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What are the chances that the deal falls through?
imho $24 and take it to the bank is pretty darn good
the stock was trading at $14.50
$18 would be a dog shit deal and $24 is decent
It's a great deal considering takeda started at 20 then 22 then 24
Most people think that $24 is a splendid deal!
I, personally would have been happy with $18, but am even more so with the $24 sale price.
$32 is truly irrational...
and a 30% or 40% chance is HUGE for any biotech company
that is their business. not every research will make it to market. and a chance even somewhere close to 50% is better than most of all other.
If any BP company out there thought 788 was worth anywhere near $8/share there would be a higher bid out there. Which there isn't.
You're right, but I was commenting to the "one in a thousand" odds mentioned...
I think it's safe to say that, while 788 is definitely worth pursuing, the likelihood of success is way less than 50/50.
Perhaps Takeda doesn't want to risk the possibility of a failure and explaining why they paid $xxx million for something that turns out worthless. With the other 2 compounds they have only paid for success.
rum
I agree...at least 32 Bucs!!
this is the reason i dislike this deal
$32 a share and i would be fine
at $24 i rather take my chances at 788
$24 is not a great deal for shareholder. it's only a great deal for takeda
Investor maven, those points you made are of not much value in the DCF analysis for '788.
Alpha, that is what I've mentioned a couple of times to IM. Takeda says that '788 is worth zero at this point in time. Which does surprise me in that when you are buying out a company, it is better to show value to the existing shareholders. Evidently '788 is not even worth highlighting.. strange..
788 may be a promising molecule, but Takeda has stated that they did not attribute any value to it in its valuation of Ariad. That's a fact (not an "alternate fact"!)
Maybe I'm too optimistic, but first; it's a designed molecule. Second, it's proven itself in predictive target cel-based models and in animal models. Third, it's shown to be safe enough in the previous clinical testing to try out in human safety studies. FINALLY, IT'S FROM ARIAD!
Investor maven, to say that a molecule that has just left the Petrie dish and has just entered the clinic has a one in three chance of success is quite preposterous. Supporting my corollary is the clear fact that is in writing, Takeda assigned Zero value to '788 in the buyout of Ariad. I hope that it successfully, but it is way, way too early...
The comments about 1/1000 is true for new molecules, as they are discovered.
Every step of the way that indicates a clinical effect, safety, etc. reduces that risk.
788 is still in early phase, but based on ARIAD's science and ability to select excellent candidates, I'd say that it has much better odds of success; hard to estimate but possibly as good as 1:2 or 1:3, for clinical success.
Commercial success is based on additional factors, of course.
That's it! It's all over as of 12:59 pm Feb. 15, 2017.
Jess, you didn't address the most important piece of my post:
Yes, JB is a message board poster that is trusted, objective and civil in which 99% of the posters agree to be a very reliable source.
He is not a liar and he is not short.
Jess, '788 just came out of the Petri dish. I hope you realize that only 1 out of 1,000 compounds make it as an approved drug. JB is a message board poster not a clinician.
It was stated on the call that 788 was potential upside that Takeda did not pay for.
It's almost impossible to put a positive discounted value on 788 at this point.
What would be the odds of success, the quality of the drug and then consider how many hundreds of millions to get that answer at this point.
While 788 could possibly be a valuable drug you could almost consider it an liability at this point.
"no value was attributed to 788"
With its early designation for an unmet medical need, nothing was attributed to it? According to JB, 788 is a pan kit inhibitor...
http://www.siliconinvestor.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=30942140
I know I'm happy with the results and I wasn't talking about you
Something tells me we wouldn't have got $24 per share with Harvey at the helm. According to the Takeda call (thanks for posting Gregors) no value was attributed to 788. It was indeed all about Brig, which they predict will generate revenue of $1 billion per year.
Maybe others can now admit that Denner is a major reason we all have more money in our bank accounts today.
Well, I don't think you're talking about me, but just in case, I absolutely think Denner did an amzing job.
rum
Maybe others can now admit that Denner is a major reason we all have more money in our bank accounts today.
http://www.investors.com/news/technology/ariad-ignored-potential-suitor-amid-aggressive-takeda-bid-rbc/
I think the deal is done BUT You Never know..
From today's Boston Business Journal, looks like Denner skillfully and successfully managed a one-horse race...
Ariad played hardball to boost Takeda buyout price, federal filings show
http://www.bizjournals.com/boston/news/2017/01/20/ariad-played-hardball-to-boost-takeda-buyout-price.html?ana=twt
this is awesome stuff. talks of a deal as early as 2015...rejecting a $20 bid...preventing a major news leak. good stuff. thanks for posting this. Denner is a deal machine
The complete explanation of the SEC Takeda Deal
starts on page 18.
http://services.corporate-ir.net/SEC.Enhanced/SecCapsule.aspx?c=118422&fid=14762843
Wedding expenses (fees) for the bride (roughly speaking):
J.P.Morgan $33M
Goldman Sachs 8.5M
Lazard 3.5M
Yo Vid, I old MY 5 million shares at 23.9999. Buying a fleet of 777s so my colleagues and I can get to our overseas assignments faster. No more flying at the back of the plane for us!!!
What a GREAT experience Ariad was - never lost any sleep, made any bad trades, or took foolhardy, irresponsible risks that could have ruined me. Nope. None of that.
GLTA, and see you guys and gals on ARRY.
j
See SEC filings on Ariad's web site for interesting blow-by- blow account of deal negotiations. Denner ran the show and did not disappoint.
Vid- I'm sure he made a profit, if you read some of 2da's early posts on Ihub, like the ones from 2010 when he migrated away from the yahoo board, he was a completely different poster and wrote with a lighter tone. hopeful and optimistic. hopefully he will return to that perspective!
I've actually been following because of a friend! Thanks for the the support illverson
Jess, this post is the funniest post I've read in three years. Thank you..!
lol. too funny good for you. you looking at anything else?. GL
That's what I did. Sold at 23.75. Bought the 2017 Kia Candenza. Thank you Mr. Denner and Paris and Timmy.
Boy after reading all these posts, I'm setting my sell at 23.75. Enough to get me a nice new car, so to speak. good luck everyone.
Try some DD on Nvax. Much potential, low price.
Agreed. If this stock has taught anyone anything, it's take the money and run like your hair is on fire. Anything can happen.
Just sold the second half of my shares. I didn't have any Mercedes waiting at the end of February-just 2 or 3 grand, not enough to convince me to stay in and brave the uncertainty of T-Day. Yes, it is mind boggling how much some of our members had in this game but I'm not complaining. My humble stake will keep me happy for quite some time. I think I'll stay in cash for awhile and watch from the sidelines as this Trump thing plays out.
All of the biotech recommendations from board members seem a bit high.
If everyone is right about the coming correction, there should be bargains galore for those with cash.
Just sold my remaining shares. I could have held, but still feel there is some risk with the Trump nomination, holding back the price a bit. It is pennies as they say. Anyway, a bit sad to see the board degrade as many leave, but at least we had a reasonable end. I am amazed at the holdings of some. I am a smaller holder, but glad to have the capital grow and move on.... finally!. Good luck to all going forward. I have watched ADXS, but don't have too much faith there. It has been volatile, so maybe trading is the game there, for now. Array has been good lately, because of Ariad shareholders moving in? HaHa. It has been a long ride, but again, thankful for a positive outcome, even if some think the result should have been higher. (for now I am mostly in cash until I do my DD). Dog.
Jess, understood and good luck.
I was lucky enough to have bailed out of all of my shares, some of which dated back 18 years, in the pre-market on the day of the release. Average sale price was just over 23.95. I was very lucky.
One more long-shot for staying in (and I don't know if it's at all possible), but if tax laws are changed between now and the close of the sale, and rates are reduced, and for some reason the change isn't retroactive, all the people urging you to get out will sing a different tune.
rum
Rum, I respect your opinion from the beginning even though we're not on the same side of the aisle most of the times but the risk is so small that selling it now is like donating a brand new mercedes. I'm staying put for 5 more weeks to get that extra money. If anybody who sold can get that extra money from some other stocks in 5 weeks, good for them but I bet most of those who sold will not get that amount in 5 weeks.
Let's for the sake of discussion that Takeda initiate a breakup of the agreement for some reason not ariad related, they(Takeda) would have to pay the breakup fee as Jbog articulated
That would be great. I'd buy my shares back at about $12. If the next deal comes along, even better.
There's an excellent chance that this transaction will be consummated, but in the world of Trump and his tweets, you're taking an outsized risk.
rum
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http://www.ariad.com/
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=ARIA
http://phx.corporate-ir.net/phoenix.zhtml?c=118422&p=irol-news&nyo=0
The name ARIAD originates from the Greek myth of Ariadne, a daughter of Minos II, king of Crete. According to the myth, Ariadne fell in love with Theseus and gave him a spool of thread that enabled him to trace his path safely in and out of the labyrinth in which the Minotaur lived.
After slaying the Minotaur, Theseus used the spool of thread to successfully return home. From ARIAD's perspective, the labyrinth symbolizes the complex system of molecular pathways within the cell, and the spool of thread represents the signaling pathways that are leading our scientists to the discovery of breakthrough cancer therapies.
http://data.cnbc.com/quotes/ARIA/tab/8
http://data.cnbc.com/quotes/ARIA/tab/8
ARIA charts here.
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=75384935
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