Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Moved up at close to finish at 4.34
Trading range looks to be buy near low 4s and sell near 4.3 for now as quarter nears end. Let's see where they close it tomorrow.
April will be a new game. Start of a new quarter.
They better not "externalize" management. That's one of the latest trends to give management more money. If you see that as a proposal, sell.
stockdoc
No pop in price. Anti-climax day after yesterday's high volume day. Funds have till tomorrow to window dress the March quarter.
ABTL really looks like a dead issue to me. The longer I look and the more that I see that Coats is just stringing us along. Same comment quarter after quarter,..."thanks for your patience" says Coats. I just don't see that he's concerned about anything but himself. He won't put his own money into the company, won't do anything with the $15 million or so he has in cash, won't give us any idea what they're doing. ABTL can't even make it to a dollar presplit after all this time.
This company's really beginning to scare me. Maybe everyone else who isn't invested in ABTL sees some dangers here that we don't. Coats may have plans for the millions, and the plans may not involve ABTL shareholders. I'm really beginning to wonder.
stockdoc
Might have a last hour push. As still down, despite high unusual volume.
Nice action today, good upside volume! Volume =$
That's about the third time that one of the callers pushed Coats/ABTL to issue a dividend. ABTL can't seem to find anything good to do with all that cash, and they still won't do a dividend. The dividend should be sustainable, and with business going as it is, sustainability for at least three or four years seems possible.
So, what are they going to do with all that cash? They never want to answer that question. Either they just don't know, or they have something in mind. They can't just sit there being stupid about the whole thing....or can they?
stockdoc
Or ABTL may surprise by announcing a dividend. Yeah sure.
The guy on the last conf call was making his case for a dividend.
Coats typical response was "Every option will be considered. Everything is on the table."
If it is any consolation to you stockdoc, I am in this stock since Craig Hallum first picked coverage many years ago. Their picks usually do well. This one did nothing. Except for 1 spike due to momo traders.
The problem is, ABTL might just decide to sell the company. (yeah, sure) If that happens, the stock will very likely go flying up before you have a chance to buy back in.
I know you've heard that a thousand times before, but, you never know what's going to happen from day to day. It's a real tough call. Right now, as ever, it's just more crap.
stockdoc
:) LOL
I still follow ABTL closely. It's like ex g/f situation, when you still curious about whom she dates after you. I may jump back in, but only after I see real improvements. Few pennies a quarter won't do it.
Spartak, please note that the pay's still the same for your old job here on Ihub..."zero". Likewise for the benefits.
stockdoc
We have to keep ABTL management happy. Coats can't do his job properly if he has to worry about when and how he's going to get his next Rolls-Royce. So, be nice.
stockdoc
P.S. Your old job's still open here on Ihub.
Wow... 3.98... 0.79 pre R/S. Looks like I wasn't the only one who got tired of keeping dead money in ABTL. Money must make money, not to support lavish lifestyle of inept CEO and BOD members.
Funds are holding millions of shares, and we're not seeing anywhere near that kind of volume trading. Ihub's just showing the usual mom and pop shares, so I kind of doubt that funds are doing their change-outs. Although the volume's higher than usual it just looks to me like average shareholders are getting tired of holding a losing stock in a record breaking market. Also, breaking under the $4 mark probably triggered sales. Looks like that's where we're headed...under $4.
Stockdoc
LOL. Coats counters with one of those typical ABTL PR's.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/autobytel-named-finalist-drivingsales-most-221700427.html
thats kinda what i was thinkin also. well it looks like coats recent purchase is under water,lol!
Will be frustrating to see the stock stay below 4, if it does that.
End of quarter(EOQ) trade for those funds frustrated with ABTL, I think. It will likely move higher by the end of March as the stock has been in an uptrend and the recent buyers won't relinquish that trend before EOQ and will try to window dress.
We just live or die once every three months when the quarterly report comes out. Nothing much in between unless we get some interesting PR.
Were in a funk here boys? Up or down?
I hope he didn't go broke buying stock just to help the shareholders out.
stockdoc
Don't you wonder about who ABTL management thinks they're fooling when they make these small buys? When insiders buy stock in their own company, the alarm bell goes off in some of these investment services and alerts go out to their subscribers. The problem is, of course, that when investors see how many shares insiders are actually buying in ABTL, they probably just laugh it off. That just makes ABTL look foolish and does more harm than it does good.
stockdoc
Every time I see these petty insider buys, I feel a bit of pain because that means outright sale of ABTL is no longer imminent.
Plus these buys are too small.
DeWalt: 700 shares. Looks like Coats is cracking the whip and trying to make it look like there's heavy insider trading going on. Let's see if coats gives up lunch for a couple days and uses the money to buy a couple shares.
Stockdoc
I see that ABTL just came through with an SEC filing. Steerman bought 1200 shares of ABTL. Too bad Coats doesn't make a few purchases to show his confidence in ABTL's future.
stockdoc
One says $5, and the other says $7. Do we get to choose which one we want? Nice to see that there's some positive opinions of what ABTL is doing.
Geronimo, thanks for the postings.
stockdoc
Thanks Geronimo for the Roth report.
From Jared Schramm at Roth Capital:
ABTL: 4Q12 Results
ABTL reported 4Q12 results in-line with expectations as the company continues to see improved traction in its retail dealer purchase request volumes; however, we expect near-term investments intended to drive lead volume growth will hamper margin expansion in 2013. Lowering price target to $5.00, maintain Buy rating.
Dealer lead revenue improves: ABTL expanded its dealer lead revenue by 18% y/y in 4Q12, with the segment improving 10% y/y in 2012. This represents the first y/y increase in the retail space since 2008, attributable to a 7.5% y/y increase in dealer count in 2012.
We expect the company will continue to see improvements in this space as its recent study with R.L. Polk validates its close rates as being three-times industry average at approximately 23% for its flagship Autobytel.com site. We believe ABTL’s recent efforts to educate its customers as to the quality of its product in comparison to its competitors is becoming evident via improved dealer lead volumes.
Light vehicle sales outlook stable: J.D. Power increased its Retail Light Vehicle sales outlook in February to 12.5mm, up from 12.4mm previously. Given the strong historical correlation between US light vehicle sales and ABTL’s purchase request volumes, we believe J.D. Power’s expectation of y/y growth through 2015 remains a positive tail-wind for the company.
4Q12 results: Revenue of $16.9mm, up 4.2% y/y, was in-line with our estimate of $16.8mm. 4Q12 gross margin of 37.8% declined 470bps y/y due to increased investment in the company’s search engine marketing team as the company looks to drive lead volume growth. 4Q12 GAAP diluted EPS of $0.04 was flat y/y and ahead of our estimate of $0.02. Adjusted EBITDA of $0.9mm was in-line with our estimate.
Maintain Buy rating but lowering price target to $5.00: We are lowering our price target to $5.00, from $6.00. While we believe ABTL remains poised to expand its market-share in an improving light vehicle sales landscape, we expect near-term investments will weigh on margins in FY13. Our $5.00 price target is based on an 8x multiple to our FY13 EV/EBITDA estimate. Maintain Buy rating.
From George Santana of Ascendiant Capital Markets:
Autobytel Inc.
Q4 2012: With another quarter of profitability and cash flow, company switches to growth mode. Reiterate Strong Buy
Q4 (Dec.) 2012 results marked another solid quarter. Revenues were $16.9mm, -3.1% sequentially and +4.3% y-o-y, versus our $17.1mm forecast. Cost control remained strong, resulting in diluted EPS of $0.04 vs. our $0.02 forecast.
Operating EBITDAS was $1.0mm, in line with our $1.0mm forecast.
Operating leverage in the model begins to appear. For the year, revenues were $66.8mm, +4.7%, net income more than tripled to $1.4mm, and Operating EBITDAS was $4.4mm, +29%. (Guidance had been for 3-5% revenue growth and a tripling of net income.)
Notably, Q4 2012 was the 7th consecutive quarter of profitability and 8th consecutive quarter of positive EBITDAS. Solid net-cash balance sheet. Autobytel continues to accumulate cash, even
after repurchasing $1.5mm of common stock in the first half of 2012. (Cash and equivalents were $15.3mm at year-end, less a convert of $5.0mm, for net cash of $10.3mm or $1.16 per share.)
Strengthening U.S. auto sales should provide a nice tailwind. With
strengthening consumer demand and increasing availability of auto financing, U.S. auto sales and promotional activity by auto manufacturers and dealers – the two drivers of Autobytel’s business – should continue to grow steadily.
Operating leverage: Management contends that current level of operating expenditures is sufficient to support much higher revenues, a nod to the scalability of Autobytel’s Internet-based business. Rebounding U.S. vehicle sales and increasing promotional activity should translate into higher revenues and even stronger growth in profits and cash flow.
We are adjusting our 2013 forecast: revenues from $74.6mm to $71.7mm; EPS unchanged at $0.24; Operating EBITDAS from $5.3mm to $5.1mm. We introduce our 2014 forecast: for revenues of $79.2mm; EPS of $0.53; and Operating EBITDAS of $7.2mm.
On the earnings call, management was much more vocal about driving growth. Autobytel is making its first real non-replacement hires for the first time in years, reflecting higher business volume as auto sales strengthen and potential gains in market share on the very favorable data coming out of the Polk study.
We believe ABTL deserves an in-depth look, as the stock has yet to reflect the significant improvement in the company’s business. EV of $28mm values the company at 5.6x and 4.0x forecast Operating EBITDAS for 2013 and 2014, respectively. With a net cash balance sheet, rebuilt and consistent cash flow, and a low valuation, we believe the stock should begin to attract the attention of
GARP and other small-cap value investors.
Reiterate Strong Buy and maintain our price target of $7.00, which is based on an EV multiple of 9x forecast 2013 Operating EBITDAS.
There you go. That what I was afraid of after putrid financials. I posted before that if Coats delivered our PT would have probably been increased. But since Coats did absolutely nothing - PT decrease was a writing on the wall.
Geronimo can you post details of the Roth report if you have it?
Thanks.
Roth cuts target today to 5$.
* Roth Capital cuts price target to $5 from $6; rating buy
I was hoping that they might hit .20 per share for the year but, of course, that was way too much to expect. My greatest concern is that ABTL is just going to keep going along, year after year, making the same kind of earnings they are now.
That's especially true considering that ABTL always claimed that as soon as vehicle sales went back to previous levels that they would be back making some good earnings. Here we are, vehicle sales headed for 14.5 million for the year, and ABTL not doing much of anything. If this is ABTL's future, then we should all move on.
stockdoc
I think we all knew earnings were going to be "just inline" this last quarter. No need to hit the panic button here. But they need to quit sitting on their hands/money.
Nice to see that we're on the upside today. After Friday's beating, I was really concerned that we were going to go down somemore today.
Glad to see we have a few people buying.
stockdoc
My average is ridiculously high owing to the fact that I bought when this company was actually worth something and management was doing something more than collecting big salaries and watching the world go by.
As with many investors, my main concern is that as soon as I hit the "sell" button, these guys at ABTL will decide to do something half way productive and crank the price of the stock up. It really is undervalued, and with just about any other management, I believe the stock could be appreciably higher.
Sell or hold...I don't know. I wouldn't advise anyone either way. The only thing I see in it's favor is that the company is making some modest improvement and it looks like it will continue throughout the rest of this year. (emphasis on the word "modest")
Dividend: no
More buy Rec's: maybe, but analysts just don't see much from currect management.
More Acquisitions: possibly, but they already cherry-picked the best one.
Sell ABTL: maybe, but management and the BOD doesn't want to lose their big salaries and perq's.
All opinions welcome.
stockdoc
yeah thinkin the same thing here. my average price is 4.25 so getting out now may be a good idea, cant decide though?
Spartak, sorry to see you go, but I understand totally. Putting up with the pain that we get each and every quarter isn't easy, and it isn't necessary. There are plenty of other companies out there willing to work and do something in behalf of its shareholders...believe it or not. Not all companies are like ABTL and its poor excuse for management. Coats said they're clearing a million a quarter, and doing nothing with it. These jerks couldn't even bring the price up to a buck (presplit).
To sum things, the market doesn't like Autobytel, it doesn't like Coats, and probably never will. Autobytel is a totally boring, lack-luster company with management that has no vision and no concern for shareholders. I'll be so happy to sell all my ABTL stock and move on to a different company that has a future.
stockdoc
Good luck. You may want to have a look at HCKT. Similar price range as ABTL. And is nicely profitable. Makes about 16m a year in profit.
Buy on pullbacks like ABTL.
SP of 4.26 is like mount Everest for ABTL. Trips down from there.
I'm out, gang. I hate to do it, but I can no longer be a silent lamb. 2 years of nothing. Enough is enough. Now Coats can do what he's best at - making money for himself and his directors leaving shareholders' bare bone, but this time without me sponsoring his enterprise. To say I was dissapointed with the rusults is to say nothing. I was ashamed! 4 pennies? Ok, I would have still waited if Coats owned at least more shares than I had. But, why would he? He's doing great with his salary and bonuses. He should, probably, award himself with another stock options.
All in all IMO ABTL has only ONE chance of making it up for shareholders - buyout. Managment is content with making money for themselves and nothing for shareholders. I just don't see any potential here besides buyout or, maybe, managment change. With this group it's just the same story every quarter, every year.
I will miss you guys. Especially you, doc.
Autobytel sitting on their hands again. What's so hard about doing like the guy said, "if you aren't doing anything with the cash and you aren't getting any interest, give the money back to shareholders as a dividend".
If they can't doing anything worthwhile with the cash, I can, and I can do a lot with it.
stockdoc
yep, same old , same old. Maybe next quarter guys, lol!
Lol, what a close!! makes no sense why in a matter of two seconds we go from 4.26 to 4.56! If their earnings are great and the public sees that painted close at 4.56 we may be on our way up? I know im reaching here,lol!
I just got the Autobytel hype of the month. ABTL taking credit
for four percent of the new car retail sales over the last two years. They're running slightly short of what they predicted quite some time ago.
stockdoc
I'm really hoping that they come out with some surprisingly good earnings. I also hope the Easter Bunny will stop by my house and leave an Easter basket. Shows how far gone I am.
If Coats' guidance is accurate, we'll all be sitting here tomorrow asking why we stayed with ABTL. Maybe next quarters report will be better.
stockdoc :(
Incidentally, if you listen to any reports on Apple Computer, it sounds the same in many ways as ABTL. Sitting with a lot of cash that they won't give away as dividends, and nothing good for the company to invest in. Shareholders are upset.
Followers
|
12
|
Posters
|
|
Posts (Today)
|
0
|
Posts (Total)
|
1711
|
Created
|
06/30/06
|
Type
|
Free
|
Moderators |
Volume | |
Day Range: | |
Bid Price | |
Ask Price | |
Last Trade Time: |