Avid Bioservices Inc (CDMO)

[westjtter]

Yup....all about timing also! Hopefully the upcoming CC will offer some positive developments about filling up our capacity, and yes perhaps the market will be a little more welcoming of positive news, so we get some benefit in the share price.

As frustrated as this whole debacle was, Nick is a take care of it guy, or rather that has been his reputation. Hopefully he can pull this thing together again and start reeling in those orders!!!

[geocappy1]

Good sign holding up in tough market. Hopefully.

[djohn]

Putting this behind us should be positive but not the market tanks. Can't get a break.

[jbainseky]

Well at least AVID modified the indenture for the 2029 notes so if they forget to remove the restrictive legend, it is not reason for default!

FFTT
JBAIN

[r622102675]

Will Hart be MIA?…r

[r622102675]

CC Monday after the bell…r

[westjtter]

Yes, very good points...I guess no one was responsible and no big deal??????

But going beyond that, just confirming guidance of $137 mil to $147 mil is not going to get it done! The backlog of $206 mil is great, but a backlog in itself does not add to the revenues. For this stock to go anywhere in the near term(2 YEARS), they will have to start converting this backlog to revenues....to go from $140 mil to $400 mil will take a lot of solid incremental revenue increases every quarter.

Even if they hypothetically increased their revenues by an additional $10 mil per quarter(which they have not been able to do over the last year since they somewhat regressed) that would just take us to $180 mil next year(2025).....$220 mil the year after(2026)......well you get the picture...even with these kinds of increases they have a long way to go to get to $400 mil....lets call this the promised land of $25 to $28 per share.....in the range of 7 years.....that is IF they are able to achieve this kind of revenue growth!

The Laughing Water Capital article and comments seem to indicate closer to a 2 year timetable to fill their capacity....not sure how they arrived at that with current guidance for 2024 of $137 to $147 mil??? That would mean that in 2025 they would pull in an additional $250 Mil in revenue???

I guess we will just have to wait and see if the next quarter finally begins to show some solid growth, as without that, we are not going anywhere quickly!

[4OurRetirement]

"Immaterial" Also Implies, The PPS Crash From $8's...

$20's & Also Possibly The $30's!...

Were All Over Reactions And Market Manipulation!

I'm Holding To See Rebound From This Fiasco,
Which, As Far As I'm Concerned,
Could Have Been All Planned!...

In The Future, Many May Look Back And Realize
The Buyer Of $CDMO Really Simply Manipulated
Things That The SEC Simply Doesn't Oversee!

Glta Bulls, Watchers, & StockHOLDERS!

[djohn]

The adjustments were immaterial.
Still had a lousy quarter.
Now paying 7% on borrowed money
No one took responsibility for the mistake
No one received consequences for the mistake
Corporate Life in the C-Suite. How sweet it is!

[4OurRetirement]

Btw, Today Should Resolve NASDAQ Noncompliance Issues! Glta,eom.

[jbainseky]

Does everyone feel better now? Looks like restating was a little more involved.

FFTT
JBAIN

[4OurRetirement]

AvidBioservices Reports FinancialResults for Third Quarter Ended January31,2024...

link:
https://ir.avidbio.com/news-releases/news-release-details/avid-bioservices-reports-financial-results-third-quarter-ended-1

Glta $CDMO Bulls, Watchers, & StockHOLDERS!

[djohn]

Looks like the three 10Q/A's all have the same conclusion of the adjustments, "immaterial" is the word used

[cheynew]

https://ir.avidbio.com/news-releases/news-release-details/avid-bioservices-reports-financial-results-third-quarter-ended-1

Recorded Third Quarter Revenue of $33.8 Million --
-- Signed $41 Million in Net New Business Resulting in Record High Backlog of $206 Million --
-- Celebrated Completion of Recent Expansion Program with Grand Opening of Cell and Gene Therapy Manufacturing Facility in January 2024 --
-- Completed Convertible Debt Offering Subsequent to Quarter End, Extending Debt Maturity to 2029 --

Latest trade. 04/24/2024 17:09:55 EDT W 6.83 167902 NDD

[ArchieK]

I recently reached out and got a response quickly.

[djohn]

I have met Stephanie several times an actually she is a very nice person. I talk to her for a long time at the last "in person" ASM when I was the only shareholder who attended. So she remembers me. Since then she has always responded to my emails. You just can't over do it or ask her questions that would evolve non public information.

[4OurRetirement]

Avid Bioservices Issues New 10Q Filing, Link Attached...

https://ir.avidbio.com/node/20751/html

Glta Bulls, Watchers, & StockHOLDERS!

[cheynew]

10K filed.

https://ir.avidbio.com/node/20736/html

[westjtter]

I have been sending emails with question to our investor relations person Ms Diaz, but have not received any responses at all....not even to say that she is not able to respond or does not have that information, or will check with management, or when we will have our next CC, etc.???

Not sure what the point is in having an Investor Relations person if they do not respond to emails asking pertinent questions.

Anyone else having an luck getting a response from Stephanie?

[r622102675]

Re:Laughing Water...The mention of HALO in the article had me look at their 10k...on their comment regarding bulk rHuPH20..."future capital resource expeditures" ... "the costs of investments in our ENHANZE platform and auto-injector technology including development of new versions of rHuPH20 and auto-injector devices" ...and ... "the costs to develop and validate additional manufacturing processes of rHuPH20, auto-injectors, and testosterone replacement therapies"...with Catalent being excluded from these scenarios one would think that we would have the inside track for these considerations...no?...imao...r

[westjtter]

Well, Laughing Water Capital did a good job of explaing the incompetence that happened at Avid that led to our demand payment call on our existing financing vehicle and then having to negotiate a new convertible financing agreement....yes the interest costs alone will cost at least $10 million and had this debacle not taken place, there was a reasonable chance that Avid could have paid off the existing agreement with the increased revenues from contracts along with some standard short term bank financing which would have meant that there would have been zero dilution on this deal having the convertible set at $21.21.....and even if there was a convert on this....I mean if the financiers would have converted at $21.21...well we all would have been happy regardless of the dilution....right??!!

Now back to reality...instead of 1.25% interest on a $144 financing and a convertible at $21.21 we have a new financing deal(due 2029) of $160 million at 7% and a convertible at $9.89, which hopefully will be converted(or else we are really in trouble) at some point, which will lead of course to greater dilution!

However not all is lost, as if you believe in what Laughing Water Capital had to say, things still look very good for the share price going forward...so their target or projected price was only moved down from $30 to $33 to $25 to $28.....so depending how long it takes to fill their capacity, still a pretty strong return on the current value of the shares......unless of course there are more screw-ups down the road!

So I guess I am OK to wait a couple of more years to find out if these guys know what they are talking about and will be happy to walk away with anything in the $25 to $28 range!!!

Still waiting for the restated earnings and of course that long delayed CC.....any questions???

[MusicBizExec]

I agee. I just hate trading such a tight range after these type of bonehead mistakes. It is amazing how many times this investment has been knee-capped 😬

[jbainseky]

trading patter sure don't look like no options play. EOM

[djohn]

We should see something by the end of the year or they fill the the backlog to capacity. Which ever comes first.
I personally think we don’t hear a thing until they have some good news on the sales front. So it softens the blow of the incompetence that happened. They can say look at what we did. Everything is good no personal changes needed

[MusicBizExec]

Avid may be the most "misunderstood" ever 🤔🤑

AltraVue Capital is a value-oriented investment manager. We specialize in making long-term investments in a select number of high-quality businesses that have been neglected or misunderstood by the market.

[MusicBizExec]

Michael,

I think the 60 days is to come up with a plan that NASDAQ can approve. Here is an excerpt that I found.

"In accordance with Nasdaq's listing rules, the Company will have 60 calendar days after the receipt of a notification letter from Nasdaq to submit a plan of compliance to Nasdaq addressing how the Company intends to regain compliance with Nasdaq's listing rules, and Nasdaq will have the discretion to grant the Company up to 180 calendar days from the due date of the Form 10-K to regain compliance."

Hopefully they won't take that long.

Best regards
dw

[hayward]

MusicBizExec

I am almost certain its 60 days to regain compliance IMO

Michael

[ArchieK]

Did, thanks.

[cheynew]

I didn’t see a link on their website, but you can ask Stephanie to add your info at mailto:[e-mail].

[bfiest]

Informative, unbiased article. Very good read. Sadly, seems like more information than we will ever glean from the company under current legal guidance. Certainly doesn’t shine a positive light on the players involved in the note fiasco including internal legal. Just inexcusable and there should be “accountability”. Even so paints a positive picture for Avid’s future.

I just wish Nick would stand up, communicate, take the heat and move forward even though the note fiasco was not his direct responsibility. That’s leadership. I’m ready for them to move past this. AIMO

[djohn]

Personally I don't think Nick should go. Nick built this thing, he should see it through. I agree with the article "These are things that one just expects to be done, especially when there is a CFO, internal legal, external legal, and the bankers who structured and sold the bond all involved."
Hart and Ziebell should go and new outside law firm and banker should be hired.

[Bluerinse]

Great article, it is unfathomable that heads don't roll over this. Start with Nic the 6 mil dollar man and destroyer of shareholder value

[djohn]

This is about the best explanation of what happened and going forward I have read so far.
Read all information on Avid. All the way down.

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4684511-laughing-water-capital-q1-2024-letter

Interesting comments on HALO possibly moving more business to Avid

[Preciouslife1]

https://www.genengnews.com/insights/viral-vector-capacity-a-biopharm-problem-cdmos-can-solve/

[MusicBizExec]

It's been 30 days since NASDAQ issued the non-compliance notice. I think they have 180 days to cure this default but that is no excuse for the lack of communication with shareholders. In my opinion, canceling the earnings call was a huge mistake. And that was on top of an already huge mistake. Why have they not updated shareholders? The only thing that matters at this point is SALES.

SHAREHOLDERS HAVE A RIGHT TO KNOW WHERE THEIR INVESTMENT STANDS AT THIS POINT.

[ArchieK]

Could you share how you set this level of communication up? I have LinkedIn with a few of the folks so see some things there that's nowhere else. This lack of outbound communication (hopefully just to retail??) is so frustrating but if I can get more I'd be happy!

[cheynew]

I didn’t get an email from Avid on the filing as I usually do. What’s up with that? I got emails on all the Form 4’s the other day.

[ArchieK]

Money talks. Good to see.

[cheynew]

Altravue Capital filed a 13G yesterday raising their percent to 5.3% from 4.7%.
https://ir.avidbio.com/node/20731/html

[Preciouslife1]

Yes and an 80% decline or precipitous drop in a few short years, speaks volumes to so many areas of poor managerial decisions, for bookings, poor, financial fiduciary responsibility, overseeing the ledgers, nothing happening with the viral vector project and about absolutely almost 0 communication with Management since their mess up with alone interest payments, which cost us a shareholders dearly imho!!! From $35 down to $4+ now $6.71 There’s about an a bad investment as buying a boat that you know has leaks in it! Hoping for the best I’m praying for ALL!

[r622102675]

No comment on the 200 contracts for $5 dec puts from Monday @ .85?…r

[djohn]

The fact we are down 65% from one year ago, kind of ruins any talk of an up trend.

[jbainseky]

well a 6-month chart shows a general uptrend since December, even with the "correction" for the convertible issue. What is your definition of an uptrend if CDMO is not in one?

FFTT
JBAIN

[djohn]

Positive trend? Please do explain? lol

[jbainseky]

with sharp drops it looks like MM moving the PPS. Most people don't do market sells this early in a positive trend.

FFTT
JBAIN

[jbainseky]

Might be tough to punch through $7.50. Sure looks like someone is in the accumulation mode. Not sure if it is a MM or II.

FFTT
JBAIN

[4OurRetirement]

Will $CDMO Bulls EndTheDay At HighOfDay? Glta,eom.

[Preciouslife1]

DRUG SHORTAGES AT ALL TIME HIGH ….

Finding just what the doctor ordered is getting increasingly difficult as more and more prescription drugs become scarce.
From household names like Adderall and Ozempic to cancer treatments, a record 323 drugs were in short supply during the first quarter of 2024, the American Society of Health-System Pharmacists (ASHP) reported recently. The ASHP, which has published the metric since 2001, says the number of hard-to-get drugs has surpassed the previous record high from a decade ago.
It’s hard to overstate the stakes: Not having the right medication on hand is forcing doctors to prescribe alternatives that are often inferior to Plan A treatments. With patient well-being on the line, healthcare regulators are scrambling to find a panacea for a problem that’s been festering since 2021.

Diagnosing a cause
Experts cite a variety of reasons for the widespread shortages: Surging demand can lead to scarcities for drugs like Adderall, which is being prescribed extensively via telehealth, as well as the buzzy weight-loss drug Ozempic.
US regulations incentivize the makers of generic drugs to compete on price, diminishing the motivation for pharma companies to produce them.
Injectables like Ozempic are manufactured through a heavily regulated, technically difficult process that can easily derail.
The Biden administration announced a $5 billion plan earlier this month that it says would help keep pharmacy shelves stocked. It aims to boost transparency in obscure pharma supply chains by tasking an independent organization with scoring manufacturers on their production resilience and quality. Private hospitals that work with reliable generic drug suppliers would be rewarded with extra cash, while those who don’t would be penalized.

The ASHP criticized the proposed penalties, arguing that hospitals that don’t have the means to comply with the requirements would take a financial hit.
Looking ahead: The plan will remain just a plan until lawmakers in Congress agree to greenlight it.

https://links.morningbrew.com/c/jw7?mbcid=35045753.3696491&mid=99265661b2b9e9fcebad1b6287ef164f&mbuuid=kjeiugMA3FMwfayecW3i5Bfj

[horselover45]

Def some rediculous silence from Avid.
Stupid me was expecting a PR about Thursday's CC.Will we hear something tom or just more guessing games. Never expected That Nick's handling Avid would turn out this way.
BUT then what do us retail investors expect!!!

[north40000]

Another ambiguity: In our TD Ameritrade account remaining, the Latest Earnings Announcement is set for today, 4/15/2024, but it sets the Upcoming Earnings Announcement as 4/18/2024. I gather 4/18 is correct.