Awesome Stocks

[MrFinnie]

It is going to be an amazing week for everyone and a unique point in our journey.

The big news about NXGB will be released early next week to update shareholders.

Top News: https://bit.ly/NXGB_NEWS

NxGen Brands, Inc. is a publicly-traded company under the symbol NXGB.

The company is building a profitable nutritional supplement company,

comprising several brands. www.nxgenbrands.com.

[ProfitScout]

$EVKRF: Grid Battery Metals Inc. Featured on The Investing News Network "As the supply crunch for EV battery metals intensifies, car manufacturers are increasingly taking charge of their own supply chain" Check out the full article below.
https://investingnews.com/getting-ahead-in-the-electric-vehicle-race/

[bar1080]

And: "One thing to keep in mind: XXXX isn't an ETF, it is an ETN, which technically makes it more similar to a debt instrument than a stock."

I doubt whether one investor in 100 knows the difference between an ETF and an ETNote

https://www.morningstar.com/news/marketwatch/20231205227/is-this-a-stock-market-or-a-casino-new-4x-leverage-sp-500-etn-met-with-caution

[bar1080]

Along that line: "At some point, the SEC has to come in and say, 'Enough is enough.' This is a stock market, not a casino," he said at the time.

During a phone interview with MarketWatch on Tuesday, Saluzzi said his comment from six years ago still applied.

"If you're going to go to 3x, 4x, why not go to 10x? Why not go to 100x? What are we doing here? Are we investing, or are we gambling? Is this a stock market, or a casino?" Saluzzi said.

After decades on Wall Street, Saluzzi is wary of products that appear to subvert the intended purpose of the stock market as a vehicle for companies to raise capital and instead make it look like a casino designed to separate unsophisticated investors from their hard-earned money.

Longtime Wall Street short seller Jim Chanos, who recently closed up shop, offered up a tongue-in-cheek joke, asking on X if traders would be able to buy the ETN on margin?

https://www.morningstar.com/news/marketwatch/20231205227/is-this-a-stock-market-or-a-casino-new-4x-leverage-sp-500-etn-met-with-caution

[bar1080]

I don't *think* IJH uses any leverage. I wouldn't want it if it does. I'll check more when I get some time. AFAIK it has tracked closely with the mid cap market.

Both Vanguard and Fidelity won't accept penny stock orders or orders for highly leverage products. Both firms are pretty paternalistic toward their customers which is why I use both of them. Few leveraged products can pass a "suitability" test.

Also no reputable broker wants penny stock players because they're nothing but trouble and their average account size is tiny. Apt to lead to litigation when grandpa blows up his family exchequer

[gfp927z]

Bar, Vanguard stopped accepting purchase orders on leveraged products in 2019. Seems like a wise move in general, and also because these leveraged funds could conceivably pose a solvency threat to a brokerage house during the next financial crisis (?) This is one reason why Vanguard seems safer than an outfit like Blackrock.

Btw, I'd be curious to find out if IJH uses any leverage, since their long term out-performance vrs other mid cap ETFs sure looks suspicious. A relative of mine was involved in auditing Blackrock (NJ), and he refuses to buy any of their ETFs. It's no secret that Blackrock and Blackstone are viewed as being on the slimy side, at least that's been the perception.


>>> On January 22, 2019, Vanguard stopped accepting purchases in leveraged or inverse mutual funds, ETFs (exchange-traded funds), or ETNs (exchange-traded notes). If you already own these investments, you can continue to hold them or choose to sell them. You'll pay the same commission as you would to sell transaction-fee mutual funds. You can also transfer them in kind from or to other institutions.


https://investor.vanguard.com/investor-resources-education/etfs/leveraged-inverse-etf-etn


<<<



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[bigworld]

bar: Maybe I should wait for the introduction of a 5X Leveraged fund.

[bar1080]

"Risk-on traders can now aim to get 4 times the return of the S&P 500 with the first-ever quadruple leveraged fund" !!!

* "BMO has launched the first quadruple leveraged ETN fund that tracks the S&P 500.

* The fund will trade under the ticker symbol "XXXX" and seeks to generate four time the S&P 500's return on a daily basis.

* The launch come as bullishness rise among investors and Wall Street predicts more gains to come in 2024."

"Investors looking for a high-risk-high-reward bet on the S&P 500 can now buy into the first-ever quadruple leveraged fund that tracks the benchmark US stock index.

BMO launched the MAX S&P 500 4X Leveraged ETN fund on Tuesday, a first of its kind fund that seeks to generate 4x the daily return of the S&P 500. The fund eclipses the 3x leveraged stock market funds that are popular with short-term traders.

The launch of the fund comes at a time when bullishness among investors is on the rise and predictions for further gains in 2024 are proliferating across Wall Street. Most of the stock market's losses experienced during the 2022 bear market have been erased and the major stock market averages are less than 5% away from their all-time highs.

Meanwhile, bitcoin has soared more than 100% this year, yet another signal that suggests a return to the risk-on sentiment of the pandemic era.

Short-term traders that pile into these leveraged returns are typically looking for a quick return and trade in and out of them quickly, rather than holding them for the long-term.

"I suspect the [demand for leveraged products] will continue to grow as retail continues to adopt these… now you have retail traders able to trade from their phone anywhere they want, and these products help to cater that," Strategas Securities' ETF analyst Todd Sohn told ETF.com.

Holding these leveraged funds for the long-term can be highly risky, because while they can deliver outsized gains as the stock market moves up, small corrections in the stock market can generate huge losses."

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/risk-traders-now-aim-4-000432980.html

[bar1080]

My two long-held Vanguard muni bond funds (VMLTX and VWIUX) have sprung to life this year and are now soaring while my stocks are doing very little. The bond fund holdings are quite sizable and date back at least 30 years.

[bar1080]

I still have my IJH mid-cap fund. Gives me a bit of diversification away from the usual handful of hot fad stocks, MSFT, APPLE, AMZN. ETC

My muni bond funds have been my pleasant surprise in recent weeks. And nice to see BA rising.

[bar1080]

"Btw, I joined you in picking up a mid cap index ETF." Which one? There are quite a few differences among the mid cap ETFs.

[gfp927z]

Bar, >> buy-and-hold strategy <<

Yes, and even better when using a broad index (S+P 500), and dollar cost averaging every month (for the younger investors). This is the basic 'Bogle' passive strategy, and it's hard to beat.

Buffett is one of the few who have beaten it, by picking individual stocks. While he tends to hold some of his favorites for long periods, even decades, I've been surprised lately to see how Buffett has been in and out of some stocks pretty quickly.

Btw, I joined you in picking up a mid cap index ETF. The smaller companies have really lagged the mega caps, so could be catch up time :o)




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[bar1080]

Damn profitable info I've known for decades, and seemingly no one else on IHUB knows.
----------------
"Forget About ‘Timing the Market': Schwab Research Reveals the Optimal Way to Invest

"The firm’s research showed that most investors are better off investing as soon as possible using a buy-and-hold strategy rather than trying to predict short-term peaks and valleys."

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/forget-timing-market-schwab-research-110000932.html

[gfp927z]

Bar, >> BABYF <<

It looks like BABYF signed a deal with Danone a few weeks ago (link below). Not exactly a buyout, but Danone will apparently be doing their manufacturing, marketed and commercialization, and BABYF's products will be included within Danone's product line. I figured BABYF would make a logical acquisition for a larger food company, so will be interesting to see if this leads to a complete buyout at some point. The stock jumped on the news, but then BABYF used the opportunity to raise some money, so some things never change lol..


>>> Else Nutrition and Danone Enter Into a Binding Multi-Stage Collaboration <<<


https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=173255505


>>> ...At the first stage of the collaboration, Else and Danone will enter into a License Agreement whereby Else's products, which are plant based, soy-free and supported by clinical evidence, shall be included in Danone's specialized nutrition portfolio and manufactured, marketed and commercialized by Danone. In addition to the first stage, the parties shall negotiate other opportunities beyond product commercialization. <<<



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[bar1080]

What I love this year is the death of so many Perpetual Startup. LWLG, PLUG and of course BABYF. Investors demand substantial stocks with records of paying real cash dividends.

Another of the plummeting Perpetual Startups, RobinHood favorite PLUG

[bigworld]

Yes. But the fact that 90% of the gains are due to the outperformance of 7 Stocks is worrisome. The market is much more top heavy than it was even in the Nifty Fifty era. There is too much optimism that rate cuts are coming next year. Inflation ebbs and flows. But it's not going away and it certainly isn't anywhere near the Fed's supposed 2% target.

[bar1080]

S&P is up 14.7% YTD as of right now. Interesting that Robinhood stock plummeted today after announcing lower trading activity by its users. QQQ still doing very well for 2023.

[gfp927z]

Bar, >> up 8 straight days <<

Yes, all the way back to where it was a month ago, so net gain = zero. And still 5% below where it was in July.

Also, the US will be running $2 trillion deficits annually, so how many years can that continue? Annual interest on the debt is skyrocketing as the ultra low interest rate Treasury debt matures and is replaced at the high current rates. An analogy to our situation would be the Titanic taking on water, with the question being where does it capsize? Assuming 2 tril annual deficits, here are the numbers (below). And these are conservative since the 2 tril is likely to increase each year. At some point there is a global loss of confidence in the US dollar. Investors ignore this reality at their own peril -


2023 --- 33 tril
2024 --- 35 tril
2025 --- 37 tril
2026 --- 39 tril
2027 --- 41 tril
2028 --- 43 tril
2029 --- 45 tril
2030 --- 47 tril


Debt / GDP -






Interest on National Debt -








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[bar1080]

The QQQ, SPY and DIA!!!


"The popular Invesco QQQ ETF (QQQ), which tracks the Nasdaq 100, is now up 8 straight days, and up 8.5% over that time.

The SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) is up 7 straight days, gaining 6.4% over that period.

The SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA) is also up 7 straight days, and it's up 5.5% over that time period.

For the QQQ so far in November, Datadog is the top performer, up 25%. Warner Bros. Discovery, which reports tomorrow, is up 16.8% in November.

In November, AMD is up 15%, and Nvidia is up about 13%.

At the bottom of the QQQ, Fortinet is down 13% this month. Moderna is down 3% in November, and Baker Hughes down 1.6% in November.

Expedia, Generac and Insulet are the top performers in the SPY. All three are up about 23%.

Paycom, Fortinet and Match Group are at the bottom of the pile.

As far as the DIA is concerned: Goldman Sachs, Microsoft and Apple are at the top so far in November. All three are up more than 6%.

Chevron, Procter & Gamble and Dow Inc. are at the bottom. All three are about flat this month.

Over the last week and a half, the weighted QQQ is outperforming Direxion NASDAQ-100 Equal Weighted Index (QQQE). The SPY is outperforming the Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF (RSP), but the DIA is even with the First Trust Dow 30 Equal Weight ETF (EDOW)."

[bar1080]

Looked at Buffett's 5 Japanese trading houses earlier today. All were doing nicely and paying fat dividends.

[bar1080]

"Stock market today: Stocks extend win streak as investors cling to Fed rate excitement"

Stocks continued their hot streak Tuesday, extending gains for the seventh straight session as renewed confidence in the Federal Reserve ending its tightening campaign this year lifted investors.

The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) rose 0.9%, continuing its own win streak, while the benchmark S&P 500 (^GSPC) edged up by nearly 0.3%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) increased by nearly 0.2% or close to 60 points."

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stock-market-news-today-stocks-extend-win-streak-as-investors-cling-to-fed-rate-excitement-113349115.html

[bar1080]

"But bottom line, bonds and stocks are rallying, so it's party time, at least for a while." Right, 7 up days in a row for the S&P and QQQ is doing great too.

Also new ATH for my big chunk of CTAS

[wow_happens28]

The thought scares me that they are making investors complacent, like big stocks will never fall, like the Russel 2000 has, 13% since August. The NASDAQ 100, down less than 5% has always be a tool for manipulation. Being a Weighted Average, 2 or 3 of the biggest can be manipulated up to make the average look great. I read that in the 1980's, still true from my viewpoint. It takes a while for the crooks to get their sales. puts and naked shorts in place.

https://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=ER2&p=d

https://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?p=d&t=NQ

https://www.financemagnates.com/institutional-forex/goldman-sachs-fined-3m-for-mismarking-60m-short-sale-orders/

[gfp927z]

>> Schiff <<

Thanks. Looks like the Fed / govt statistics are being tweaked to fit whatever narrative is being pushed at the time. The current official stats may be masking the signs of a coming recession, and it also looks like the Fed is trying to minimize damage to the markets from the Middle East war fallout. But bottom line, bonds and stocks are rallying, so it's party time, at least for a while. So just another day on our crazy planet..



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[wow_happens28]

Peter Schiff: The Recession May Have Already Started

A messy paste with charts, read the link>>>>

https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/peter-schiff-recession-may-have-already-started

[bigworld]

The burden of CDI and rCDI on the healthcare system is high
CDI and rCDI are associated with a substantial economic burden that is driven by hospitalization costs (e.g., hospital admissions, intensive care use, length of stay) [21, 26, 28, 42, 55, 60, 81]. The number of all CDI-related hospitalizations has increased in recent years with CDI accounting for almost 1% of all admissions [50].

The cyclical nature of rCDI contributes to the significant burden with recurrence increasing the likelihood of hospitalization [23]. Rodrigues et al. reported that most patients (84%) with recurrence had a CDI-related hospitalization within 12 months [40] and another cohort study reported that 25% of CDI patients who survived an initial hospitalization were readmitted within 60 days [82]. Patients with CDI have an average hospital length of stay of 8 days for an index episode and 9.3 days for a rCDI episode [26]. Furthermore, patients with three or more recurrences have an average of 5.8 inpatient visits and 4.6 emergency department visits over the course of a year [81].

Inpatient costs of CDI to the US are estimated to be nearly $5 billion annually [83] while rCDI costs are estimated to be $2.8 billion [40]. The average healthcare costs attributable to CDI over a 6-month follow up period are $39,000 with recurrence increasing costs up to $49,000 [26, 40]. The associated costs are certainly higher over a longer period (12 months) with mean total, all-cause, direct medical costs starting at $71,980, and ranging between $131,953 for patients with one recurrence to more than $200,000 in patients with three or more recurrences (Fig. 4) [81]. The COVID-19 pandemic increased the already high per-patient costs by roughly $2000 compared to pre-pandemic times [18].
____________________________________________________________________________________
C Diff infection is a huge cost burden on the world. There are millions of cases worldwide every year. So the latest Acurx study data for their C. Diff antibiotic (Ibezapolstat) are stunning. Their Phase II data is showing an astounding clinical cure rate of 96%. I don't think I have EVER seen such strongly supportive data, and I've been looking at drug data for almost 40 years. With the cost burden of treating C. Diff, the prevalence of recurrence using the older therapies, and this new data I have to think the FDA will fast track this drug within the next 2 years.

[wow_happens28]

bigworld, I feel were are seeing consolidation of assets by the "Deep State." Either the little guys sell to them ,or have their patents stolen, The fortune 500 are mostly world wide companies. It is more about controlling people. UN Agenda 2030 spells it all out. IMO, they are just making everything look bad so many will welcome a new world government. It will be based an the socialist systems of Russia and China. Socialism, Planned economies, etc. are just nice sounding words for slavery. My thought is they got the best think tanks and I don't see why that can't do this without killing, ruining so many lives, etc. so many people. I have never seen a wildfire aftermath like Lahaina had that the remains are white ashes, not black. Kill 100,000 people, fine with them. Build a futuristic 15 minute city i it's place and everything will be for "The Greater Good", their theme song line for justifying anything they do. Black Rock and Vanguard have a lot of financial power with their mutual fund holdings. If both of them have a lot of shares in a stock you like, buy it. If they bail, flee.

[bar1080]

Pennyland is dead and probably IHUB. No one wants to put their money in the lowest stock rungs.

[bigworld]

Wow: The Russell has been the worst performing Index for years now. A recession is coming. All that stimulus money is now long gone. Inflation is killing the lower 80 percentile of income earners. The government's phony CPI numbers are garbage,. Real inflation for the things people need to live on are going up in price much faster. I haver a brother in Venice, Florida. His homeowner's insurance renewal just came. His insurer wants to pass on a 60% premium increase. And so many insurance companies have exited the Florida market he might not find anything cheaper. The National Debt will pass $34 Trillion in November. It won't be long now before interest on the debt surpasses Defense spending on a yearly basis. The Feds will take in about $4.7 Trillion in fiscal 2023. They are spending $6.7 Trillion. They would need to raise the amount of revenue collected by over 40% from current levels just to break even. Not gonna happen. And what are the chances that the corrupt cowards in Washington DC are ever going to reduce spending? So they will borrow and print until the Dollar collapses. Then we enter Mad Max territory.

[gfp927z]

Bar, >> Inverted Yield Curve <<

Here's a good site to monitor the Treasuries yields and yield curve -

https://www.cnbc.com/us-treasurys/

I've been tracking the numbers on my I-Hub Bond board since the Fed started tightening last year (link below), and for Treasuries, the 2 year vrs 30 year has been inverted since Sept 2022, and just recently un-inverted (slightly) this month, but is now back to being slightly inverted. The 2 year vrs the 10 year is similar.

Ideally it would be best to see the inversion reversed by having the short term % rates come down (Fed loosening after declaring victory against inflation). But instead, the longer term rates recently shot up dramatically, climbing up to reach the already high short term rates. So not the ideal type of inversion reversal. These skyrocketing long term rates will eventually wreak havoc in the financial world due to the heavily indebted US government, and US corporations that gorged themselves on debt over the last 15 years. Eventually something breaks in the financial system. Luckily inflation has come down a lot, so the Fed can have the option of resetting their 2% target to 3%, and declaring victory. But now the Middle East blows up, oil markets go crazy, etc. So never a dull moment..


https://investorshub.advfn.com/Bonds-and-Fixed-Income-31578

(red = inverted)



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[bar1080]

"The inverted yield curve is reversing course: Why it matters"

"One of Wall Street's most-watched recession indicators is the inverted yield curve. An inverted yield curve is when the yield on a shorter duration Treasury, such as the 2-year, are yielding more than those on a longer duration, such as the 10-year. The yield curve has been inverted for several months, but now it's starting to "uninvert," In the video above, Yahoo Finance’s Josh Schafer explains why it's important for investors to take note."

https://finance.yahoo.com/video/inverted-yield-curve-reversing-course-152533265.html

[ProfitScout]

$AVRW: Nicole Kidman video endorsing the company's Seratopical brand skin care line:

Introducing Seratopical Revolution made with plant-based ingredients backed by science for flawless skin. Nicole Kidman, the Global Brand Ambassador, called Seratopical Revolution, "A dream come true! Truly anti-aging skincare with proven results, Seratopical Revolution is the true revolutionary line that contains the proprietary P3P delivery system so advanced and so effective in driving those ingredients deeper than ever before. Visit Seratopicalrevolution.com and take our quiz to see which products are perfect for you skin.

[gfp927z]

Bar, Yes, best to avoid these ultra tiny stocks altogether. Your 10 bil market cap rule is a good idea. There are some solid stocks in the 5 - 10 bil range, but once under 5 bil, things get much dicier.

These days the definitions for 'Mid Cap' and 'Small Cap' seem to vary considerably. The Vanguard Small Cap ETF (VB) has lots of stocks in the 15 bil market cap range, and their Mid Cap Index ETF (VO) has a lot in the 40-50 bil range. That seems high to me, but I guess there has been considerable 'bracket creep' over the years. Over time my own definitions became dated, so I tacked on several new categories -- V. Large Cap, Mega and Monster Cap (see below).

But staying away from the really tiny stuff is definitely a good idea. Of the microcaps I've been following, only a handful have been really solid over time -- WINA, UFPI, UFPT, and they could be identified by their great / steady long term charts.


Microcap -------- Under 1 Bil
Small Cap ------ 1 - 5 Bil
Mid Cap --------- 5 - 15 Bil
Large Cap ----- 15 - 40 Bil
V. Large Cap -- 40 -100 Bil
Mega Cap ----- 100 - 500 Bil
Monster Cap -- over 500 Bil



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[bar1080]

Jeesh, RIBT is off 60% since I posted this to him on June 21, 2023:

"I have long had about 17 requirements for my investments. Deere meets all 17 of them. Your RIBT is just a microscopic lemonade stand of a stock on the Nasdaq's lowest quality tier (market cap $7 million).

Deere's market cap is above $100 BILLION. Hope you don't need RIBT to be able to survive financial downturns, market drawdowns, recessions and perhaps depressions.

Yes, DE is doing very well."

https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=172184916

[bar1080]

My minimum market cap size for investment is $10 billion, far bigger than most Russell 2000 components. For many years I've followed about 17 rules for selecting individual stocks. However most of my funds are in index funds, especially the S&P 500. I also *generally* require that my investments pay steady cash dividends. One rare exception is my sizable holding in BRK which is America's 7th largest corp.

I'm a retired lawyer with many decades of investment experience. My son is a CPA for a Big Four firm.

Speaking of freefall, I'm not surprised by the performance of RIBT.

[wow_happens28]

The Russel 2000 making new 52 week lows and now in free fall territory?

https://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?p=d&t=ER2

[bar1080]

Nothing compares with the dismal recent performance of the Nasdaq-CM tier, the bottom Nasdaq tier. It's off about 25% in the past three months. No wonder most IHUB penny stock boards are dead. I'm thinking IHUB is in its death throes!

"For now I decided to stay laddered out to only 3 years, with the idea of holding these bonds (Treasuries) to maturity." Yep, about the same here.

[gfp927z]

Bar, >> Bond ETFs <<

Yes, bond funds make sense again now that interest rates are hopefully near their peak. Some analysts are recommending moving out to longer maturities in order to get the capital gains that will come as rates start coming back down. For now I decided to stay laddered out to only 3 years, with the idea of holding these bonds (Treasuries) to maturity. I figure a lot can happen in 5, 10, 15 years, and with global de-dollarization accelerating, I worry about demand and confidence problems developing for the US dollar. For now the dollar is OK, but 5 or 10 years from now, who knows.

>> Microcaps <<

Yes, not a great time to be in microcaps. As a group they are down ~ 17% from the July highs, vrs losses of 7%, 10%, 11% for the large, mid, and small cap indexes. And the junkier microcaps that are so popular on I-Hub are likely down a lot more, as the market goes into risk-off mode.

Fwiw, on the stock side I decided to just use the S+P 500, instead of individual stocks, but have dropped it down to only 11%. Ideally the goal for long term buy/hold was supposed to be 20%, but it had crept up to 30%, then I scaled back, and now down to only 11%. This Middle East situation has me spooked considerably since it appears to be heading for a US attack on Iran's nuclear sites. I'm trying hard to stay long term focused, but with cash and T-Bills paying 5%, I figure why take the extra risk with stocks. I'll probably just hold with a ~ 10% stock allocation, and if the market really tanks I'll reload near the bottom, and get back to the ideal 20% stock allocation. So still a work in progress.




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[bar1080]

Some pretty good stocks are being pounded. Watching GNRC, a favorite of small time stock players. It was around $150 a few months ago and now just $88. Pays no dividend and trades around 37X earnings. Off 39% in the last Q!

On the yield front, Invesco Bulletshare bond ETFs with maturities going out 2-6 years now YTM around 6.20%. My kids have been asking me for advice on safe fixed income stuff.

My own stocks are struggling with the exception of BRK and CTAS. Larger cap index funds like the S&P 500 are doing decently over the past three months. Microcaps are being decimated.

[gfp927z]

Bar, Yes, it's hard to imagine that these eVTOLs will be the cars of the future. But the air taxi idea will happen, transporting businessmen to catch their flights at major city airports. That's the market that companies like Archer and Joby are targeting. But replacing the family SUV, and flying around like George Jetson, not likely :o)

In addition to the 'airport taxi' market, another area where these eVTOLs might be successful would be as sporting aircraft, but there is some heavy competition in that space. If a pilot wants his own sport airplane, there are lots of great ones out there to choose from, and they are 'real' airplanes that can fly fast and far. The eVTOLs will be expensive, slow, with very limited range and flight duration, so more of a novelty item. So probably not a big market, except for ultra wealthy pilots who don't mind shelling out 300 K or more for a new toy. Maybe a Tom Cruise or Harrison Ford, but not a broad market.

---

[bar1080]

A Carefully Cropped Shot of Crowdfunding The Future. Reminds me of that Nikola truck rolling downhill.

[bar1080]

The BS product "Of The Day"

"Where Doroni Aerospace's designs are taking us, drivers won't need roads. Doroni Aerospace CEO Doron Merdinger showcases the developer's patented electric flying car — or eVTOL (electric vertical take-off and landing) — detailing its use cases and features.

"Most of the eVTOLs are targeting an air taxi, this is a different type of use cases and certification more complicated case... it's not for everybody [or] personal use," Merdinger tells Yahoo Finance. "It's not a ride-sharing one so... [it's] more affordable. We're talking about $300,000 - 400,000 vehicle, compared to $50 million."

"Doron Merdinger (born 1968) is an Israeli-American tableware and jewellery designer. He is the founder of the Merdinger House of Design based in Miami, Florida." Nothing stated about making things that fly.

"https://finance.yahoo.com/video/electric-flying-car-endless-cases-215016532.html";

[ProfitScout]

$SHOT News: Safety Shot's Chief Operating Officer Jarrett Boon Joins Company's Board of Directors

JUPITER, FL, Oct. 10, 2023 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Safety Shot, Inc. (Nasdaq: SHOT) today announced that Jarrett Boon, who has served as the Company's Chief Operating Officer since August 2023, has been appointed to Safety Shot's Board of Directors. Mr. Boon is leading the launch and growth of the Company's Safety Shot functional drink business this quarter.

Boon was the Co-Founder and CEO of GBB Drink Lab, which developed Safety Shot, the first patented beverage on Earth that helps people feel better faster by reducing blood alcohol content and boosting clarity. Boon has over 30 years of experience building successful businesses from creation to exit. He was one of the original thought leaders and investors in LifeLock, a leading identity protection provider, where he applied his expertise in sales, marketing, and strategic business development to grow LifeLock to $500 million in revenue. LifeLock went public in 2012 and was subsequently acquired by Symantec in 2016 for $2.3 billion. Prior to LifeLock, Boon founded SW Promotions, a marketing and advertising company. SW Promotions and its 400 employees were acquired by one of its publicly traded partners.

"In the past few months since I've joined the Company, our outstanding team has teed up the Safety Shot drink for launch this last quarter of 2023 and built market momentum for direct-to-consumer sales. I couldn't be more excited about the potential for Safety Shot to improve health and wellbeing for consumers. I'm pleased to become a member of the Board to guide our corporate direction and deliver solid results for all our stakeholders including Safety Shot shareholders," stated Safety Shot's COO, Jarrett Boon.

About Safety Shot

Safety Shot, a wellness and functional beverage company, is set to launch Safety Shot last quarter of 2023, the first patented beverage on Earth that helps people feel better faster by reducing blood alcohol content and boosting brain clarity.

Interested investors and shareholders are encouraged to sign up for press releases and industry updates by registering for Email Alerts at https://jupiterwellness.com/email-alerts/ and by following Jupiter Wellness on X (formerly known as Twitter) and LinkedIn.

Forward Looking Statements

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[gfp927z]

>>> 3 market implications from the Israel-Hamas war


Yahoo Finance

by Rick Newman

October 9, 2023


https://finance.yahoo.com/news/3-market-implications-from-the-israel-hamas-war-183752115.html


Just about every US president gets a Middle East crisis, and President Biden now has his. The war between Israel and the Palestinian Hamas group, which attacked Israel on Oct. 7, could be long and complex. Iran, which backs Hamas and seeks the destruction of Israel, might be involved. Israel has vowed a massive operation in Gaza, which Hamas controls, and months or even years of urban warfare there are likely to be grueling and ugly.

Financial markets are insulated from the direct effects of this unfolding war, which doesn’t immediately threaten energy supplies, corporate profits, or banking stability. But there are market concerns nonetheless, especially if the war escalates. Here are three things to watch.

Oil supplies in 2024. Crude prices jumped by about 4% following the Hamas attack, which is a fairly typical reaction as markets apply a “fear premium” premised broadly on the perception of higher risk. That’s not a huge jump and the price hike could quickly fade if the oil market continues to function normally.

Two geopolitical changes could affect oil supplies in 2024, however — which means they have implications for the US presidential election. The first involves Saudi oil supplies. Before Hamas attacked Israel on Oct. 7, the Biden administration had been trying to broker a deal in which Saudi Arabia and Israel would establish formal, normalized relations for the first time ever. Each nation would make concessions to the other, and the United States would do its part by offering Saudi Arabia defense guarantees that make a deal with Israel possible.

Some analysts think an unstated part of the deal would be Saudi willingness to pump more oil in 2024, to help keep US gasoline prices down as Biden is running for reelection. But the war may now scuttle the Israeli-Saudi deal and with it the prospects of a boost in Saudi oil production in 2024.

“We see more support for tighter oil supply and higher oil prices over the longer term as diplomatic progress on a security deal with Saudi Arabia is likely to face significant headwinds during a period of heightened military activity in the Middle East,” Raymond James analysts wrote in an Oct. 8 report. “Speculation that Saudi Arabia could ease its oil production cuts to build goodwill for a security deal with the US had ramped up, but the potential for this weekend’s events to spark a broader regional conflict will likely place any further progress on hold.”

Iranian oil is another 2024 wild card. There have been subtle signs of a thaw between the United States and the Islamic theocracy, including Iran’s recent release of five US hostages in exchange for the unfreezing of $6 billion in Iranian funds. That, too, may have been a Biden effort to coax or allow more Iranian oil on to global markets to bring prices down. But even suspicion of Iranian aid to Hamas in its attack on Israel may force Biden to tighten sanctions on Iran and end any make-niceties. “Iran’s fingerprints on the attacks could reduce political space for the White House to pursue such leniency,” analysts at ClearView Energy Partners wrote in an Oct. 8 analysis.

Biden’s political prospects have suffered from high inflation, including gasoline prices that hit $5 per gallon in 2022 and have been persistently higher than when Donald Trump was in office before him. Biden clearly wants to keep gas prices as low as possible while he campaigns for reelection. The war in Israel will make that harder.

A coherent Republican party? Republicans in the House of Representatives are waging civil war among themselves, with the first big casualty being former Speaker Kevin McCarthy, who lost his post on Oct. 3 when a handful of far-right members voted to fire him, depriving him of a majority vote. Deep divisions between moderates and conservatives could keep the House leaderless for weeks and lead to a government shutdown when temporary funding bills expire on Nov. 17.

But a shocking war involving a close US ally that might at some point require Congressional action could cure Republicans of their adolescent hissy fits. A “growing sense of crisis will place new pressure on the House to resolve its leadership battle,” Raymond James asserted in its Oct. 8 report. The first test will come sometime around Oct. 11, the first opportunity Republicans will have to elect a new speaker. If they do so in short order, it would reduce the odds of a November shutdown. If they don’t, then maybe the party’s immaturity is incurable.

More aid for Ukraine and more money for defense. The temporary spending bills Congress recently approved did not include the $24 billion Biden wanted for Ukraine in 2024, to help fight its own war against Russian invaders. McCarthy’s ouster darkened the outlook for that aid passing Congress through some other mechanism, since the far-right conservatives asserting their newfound power generally oppose further aid to Ukraine.

The Israeli war may create a fresh opportunity for Congress to approve that aid. Russia is an ally of Iran, which is Israel’s sworn enemy and perhaps a co-conspirator in the Hamas attacks. So it could become politically more difficult for some members of Congress to snub Ukraine, since that favors Russia and by extension Israel’s nemesis, Iran. The world also seems even more dangerous in the aftermath of the Hamas attacks, which came as a total surprise and ruptured a period of relative calm in the Middle East. There are now two major wars in America’s sphere of influence, with China signaling its own interest in invading Taiwan one of these years. Gamesmanship over defense spending suddenly seems dumber than usual.

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>>> Corporate America Is Ignoring Jay Powell and Bingeing on Debt


Bloomberg

by Olivia Raimonde

October 6, 2023


https://finance.yahoo.com/news/corporate-america-ignoring-jay-powell-230002368.html


(Bloomberg) -- For the past 18 months, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell has frantically been trying to break Americans' borrow-and-spend habits. It’s critical to his fight against inflation.

In C-suites across the country, though, CEOs and CFOs aren’t getting the message.

Not only have they displayed little desire to pay down debt that's become more expensive after 11 interest-rate hikes, but many of them have heaped more of it on their books, borrowing cash in bond markets to upgrade their operations, expand their businesses and fund share buybacks. (The surge in hiring in September, reported Friday morning, was just the latest evidence of this.)

Since the first rate increase back in early 2022, companies with investment-grade credit ratings — powerhouses like Pfizer and Meta Platforms that play an ever-growing role in driving the US economy — have added more than half a trillion dollars of net debt, according to data compiled by Bloomberg Intelligence. Even companies with shakier finances — those rated sub-investment grade, or junk — have been ratcheting their borrowing back up this year after scaling it back in 2022.

To Edward Altman, finance professor emeritus at New York University’s Stern School of Business, this is a reflection of just how ingrained the borrow-and-spend model became in Corporate America during a two-decade period in which Fed policymakers kept benchmark rates pinned near zero for long stretches.

Many of the executives managing balance sheets today began their careers during those easy-money years, which, Altman notes, makes it even more difficult to undo the mindset.

For them, this is “Corporate Finance 101,” he says.

And so while all the chatter on Wall Street has been that the Fed's hiking campaign is essentially over, the debt boom has signaled that Powell may have to keep pushing rates higher to break the fever and curb the behavior. Or at least maintain them elevated for longer than anticipated. The spike in benchmark 10-year bond yields over the past two weeks, which has cooled the debt-sale push for the moment, is a sign that investors could now be waking up to this fact.

The risk, of course, is that Powell winds up going too far and sinks the economy into a recession that's felt most acutely by the companies that piled on the debt.

Indicators of the financial health of investment-grade companies have begun to deteriorate, according to BI data. As their leverage ticked up between the end of March 2022 and mid-2023, a key gauge of their ability to make payments — known as interest coverage — edged lower, the data show.

And for less-creditworthy businesses, the strain is building even faster. Defaults have risen in some corners of speculative-grade debt markets, like real estate and retail. Household names Bed Bath & Beyond and Party City are among more than 150 companies with at least $50 million of debt that have filed for bankruptcy this year, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

While it’s exceedingly rare, corporate upheaval is even possible among investment-grade companies. Silicon Valley Bank failed in March after the surge in interest rates triggered a run on deposits at the regional lender.

Given the extreme nature of the borrowing spree over the past decade, it's likely that other meltdowns are lurking in ordinarily safe corners of the market, said Hans Mikkelsen managing director of credit strategy at TD Securities. “It has to be that there will be things that blow up,” he said. Years of easy monetary policy meant that “the amount of risk-taking was extreme.’’

The corporate borrowing binge during these past 18 months is, for the most part, a North American phenomenon. Investment-grade borrowers in Europe added a much smaller amount of net debt over that time — $150 billion — while in Asia, their net borrowing declined by about $70 billion, BI data show.

To be clear, the Fed has had some success in reining in Americans' spending in certain sectors of the economy. There’s been a pullback in the leveraged loan market that finances mergers and acquisitions and a decline in mortgages and other consumer loans.

But in general, the urge to take on debt shows few signs of wavering. Even after a spike in long-term bond yields triggered a slowdown in debt sales the last couple weeks, September was still one of the busier months of the year. Companies raised a gross $124 billion in the bond market.

Higher-for-longer interest rates are, of course, little fuss to industry behemoths that are rich enough to borrow no matter the cost. Pfizer and Meta, for instance, increased their net debt by a combined $45 billion since the first rate hike, according to BI data. Representatives for the two companies declined to comment.

More noteworthy is the way mid-investment-grade businesses — those deemed a little less financially stable — have continued to tap debt markets. The average annual interest cost to borrow $1 billion in the US high-grade bond market has climbed to $62.7 million, from $17.4 million at the end of 2020.

Dozens of such companies in North America have increased overall debt while buying back shares on the open market, according to BI data, a signal they have ample cash and a confident outlook.

“Interest rates are higher, but still attractive as a means to raise capital,” said NYU’s Altman, who's best known for the Altman Z-score, a popular tool for predicting bankruptcies that he created decades ago. “The boards see it as a way to increase their return on equity to their shareholders.”

Drugstore chain CVS Health, which is scored BBB by major credit assessors, borrowed $11 billion this year to boost spending and acquire Signify Health and Oak Street Health. CVS’s board also approved an increase of its stock-buyback program by $10 billion. CVS’s debt load, meanwhile, has risen to 3.3 times a key measure of earnings as of the end of June, compared to 2.8 times in mid-2022, according to BI data.

A representative for CVS declined to comment.

And even firms that have historically taken a more conservative approach, like financial conglomerate Marsh & McLennan Cos., have been willing to keep tapping the market. “Look, interest rates are high, but we don’t get paid to time the market,” Mark McGivney, the firm's chief financial officer, said after selling $1.6 billion of bonds ahead of debt maturities next year. “We get paid to fund the company.”

Powell acknowledged last week the challenges that come with using interest rates to try to change behavior and steer the economy in the direction he wants. “One of our goals is to influence spending and investment decisions,” he told a group of teachers in Washington. “That will only be the case if people understand what we are saying and what it means for their own finances.”

The Fed, in other words, needs people to hear — and heed — its message.

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Rickards - >>> Something “Big and Stupid” Is Coming…


BY JAMES RICKARDS

OCTOBER 3, 2023


https://dailyreckoning.com/something-big-and-stupid-is-coming/


Something “Big and Stupid” Is Coming…

With debt levels reaching all-time highs in major developed and developing economies, and with debt-to-GDP ratios also in record territory (not including contingent liabilities such as Social Security, health care and other entitlements, which make matters worse), it seems time to consider just how nations will deal with this problem.

The debt crisis may not be imminent, but it is unavoidable. When it happens, it may present the greatest financial disaster of all time. It’s never too soon for investors to consider the fallout.

When you issue debt in a currency you print, there’s no need for default in the sense of non-payment.

You can just have the central bank buy the debt (by printing money). This is the situation today in the U.S., Japan, the U.K. and the European Monetary Union (the countries that use the euro). They all have huge debt burdens, but they all have central banks that can simply buy the debt by printing money to avoid default.

Non-Payment Is Not the Issue

There are many bad consequences to printing money and storing up debt on central bank balance sheets, but non-payment of debt is not one of them. This is the mantra of the Modern Monetary Theorists (MMT) and their thought leader Stephanie Kelton.

In my view, MMT is garbage as economic policy, but the no-default tenet is valid. George Soros says the same thing.

That said, we are well past the point where the debt can be managed with real growth. That threshold is about a 90% debt-to-GDP ratio. A 60% debt-to-GDP ratio is even more comfortable and can be managed.

Unfortunately, the major reserve currency economies are all well past the 90% ratio as are those of many smaller countries. The U.S. ratio is 134%, an all-time high. The U.K. ratio is 102%. France is 111%. Spain is 112%. Italy is 145%.

China reports a figure of 77% but this is highly misleading because it ignores provincial debt for which Beijing is ultimately responsible. China’s actual figure is over 200% when provisional debt is included.

The champion debtor is Japan at 261%. The only major economy with a halfway respectable ratio is Germany at 67%. It’s Germany’s misfortune that they are probably responsible for the rest of Europe through the ECB Target2 system.

All these countries are headed for default. But we must consider the different ways to conduct a default.

There are three basic ways to default: non-payment, inflation and debt restructuring. You can take non-payment off the table for the reason mentioned above — you can always just print the money.

The same goes for restructuring. Inflation is clearly the best way to default. You pay back the money in nominal terms, but it’s worth very little in real terms. The creditor loses and the debtor countries win.

Nice and Easy Does It

The key to inflating away the real value of debt is to go slowly. It’s like stealing money from your mother’s purse. If she has $50 and you take $40, she’ll notice. If you take one dollar, she won’t notice. But a dollar stolen every day adds up over time.

This is what the U.S. did from 1945–1980. At the end of World War II, the U.S. debt-to-GDP ratio was 120% (about where it is now). By 1980, the ratio was 30%, which is entirely manageable.

Of course, nominal debt and GDP soared, but nominal GDP went up faster than nominal debt, so the ratio fell. If you can keep inflation around 3% and interest rates around 2% and exert fiscal discipline (which we did under Eisenhower, Kennedy, Nixon and Ford), the nominal GDP will grow faster than nominal debt (due to the Fed capping rates).

If you improve the ratio by, say, 2% per year and keep it up for 35 years (1945–1980), you can cut the ratio by 70%. That’s what we did.

The key was to do it slowly (like stealing from your mom’s purse). Almost no one noticed the decline in the real value of money until we got to the blow-off stage (1978–1981). But by then it was mission accomplished.

So there are two ways to deal with excessive debt: fiscal discipline and inflation. From 1945–1980, the U.S. did just that. If you run inflation at 3% and interest rates are 2%, you melt the real value of debt. If you exert fiscal discipline relative to GDP, you decrease the nominal debt-to-GDP ratio.

We did both.

The reason the debt-to-GDP ratio is back up to 134% is that Bush45, Obama, Trump and Biden ignored the formula. Since 2000, fiscal policy has been reckless so the formula doesn’t work. The problem isn’t really “money printing” (most of the money the Fed prints just comes back to the Fed as excess reserves, so it doesn’t do anything in the real economy).

The problem is that nominal debt is going up faster than nominal GDP, so the debt-to-GDP ratio goes up. This dynamic will be made much worse by the huge increase in interest rates over the past 18 months.

You can’t borrow your way out of a debt crisis. We have also been unable to generate much inflation. Inflation ran below 2% for almost all of the 2009–2019 recovery.

Japan Writ Large

Looking at the global picture, it’s important to understand that Japan is just a bigger version of the U.S. They don’t have fiscal discipline and they can’t get inflation to save their lives. The only way out for Japan is hyperinflation, which will come but not yet.

Japan can probably keep the debt game going for a while. The crash will come when the currency collapses. When I started in banking, USD/JPY was 400. Those were the days!

A debt crisis is on the way. Something big and stupid (in the words of the brilliant analyst Stephanie Pomboy) is coming from policymakers to address the issue. But the solution won’t be a policy and it won’t be a plan. A crisis will just happen almost overnight and seem to come from nowhere.

But it will come.

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Bigworld, >> No energy means we go back to horses and buggies, and 90% of the population dies out <<


Or alternately, 90% of the world's population dies out first, so the globalist planners are merely shrinking the global energy supply in anticipation of the expected smaller world population to come. It's no secret that the globalists have an obsession with overpopulation, since they see it as an existential threat to their oligarchy. They certainly don't need 7 billion of us 'problems' around. Webster Tarpley and Catherine Fitts have discussed this topic in some detail.

A mechanism for achieving the population reduction goal likely began in earnest in 1991 when they began giving the Hep B vaccine to newborns. A newborn baby's acquired immune system isn't even functioning yet (only the innate immune system is), so there are no antibodies produced in response to the vaccine, and therefore no scientific rationale for giving it to a newborn. So why give it? Because it's the perfect platform for introducing population control measures into a population. And kids now get dozens of vaccines, so an easy way to achieve the desired population control.

Vaccines can be designed to induce infertility (links below), but faster acting approaches have undoubtedly been developed over the years, like inducing cancers. Injecting cancer cells directly into a subject goes back to the early 1960s, and now it can be done via genetic means. The explosion of cancer rates in kids correlates exactly with the introduction of the vast array of new mandatory vaccines. Any one of these vaccines could be cooked / designed for population control. One possible theory with the Covid vaccines is that the population reduction effort was taking way too long by targeting only children, so now the entire population gets the jab. And it will be an annual vaccine, and also mandatory, enforced via the CBDC. So as TS Eliot famously said - 'This is the way the world ends, not with a bang but a whimper'.


>>> Anti-fertility vaccines <<<

https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/2665354/#:~:text=The%20principle%20of%20anti%2DhCG,CTP%20was%20effective%20in%20baboons.

>>> Vaccines for immunological control of fertility <<<

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5904606/



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[bigworld]

bar: I think its a smart business decision. Walmart is the only big retail game in town in a lot of communities. China is encouraging even their poor citizens to buy whatever gold they can afford. At some point the Dollar is going to drop, and precious metals are going to at least hold their purchasing power. I don't recommend people go as far out on the limb as I have with precious metals. But everyone should have 10% of their net worth in physical gold and silver. And another 10% in well capitalized mining companies or a mining ETF. And not just gold and silver. Copper is going to be an absolute necessity if they keep following through with the electrification of everything. Lithium has been for some time now. Energy too is good place to be positioned. Whatever the climate alarmists dream about the elimination of fossil fuels it just will not be possible. We will either burn gas in our cars or we will burn natural gas and coal to generate electricity to power our vehicles. No energy means we go back to horses and buggies, and 90% of the population dies out.

[bar1080]

What do you think of Walmart selling gold bars in small quantities but at a good prices

[bigworld]

bar: Better to own gold bars then low yielding bond instruments. Gold should be rising in tandem with oil. Eventually it will. Over time it holds it's purchasing power. The government can't print it. That's a plus.