Atna Resources Ltd. (fka ATNAQ)

[betahighlander]

OT- i was able to pick up 2500 shares of Karnolyte- funny Scottrade never reports the sale?
They show Zero volume, Got them at .743
Grey market weirdness i suppose.

[betahighlander]

ot- Brand- i should probably put together a watch list for your specs.

David Sims and a a few others have put together a 30% stake in IMPHO. a non cumulative pfd. They are have trying to get the company to offer shares for their pfds. There is a large NOL and a few other things. there are two pfd offerings Imphp (?) is a little more.
IMP is the underlying common stock- is in the mtg field. You might be interested. They have a google group that is closed and you must request invitation.
https://groups.google.com/forum/#!forum/impac-mortgage-preferred-stock

if you are a google groups member for fannie n freddie it is pretty easy to do.
if not you have to set up some kind of google e-mail, get a name and password.
I think i had trouble the first go round but worked the second time.

my google e-mail is : [e-mail]
If you need my work e-mail : i will send it to you from the google mail account.

[brandemarcus]

ot-Well what if you sold the pfd and put into this sector. You would have been worse off, although you would have suffered more slowly.
It's funny to be now agreeing with tby - that the disconnect is now in favor of the pfd. It's funny to reread some of my posts in early 2013 where I was one of the lonely voices advocating for the common at 25-30 cents. On the other hand, Joe Stocks was more right than I was in predicting the governments attitude.
As for the resource and gold sector most of these stocks have been totally decimated and taken out their lows from the dark days of November 2008.
While potash and uranium are much lower than their 2008 prices, gold and silver (mostly gold) are actually higher. Even better what about a major such as nem it's up only 150% from 1998 when gold was 250 per ounce.
Now of course there are plenty reasons (higher oil prices, cost over runs, bad management , really bad management, dilution, rising administrative costs etc, depressed investor sentiment etc. Of course things don't crash this bad with out plenty of reasons.
Back to u308, go look at their latest presentation. Now of course we are talking about uneconomic speculative resources in politically dicey areas -okay I get it. At 60 uranium the stock should be worth 1.7 and it's now 5 cents. I see no reason it's going to go up in tax-loss selling season -maybe down to 4,3 cents ? Don't bet the farm on this obviously -I don't see why it won't be worth a nibble in late December.
If you want to speculate why not potash instead of pot. Please remember the bears on krn are saying -investors don't control the cash and management will piss it away. Need for some consideration of shareholder value.
My crazy speculative strategy - sycrf, gse pfds, resources-much less!, golds much less!. one of these will move before the other gse's or sycrf -reallocate. If there is ever a bull market in some of these stocks, 1000% will be easy.
Stop second guessing yourself -however next time -You may have to think about paying uncle sam. It will probably will be easy next time when have a tax loss on uweff, krltf , atnaf , gss , vegyf , gixef, snrcf , usgif and my all other dogs and my name is mud. One more mega uranium is also getting interesting.

[betahighlander]

ot- Brand - i found this on KRN
was not looking for it.
I am looking for a good site for analysis. market indicators etc..

I wish i sold my fannie n freddie before the crash.

Been there done that before, longggg term holder there.

Should i get back to pre crash levels i think i will cash in and try and trade on my own.
I am not really day trader type but a bottom fisher. I could work on ETF;s maybe.
not sure

http://www.stockhouse.com/opinion/ticker-trax/insights/2014/10/24/fire-sale-48-off-$43-million-net-cash-t-krn-82-cents

ire sale: 48% off $43 million net cash: T.KRN 82 cents
Danny Deadlock Danny Deadlock, TickerTrax
1 Comment| 2 days ago
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Stockhouse Ticker Trax is published to subscribers every Monday (annual cost only $195). We focus on best-in-class high growth small companies trading on the TSX and TSX.V between 5 cents and $3 with a market cap below $300 million.

Equity Analyst Danny Deadlock has 30 years of experience speculating on Canadian penny stocks and targets capital gain opportunities and diversification in metals and minerals exploration, energy, and technology.

For the experienced investor, Ticker Trax provides an extra set of eyes and ears (idea generation) and for those learning to invest in micro cap stocks, we provide stock picks and market education.

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Both tables are updated monthly.



Karnalyte Resources Inc. (TSX: T.KRN, Stock Forum) (82 cents)
www.karnalyte.com

Shares outstanding: only 27 million
Net Cash: $43 million / $1.59 per share



I am not banking on a company like KRN to generate big returns in a few months - I am currently using them to help with capital preservation during rough markets. That doesn’t mean to say Karnalyte isn’t capable of generating big returns in 2015, I just view them more conservatively at this stage.

For the most part, KRN is a boring stock with a LOT of (severely discounted) cash and a great share structure that would move quickly in a more positive market environment - or with material news.

The company owns a large underground potash resource in Saskatchewan that is deemed completely worthless by the market (because the stock trades so far below cash value). In this case a person is simply buying the grossly discounted cash and hoping for a recovery in potash or the junior market in general.



One of India's largest fertilizer companies (GSFC) financed KRN in January 2013 by paying $45 million for a 20% interest. A far cry from the current scenario! This also included a take-or-pay off-take agreement for 350,000 tonnes of the phase I production

http://www.gsfclimited.com/

Gujarat State Fertilizers & Chemicals Limited (GSFC) is an Indian manufacturer of fertilizers and Industrial Chemicals. GSFC was founded in 1967 and manufactures fertilizers, plastics, nylons, fibers, industrial gases and varied chemicals.

The economics of the potash industry have changed dramatically since 2013 but the following analyst insight will shed some light on what this stock previously looked like. It is hard to imagine KRN currently trades at half the cash value - leading me to belief this is a strong bottom fishing opportunity even in a lousy market environment.

There is a good video on their home page plus this corporate presentation provides more due diligence:
http://www.karnalyte.com/_resources/presentation.pdf
________________________________________________________________

BMO Capital Markets:
May 21, 2014

Karnalyte Resources
(KRN-TSX)

Stock Rating: Market Perform(S)
Target Price: $1.75

Highlights from the BMO Capital Markets Farm to Market Conference in New York:

Presentation Highlights:

• KRN provided an update on the development of its 625kt Wynyard Saskatchewan solution-mining potash greenfield, at which the company continues to perform detailed engineering, with Wynyard already having completed a feasibility study and received environmental approval.

• The company reiterated its 2016 target for initial production of 625kt, ramping to 2.125Mt in 5-6 years (BMO currently assumes a 2018 start-up for modeling/valuation purposes).

• KRN maintains a $626M capex estimate for the initial 625kt mine (including $40M for warehouse capacity), and around $2B for the fully ramped operation, as well as $125-129/t for opex. KRN reminded us of the $45M investment by Gujarat State Fertilizers and Chemicals, and the signing of an engagement letter for an additional US$300M in project debt.

________________________________________________________________

2013 ANALYST TARGETS OF $14 and $16 on KRN MISSED BY A COUNTRY MILE
(KRN at the time was trading at $7.90)

http://www.miningweekly.com/article/karnalyte-resources-saskatchewan-project-most-likely-to-secure-financing-2013-03-19

In February, BMO Capital Markets analyst Joel Jackson said that, against a backdrop of depressed mining stocks, challenging equity markets and investor concern that there is a general rising surplus in global potash production, Karnalyte was the most advanced potash junior and most likely to secure mine financing.

On Tuesday, Salman Partners analyst Andrea Rubakovic maintained a ‘buy’ rating on the company’s stock and a $14 price target. “In our view, this project in the Saskatchewan basin is one of the most likely to be financed through to production,” she said in a note to clients.

Fraser Mackenzie analyst Wojtek Nowak - “Overall, we view the funding requirements as manageable relative to other peers who do not have a strategic partner or have larger upfront capex needs.”

Nowak maintained his ‘top pick’ rating and a $16 price target.



_** TWITTER NOTE: I maintain a twitter page at - twitter.com/tsxalerts


________________________________________________________________________

Disclosure: Danny Deadlock owns 40,000 shares of KRN purchased in the open market during 2014.
_________________________________________________________________________

Tags: AGRICULTURAL INPUTS AGRICULTURE
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EOIM
KRN is a classic example of how totally worthless all these junior resource companies are. The 4 year graph is aweful to look. The management has changed ceo three times this year.
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Read more at http://www.stockhouse.com/opinion/ticker-trax/insights/2014/10/24/fire-sale-48-off-$43-million-net-cash-t-krn-82-cents#9VE5FxTEj05lbyw9.99

[brandemarcus]

ot- So far ikn has been right about u308 and I have been wrong. Market cap is now less than 7 million. If it was a pump and a scam , it didn't generate much interest. I don't care that the studies used $60 a pound uranum (current price=35), there are still Npv's of several hundred million. Perhaps the market cap will be under 5 million at the end tax loss season. I will still say that's good option value, but I would have said the same thing at 10 million.

[brandemarcus]

If you didn't get any yesterday, you will soon. It's just a matter of time.

[brandemarcus]

Need to check what's going on up north-symbol is krn.to for Toronto.
Need to get Ld and his wealthy friends on the board so the cash can be nailed down.

[brandemarcus]

If you do it 81 cents, you will get it. If you are patient, you will save a little money your way perhaps. Unlike a smaller company that I mentioned before( npd , rngtf that's supposed to be on it's way to spending it's cash) this one has the spot light on it and it's going to be harder to waste the 45 million. Good luck!

[betahighlander]

Bid 10k some at .775 lets see if it fills?
Scot-trade has different Bid numbers depending on the screen.

So guess what they moved up the bid and the ask.
No shares have traded. I have found when i bid the ask on these thinly traded stocks i get a partial fill and the bid and ask bounce.

These sub dollar stocks are tough to get into tough to get out of.

[brandemarcus]

What are they spending the money on ? Question could be asked of thousands of peer companies.

1. Phocscan has market cap of 43 million with 53 million in cash. project is 2 million tonnes for 20 years so only 4 billion in mineral value.

2. krltf-Claim is 68 years of production at 2 million tonnes of potash. Let's value it at only $100 per ton net after potash prices some how get above $400 to make the project economic. So 13.6 billion- 2 billion in capital =
11.6 billion.Let's say they have to give away 90 % to put it into production. We are still north of a billion with accounting for discount factor since the mine life is very long. Let's assume nothing for magnesium since I don't know anything about that. Note that Intrepid potash is a pure play producer in the us with a market cap of 1 billion and less than a million tonnes of potash production per year. (better check that?)

3. I think an option value of greater than 50 million is not much of a stretch. So round figures 45 plus 45 in cash = 90 canadian/30=3
3*.9 canadian= 2.7 Tender offer at 2.5 with the stock around 85 cents. Perhaps stock down to 75 cents at the conclusion of tax loss selling season.

4. Not a bad margin of safety but I must be delusional. Question is am I
anymore delusional than Judge Lambreth, Bob Corker and John Carney. Apologies to anyone reading this that is not following the Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac soap opera and does not understand what I am talking about.

5. Here's to hoping that sycrf or krltf will make some money that can be reallocated into new pfd or common fnf shares sometime in the near future.


6. Thanks for posting Beta and hopefully some of this info may someday be slightly useful in making money. Back in 1986-early 1987, I knew a fraction of what I know now but actually made a bit of money on mining shares. It was called a bull market as mining shares were in a bubble with gold well over 400.

[brandemarcus]

Cautionary tale- there is another company that has a less advanced phosphate deposit in Ontario than Karnalytes potash deposit. I think it also trades at a discount to cash, though not sure it's anywhere as much as karnalyte. Of course they have been talking for years about buying something with it and nothing happens. I think it's called phoscan.
For an example, one of these companies could loan atnaf the money they need 22 million and get roughly 12% . Worst case you takeover atnaf when they default.
One other cautionary tale is that potash deposits usually have huge capital costs 1-2 billion. Of course just give 80-90% away to a major with the capital and agree to not take any profit percentage until the project has reached payback. This may sound tough - but the big companies have all the leverage.
I know it's has little meaning but investors valued krltf at over $15 Canadian in late 2011. Still buy for 85-87 cents with 1.3-1.4 cash per share plus at least 10-15 cents per share option value-3 to 5 million. Think there is well more than 50 million tonnes of potash which is $300 per
ton. Take an 80 % haircut to adjust for time value gets us 3 billion -give away 90 % to a major and we still got 300 million -$10 per share plus 1.5 in cash. Let's throw the magnesium in for nothing. I will update when I take look at the reserves.

[betahighlander]

balance sheet in great!
not so much about the cash burn
The investor deck does not indicate they are starting production only that it will take 2 years to ramp up.
So what are they spending the money on?

you are correct you get the company Cash for less than the market cap. plus you get the assets for free.

Wonder what the Indian company would pay for the remaining share?
get some of their cash back!

[brandemarcus]

I think it is necessary that investors read points of view that are completely the opposite of my approach. One could read the ikn mining blog , his approach has been correct and will be as long as we continue in resource bear market. He has linked to another blog that predicts atnaf will be zero in two years. Of course, I think there is a greater than 50% chance that will be correct, however the option value of atnaf still makes it a great speculative small speculation.

In the last month the ikn blog recently panned another company that I have been interested in which explores for uranium in South American. u308 corp.
He said the unrealistic high price of uranium used to project a profit on a deposit in Argentina plus other optimistic assumptions cast doubt on anything the company claims. I would say look at the market cap you are paying per ounce (option value!) even if it is uneconomic at current prices. Also check out there Berlin deposit in Columbia.

Finally go read what Sprott said in December of 2013 about another one of my crazy ideas -Virginia Energy(vegyf). Ikn would say that 132 million pounds of barely economic uranium that has a block on current development is worth nothing 0!. I would say it's worth more than it's 2.8 million dollar market cap. Sprott invested at double that price a year ago and I still agree with their reasoning.

[brandemarcus]

I just saw iag is going to sell all there niobium and rare earths for 530 million. Stock goes down because they might spend that cash on other mining
companies-That's a bear market!

[brandemarcus]

Ot-continued-1. High Beta, hope your holding as well as can be expected given the other news.

2. The company krltf, had a large Indian fertilizer company take a position at $8 per share a few years ago.-they recently kicked out the founder and have created turmoil. One of the reasons for the decline in potash prices is reduced subsidies for fertilizer use in India. At some point that potash is going to have to be put back in the soil. Brazil is also an important source of increased demand.

3. I think there is plenty of stability in Potash supply as there is some excess capacity in the Saudi Arabia of Potash-Canada. Situation is much more favorable for phosphate, but there is only one company that has a negative value for their resources and this deposit (karanalytes) has a lot more feasibility reports done on it.

4. On the company's website there was an idea for producing by- product magnesium and reducing cost also.



5. For right now these are side issues -the point is 1.5 in cash with the stock available for 90 cents.. This is straight out of the Graham-Dodd playbook. The potash is just additional option kicker. Bet they also have some tax losses on the books.


6. Considerable discussion is available on stockhouse which specializes in jr mining shares.


7. Again there is plenty of time to investigate-I see no catalysts on the horizon and perhaps plenty of mindless tax -loss selling before the new year. I encourage everyone to investigate and see what I am missing.

8.Let me give two other more conventional contrary picks. Coswf-canadian oil sands royalty trust and Hugoton royalty trust (hgt). Both should be ripe for pickup during the tax loss season which has three more months to go. Information on these can be found on the mcdep site which has respected long time analyst (forgot name) who advised Boone Pickens in the 1980's. Think these are better Bargains than Ld's Lukoil at this time. Many other companies covered on the Mcep.com site.


9. New buys here atnaf not advised at this time- I am taking a look right now at Iag. Can you fill me in on mcp? Iag does have niobium -rare earths component that is hidden asset in that gold stock.

[betahighlander]

Brand- As i recall one of the Baltic /russian republics were part of a syndicate that drove up the potash prices.
the syndicate was broken when they cut a deal with china and potash prices plummeted.
I can see a scenario where they agree to punish the west with high prices again. but the China deal stays in place.

Hard to tell

[brandemarcus]

ot-update showing you how bad the resource sector has become.
Karnalyte resources is now going for 91 cents a share canadian. I know management turmoil and lower potash prices -who would invest in uneconomic potash resources project Well, I think you could get a valuation of north of 10 per share easy at 2008 potash prices. I know it's 2014 today.
But let's forget about that. At 91 cents per share Canadian and 30 million shares outstanding that's value of 27 million. Keep in mind the company has
45 million Canadian in cash on the balance sheet. Okay they burn 4 million in cash year on administrative expenses. Since everyone has a tax loss, (stock was over 14 in 2011(I think) this bargain could get bigger before the end of the year. Still you have to wonder how low we can go before somebody tries a take-under to get the cash and the deposit for a negative amount.

[brandemarcus]

I realize Anv is well known, but I actually like others including atnaf better. Using yahoo numbers market cap for anv is 380 million plus 400 million debt. You are getting around 275k gold equivalent production. Price based on reserves is much better, but why can't they produce more at hycroft if they have 20 million ounces in reserves.

Two alternatives are gss (140 million market cap-60 million debt) but almost the same production as anv. Of course the problem is it's in Ghana.
Price to sales ratio for stadf is little lower than anv at .81. Problem here it's an underground operation in Ontario and can not show a large amount of reserves. Still no debt and some cash.

Atnaf market cap 20 million and 25 million in debt. 40k in production at Briggs and potential for 60-100k production at Pinson. Problem management has a credibility problem with Pinson and who will remember they exist in the early stages of a gold market rally. One might want to take a look at the restructured jaggf here.

Let me back up for a minute. I assume everyone reading this is not running a mining stock mutual fund or writing an investment newsletter. Therefore, I would definitely not buy Cramer favorite gg. GG market cap 23 billion and p/s ratio of 6.3! I know it's safer and has a good profit margin plus mutual fund favorite. Now , why tie up so much capital with small leverage. It's best able to survive a gold down-turn but so what! Just by 1/4 the amount of your gg investment in stadf or anv or even 1/15 of the amount in atnaf and in the long term you will have the same bang for the buck.
My opinion seems logical(at least to me) but I bet it's one not shared by most involved in the sector.

[brandemarcus]

Thanks-letgo!! I was just reading the google fannie and freddie board. I want to caution everyone(all <5 or 10?) not to follow me blindly. You should follow Joe Stocks, ld(little devil) and certainly Cramer (laugh)!

I will soon post an update on my favorites such as atnaf, gss , rvm
usgif , iag and anv, stadf etc. I may even include some of my pump and dumps in other sectors such as gixef, uweff, vegyf , krltf , snrcf and rngtf. I like to post my crazy logic here, since there is an audience of no more than 10 people(sympathetic to contrary analysis and smart!) The audience is far too small for a pump and dump. When the bull market takes off in this sector, I will leave and we will have some of the banter of the fnma board for example.

Actually gixef- geologix explorations is a call option in Mexico. Market cap 12 million and a property with 500 million pounds of copper and 1 million ounces of gold. Managers and directors were once part of a company that became Silver Wheaton. Political risk is high but there is actually an npv study which gives a value of 400 million done in early 2013. This is one to buy after the more well known ones have tripled. It might be worth a token nibble today (half an atnaf position) just on the odd chance of a miracle buyout.

Let me also mention revett minerals -rvm this one has started to move up off the bottom as it recovers from severe ground problems at the troy mine. They can produce at a rate of(by mid 2015?) one million ounces of silver and 10 million pounds of copper per year. There is also the speculative property Rock Creek which is at best 6 years away but 8 times troy's production. Market cap about 45 million.

As soon as this stock is over 40 cents and the board more active, I promise to go somewhere else and pump and dump with the crickets on some other board. I repeat my advice to do your own due diligence etc.

[mortalmyth]

Definitely a nice bit of good news today and the market liked ATNAF. Another step in the right direction.

http://ih.advfn.com/p.php?pid=nmona&article=62676683&symbol=ATNAF

Good day to all.

[brandemarcus]

This company has little control over what happens to it at this point. There has a been a bit of a move up here and in a few other gold jrs.
If gold continues up and this one lags, then this becomes interesting speculation. Small amount of funds only! Let the extreme operating and financial leverage do the work. Read my 9 months worth of posts. I think I have explained how risky and rewarding this one can be.

[mortalmyth]

Not really liking the ATNAF share price action over the last month. The company needs to do something to get investor sentiment to change and the share price out of this malaise of multi-year lows. Just what that is currently escapes me.

Anyway, good day to all.

[brandemarcus]

auy - not much leverage or you tie up too much capital. Too much Central and South America. market cap too big!

iag- should have been more patient with my own advice here. Talk that niobium properties could be worth more than the price of the stock. The gold is free.

stadf- my current favorite is now doing nothing. Only a seven year mine life but good price/sales - no debt- Canada.

anv-value based on reserves, not great based on current production.
Add in the debt and it may be as risky as atnaf. less upside

atnaf- call option-every month that goes by with no big move up in gold means that much closer to expiration and zero. The positive -you have toe in the water of the sector without much capital tie up.
You then keep your huge position in the Gse's plus for me Sycrf.


Other call options -rvm, usgif , axu, vgz, gss

Now for something really crazy - potash -fertilizer companies trading below cash value-Karnalyte Resorces-krltf or krn . Krn -market cap 34 million with 45 million cash. project with npv of over 2 billion.

North American Potash- wide bid and ask spread, market cap 660k , with 900k cash and will get 1.2 million cash or their Arizona property back by November 1. utah property- no reserves . Big problem -company may spend all the cash in the next two years.

On the last two- please be careful about free advice. I apologize for the off-topic pumps but I will stop when the board is more active.

[Letgoofmyfannie]

I'm still hanging around on this one too, also watching ANV, AUY.

[brandemarcus]

As I have said before this is a implied call option. It will probably be bankrupt in 2 years with no move in the price of gold. A safer play( much less upside) would be something like st andrews gold(stadf). 100k production in safe area(canada) and no debt.

[mortalmyth]

Looks like the ATNAF news today was well received. I think they need to continue to aggressively pursue reducing their All-in sustaining cost as $1,175 per ounce is still too high, even if the POG were to rise to $1,500 per ounce. Let's see if there is some follow through for the share price tomorrow.

First Quarter 2014 Financial Highlights

On January 31, 2014, the Company refinanced $22.0 million of current obligations with a 2-year credit facility calling for a balloon payment of principal and fees at the end of the term and interest-only payments over the term. Proceeds from this facility were utilized to retire an existing Canadian-dollar, debt facility. A foreign-exchange gain of $2.3 million was realized from this transaction.

The balance of cash on-hand increased to $1.8 million at March 31, 2014, and the Company had net working capital (current assets less current liabilities) of $13.5 million.

An operating loss of $1.9 million and a net, after-tax loss of $0.9 million, ($0.00) per weighted average share, were recognized.

First Quarter 2014 Operating Highlights

Through May 1, 2014, Briggs concluded 442 days of operation without any lost-time accidents.

Gold sales from Briggs totaled 7,770 ounces, 93 percent of target, at an average sales price of $1,253 per ounce.

Briggs generated $1.5 million in operating cash flow prior to using $1.9 million to increase inventory and reduce debt and payables. Briggs incurred a pre-tax loss of $0.6 million.

The average cash cost per ounce at Briggs was $1,038. This is comparable to cash cost per ounce of $1,098 in First Quarter 2013. All-in sustaining cost was $1,175 per ounce, compared to $1,452 per ounce for First Quarter 2013, a reduction of 19 percent.

Cost per ton of ore crushed declined 31 percent to $17.74 per ton, compared to First Quarter 2013.

A pre-feasibility study is being conducted to determine the viability of an extension to the Mag open pit at Pinson.

An optimization study has commenced to modify mine designs on the Pinson underground mine.

In February 2014, Atna concluded an updated resource and reserve estimate for the permitted Reward Gold Project, integrating new results from the 2013 drilling program and increasing measured and indicated gold resources by 7 percent to 387,900 contained gold ounces. Inferred resources increased 62 percent to 106,400 ounces.

Good day to all.

[brandemarcus]

Again this is really a one year call option on gold prices. For now under 24 million market cap you are the owner of 40k at briggs and possible 60k at PInson of production. With 1800 plus prices maybe Montana starts producing.
When or if this call option expires worthless, other gold miners will be lower than today. In the meantime why tie up your money in Nem , kgc , abx or Cramer favorite gg. That money could stay in financials. You might want to look at other leveraged miners as I'm not 100% confident in management at Pinson.
Remember this is worthless in about 1.5 years with out some move (20%) up in gold prices. 2000 gold moves this up well in excess of 600%.

[betahighlander]

Ouch!- 20% hit.
I am guessing on easing tensions in Ukraine.
heck it was not this low prior to tensions.

gotta be a good buy somewhere in this price range

[brandemarcus]

Seems like an over-reaction to non-cash write downs. I bought some back, so now you know it's going back to 10 cents.

[bigone]

Good thoughts. Thank you.

[JoeBobBigPaw]

I feel this stock is primed for lift off.. at .21 it is a no brainer IMO. Juniors who haven't minded a single ounce can be found at .20 a share.

Management is credible as well as capable. Sprott's ownership of 20%+ is a vote of confidence. I think selling a stake in Pinson would be a mistake... it all depends on where one sees gold going. I see $1,500+ in a couple years no problem. In the meantime they are pulling gold out of the ground while they figure out ways to reduce costs at Pinson.

[brandemarcus]

Can this management team do it at 1067? I would feel lot better if they sold 51% for 15 million and paid down debt with the money.
They can prove their management skills running reward or the Montana property? At 2000 gold this could be worth north of 2.

[JoeBobBigPaw]

Projected costs to mine Pinson at $1,300 gold is $1,067. I think if we see gold stabilize above $1,450 we will see Pinson back in action. In the meantime, Briggs continues to bring in cash-flow at a cost I believe to be $985 per ounce.

As of Oct 2013, Sprott owns 21% of Atna Resources. That may have changed in either direction.

[mortalmyth]

Speak of resource estimates and I shall receive, good timing lol

For their 2013 explorations the measured and indicated resource deposits for gold is up 7%. Looks like a decent amount to keep production going for a while.

http://ih.advfn.com/p.php?pid=nmona&article=61208349&symbol=ATNAF

[brandemarcus]

This stock collapsed when they went into debt to develop Pinson , only to have to stop mining. They blamed price of gold, but management claimed 1200 gold would still be ok when they were developing it.
They now have 22 million in debt and are going too need much higher gold prices to pay off the debt. The huge leverage still makes it an interesting speculation with a small amount of money. With higher gold prices maybe even current management can't mess up Pinson or even better jv and own 49% of it. Pinson was supposed to produce more than 60k per year. There are other potential properties in Montana and Nevada.

[mortalmyth]

From what I've read on another board this company has good potential, so I thought I'd look in here and see what's going on.

I'd think to help them capitalize on $1200 gold and higher, imo they should do what they can to get more out of their Briggs Mine. Just doubling the current production rate of 37K ounces of gold per year would likely increase the share price by four fold, while considering fixed costs spread over more ounces so their cost per ounce improves greatly.

The question is does Atna want to do what it takes and have the ability to do something like that over the next two or so years? I'll admit I've just scratched the surface in looking into this company, and as such, I need to take a look at their reports and see just what they've got by way of identified resource deposits.

Anyway, good evening to all.

[brandemarcus]

I'm sure this stock will continue to go up, because I've sold half my position to bottom fish in Iag. Now watch iag go to a new 52 week low.

[bigone]

Thank you. I shall continue to monitor it.

[The dead cat bouncer]

Yes I do. There are many things which need to fall into place for them.

[bigone]

Do you think that Atna has much potential at $1,200 / ounce gold?

[The dead cat bouncer]

Yes sorry about the confusion. I liked the feed back though. Thought you were some one else.

[brandemarcus]

On the anv board somebody wrote a good analysis of anv. Conclusion it was too risky versus big guys but thought they could survive two more years. My response would be just invest 33% of what you put in (nem?) and you have a better risk reward. If gold doesn't recover in 2 years nem will be down more than 33% , while of course anv , atnaf are worth 0.
In answer to your thinking out loud, how does a hedge fund buy up these companies? They are too small in market cap. Once you have to file some 13g's , the game is over. We just need ld (mr go figure) and company to get involved and the game may be up. One could just buy a few of these companies with cash on the balance sheet of one company and then buy up the rest. I still don't understand why the owners of sunshine silver mines don't just move on usgif. I know Hecla 's pride was hurt by being rejected for 1.8. so they want to pick it up for 0.

[Letgoofmyfannie]

I'm not betting the farm yet... ANV is pretty volatile!


Now just thinking out loud:

if I were a big Hedge Fund or VC Firm while they are so cheap I'd buy up gold, silver and copper mines in the NV AZ area, then...build a giant industrial park northeast of Vegas where high tech manufacturers could build cost effective state of the art robotic facilities and contract for steady supplies of all necessary metals...

[brandemarcus]

I will look at pvg. I can't judge geological risk, would prefer low grade economic risk. So far, my strategy has been a disaster. In about 2002, the former chairman of pan-american silver acquired "low" grade copper mines and formed a company to acquire them.
The formula would be buy barely economic producers for the turn in pm prices(anv, usgif or iag). Then switch to explorers such as vgz or atnaf (small producer) if they lag. When they move find others or look at other commodities I mentioned such as phosphate or uranium.
It's a very high risk strategy so keep some dry powder. There are hundreds of bargains out there, you will find hundreds that I know nothing about. Happy hunting and thanks for posting.

[The dead cat bouncer]

Thank you for the response.

[brandemarcus]

Thanks for the implied compliment(perhaps!?). I don't work in the brokerage industry. I thought my views on leveraged mining stocks were unique. They are influenced a bit by Doug Casey and remotely by Taleb (not a mining stock investor).
I don't feel qualified to give opinions. Pvg is a discovery that Bob Quartermain former investor in Silver Standard is big in. Is it cheaper to get it by investing in ssri itself? I 've looked only briefly at pvg , mostly in thinking about buying ssri.
ON a little safer note than anv , Iag is getting hammered today with the rest of the sector. The move in anv may have something to do with the 13g filing by a bank for it's pension fund. I bet it's going to drift back down soon before the end of the year. Perhaps today is the start of more prolonged pain for us bottom fishers. Keep some powder dry for the 31st of December. WE will be lonely and have these boards for ourselves.

[The dead cat bouncer]

due you like PVG? I think I have met you over the phone and you worked with my brother at bt alex brown.

[brandemarcus]

It's nothing. Take a look back at the moves from November 2008 through early 2009. examples the old jaguar mining , Coeur dalene cde , hecla , nova gold ng , iag iam gold, vgz vista, slw silver wheaton .These type of rewards should be expected, given the risk.
One year and half ago usgif turned down a 1.80 cash offer from hecla. I guess hecla and or private company sunshine are hoping to punish management and shareholders by hoping it goes to bankruptcy. I think a 23 million enterprise value for atnaf seems cheap, but I would have thought anything above 50 million was cheap.
One other thing Blue claims he sold his anv. Is that good or bad news?

[Letgoofmyfannie]

Wow ANV went crazy today, of course I didn't buy it at $3.05 dang.

I have added a (tiny) little more here, there may be a rally a comin'?

[brandemarcus]

1. The negative sentiment in the sector suggests the turn -around is coming soon. I think you will find kgc, nem , hl get you safety at a cost. You will tie up more money to achieve the same gains.

2. Everybody is thinking what if gold goes to 1000 , mine x will run out of cash -need to raise funds dilution -go bankrupt etc. Nobody looks at valuations at 1800 gold much less 2400. I don't like the Lakers (Elton Brand was a clipper), but if casino offers you 300 to 1 odds that the Lakers will win the championship -that's not a bad lottery ticket.

3. The newer reactors could have survived a power loss. Unless the tidal wave is coming from the northwest subduction zone-it's not going to be as bad as Japan and there will be much more warning time. I thought Diablo was quite a bit above sea level-unlike San Onfre.

4. See how nationalization can discourage investment for quite a long time. Now where are those fools(I mean private investors) who can't wait to be in that new mortgage market. Why would they need a risk premium?

5. You are probably right -fannie and freddie are more popular than nuclear power. They both are logical solutions, the latter will take more time .