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What are these big fish up to, with these pre-negotiated, off-market trades?
100+K block just traded, changed the PPS a penny.
Despite the more optimistic side of all of us yearning to get back to $30 or more, I believe if Amgen or anyone put in a tender offer to acquire ADXS for $15 tomorrow, it would easily be accepted by both our Board and our majority of investors, because frankly ADXS has had four years under the recapitalized company to get us to a higher base that would set the stage for a buyout at a higher value but has failed. I don't think our investor base is willing to risk another four years that could be a repeat of the last four in which investors poured more than $200 million into the company at an average $12 price only to see their investment fall to the present level. Some key investors have already bailed such as Broadfin, Pictet and T Rowe.
So our interim-CEO is an M&A guy and he will be the interim CEO for the foreseeable future. Putting the pieces together I bet there's a good chance we never get a permanent CEO and that Lombardo's task is two-fold: 1) first srike a large licensing deal on Europe and/or HER2 and/or HOT to get our valuation up, then 2) sell the company outright say at a 100% premium to the higher base valuation following whatever deal(s) he strikes.
Not sure I'm following you on that one.
"70% ownership in runner up stocks tend to shrink quickly with dilution as value goes up."
70% ownership in runner up stocks tend to shrink quickly with dilution as value goes up. I too believe in your suggested valuation but it is not easy to hang on
sell the farm for 15 bills and move on...Im guessing those 15 bills are Hamilton's
"70% ownership by tutes is a good starting point for shorting, especially when some tutes are hedgies. Why clear them of ulterior motives?"
Some may have purchased in order to short. But the majority were riding the wave, a red hot stock in a red hot immuno sector in a raging biotech market. It's easy to question that judgment in hindsight, but at the time everyone was believing AXS should be valued at at least $1.5 billion, based on Aduro alone, and many other similar companies valued in the billions. I, for one, believe ADXS is worth $1.5b today.
Yes scott, I always claimed there are posters who can post rings around other posters and objections just fall short. The problem is you never know who the the true prophet is. Never use posts as trading guidelines
Not sure I agree, Bourbon. When the tutes bought in at 19, including Adage, the stock still had alot of upward momentum. I would say that speculators and traders were more to blame for the rise to 30; upward manipulation was not really even necessary. I think some of the tutes, including Adage, decided to short their own shares when the news leaked about the impending FDA hold. Plus, of course, many naked shorts, mainly hedgies and mm's. I still believe that this whole short attack started in earnest when certain parties got notice of the FDA hold (or the possibility of it, meaning the fact of the patient death) well in advance. Of course there was shorting prior to that; it's a clinical biotech. But the hold is what prompted this long and abusive short scheme.
Yep. We sucker into justice & china & Dan Oconor & pumpers.
Now only hope left is Mr. Lombardo.
70% ownership by tutes is a good starting point for sorting, especially when some tutes are hedgies
Why clear them of ulterior motives?
Yup,for those that don't remember or weren't around, there was a poster who had garnered great following and fanfare and was POUNDING table running banner type posting after posting declaring "20 bagger was imminent, tutes trying to steal our shares, don't let them," etc.; I believe this stayed many a LTSH (I know I'm guilty of not taking anything off table) from taking profits during the run to $30+.
Never said it was "all" manipulation. Tutes bought as high as $19. But I would bet from there to $30 it was mostly manipulation, as it fell like a stone from that height. Certainly was an extra $11 of profit for shorts.
Feel sorry for anyone who got suckered in at that price. They got nuked.
The run to 30 was not all manipulation. Tutes ownership went from 10% to 70% during that period.
I agree, the short interest has declined. The question is by how much, and is the number accurate.
This stock was manipulated both ways....the rise to $30 was fake, as is the current suppression at $4. Neither reflects what a normal market would have valued the Company at. By jacking it up with J&E (most likely a hedge fund employee) stoking enthusiasm with legit tech info while warning us not to sell as it tanked and the short position was built at the highest price. Then the numerous assaults, including knowing about the hold ahead of time, but ultimately knowing that they had the stock or warrants to ride it down and cover while all along keeping the long position. Never seen anything played like this in 30 years of investing.
I am hoping the desperate situation of the company has management focused on getting the stock price up, or just getting the Company sold, so this endless price destruction can finally end and longs can get a decent return.
I guess the shorts covered 1/3.
I agree. 9/30 short interest should be around 7 million
Seeing the huge uptick in volume after the 15th coupled with Adage' s sale arguably to use to cover a short position, I expect we will see a decrease in short interest for the period ending Sept 30.
Gantor, it certainly does seem as if the short cabal has always expected to be able to get out of their position, perhaps with an offering that never materialized, resulting in a prolonged suppression due to an inability to find sufficient shares elsewhere. Could also be Adage, fully hedged by warrants and/or options, as you suggest. But I get the feeling that if they are not hedged then something has to "give" sometime soon. And I'm betting that if Lombo can remove dilution from the equation at least through the EMA process, this may be a breaking point.
The original post from Dew was not talking about HER2 with PETX.
"So our PETX deal isn't going to happen now? No USDA approval?" He is talking about PETX.
Evidence that perhaps Kroll started shorting when ADXS decided to let Adage in instead.
17,600 hours worked a month and sitting below $5 while the EMPLOYEES COLLECT A BIG PAYCHECK ???? Anybody else see SOMETHING WRONG WITH THIS PICTURE ???????? ADXS WOW
Tin, I don't really disagree in principle. Even if events weren't so clean and linear there definitely appears to have been a planning and implementation aspect to this (IMO).
But I see it as 2 stages. Stage 1 was the Build (late 2014 - June 2015). Stage 2 was the Protection of that position and drive towards monetizing it (June 2015 - Current day).
It didn't start in June 2015, it started in December 2014. Look closely, the "suppression" was here all along, it just wasn't evident during the run to $30 because euphoria outweighed the damping effect.
Look closely at the short interest from Dec 2014 through Mar 2014 especially. It's a real eye opener. Particularly in Dec and Jan before Pearson, there is no explanation for the enormous jumps in short interest. Also compare November 2014 with December 2014.
(Yeah, I said I wasn't posting anymore. I feel this point is important enough to do so anyway.)
Mpreorder, all I can say is that nothing would surprise me at this point. I can't logically explain what I have watched over the last 3 years.
I mentioned in my last post to FBG about the supreme, almost odd, level of confidence that the suppressing entity appeared to have demonstrated on an almost 2 1/2 run that was mostly a straight down slope.
It was the kind of confidence expressed by an entity that almost knew with absolute conviction they couldn't lose and had 0% chance of failure.
The kind of conviction expressed say by an entity who knew they were playing with a free money position insured by a boatload of warrants? Perhaps even some access to a certain level of insight on what moves ADXS was or wasn't likely to make?
Again I don't have answers to my questions, but the circumstances here since 2015 certainly raise many for me.
Exactly, HER2 was put on hold due to the high cost-benefit of pursuing it. It has not even really begun yet, and so it is a long way off and will cost alot of money. So they de-prioritized it. But if a BP wants to license it and fund all development, ADXS will do that. Or sell it.
Trying to wrap my brain around the HER-2 EU patent that was filed last year?
http://ir.advaxis.com/press-releases/detail/1197/advaxis-expands-intellectual-property-for-lm-technology
Thanks very much for the info.
I'm new to ADXS :)
The only trials with HER2 with results are the canine osteosarcoma trials, which were successful and should lead to approval later this year.
There was a trial planned that is listed as "not recruiting" for HER2 expressing solid tumors on clinicaltrials.gov. So to my knowledge there haven't been any trials in humans using HER2.
Lombardo seems to be selling or licensing this construct to raise capital for other uses.
FBG, we may now share a similar belief today about what the company should consider, but we each got here taking very different roads.
Unlike you I am (was) not afraid of dilution that was used to finance organic growth of the company into a mostly stand alone entity. I understood what DOC was trying to do. But his plan was DOA once the short cartel drove the PPS below $10 and never let it up from there. Whatever mistakes DOC made, none of them justified the ultra low PPS and constant suppression mode that started in June of 2015 and never ended, extending all the way thru last week.
For example you keep blaming DOC for the collapse after Amgen because he gave a direct placement to Fidelity. But you continue to confuse the symptom with the cause. The attack on the PPS was already over a year old by then.
I am certain they would have taken the PPS back down after Amgen regardless. Why? Because somebody shorted a big chunk of shares around June 2015 at $20ish. Whoever that entity is, they appear to have been determined...and oddly enough...supremely confident they were going to be successful driving the PPS into the ground and being able to lock in massive profits on their short position at some point.
who said AT-014 will not be approved?
I had a thought while reading this. What if the forced selling of our constructs isn't just the result of the manipulation. What if it is the intended effect of it?
Conspiracy theory I know, but it sheds a different light on who may be behind all this manipulation. Instead of some hedge fund, it's some BP.
Gantor, you and I agree on one issue: I would rather have the company sold than to issue a single share at this price. Where I disagree is regarding the likely effect of Lombardo raising enough non-dilutive cash to get us through EMA. The possibility of dilution is inhibiting some tutes from buying in and taking a shot at a huge profit upon EMA approval. At the same time, the short cabal is taking advantage of the possibility of dilution by easily manipulating the stock in a low demand environment. Plus, they hope that any dilution would cause some to sell out, which is their goal. Alternatively, the big shorts may hope to get a piece of any offering in order to cover.
Re the next short number, I'm not convinced that the cabal will not somehow manipulate the number to make it appear that there is less covering than there really has been. For example, shorting to themselves or a conspirator, in a no-risk position.
Fbg, back at you. My disagreement with your view is not personal. To clarify, I have conceded that the one significant mistake that DOC made was not recognizing that the pps suppression made his "retain rights and issue shares" strategy untenable, even if it was the correct strategy when the stock was much higher. However, that does not excuse, and neither does it warrant, the grossly exaggerated decline in share price, which is the result of manipulation, and nothing more. The manipulation is malicious and not warranted. And the current pps is completely unwarranted. The way out of this is simple: Lombardo must either bring in non-dilutive cash or sell the company. If they dilute now, then a significant part of the company will have been effectively stolen. It would be better to sell out than to dilute, in my opinion. But I am confident that Lombardo will raise enough cash to get through the EMA process, which is key.
Good post Gantor. Yes, given the erosion of the share price, higher cash burn and now solid late stage pipeline, it may be the best outcome to sell the company outeight now unless they can strike a EU deal with significant upfront non dillutive cash.
Iggy obviously I agree, but again this brings us back to...
- Who and why? Even those 2 answers may be less important than when does it end or what is the endgame? I am hoping we potentially get more clarity from the 10/10 short report.
- In my opinion the Amgen deal was a very solid collaboration, although I wish DOC had gotten cash instead of the commitment to purchase $30M in stock. But since that Amgen deal (including best ever GOG results, SPA, etc, etc) was all manipulated away as nothing, even with $150M-$160M in the war chest at the time, I'm not sure we can assume any deal announced by Lombardo will significantly increase the PPS. I sincerely hope I am wrong.
- In theory I have always agreed with DOC's go it alone strategy vs breaking up and selling off pieces of franchises. The company and technology valuation would be far greater eventually if they successfully made it as a stand alone entity. But interestingly enough the relentless attack on the PPS seems to have now prevented that. The company needs cash and will almost be forced to accept less now instead of more later (if successful).
- IMO DOC's vision of a future $6B valuation for ADXS was probably legit...but only IF they succeeded as a stand alone. Breaking it up seems to lessen the overall value. My belief is they may never recover from the damage done to them by taking away their currency (PPS level) to finance their own organic growth. It's why I believe the ADXS BOD should consider a sale of the company now, before they break it up into blocks.
Dew, so what your saying is ADXS's Her2 trials were bad and that's why we're shelving it for now? That it's not because we need to conserve "CASH" at this time? Boy I read it differently than you. I thought we shelved HER2 because we needed to preserve cash for our lead construct so we wouldn't have to dilute down here at these suppressed share pricing? You said if they were good they would be planning new trials to go ahead with Her2 ? Was Lombardo then lying to all of us? Please explain your remarks here. Your saying just the opposite of our CEO. Do you know more than us here? Are trials not that good on HER2? Are we in a big lie here? Is Lombardo not telling us the truth? Inquirying minds would like to know! Dew too many here respect your opinions and to say that our Her2 trials weren't that good or we would be planning more trials is quite a testimonial to our platform and that Lombardo isn't telling us the whole truth with Her2 trials. Please explain why you think that.
He's not taking about PETX, which still expects approval this year. He's talking about ADXS licensing HER2 human construct which is different than the vet construct.
Blue, agreed, Lombardo seems to have a great M&A background, just what ADXS needs at this juncture.
While I have to agree with on that,I still say that you harp on the same talking points to the point of making true longs sick to their stomach`s. Dan`s gone man,,please move on to something positive for our new CEO`s sake. Let`s give him the fair shake he deserves as he rights the pasts missteps to achieve our ROI. You have a large presence here and it could be used for good instead of what you`re doing on here for the last year and a half. I,and many other longs really want to see you adjust your posts to highlight the promising future now,rather than continuing to rehash the past negatives,,,time for you to change back to the poster for Adxs that you used to be because the new CEO is a totally different man than our last. Oh,and please stop with the low ball buyout nonsense,,forget the buyout talk for right now,,talk about the ridiculously low market cap. Minus cash and the stock`s valuing Adxs`s everything for around 2 bucks a share..Even you understand how much of a joke that is,and you should be telling everyone you know to buy down here,because this share price won`t be here for long,,it might be gone this week. We should be getting more analyst upgrades soon,as well as getting news of new institutional ownership.
So our PETX deal isn't going to happen now? No USDA approval? I thought those trials were going good? Her2 was going to cost too much money to continue trial is what I think. I believe Lombardo is setting Her2 aside for now so we can focus on our lead construct AXAL. Since it's our leading candidate to be approved before anything else. I think it was the smartest thing our CEO has done since becoming the interm CEO. Preserving cash for our most needed trials to date that he feels will bring in revenues that will allow us to not DILUTE and settle for mediocrity in our share pricing. Those trials were going good it's not like we quit because they were not giving good results we just need the cash right now for our closest approved vaccine which is AXAL . Trust me we actually have someone at the helm that is fiscally responsible and actually wants to add value to ADXS rather than dilute us into oblivion! Quote: If the trials were that good we would be planning additional trials instead of licensing it out? Dew I totally disagree with you assumption on our Her2 trials. I totally agree with Lombardo on backing off on so many trials in our pipeline! It's very exspensive and we need our cash to bring our lead vaccine to EMA approval. Everyone is entitled to there opinion but preserving capital at this time is a must unless your short and want DILUTION. Lombardo has ruffled some feathers lately and a couple of entities are not one bit too happy about it! Dan made some promises he wasn't able to fulfill and Lombardo isn't going to help them either! Manipulation is well thought out on there part but Lombardo is doing what he can to create shareholder value inspite of these attacks! We in a battle and this battle won't quit until we get some kinda of approval on AXAL .
Two companies, CTMX and ADXS, with two near identical deals with Amgen. One of these companies is back above its 2015 high while the other is sitting near a multi year low. The company sitting near a multi year low is a Phase III company while the company sitting at a multi year high and valued over 4x the Phase III company is only a Phase I company.
Fact or fiction? Hard to believe it is fact.
Igantius, you seem like an articulate smart person. What's surprising to me is that you never once acknowledge mis-steps by management and that there have been problems with the way that the company was managed under O'Connor that itself contributed to shorts taking such an interest in manipulating ADXS. At the end of the day the CEO is responsible for the performance of the company, which is why O'Connor is no longer with ADXS. It's simplistic and naive to constantly claim the only reason for the poor stock performance is manipulation.
Raja, he's saying sell it for $15 share price.
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