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Apple (AAPL): Technical Analysis and Price Forecast
By: Bruce Powers | January 25, 2024
• Apple stock shows early signs of hitting resistance while Microsoft, a market leader, hits a $3 trillion market valuation, but a potential short-term pullback may happen soon.
Apple Inc. (AAPL)
From a technical perspective Apple stock has led the major indices as it broke out to new highs in June of last year. The indices have only recently made new highs. A new record high for Apple was reached in July at $198.23. A retracement to test support around the 200-Day MA followed in October.
Then again it was tested twice as support this month thereby setting up a double bottom reversal pattern. The subsequent rally off the lows started with an enthusiastic upside gap. Apple stock has since rallied to a high of $196.38 as of Wednesday, where it looks like it might encounter some resistance.
Apple Earnings on February 1
Apple reports 1Q earnings on Thursday, February 1. The company just had their first weekend of pre orders for their new Apple Vision Pro headsets priced at $3,499. There are reports that pre orders have sold out. Depending on whether demand stays strong, the long-term potential is a new product revenue stream for the company.
Apple Has Reached a Possible Resistance Zone
Given Wednesday’s price action Apple stock is at risk of a pullback or consolidation. It completed a 78.6% Fibonacci retracement on Monday and made a slightly higher high on Wednesday before closing weak, near the low of the day. A pullback to at least the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at $190.24 would not be surprising as the 50-Day MA is close by at $190.53. Nevertheless, a new high target is at $204.91, That is a 127.2% Fibonacci extension of the most recent correction.
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Bull of the Day: Apple (AAPL)
By: Zacks Investment Research | January 25, 2024
Apple (AAPL) stock ended 2023 and started 2024 on a downbeat note as some analysts raced to outsmart themselves with various downgrades of the iPhone maker based on concerns about slowing growth in China and other headwinds.
Yet, Apple is up around 8% since January 5 and approaching its mid-December records heading into its Q1 FY24 earnings release on February 1. Apple’s recent wave of upward earnings revisions help AAPL earn a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy).
Apple is certainly no hidden gem, but who cares? The moral of our story today is that it pays to keep it simple and buy shares of one of the true Wall Street titans as part of a healthy, well-rounded portfolio.
Apple is far more than an iPhone maker these days. Plus, AAPL is trading above all of its key short-term and long-term moving averages.
Recent Negativity
A few notable analysts downgraded Apple stock over the last month or so. Their concerns focused on slowing iPhone sales, with a particular focus on China, among wider fears about an increasingly saturated high-end smartphone market. There are also constant worries about legal battles regarding its App Store and more.
Apple is facing mounting competition from rival Huawei Technologies in the world’s second largest economy. AAPL is also suffering setbacks in the Chinese market, as are many other companies across various industries, due to the broad-based economic slowdown in China. Geopolitical fears play their part as well.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
AAPL’s overall sales declined YoY during the trailing four quarters, with total FY23 revenue down 2.8% (its third YoY decline in the last eight years).
Despite the mounting concerns about Apple’s business in China and its economy more broadly, AAPL’s revenue in China only slipped by roughly 2.2% in fiscal 2023 (vs. Apple’s wider 2.8% drop). Apple’s total iPhone revenue fell by over 2% last year, and smartphone sales climbed by 2.8% in the fourth quarter.
The iPhone and Beyond
Apple’s branding power remains nearly unmatched and its constant cycles of new phones and devices keep people wanting more. Many consumers upgrade to new iPhones and other devices habitually, even if there isn’t a game-changing difference, and would never think of leaving the Apple universe.
Apple sold $200 billion worth of iPhones in FY23 up from $142 billion in FY19. Apple’s long-term growth case is not difficult to make in a world full of smartphone addicts, especially as its subscriptions grow within its key services unit.
Chief executive Tim Cook has focused on transforming Apple beyond an iPhone maker by continually making money from its loyal and growing customer base. Apple’s services segment climbed by 9% in FY23 to account for 22% of sales, making it by far the biggest segment outside of iPhone.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Apple said last quarter that it had an installed base of “over 2 billion active devices,” which “continues to grow at a nice pace.” AAPL’s services efforts go beyond its App Store and include Netflix and Spotify competitors, a subscription news offering, Apple Wallet, a video game platform, digital workout classes, and more.
AAPL finished its most recent period with “over 1 billion paid subscriptions across” its services, marking nearly double the number it had three years ago. On top of that, Apple has brought more of its chips in-house and it is quietly spending heavily on rolling out AI features in its smartphones and other devices.
Near-Term Outlook
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSM) reported upbeat results on January 18 and provided strong guidance that signals a return to growth for the smartphone market. Apple’s revenue is projected to climb by 3% in FY24 and jump 6% higher in FY25 to reach $418.36 billion vs. $383.29 billion in FY23.
Meanwhile, its adjusted earnings are projected to grow by 8% in FY24 and another 9% higher next year to come in at $7.19 per share. This would come on top of marginal EPS growth last year.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Apple has topped earnings every period over the last five years outside of a small miss in the first quarter of FY23.
Better yet, Apple’s earnings revisions have trended higher over the last month for FY24 and FY25, with its most accurate/most recent estimates solidly above the already-improved consensus. The bottom line positivity helps it capture a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) right now.
Performance, Technical Levels & Valuation
AAPL stock is up around 8% since January 5 and it trades 6% below its average Zacks price target and around 2% under its mid-December records. The rebound took Apple back above its 50-day and 21-day moving averages and from oversold RSI levels to above neutral.
Apple shares have climbed by roughly 1,000% in the last 10 years to top Microsoft (MSFT) and blow away the Zacks Tech sector’s 275% run. Apple is only up 36% in the past three years vs. Microsoft’s 75%.
AAPL has also underperformed Tech during the last 12 months, which means it might be less overheated than some might assume.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Apple is currently trading above its very long-term 21-month moving average and it appears far from overheated by historical RSI standards.
Valuation-wise, Apple trades at a roughly 20% discount to its five-year highs at 28.8X forward 12-month earnings and not too far above its median or Tech.
Bottom Line
Apple returned $25 billion to shareholders last quarter via buybacks and dividends. The firm is also still investing heavily in future growth endeavors such as artificial intelligence, EVs, and beyond.
Some investors might decide they would rather attempt to find the next Apple. But sometimes betting on the favorite works better than going with the underdog.
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Apple $AAPL is spending a lot of money on Research and Development
By: Savvy Trader | January 22, 2024
• Apple $AAPL is spending a lot of money on Research and Development
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CHINA FINANCIAL COLLAPSE UNDERWAY!!!!!!
OH MY!!!!!!!!!!
What were the clues for an $AAPL bounce this week?
By: TrendSpider | January 20, 2024
• What were the clues for an $AAPL bounce this week?
200 day SMA support
Volume shelf support
Higher-low double bottom
$BAC analyst upgrade was the icing on the cake.
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Apple $AAPL $8.19 Million Calls with some ER flow
By: FLOWrensics | January 19, 2024
• $AAPL with some ER flow.
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$AAPL $1.1 Million ATM Put The expiration is short-term on this order, so the whale is expecting downside soon Vol > OI so it is being bought to open
By: Cheddar Flow | January 19, 2024
• $AAPL $1.1M ATM Put
The expiration is short-term on this order, so the whale is expecting downside soon
Vol > OI so it is being bought to open
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HAVE YOU EVER HEARD OF ARBITRAGE ?!? $AAPL LMAO
(okay, I'll lower my voice if you stop yelling) ...It's all RELATIVE.
P.S.: It appears the market disagrees w/your P/E interpretation!
$AAPL, $MSFT, & $META had the most bullish flow today
By: Cheddar Flow | January 18, 2024
• $AAPL, $MSFT, & $META had the most bullish flow today
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Analyst: Apple (AAPL) Stock Boasts 20% Upside
By: Schaeffer's Investment Research | January 18, 2024
• BofA Global Research upgraded APPL to "buy"
• The company also announced an update concerning its Apple Watch
Apple Inc (NASDAQ:AAPL), the former most valuable publicly traded company in the world, is getting a boost today thanks to a bull note from BofA Global Research. The analyst upgraded the Big Tech stock to "buy" from "neutral" and raised its price target to $225 from $208, implying a 20% upside for AAPL on expectations of rebounding iPhone sales.
This bull note follows yesterday's news that Apple has once again been banned from selling current version of its Apple Watch that are equipped with blood oxygen sensors, after medical device maker Masimo filed a patent-infringement case. Early reports indicate that Apple plans to disable the feature.
Last seen 2.3% higher at $186.81, Apple stock is attempting to overcome a 5.1% year-to-date deficit. After hitting an all-time high of $199.62 on Dec. 14, the security lost more than 7% over the following month to fall below recent support at its 40-day moving average. However, AAPL still boasts a more than 35% year-over-year gain.
Options traders are betting on more moves higher, too. Already today, more than 183,000 bullish bets have crossed the tape, which is triple the intraday average amount. Most popular is the January 187.50 call, followed by the 190 call in the same monthly series.
Circling back to analyst sentiment, covering brokerages are overwhelmingly bullish, but there remains room for a shift in sentiment. This is per the 10 of 28 analysts that still rate Apple stock a tepid "hold" or worse.
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*Bank of America upgrades $AAPL, expects AI and Vision Pro to drive upside - Analysts also hiked the price target by $17 to $225 per share, reflecting higher iPhone and Services estimates.
Apple $AAPL with another important test of its 200D moving average. Will it hold as support?
By: Barchart | January 17, 2024
• Apple $AAPL with another important test of its 200D moving average. Will it hold as support?
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Apple Place your bets - Breakdown or Gap Fill?
By: TrendSpider | January 12, 2024
• Place your bets - Breakdown or Gap Fill?
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Apple 200 day SMA + Volume shelf support = The perfect recipe for a bounce!
By: TrendSpider | January 8, 2024
• 200 day SMA + Volume shelf support = The perfect recipe for a bounce!
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Ha! $AAPL Bitcoin Apes 
Apple’s $85bn-a-year services business faces legal reckoning
By: Financial Times | January 2, 2024
• Landmark EU regulation and crucial US court cases due in 2024 will test the tech company
Apple faces a legal reckoning in 2024, with a series of regulatory decisions by US and EU authorities over the coming months set to determine the future of its $85bn-a-year services business.
The biggest hit to the iPhone maker could come from a US antitrust trial against Google, where it emerged that the fellow tech giant had paid more than $26bn in 2021 to make its search engine the default on Apple devices and other smartphones and browsers.
Should Google lose the case, it could be forced to stop making regular payments to Apple, which Eric Seufert, an independent analyst, estimates as being worth a quarter of annual revenues earned by Apple’s services arm.
Meanwhile, Apple and other tech giants face increasing scrutiny from the Biden administration over concerns about the dominance of its App Store, which it is already being forced to change in the EU due to legislation designed to rein in the power of Big Tech.
Together, the legal and regulatory actions spanning two of Apple’s biggest markets represent the biggest threat to the company’s business in years.
Its services arm, which includes income from the App Store, video streaming arm and Apple Music, has steadily increased as a proportion of the company’s total revenues, which is still dominated by sales of devices such as the iPhone.
The Google trial, seen as the most significant antitrust monopoly trial in more than 25 years in Washington, will hear closing arguments in May. Should Google lose, it will almost certainly file an appeal, but such a decision would raise questions about how the two tech giants work with one another into the future.
“I think the judge was intrigued with that issue during the trial,” said Bill Kovacic, a former Federal Trade Commission chair and competition professor of law and policy at George Washington University Law School. “The question in the background was: ‘if Apple is going to have an auction for that prime placement, what should Google have done?’”
The White House is at the same time intensifying its efforts to tackle what it regards as excessive corporate power. Jonathan Kanter, head of the Department of Justice’s antitrust unit since November 2021, has made no secret of his ambition to bring cases against the biggest US companies.
His department has been probing Apple’s App Store policies for years and is now, according to Kanter, “firing on all cylinders”. The window for him to bring a case is closing, however, as the US presidential election and a potential change in administration loom. The DoJ did not respond to a request for comment on the Apple probe.
Regulators, businesses and enforcers have for years been seeking to pry apart Apple’s iOS ecosystem, a move the tech giant has always insisted would undermine the mobile operating software’s security.
Apple, however, acknowledged recently in a filing to the Securities and Exchange Commission that it would have to make changes to its App Store in the EU, due to the bloc’s new Digital Markets Act, which has a March deadline for legal compliance from tech companies.
In the EU, Apple is preparing to allow “sideloading”, which enables iPhone users to bypass its store and download apps from elsewhere.
This will breach, for the first time, the walled-off ecosystem that the company has protected since Steve Jobs unveiled the iPhone in 2007. Apple has dragged its feet on this issue, since it maintains the practice will create security risks to its system.
Sideloading could have an impact on the App Store, where Apple charges developers as much as a 30 per cent fee on digital purchases. Games account for more than half of that revenue. Google’s Play Store, which charges a similar fee, is also in the spotlight after it lost a landmark trial against Epic Games in California in December.
Apple draws between $6bn and $7bn in commission fees from the App Store globally each quarter, according to Sensor Tower estimates.
Competitors are pushing to earn some of that share and launch rival app stores and payment methods on Apple devices. Microsoft is talking to partners about launching its own mobile store.
Fortnite maker Epic Games, a longtime Apple foe, wants its store on iOS devices and points to its lower 12 per cent fee as an incentive for consumers to switch to its platform.
While Epic broadly lost a lower court judgment into its claims against Apple in 2021, a California judge ordered Apple to put an end to App Store rules that prevent developers from steering customers outside of the store to make purchases. The appeals court upheld that injunction earlier this year. The US Supreme Court will review the case next year.
For investors, gauging the ultimate risk from the raft of regulatory and legal actions across the world is difficult. “I think there’s just a belief that there’s all this noise in the background, and ‘don’t worry about it’,” said Gene Munster, managing partner at Deepwater Asset Management.
Investors, he said, had been “lulled to sleep” by Apple’s initial wins against Epic in particular. “But I think investors should take it seriously.”
Apple declined to comment.
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Apple $AAPL Watching the volume shelf and 200 day SMA sitting at ~$180
By: TrendSpider | January 2, 2024
• $AAPL Watching the volume shelf and 200 day SMA sitting at ~$180.
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Apple $AAPL suffers largest drop since September 6
By: Barchart | January 2, 2024
• Apple $AAPL suffers largest drop since September 6.
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Agree. Great points. In spite of prior downgrades, AAPL kept chugging along to new highs recently and it will do so again.
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