south, it was no longer discussed in the editorial portion of his monthly newsletter. It may, however, have been banished to a more remote part of the letter under 'trades'. Since the recovery, which began in March 2003, I have not seen, nor heard, any mention of it.

Moose

[TREND1]

Interesting post about Bob Brinker on SI
http://www.siliconinvestor.com/stocktalk/msg.gsp?msgid=20016982
..........................................
To:Larry Dudash who wrote (21090)
From: Jerry Somer Tuesday, Apr 13, 2004 1:39 AM
Respond to of 21122

Brinker has been listing the Qs -- as well as VOD, MSFT, Spyders, Diamonds, et cetera -- in his newsletter under the heading of INDIVIDUAL ISSUES. He has often written about the QQQ trades in an earlier section of the newsletter. He has never included discussion of QQQ trades in the sections devoted to model portfolios.
Bob makes "on-the-record recommendations" as well as "off-the-record recommendations". "On-record" recommendations are covered by his model portfolios, and these portfolios form the basis of his newsletter performance evaluation. "Off-record" recommendations are strictly for traders who are often willing to take very large risks, and should be ignored (or simply treated as market discussion) by everyone else.

Brinker also does day trading and swing trading, and he has talked about this many times on his radio show. He has also stated that he often does this with Microsoft and Intel, as he considered them in the past to be good trading stocks. However, he has always stated that unsophisticated listeners not do as he does. From the tone of his conversation, I always considered his QQQ trading advice in the same light. Anyone who took his advice should only blame themselves for any bad outcome, which also allows them to credit themselves for any good outcome.
................................................................

[TREND1]

IBOX Updated as of 4/12/04
Note: QQQ trades are now together

[TREND1]

IBOX Updated 4/11/04
...........................
Update of my conclusions dated 4/11/04

Part 1. What to expect from Bob Brinker's Major Buys and Sells.
Bob Brinker's major calls are in general very good.
(a)Buy when he says major buy.
(b)Sell when he says major sell.
(c)Do not use his sells to go short.

Part 2. Bob will keep you informed on Models #1,2,3 updates.

Part 3. Ignore Bob Brinker's stock/Fund recommendations
outside his Models #1,2,3 or at least use your own stops.
Why?
Bob does not always give sells, example QQQ trades.
........................................................

[Kirk]

I found 3 articles with a search for "BJ Group" at investmentNews.com

http://www.investmentnews.com/news/archive/990517-16-01.shtml
http://www.investmentnews.com/news/archive/000807-01-001162.shtml
http://www.investmentnews.com/news/archive/010312-08-002105.shtml

Key Points:

#1 Mr. Brinker, 57, who serves as chairman of the business, also publishes Marketimer newsletter and is host of a weekly radio talk show from southern Florida.

#2 BJ Group is thought to be highly profitable. It employs just four professionals and charges customers an annual 1.5% of assets under management to maintain individual portfolios using no-load funds available through fund supermarket operator Charles Schwab Corp. The company's minimum account size is $100,000.

worth, oh, $25 million

Based on current market conditions, and an estimated $6.8 million in 1999 fees, BJ group could fetch as much as $25 million, says John O'Shea, a vice president in the mergers and acquisition group of Investment Counseling Inc. in West Conshohocken, Pa.

Yet it is unclear what price Mr. Jacobs and Mr. Brinker could command for their business if they were no longer there to attract clients. Virtually all BJ Group's 2,200 accounts were drawn to the business because of its two newsletter writer-owners.

#3 BJ Group's 2,247 accounts through December 1999 held an average of $273,000. The advisory requires at least $100,000 to open an account and allocates customer funds into no-load mutual funds available through Charles Schwab Corp.'s fund supermarket.

Annual fees range from 1.5% of assets for accounts less than $500,000 to 0.6% for accounts under $4 million, generating an estimated $6 million annually.

[TREND1]

Investment News ~ August 07, 2000
Small advisers proving hard to consume
Michael Fritz

Though several ambitious efforts to consolidate small-fry financial advisers have stalled, Centurion Capital Group Inc. appears to be off to a solid start.

The La Jolla, Calif., financial services holding company last week acquired the BJ Group Inc., an obscure but successful mutual fund allocation business run by two high-profile investment newsletter publishers, Sheldon Jacobs and Robert Brinker.

``Everyone is trying to fit acquisitions into one neat hole, and you can't do it that way. We are trying to be different,'' says Joseph Duran, president of Centurion Capital Management, a subsidiary that targets advisers managing more than $250 million who usually are willing to relinquish day-to-day business operations.

Centurion executives say the ultimate purchase price of BJ Group depends on its achievement of certain profit goals, but an investment banking source estimates that the business may have fetched $15 million to $20 million.

BJ Group's assets under management - $613 million through last December, according to regulatory filings - have been growing at 30% to 50% annually over the last six years, according to Centurion.

Mr. Brinker, publisher of the newsletter Marketimer, host of the weekly network radio show ``Moneytalk'' and chairman of BJ Group, declined to comment. Mr. Jacobs, president of the advisory business, did not return telephone calls.

Tough sledding

Outside of Centurion and National Financial Partners in New York, which is continuing plans to acquire 200 to 300 high-end, insurance-oriented advisory firms over the next four years, few financial adviser consolidation efforts appear to be on track.

Canadian financial services marketer Assante Corp. of Winnipeg, Manitoba, has yet to act on an acquisition plan unveiled last fall. It wants to add $6 billion in assets under management by acquiring 20 fee-based advisers over 18 months.

Centurion, which markets wrap accounts, money management and trust services to 700 advisers and stockbrokers, announced plans last November to accumulate up to $10 billion in assets by acquiring 10 to 12 advisory firms annually over the next three years. It manages $1.4 billion, not including BJ's assets.

The BJ Group's acquisition by Centurion's capital management unit is the third such deal this year. In the first quarter, Centurion's Financial Advisors Inc. unit bought Hinds Financial Group Inc., a Lakewood, Colo., planner managing $105 million, and Hesse Financial Advisors, a Roswell, Ga., firm managing $125 million.

Some industry observers say the independent nature of advisers makes them poor candidates for a large-scale consolidation play.

``By definition, they are difficult to buy,'' says W. Patrick Clarke, president and CEO of Clarke Lanzen Skalla Investment Firm Inc., an Omaha, Neb., marketer of separate accounts sold through independent advisers. ``I would also think they would be hard to manage after you owned them.''

Dividing the spoils

While Mr. Brinker and Mr. Jacobs no longer will run the company, they have signed multiyear contracts to continue providing asset allocation advice to BJ clients, says Mr. Duran.

The deal doesn't include Mr. Jacobs' No-Load Fund Investor newsletter or Mr. Brinker's Marketimer publication.

The private equity unit of Putnam Lovell Securities Inc., which bought a 24.5% stake in Centurion last October, is backing Centurion's consolidation effort (InvestmentNews, Nov. 15, 1999). The holding company also is financing acquisitions through a $25 million revolving line of credit with Unionbancal Corp. in San Francisco.

BJ Group's 2,247 accounts through December 1999 held an average of $273,000. The advisory requires at least $100,000 to open an account and allocates customer funds into no-load mutual funds available through Charles Schwab Corp.'s fund supermarket.

Annual fees range from 1.5% of assets for accounts less than $500,000 to 0.6% for accounts under $4 million, generating an estimated $6 million annually.

Mr. Brinker, 58, and Mr. Jacobs, 69, are the principal shareholders. Mr. Jacobs' two children - Roy, 35, a Phoenix real estate agent, and Julie, 31, a financial adviser in Denver, each held 10% to 25% stakes in the business, according to a recent regulatory filing.

All BJ Group's employees are remaining and have received ``enhanced'' salaries and retirement savings, and health plan coverage as part of the deal.

Centurion's Mr. Duran hopes to increase the 14-year-old firm's asset base by attracting additional business from its existing clients through new product offerings such as separate-account management and trust services, as well as stepped-up marketing assistance.

In addition, Centurion plans to largely end BJ Group's longstanding custody and trading relationship with Schwab. It will transfer the bulk of the accounts to Centurion's Phoenix trust company unit, which has custody of $1.7 billion and operates its own fund supermarket.

Page 1
Category current
Keywords centurion

[TREND1]

From MARK HULBERT about Bob Brinker

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid={845D4009-9B10-4B80-9B38-B47F0163EFA3}&siteid=mkt...

Hot hands are bullish

By Mark Hulbert, CBS.MarketWatch.com
Last Update: 12:01 AM ET March 1, 2004


ANNANDALE, Va. (CBS.MW) - I've got some good news, for a change.


HULBERT FINANCIAL DIGEST
Order your copy of the HFD Monthly Newsletter

Search the HFD database with Hulbert Interactive

Get a Profile of any newsletter tracked by HFD.

Discover the best performers with HFD Honor Roll.


From a select group of five top-performing market timers, three currently are fully invested, and two are partially invested. Their average equity exposure is 84 percent.

Before discussing their specific market forecasts, let me review how I selected them.

The first criterion I used takes advantage of the fast-approaching one-year anniversary of the market low that was recorded just prior to the beginning of the Iraqi war. I selected those newsletters that have had a significantly higher equity exposure in the period since then than over the 12 months prior.

In other words, which market timers correctly anticipated that the last 12 months would be a lot more bullish than the previous 12?

The second criterion focused on the stock market's top in March 2000: Of the timers that satisfied my first criterion, how many had a significantly lower exposure over the 12 months following that market top than over the 12 months prior?

Not surprisingly, not very many newsletters satisfied both these criteria. But I didn't stop there.

My third and final criterion was that a timer needed to have beaten the market over the last five years on a risk-adjusted basis.

The five newsletters that satisfied all three criteria are listed alphabetically in the accompanying table, along with their recommended equity exposures as of the end of February.

Newsletter Recommended Equity Exposure at the end of February
All Star Fund Trader 100%
Bob Brinker's Marketimer 100%
Dennis Slothower's On The Money 29%
Investor's Guide to Closed-End Funds 42%
Medical Technology Stock Letter 151%

Here's what each of these timers currently is saying about the stock market.

All Star Fund Trader

Editor Ron Rowland recently turned to the Peter Sellers movie "Being There" to describe his market outlook: "We're still in a bull market, and to paraphrase Peter Sellers... 'we like to watch.'"

And Rowland has been watching since last May, when he moved from the 0 percent position he had maintained for most of the previous year. He moved first to a 50 percent invested position, and in June became fully invested.

To be sure, there are no guarantees that Rowland will remain fully invested during March, or the rest of the year, for that matter. He notes that the major market averages largely remain in a sideways trading pattern, and that "the market has some work to do before it can break out" of that pattern.

On the other side of the coin, however, Rowland thinks it is positive that the market was able to find support in late February, thus ending what to some had looked like the beginning of a much bigger correction.

For now, Rowland remains fully invested.

Bob Brinker's Marketimer

Of the five timers that made my list, Brinker's market-timing calls probably came closest to catching the precise tops and bottoms. His buy signal a year ago came on March 12, just a day after the March 11 close of the Dow Jones Industrials Average ($INDU: news, chart, profile) at 7524, which was its low for 2003.

And his previous sell signal came on Jan. 10, 2000, only slightly more than two months prior to the market's high that occurred in mid-March.

Before proceeding to discuss what Brinker is now saying, I need to say a few words to the several thousand of you who e-mailed me the last time I said something nice about Brinker.

Yes, I know all about Brinker's October 2000 forecast of a bear market rally and his disastrous recommendation to purchase the Nasdaq 100 Trust (QQQ: news, chart, profile), which at that time was trading around $80.

But for the several years that Brinker stood behind this recommendation, he consistently chose not to make this trade a formal part of his model portfolios. Note carefully that this wasn't an after-the-fact decision on his part, but made before he knew whether the trade would be profitable.

Because the Hulbert Financial Digest takes a rigorously empirical approach to performance monitoring, his HFD ratings -- which are based on his model portfolios -- did not suffer from this QQQ trade.

If you disagree with how the HFD dealt with Brinker's advice, simply ignore this section of my column -- and leave my long suffering e-mail inbox alone.

Brinker remains on his March 12, 2003, buy signal. He regards "the risk of a recession this year as essentially zero," because of which "corporate earnings prospects remain excellent."

Brinker acknowledges, however, that bullish sentiment among investors is very high right now. He therefore suggests "that subscribers... avoid chasing stock market rallies when adding new monies to equity positions... We believe the best strategy for those seeking to add to equity holdings is to take a dollar-cost-average approach."

Dennis Slothower's On The Money

Slothower is least bullish of my group of five timers.

Among the several factors that concern Slothower, one is recent weakness in the Nasdaq Composite index ($COMPQ: news, chart, profile). "When the Nasdaq trails [the rest of the market] or leads downward, the trend is normally bearish and portends a down market."

Slothower is also concerned that sentiment is too bullish: "Now that everyone in the marketplace has been willing to take on risk, it is evident that risk is high and it is time to wait on the sidelines."

Lest you believe that Slothower has turned into a perma-bear, he stresses that the correction he thinks the market is in right now "will establish a base of promising returns for the remainder of the year."

Investors Guide to Closed-End Funds

Editor Thomas Herzfeld gave the rationale in the January issue of his newsletter for why he is not fully invested: "After a strong year..., we are a little nervous going forward. Concerns of a terrorist threat overhang the market. Frankly, we are challenged about whether to position our accounts for a major disaster, which of course, we hope will never occur. But if it were to happen, we would no doubt want to have ready cash to buy into a sell off."

Medical Technology Stock Letter

The appearance of this newsletter in my gang of five might surprise you, since editor John McCamant focuses primarily on the biotech and medical technology sectors.

But it also is true that you would have beaten the market over the past five years by buying and selling an S&P 500 index fund using the recommended equity exposures in his model portfolios of medical technology stocks.

And, just as already mentioned in the case of Brinker's newsletter, the Hulbert Financial Digest takes a rigorously empirical approach to determining which newsletters satisfy various performance criteria.

McCamant is bullish. He views recent market weakness "as part of a healthy correction. We are reassured by some of the earnings that have been reported, which have easily exceeded estimates, and the continued signs of strong economic growth... The results for the first quarter will be helped by comparisons with a weak first quarter last year. The combination of monetary and fiscal stimulus gives the economy a powerful tailwind. With this positive environment, it continues to be a time to add to attractive stocks on their periodic dips."

New feature: Hulbert Interactive

A brand new CBS MarketWatch feature lets you research stocks and mutual funds using the same in-depth data we use: The Hulbert Financial Digest database. After 20 years of compiling this data, we're excited to now be able to share it with you. Hulbert Interactive

Editor's note: The most recent edition of the Hulbert Financial Digest is now available by e-mail or regular mail. Highlights this month include:

Too many people jumping on the same stock? Maybe they know something you don't.
Most- and least-popular stocks and funds
Profiles of Value Line Investment Survey, The Chartist, Investment Quality Trends, and MPT Review
For more information or to subscribe to the Hulbert Financial Digest, click here.

Mark Hulbert is the founder of Hulbert Financial Digest in Annandale, Va. He has been tracking the advice of more than 160 financial newsletters since 1980.








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[TREND1]

Question on QQQ trades.
Bob Brinker's latest newsletter has QQQ position still long.
Does any one know if this QQQ position has remained in
his newsletter since he first bought QQQ in 2000 ?
Or did it get posted there in Mar 2003?

Thanks in advance

[TREND1]

SURVEY RESULTS: Do you currently read Brinker Newsletter?

 
 NO        = 9 
 YES       = 6 
 No Answer = 1 
  
 Total     = 16 
 

[brinkershill]

"Because that was my interest."

Ok, if that makes you feel more important,
but it is apparent that noone else shares
your interest here. I wonder why? Good-bye,
and keep doing what interests you and nobody
else.