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He'd probably be talking about that celebratory barbecue!
What a day! I’ve been in and out but started accumulating again below $7. Len (jugs) would be proud. Congratulations to all longs.
I'm still shaking my head....... Obviously I want to see this to be the beginning of the share price recovery. I started investing in RCEL in 2019.... averaged down.... but I would love to see all lots in the green.
But, it's far better than it was, and, hopefully, not nearly as good as it will be in the next couple of years.
No rumors that I am aware of. Just a company with a game changing product that hits milestones without all the bull.
Avita Medical price target raised to $40 from $30 at Lake Street
AVITA Medical Files Premarket Approval Supplement With US FDA for Recell Go
Cantor Fitzgerald has initiated coverage on Avita Medical Inc (NASDAQ:RCEL) at an Overweight rating and a price target of $23.
AVITA Medical Rejoins the Russell 3000 Index
The US FDA approved AVITA Medical's (ASX:AVH) application for premarket approval of its RECELL system for the treatment of vitiligo, a skin pigmentation disorder, the regenerative medicine company said Monday.
Avita Medical Surges as FDA Approves Recell System
pursuing site of service reimbursement for the use of RECELL in the physician office setting, which is expected by 2025
https://www.google.com/search?rlz=1C1GCEB_enUS926US926&q=avita+medical&tbm=nws&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwjwurvx84uAAxUvJ0QIHWZeAbwQ0pQJegQIDRAB&biw=1920&bih=969&dpr=1
I love seeing the stock rise.... I've been a long time holder.... Seen plenty of ups and downs but, like many here, believe the products are truly beneficial.
That said, was there some very recentrumors/new s sparking the share price increase?
Wasn't this a know submission? I believe RCEL gave a timeline of approval of the new automated device in January 2024.
Massive catalyst potential.
Forward!
https://ir.avitamedical.com/news-releases/news-release-details/avita-medical-submits-fda-pma-supplement-recell-go
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1762303/000119312523174497/d521007dex991.htm
Avita had written in their PDF presentation that the soft tissue market was approx 110,000 and about 5 times the size of the burns market. Reading that the market is actually 391,000 is fantastic news considering that the same Avita PDF stated that the vitiligo market is 500k.
Fund buying. Avita was added back to the Russell 3000 Index.
$38 MILLION dollar purchase right at the close!
https://imgur.io/a/mg5QPG3
Are there any before/after pics online of vitiligo patients that were part of Recell's trial?
We should learn more about their overall international rollout strategy by Q4 ‘23, potentially including any timing or plans by Japan to take these latest indications through their PMDA process. Until then, Q3 and Q4 ‘23 should be exciting as sales and revenue ramp to new heights.
The real catalyst starts with their next potential approval: the automated device being submitted for FDA review in a couple weeks and its expected approval by Q1 ‘24.
Victory, healing and growth ahead.
Now that they have three indications approved, how fast will Avita be able to get Recell approved elsewhere like Europe, Australia, etc? Also, when will these new indications be available to the Japanese market?
HALLELUJAH!!
APPROVED AGAIN! And AGAIN, this is JUST the start.
Wow. WOW. WOOOOOW!
https://ir.avitamedical.com/news-releases/news-release-details/avita-medical-announces-fda-approval-recell-skin-repigmentation
Great news! I was trying to find Avita's PDF presentation showing the addressable market of Full-Thickness Skin Defects compared to Burns. Does anyone know where I can find that?
Never mind. Found them here from an earlier post of mine.
HALLELUJAH!
APPROVED! And this is JUST the start.
Wow. WOW. WOOOOOW!
https://ir.avitamedical.com/news-releases/news-release-details/avita-medical-announces-fda-approval-recell-treatment-full
Isn't today the day that soft tissue approval from the FDA is expected?
If so, is there a particular time of day that such announcements are made?
Thanks for a well thought out and intelligent response.
The Aussie stock closed up 8.16% tonight.
It's a new shelf offering to replace the identical shelf offering put in place in 2nd Q 2020 which expires shortly. Shelf offerings have to be replaced every 3 years by SEC rule. They are there to provide shares in the event they do decide to do an equity offering which requires a proxy filing at that time. They can also be used to issue shares for employee and officer share based compensation plans. Virtually every public company has shelf shares. They don't add any capital to company coffers in and of themselves. Once again, the last equity raise was in early 2020, none since. Shelf shares merely give them the ability to do an equity raise when and if they choose.
Not sure why people find this to be such a difficult concept but many do, it's not just you.
Suggest googling " shelf offering ".
I know you have been here a long time.
So what you are saying makes sense if they need the funds to build the company but regardless if they use this shelf it will create dilution. Could be or good or bad time will tell.
One of the prettier cups I’ve even seen.
Just so you don’t get to confused here is the link to the S-3.
https://ir.avitamedical.com/node/11396/html
Pretty simple I just follow the stock made money in it 3-4 years ago.
So you have said a lot but really nothing.
Have you checked the SEC filings that news didn’t come out of thin air.
Believe what you want that was straight off the news feed on TD Aneritrade.
On 4/1 they Filed a $200 Million mixed Securities Shelf
Last equity raise was in early 2021 of which they still had $77M as of end Q1 2023. No equity raise needed again unless they decide to raise H2 2024 for vitiligo and global effort. They're in good shape financially.
It's rare that investors understand the main problem: "The Investor's Chief Problem--and even his worst enemy--is likely to be himself" ---Benjamin Graham.
With Avita, I can't wait to read Exactly what is approved.
I agree their is great potential for the product. But if approval is a sure thing why did the company not wait to raise money until afterwards?
10 Days until June 7th expected soft tissue FDA approval. 20 days until June 17th expected vitiligo FDA approval. We’re in that period where manipulation is rampant while the manipulators do everything they can to psychologically screw people out of their shares. Sowing doubt becomes the focus, but they’ll never admit it. I’ve seen this too many times; I’ve learned the drill.
Target market expands 5X the current burns market immediately after soft tissue approval. It expands another 5X after vitiligo sales launch in January 2025 for a total of 25X the current burns target market. None of this includes international; that’s icing on the cake. Plus, Recell GO will likely increase market penetration significantly.
Let’s say that Recell’s current market penetration stays the same for each indication with no additional international expansion. If the company realized $10.5 million in Q1 revenue, we can multiply that times 25 to get an idea of what conservative revenue could look like, ballpark figure. —$262.5 million per quarter in revenue. —$1.05 billion per year. Let’s say conservatively that 50% of that is free cash flow. —$525 million per year in FCF. Now, let’s apply a PE ratio of 10 to be very conservative (growth companies usually have PE around 20-50); you get a market cap of $5.25 billion.
Again, these figures are ballpark and don’t include international expansion or additional market penetration due to Recell GO. They also assume the same penetration for each indication that we have for burns today. The market cap ballpark figure is using a PE ratio of 10, which is typical for mature companies that have reached market saturation; growth PE is often substantially higher. Overall, you’re looking at a gain of 19X in share price. With more market penetration, a higher PE, new indications (ie cosmetics), and international expansion, the gains could go quite higher. Keep focused on the long game. Don’t let manipulation work on you.
It's all in the delivery.
If you live your life disparaging dead people and widows and poking folks when they are down, the world isn't going to make it easy on you.
NOUN
(in Hinduism and Buddhism) the sum of a person's actions in this and previous states of existence, viewed as deciding their fate in future existences
I’m assuming that CEO had good discussions with FDA at the 100 day meetings. Why else would be be so confident to hire 40 more sales reps? Keep in mind that the Recell part of the process of treating wounds is nearly identical whether treating burns, soft tissue, or vitiligo, and Recell already has FDA approval for kids and adults for burn injuries.
No doubt success is "just around the corner." Wow, I see this board is >ten years old. I don't buy tiny biomed stocks. Most are perpetual startups. Vapor. I require GAAP profits and usually dividends.
But I make money with my investments.
I for one appreciate the granularity the CEO gave investors. The FDA works on approvals. Their job is not to update investors. The executives of Avita have that job. For me it's another factoid, to measure the CEO on. If his timeline is met, I'll be more confident in his forecasts. If he is wildly wrong, I will question further alerts. Looks to me like they are looking to ramp sales as fast as they can.
Why doesn't the CEO let the FDA speak for itself in June? Or does he have some stock to dump right now?
"-CEO confident of FDA approvals.
-June 7 soft tissue approval expected.
-June 17 vitiligo approval expected."
-CEO confident of FDA approvals.
-June 7 soft tissue approval expected.
-June 17 vitiligo approval expected.
-current burns target market: 25,000
-post soft tissue approval target market: 145,000
-145,000/25,000= 5.8 multiple
-post vitiligo launch target market: 645,000
-645,000/25,000= 25.8 multiple
-70 reps now. More cost effective hiring early.
-marketing for soft tissue to begin right after approval.
-Recell Go enables international and vitiligo
-Recell Go launches ASAP after January 1, 2024 approval.
-Recell Go ESG-friendly
-International expansion details in Q4 2023
-Q1 2025 breakeven of burns and soft tissue with $30+ million remaining for vitiligo and international
-Q3 2023 is peak expenses. Expenses to decline after that.
-Chief Commercial Officer is no longer an expense and the role will not be replaced.
-Company looking for partner in Australia; this is priority.
-soft tissue promotion will be launched in 70+ hospitals in Q2.
-83% margins expected to grow as volumes increase
-Shelf offering is not an actual offering. It’s preparation for offering. Replaces previous shelf offering. Structures company to be flexible.
-30% of burns market is in trauma centers and accessible after soft tissue approval.
Correction, the $0.55 “typo” is actually the correct EPS, but in AUD, so the EPS miss was by more than 5% that I posted. However, that EPS miss can be explained by one off severance expenses and rollout expenses.
Just wait til the sellers from Friday realize that the $0.55 EPS loss is a typo. It’s actually a $0.37 EPS loss. Do the calculation yourself by bringing up the 10Q on SEC’s Edgar. Run Net Loss / Average Outstanding Share Count. Since the share count didn’t change much, I’ll use the share count on the last 10Q of 25,327,761 outstanding shares. The net loss from the 10Q was $9,220,000. So, $9,220,000/25,327,761. You get $0.364 loss per share. —A big difference compared to Google’s EPS of $0.55 loss per share. Turned a good report into a what-the…. I find the typo suspicious, especially when viewing the manipulative after-hours activity combined with a retail shareholder majority ownership and major FDA approvals just a month away. The actual EPS miss was only 4-5%, not 55% as shown on Google. Piper Sandler increased their price target after the report. You can find typo of $0.55 loss per share in the 8K posted to Edgar on 5/12/23
Seems a bit overdone to me. Not great but not worth a 20% haircut either. Reiterating guidance was helpful.
Hi chaps
1st quarter results look in good order any idea why the drop in sp
When I responded to your post…..i meant that I agree with you…..this is not very good…..I my opinion!
I hope you are correct but so far the price action says I am.
I dont think so!
This offering will probably not be good for the share price and the current stock holders.
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