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They will not do a secondary if lorc is approved. They will have plenty of cash. Eisai is on the hook for about $60 million the moment lorc is approved.
$100 in 1 year is my prediction, sounds crazy??? Why not? Look beyond the market and into the actual drug and what the potential is here. Lets say is passes in June, this means that weight loss clinics will be overwhelmed by people trying to get their hands on Lorcaserin for wieght loss. We live in a lazy obese society concerned with how we look, no one can deny that. Imagine the profit ARNA will take in for years to come. I can't wait to see their financials after approval!!! Look back when Phen-fen came out, over 2 million people were on it like flies on $#!t. I don't think many people actually realize what will happen upon the FDA approval in June. I read so many post and figures about a mid-$20 price range...yeah after the approval in June. Just wait, the PPS it's at right now might as well be pennies to where it has the potential to go. Of course this is my opinion just like every other post that is posted; it's all peeps predictions with no facts. The fact is in the pudding, Obesity in America and self-image will blow this measly PPS straight through the roof.
Just remember, it has to pass on June 27 AND the benefits of the drug HAVE TO outweigh the negatives.
Thanks Q. Bout to check the presentation out. Best of trading to ya!
$25.00 price target for ARNA after FDA approval on 6/27
Go to the 30 min mark for a discussion of ARNA cash position.
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=73277056
(For new investors, I would highly recommend watching the entire 33 min analyst presentation. In it, the analysts provide spreadsheets which supports his 5 year price projection of $52.00. Discounted back to 2012, ARNA price target is $25.00)
I am long ARNA and think their will be a secondary in the $10-$12 area. JMO
(btw, if you can find the post, an analyst had a $24 price target for ARNA. In the analyst video, he discusses ARNA cash position, quarterly cash burn, and I think the possibility of a secondary (although not positive.) Nevertheless, IMO there will be a secondary in the $10-$12 area.)
If lorcaserin is approved, ARNA has the production facilities and the sales team (via Eisai) in place to be selling the drug in the fall, well before the end of the year.
Assuming approval at the end of June, the one issue that could possibly delay marketing is how the FDA categorizes lorcaserin with respect to abuse potential. There are a few reports of hallucinations at much higher doses than what will be prescribed; so the FDA is concerned about kids popping 4-5 pills.
http://www.deadiversion.usdoj.gov/schedules/index.html
Right now the FDA has lorcaserin on Schedule IV, and - if that does not change - ARNA will have to go through a DEA licensing process that could take 4-6 months. However, if the FDA reduces lorcaserin to Schedule V, that licensing process will not be applicable.
The question as to how the FDA will finally schedule lorcaserin is up in the air. ARNA submitted a lot more info on abuse potential recently, so it is not certain - according to what ARNA said on the conference call - whether the FDA goes with Schedule IV or V.
In addition, based on what is in the FDA's breifing documents, and what ARNA said on the CC, I do not see the FDA imposing any overly burdensome post-approval regime that ARNA will have to comply with.
Your gonna see new faces come, Old faces go.
People are gonna scream to the moon
People are gonna say its gonna crash
Opinions are just that opinions, they are worth what flies are attracted to.
Reason, you can make money on this stock going up and going down. It does not mean that overall this stock is tanking or going to the moon. It is just a legal way of making money in Stocks !!
Arna will go up and go down, WOW ! that was a great call BULL, cause Every stock in the world does. ( see what I mean just Crap ). Arna is a once in a lifetime GEM that comes around very seldom, if you believe this then you have done your DD. And I am invested in ARNA for at least until 6-27 minimum, and possibly until the end of the year when several of the catalyst have come and gone.
What ever your strategy it is yours and YOU have to live with it.......glty
Most peoples opinions are based on the premise that, Arna is like every other BIO. It gets pumped up before ADCOM or PDUAF then it will fail cause whatever drug or gadget it is trying to get thru the FDA is mediocre at most. And some probably believe that Lorcaserine is mediocre, and it is. However they didn't do their homework cause Lorcaserine is a single agent that blows the other single agents out of the water. And Arna will provide a dual agent soon probably by the beginning of next year.
To summarize my point, people have opinions and those opinions are CRAP ! even mine.
But when a person presents DD that is useful either in a positive or negative way that my friend is what we are looking for !!!
They just finished responding to a CRL. That's what this adcom was about. And the FDA was very much in ARNA's corner at this adcom. Very different dynamic this year than 2010.
I don't think you know much about this company, lorcaserin, or their history with the FDA. Some of us have done a huge amount pf research. One of the more focused analysts just gave ARNA an upgrade and pegged its approval chances at 95%. I agree. June 27 this gets approved.
The bigger question mark hangs over VVUS and qnexa, not ARNA and lorcaserin.
Oh I'm holding have a good one.
Will triple from here...if you have the courage and conviction to stay...Goodnight..
Got in at $1.75 on the bulk of my shares, so I was able to bring my avg down at least, but hey a win is a win. Best part is its not over.
Looks like you missed the opportunity to buy in the 1.26 range...
Ha ya sorry just got back had it in my account and on watch but you know when things are stagnant you play other options.
Ok...I thought you said you just got in 3 months ago...my bad...guess you just got "back" in..
O I do know, I was invested in this company last adcom got burned but lowered my avg this go around. I believe in this company, especially going after a market that is in need of a real solution not some drink with a kardashian on it
I am no where near negative...as a 3 plus year investor...having more shares today than I did in 2010 after the last ADCOM..research the co...you will see it is real (especially after yesterday)...
I do love the negativity though truly makes it even better to know I'm sitting pretty.
Ok..however...not sure you do...Nevertheless....I will reserve comment..
Yes I do, hence why I invested in it 3 months ago after doing Alot of DD.
Look at the Co proposals for the upcoming shareholders meeting..
There is no meeting...that is the response (due) date....
Do you understand ARNA' s pipeline and patent authorization...I think not...
4-5...if you really believe that....then short it from here...otherwise you are full of it...prove to us you have the conviction to short it here....
Looking to take a position here. Didn't get in before adcom(had funds tied up elsewhere). I see the cash position in ARNA is pretty strong, around 88 mill. Silly question but does anyone think there will be an offering to add cash to the coffers? Would like to enter then if that is a possibilty if not i will look for a dip TIA for any insight!
Analyst Coverage
Analyst's at todays CC:
(It will be interesting to see the firms with the Biotech PH.D. represenative and if they upgrade the ARNA).
Firm Analyst
Bank of America Merrill Lynch Steve Byrne, CFA
BMO Capital Markets Jim Birchenough, M.D.
Jefferies & Company Thomas Wei
JMP Securities Jason N. Butler, Ph.D.
JPMorgan Cory Kasimov
Lazard Capital Markets William Tanner, Ph.D.
Leerink Swann and Co. Steve Y. Yoo
Needham & Company Alan Carr
Oppenheimer & Co. Bret Holley, Ph.D.
Piper Jaffray Edward A. Tenthoff
http://invest.arenapharm.com/analysts.cfm
Bret Holley, Ph.D. - Biotechnology
Bret Holley is a Managing Director and a Senior Analyst leading the Biotechnology equity research team. Bret joined the firm in September 2002, and has more than 13 years of scientific research experience in the biotechnology industry and at leading academic institutions. Prior to joining Oppenheimer, Bret worked for two years at Ingenuity Systems Inc. He received his B.S. in Genetics from the University of California at Berkeley and his Ph.D. from Stanford University. He has also held research positions at the University of California at Berkeley and the University of California at San Francisco.
William Tanner
Bill Tanner is a Managing Director and senior analyst covering the BioPharma industry. Prior to joining Lazard Capital Markets in May 2009, he worked at Leerink Swann LLC, a healthcare investment bank, for 7 years where he was a Managing Director and Head of the Biotechnology Equity Research team. Leerink Swann consistently ranked highly by Institutional Investor as Best of the Boutiques in Biotechnology and the team ranked #6 in the 2008 Greenwich Associates survey of Healthcare.
Prior to Leerink Swann, he was a Managing Director and biotechnology analyst at SG Cowen and before that, a biotechnology analyst at the former Vector Securities International. For the last 10 years, he has worked at investment banks focused predominantly or exclusively on healthcare.
Prior to starting his Wall St. career, he was a Research Associate in the Department of Pathology and Immunology in the Division of Immunology at the Washington University School of Medicine in St. Louis. He is the recipient of a National Research Service Award from the NIH.
Bill received his MBA degree from the Olin School of Business at Washington University. and Ph.D. from Texas A&M University in Physiology. He was also a postdoctoral fellow at Monsanto in the Molecular Genetics and Mammalian Biology Group.
Jason N. Butler, PhD
Vice President
Research Analyst, Biotechnology
Jason Butler is a Vice President and research analyst covering the biotechnology industry.
Prior to joining JMP, Jason served as a senior associate research analyst at Rodman & Renshaw covering biotechnology companies focused on therapies for metabolic and infectious diseases.
Jason holds a PhD in neuroscience and Bachelor's degree in biology from Imperial College London.
Listen to todays CC with this link:
http://invest.arenapharm.com/
1) Go to "Investors" tab.
2) lower right side box :Events & Presentations & click on link:
"Lorcaserin Call"
3)Fill in all requested info and then listen in. It is worth the time.
I have the calendar circled!
The nice thing is approval bring a 50 million guarantee
Well the F.D.A. approval meeting is scheduled for June 27th. I would like to see some stability and be around the $7-8 dollar PPS range going into that. IF it is approved I don't see any reason we should get into at least the $10.00 range.(sorry, but I have always been conservative on my guesses).
have you looked at the price lately ?
hahahahahahaha
Ya that the plan and if everything works with EU, looking at around same time. If approved and the way the FDA backed arna in the adcom if looks real good you'll see $24 by end of June.
I listened to some of the CC today and they said that once (if) approved, it would take DEA scheduling- 4-6 months and then they can start selling the product.
Very true competition is healthy, I just think arna has built a very good system for release of drug. Plus a arna has 1 drug to focus on, vivid has more then 1 it's easier to focus on 1 product jmo
Health Statistics > Obesity (most recent) by country:
VIEW DATA: Totals
Definition Source Printable version
Bar Graph Map Correlations
http://www.nationmaster.com/graph/hea_obe-health-obesity
Showing latest available data.
Rank Countries Amount
# 1 United States: 30.6%
Health in United States
# 2 Mexico: 24.2%
Health in Mexico
# 3 United Kingdom: 23%
Health in United Kingdom
# 4 Slovakia: 22.4%
Health in Slovakia
# 5 Greece: 21.9%
Health in Greece
# 6 Australia: 21.7%
Health in Australia
# 7 New Zealand: 20.9%
Health in New Zealand
# 8 Hungary: 18.8%
Health in Hungary
# 9 Luxembourg: 18.4%
Health in Luxembourg
# 10 Czech Republic: 14.8%
Health in Czech Republic
I just believe there is ample room for b oth companies, no to just survive, but thrive. JMO.
Let's say we live in a perfect world for a minute, arna will have this drug on the shelf Q1 PDF 2013, and late Q1 for Europe. Vvus has stated that it won't till eoy 2013 that's a large large gap for arna to work and then doctors say well arna has proven to us In a real world setting that it's efficient, so Vvus then is just done at that point. Now remember I said perfect world.
Would be. Seems like fda wants to play the extensions/crl game later. Could be lack of resources due to the recession or a change in their approach...
Guys, the $volume for today was ~$500 millions. No offence, but people on this board do not hold I believe more than let's say 1 mil if any, which is 0.5% of total volume.
It means, what we post on this board doesn't affect the price next week. It doesn't matter how much you pump it up, the other investors (the really big ones, which do not even know about this board or do not care) will make the price on Monday.
So, do not put too much passion in it, everybody has the right to an opinion, even if it is different than yours.
Gratitude,
would that not be applicable to VVUS also? Just wondering.
<On the other hand, I believe there is a huge possibility arna will also get a CRL>
big difference..vvu# did 60 mill. shares out of 90 mill. on the day of approval, arna only 75 mill out of 188 mill shares - tells me no gas left in the tank for arna. But I might be wrong, we will see....
The CCI is north of 100....ARNA will be up here for a while
"4/5 might be correct in a holding pattern low end est for sure, waiting for FDA in JUNE.. but after that, assuming approval, anyone spewing 4/5 as FV, will be laughed at until there is no oxygen left in the room to do"
I agree with you, and that's what I said. I see this one trickling down to $4-$5 over the next weeks.
If it gets approved, it might get in double digits unless they sell the news - i do not know, too early in the game.
On the other hand, I believe there is a huge possibility arna will also get a CRL. It makes me wonder, if that's not the game fda wants to play on weight loss drugs - as you know, for years they didn't approved any weight loss drugs. Suddenly, they are willing to looks closer into them, but it looks like they slam them with a CRL first, maybe to show that they really analysed the drugs test results very closely. Or maybe, they will just end up rejecting all of them and say at the end: hey, we tried, looked at all of them and the risks are too high. As I said, I do not know what's their game, so everything is just speculations.
I'M SELLING! LOL
<Cramer just mention a BUY ARNA>
IMO, Nothing is perfect, there can always be a flaw found in something. With that being said, the doctor and patient will have
two options of treatment IF both of these drugs make it two market.
What I am trying to say is there is enough people who need treatment that there is enough room for ARNA AND VVUS.
Just trying to be objective.
Yes. The devil just asked me if he could borrow my skis.
Cramer called ARNA a "buy" this evening.
http://www.thestreet.com/video/11531615/cramer-arena-is-a-lottery-ticket-that-paid-off.html
When ARNA hits $12 next week, I'll send you my "homework" to do. In fact, my tax return is on extension... YOU can do that too. LOL
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ARENA PHARMACEUTICALS, Inc. (ARNA)
http://www.arenapharm.com/
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/h?s=ARNA
http://www.secform4.com/insider-trading/1080709.htm
Arena Pharmaceuticals, Inc., a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company, focuses on the discovery, development, and commercialization of oral drugs for cardiovascular, central nervous system, inflammatory, and metabolic diseases. It is developing a pipeline of compounds targeting orphan G protein-coupled receptors using its drug discovery technologies, including constitutively activated receptor technology and Melanophore technology. The company?s drug candidate, lorcaserin hydrochloride, is in Phase 3 clinical trial program for the treatment of obesity. Its other lead development programs include APD125, a 5-HT2a serotonin receptor inverse agonist, which is in Phase 2 clinical trail for the treatment of insomnia; APD791, an anti-thrombotic drug candidate, which is in preclinical development stage for the treatment of arterial thromboembolic diseases, such as acute coronary syndrome. The company has collaboration agreements with Ortho-McNeil Pharmaceutical, Inc. for developing APD668, an orally administered drug candidate, which is under clinical development for the treatment of type 2 diabetes and other disorders; and with Merck & Co., Inc. for the development of MK-0354 for atherosclerosis and related disorders. Arena Pharmaceuticals was incorporated in 1997 and is based in San Diego, California.
http://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=arna
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