Antiaging Quantum Living Inc (AAQL)

[Basin Street Blues]

ACHN: Achillion Pharmaceuticals Has Serious Breakout Potential
The Hepatitis-C drugmaker is heading to new trials and is looking for a big second half in 2015
Mar 9, 2015, 10:57 am EDT | By Richard Saintvilus, InvestorPlace Contributor
The race to cure Hepatitis-C, a contagious liver disease with severe lifelong implications, has become a crowded market. But it’s tough to see how biotech company Achillion Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (NASDAQ:ACHN) will lose out.

Though ACHN stock has been volatile over the past couple of years, Achillion has several products in clinical trials, making ACHN tough to bet against. And despite its fourth-quarter earnings miss last week, which sent shares down more than 7%, there’s no better time to buy ACHN stock than now. Take a look at the chart.

ACHN Stock ACHN: Achillion Pharmaceuticals Has Serious Breakout Potential

Everyone knows investing in biotechs is risky, and you can see just how crazy it can get by looking at the spread between Achillion’s 52-week highs and lows. However, ACHN’s price has been much more normalized in the past six months, trading in a (relatively) smaller range of $10 to $15.

5 Stocks to Buy for March
Not that you shouldn’t expect any more volatility, but you can feel better about using Thursday’s 7% pullback in ACHN stock as a buying opportunity.

Especially once you understand where Achillion Pharmaceuticals is going.

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Achillion Pharmaceuticals (ACHN): ACH-3422 & ACH-3102
Achillion’s advances in developing treatments for Hepatitis C has been the major catalyst of is recent surge from its 52-week low. And despite competitive-pricing pressures from the likes of AbbVie Inc (NYSE:ABBV) and Gilead Sciences, Inc (NASDAQ:GILD), Achillion Pharmaceuticals’ breakthrough proprietary Hepatitis-C drugs — clinically named ACH-3422 and ACH-3102 — continue to gain momentum, suggesting that its stock gains has just begun.

In December, Achillion Pharmaceuticals announced positive results from two studies involving both drugs during six-week trials.

“We believe that achievement of 100 percent SVR4 in six weeks in the ACH-3102 proxy study, combined with the high potency and safety demonstrated by ACH-3422, highlights the ability of our exceptional, fully owned portfolio to excel in the HCV market,” CEO Milind Deshpande said in a statement.

Achillion Pharmaceuticals announced Thursday that it will begin clinical trials with both drugs for Hepatitis-C patients some time in the first half of 2015. These trials will last between six weeks to three months, with results expected in the second half of the year. This is an important development not only for the company but also consumers, especially since roughly 17,000 U.S. residents become affected with Hepatitis-C each year.

According to the Centers for Disease Control, an estimated 3.2 million people in the U.S. suffer from chronic Hepatitis-C, making it a potentially lucrative market for the drug company that can emerge as a leader. And the ongoing progress Achillion Pharmaceuticals continues to make suggests it will positioned to capitalize on that industry, boding well for ACHN stock.

ACHN stock certainly is providing something of a discount thanks to its 10% decline so far in 2015. Shares have a consensus “buy” rating and an average 12-month price target of $20.50, suggesting 85% gains from current levels.

I think it’s likelier we’ll see a more muted response to any positive results from Achillion’s trials — say, a move to $16 or $17. But even then, you’d be looking at roughly 50% gains for ACHN stock, plus the likelihood that Achillion would end up on the M&A radar for one of the major drug companies.

[Basin Street Blues]

Achillion Pharmaceuticals Inc forms bullish "Symmetrical
Continuation Triangle" chart pattern
Recognia has detected a "Symmetrical Continuation Triangle (Bullish)" chart pattern formed on Achillion Pharmaceuticals Inc (ACHN on FSE). This bullish signal indicates that the price may rise from the close of 10.45 to the range of 14.20 - 15.10. The pattern formed over 27 days which is roughly the period of time in which the target price range may be achieved.
Achillion Pharmaceuticals Inc has a current support price of 9.73 and a resistance level of 11.08.

A Symmetrical Continuation Triangle (Bullish) is considered a bullish signal, indicating that the current uptrend may continue. The formation occurs because prices are reaching both lower highs and higher lows. The technical event occurs when the price breaks out of the triangle formation to close above the upper (descending) trendline, thereby confirming the pattern.

This bullish pattern can be seen on the following chart and was detected by Recognia's proprietary pattern recognition technology.

Click here for chart with pattern

[Basin Street Blues]

Check this out , last 60 or 70 days of ACHN ( I did this Sunday ) vs the last 90 days or so of IDIX ....

Am i seeing things ...

(sorry image seems rather big so scroll right )

[mapman1010]

Thanks Mav,
Like i told BSB i am happy with my entry point here. i am a risk taker as you have to be in biotech and i am way overweight in NWBO after buying stock and exercising options the last couple of months. i will keep a close eye on ACHN and hopefully will be nimble enough if something negative happens..

[mapman1010]

Hi BSB, yea i was fortunate in my price point. after i got my alert i did a quick perusal of my DD and saw nothing had changed. they never tested the offering price of 10.25 and $10 looked to be super strong support.
Thanks Good Luck to you as well

[Basin Street Blues]

Hi Maverick,

Thanks for your thoughts , I guess your skepticism was mirrored by the Barclay analyst last week that based his note on ' late to the party ' as well.

As it stands right now looking at BBG the ANR function shows :

ACHN US Equity Analyst Recommendations
Achillion Pharmaceuticals Inc As of 03/06/15
Consensus Rating 4.08
Buys 66.7% 8
Holds 25.0% 3
Sells 8.3% 1
12M Tgt Px 11/13 18.82
Last Price 10.99
Return Potential 71.2%
LTM Return 220.4%
Show In-House Data

Wells Fargo Securities Brian C Abrahams outperform 03/06/15 44.80% 5
JMP Securities Liisa A Bayko market outperform 24.00 03/06/15 3
Robert W. Baird & Co Brian P Skorney neutral 16.00 03/05/15 62.39% 4 1
Cowen and Company Dr Philip Nadeau outperform 03/05/15 220.41% 1 4
Barclays Dr Geoffrey Meacham underweight 8.00 03/05/1

Also there was the Deutsche reiterate of $25 last week as well .

Looking at the consensus rating of 4.08 , that's out of 5
and as far as BBG are concerned that compares with :

AbVie : 4.2
Pfizer : 4.1
J&J : 3.9
Merck : 3.9
BMY : 3.8

All said , I think there`s enough for me to remain long , I like the way their management operate also , in strict contract with some others .. no names mentioned ! ha

[maverick_1]

Strategic Assessment of why BMY'(or other Big Pharma) need to participate in a crowded, price competitive Hep C mkt is IMHO the key to it being a winner as ACHN is late to party and no collaboration.

HEP C Area WAS ripe.
ACHN has appreciated 5X from 52 wk lows
GILD and Abbie dominate and pricing pressures will continue
Does BMY (or other Big Pharma) want or need to further address HEP C and what are the catalysts that make strategic investment sense to BMY etc.

So altho ACHN's recent data is impressive but limited and I AM A NOVICE in ACHN that is why I have avoided ACHN in last two months despite institutional owners (not a significant holding of any instl IMHO). Looks controversial.

My preference: Better odds with investment success when either or both are at play:

EARLY in Industry Acceptance and/or Institutional acceptance

versus the current:

Industry sector has mushroomed and finds itself subject to pricing pressures induced by insurers and dealing with two entrenched key players.

ACHN may be a good trade for nimble ones, but better investment IF the above is laid out.

This post prompted by involvement of a few notable NWBO brethen.

[Basin Street Blues]

Hi Mapman ,
Thats a dream level , im long much highter , i seem to make a habbit of
buying and then watching it drop !

Having said that i wasnt complainning when we were frlying toward $17 in late January ,

Thursyday was a bare raid , retail sold on stops that had been targeted by funds , who then loaded up
in size ...

For me this will move pretty soon , i hope to be able to realise some serious numbers prior to ASCO
and load up NW ...


Good Luck

[mapman1010]

AHH.. Pyrr maybe thats why i had it on my watch list to begin with :)

[Rkmatters]

I don't think Maverick agrees with this pick. This is just a small pick for me, but Pyrr convinced me the results on the Phases look promising. A buyout candidate as it has the best nuc. He thinks it could happen sooner. And I believe much later. But, share should be higher as the year progresses based on the data alone.

[mapman1010]

Hi RK and BSB, well i bought yesterday when price was 10.20. had on my watch list with DD and decided to visit this board today and found you two were already here. i suspect Mav is in as well.
GLTA

[Basin Street Blues]

Bloomberg Professional This Morning


BLOOMBERG PROFESSIONAL
ACHN US Equity ?? Actions ?? Alert Analyst Recommendations
Achillion Pharmaceuticals Inc As of 03/06/15
Consensus Rating 4.08 This is out of 5
and compares with :
AbVie : 4.2
Pfizer : 4.1
J&J : 3.9
Merck : 3.9
BMY : 3.8

ACHN
Buys 66.7% 8
Holds 25.0% 3
Sells 8.3% 1
12M Tgt Px 11/13 18.82
Last Price 10.99
Return Potential 71.2%
LTM Return 220.4%
Show In-House Data

Wells Fargo Securities Brian C Abrahams outperform 03/06/15 44.80% 5
JMP Securities Liisa A Bayko market outperform 24.00 03/06/15 3
Robert W. Baird & Co Brian P Skorney neutral 16.00 03/05/15 62.39% 4 1
Cowen and Company Dr Philip Nadeau outperform 03/05/15 220.41% 1 4
Barclays Dr Geoffrey Meacham underweight 8.00 03/05/15

And dont forget Deutsche yesterday also said $25 ..

[Justfactsmam]

and that is good...but sold before earnings...bought back in afternoon

[girlfriend]

This was a gift today...allowed me to get back in

[KingDMC]

Hey, if my Aunt had a penis she'd be my uncle. Haha no, I'm just saying it bounced from around that area. Could have just as easily been a sell the news event on a solid report who knows. Either way, good to see it bounced from down there. Floor is in at $10.25 going forward imo.

[Justfactsmam]

...product of miss... not "fill the gap" mantra ....

...loss for year and quarter greater than expected and recorded No Earnings...cause for selloff...if the miss were a beat, never see the selloff...then no opportunity to sell off...simple as that...

[KingDMC]

$10.12 LOD ($10.25 offering)

[KingDMC]

I told you they always at least touch and test that offering price...

[Basin Street Blues]

So far today we have traded 10m +.

So we get a Barclays bash article from a writer that put out a buy on Gilead
the same day.

We get co ordinated short selling even from the post market the night before

We miss earning s average estimate by 3 cents !!

And the manipulators go hell for levather to hit the short stops below $11.

Whos selling : RETAIL ON STOPS

Whos buying : Hedge Funds , and market professionals .

If you still feel crap , take a look at this :

IDIX

22nd Jan 2014 $9.32
4th April 14 $4.81
Thats a 48% drop in under 90 days !!

ACHN 22nd Dec 2014 $16,87
Todays low is a 40pct drop in the exact same time frame

29 days after Idenix traded $4.81 they were bought for $3.85bn .

Coincidence ..... No I think not ...

[rivervalley]

I'll watch to see if the 200 day MA holds. Made a nice move up so far after hitting bottom. Hope you do well on the trade.

[girlfriend]

The story remains the same…actually some positive comments from earnings but the traders will trade on a not so good earnings report…..even if a biotech and not the story or potential.

Will add again below $9 do not have a high percentage invested here….nor in any bio/pharma

Good luck to you!

[rivervalley]

I'm still staying patient but keeping it on watch. No doubt some are going to hold through this so there may be a bounce once it settles in. Good luck!

[girlfriend]

Added some at 10.32 just above the recent placement at 10.25

[rivervalley]

wouldn't surprise me a bit. Glad I waited on this one.

[KingDMC]

Maybe it'll get down to test that offering price after all...

[rivervalley]

still keeping an eye on this one. Curious to see where pps lands today. Not much vol so far in pre which is surprising.

[KingDMC]

Achillion Reports 2014 Fourth Quarter and Year-End Financial Results

Source: GlobeNewswire Inc.

Achillion Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (Nasdaq:ACHN) today reported financial results for the three and twelve months ended December 31, 2014.
For the three months ended December 31, 2014, the Company reported a net loss of $21.6 million, compared to a net loss of $13.4 million in the three months ended December 31, 2013. For the full year ended December 31, 2014, the Company's net loss was $69.0 million, or $0.70 per share, compared to a net loss of $58.9 million for the year ended December 31, 2013, or $0.63 per share. Cash, cash equivalents, marketable securities, and interest and subscriptions receivable at December 31, 2014 were $159.2 million.

[rivervalley]

trading 11.50's now in pre-mkt on low vol.

[KingDMC]

Another bio down big this am

[rivervalley]

still watching this one but haven't picked up any shares. Seems like many that were talking it up here a few weeks ago are long gone.

[Basin Street Blues]

Guess what ? The analyst that put a sell on ACHN yesterday ...
also put a buy on Gilead !!

Geoffrey Meacham Barclays Equites
GILD US Equity - overweight - 03/04/15

Barclay's do not seem to have learned anything from their billions in fines and constant bad press .

Pathetic ...

[Mma20]

What's happening ah

[KingDMC]

Great company, but still believe this will test offering price. The sooner the better so we can get back to that $16 level..

[Rkmatters]

Hi BSB,
From a strategic standpoint, I would think all interested parties would have been waiting to see the interim results of Ph II before making their move. Given those results came out on 2/9, confirming what was to be suspected (6 weeks, 100% cure), I wouldn't be shocked if a quick buyout move occurs. If not, results continue to be super bullish, and bodes well for ACHN, with or without a buyout. :) RK

[Basin Street Blues]

An Ever Present Potential for Buyout SA Article

As I think you can see now the above is absolutely unpalatable for MRK and GILD, and quite undesirable for ABBV. ACHN really is the wrench in the works. There's only one way to solve this: acquisition--if you can't beat em, buy em!

There are many examples of companies raising money before buyout, sometimes in great excess. AVNR, IDIX, SNAP, etc., and SNAP literally right before. The only way to know a buyout won't occur is when it doesn't. In other words, there's no way to know. But what I do know is that ACHN is incredibly valuable as is (I won't even go into Factor D and their antimicrobial in development), and presents perhaps the greatest hurdle for ABBV, MRK and even GILD to overcome. They simply cannot allow them to come to market, and so it is my opinion they will be acquired first. When that happens is anyone's guess. But even if ACHN eschews a buyout, data out in 2H 2015 would likely procure a $24+ share price by itself. Maybe higher--100% SVR4 from 6-week 3422+3102 regimen would completely shake the market.

Recall also that Idenix was acquired in June 2014 and only about 6 months later ACHN reported their POC nuc data, together with 100% 6-week SVR4 with 3102 + Sovaldi. IDIX was bought out for $3.85B on what I and I'm sure at least a few experts in the industry would consider inferior data to ACH-3422 (not to mention IDIX's other DAAs, some of which were sidelined for safety issues). Add to this the high efficacy of 3102 and the potentially blockbuster Factor D and antimicrobials and it's not hard to see a $4B buyout would be too low for ACHN, even considering that the recognized potential present in the Hep C market has constricted somewhat.

All told, in my view ACHN remains a very strong buy.

[Basin Street Blues]

Must Read SA article ....Just out ..

http://seekingalpha.com/article/2915676-achillion-pharmaceuticals-high-marketing-potential-with-long-term-prospects?auth_param=ilnm:1aduqul:bfe6ab3d2cf3b0025134698677d0642f&uprof=45

[Basin Street Blues]

Bloomberg Professional 14th February 2015

Disregard all negative posts , this is all you need to know...

Consensus USD
Consensus Rating 4.36 (0 = Sell , 5 Buy )
Buys 72.7% 8
Holds 27.3% 3
Sells 0.0% 0
12M Tgt Px 10/12 19.9
Last Price 10.89
Return Potential 82.7%
1 Year Return 205.0%

Firm Recommendation Tgt Px Date
JMP Securities market outperform $24 02/10/15
Wells Fargo Securities outperform 02/09/15
Cowen and Company outperform 02/09/15
Maxim Group LLC buy $22 02/09/15
Piper Jaffray overweight $22.5 02/09/15
Credit Suisse neutral $12 01/12/15
Edison Investment Research $18.5 01/12/15
UBS buy $19 01/06/15
Robert W. Baird & Co neutral $16 12/23/14
William Blair & Co market perform $15 12/23/14
Leerink Partners LLC outperform $25 12/23/14

[girlfriend]

Nice call……back in ACHN this morn at 10.70. Sold half at the close.

[Justfactsmam]

...as stated... $11.085 market is fine with secondary

[rivervalley]

absolutely, but since I'm currently out of same day buy/sell trades until next week I will proceed accordingly. I don't like to buy and not be able to sell right away if need be. GLTY and all.

[Justfactsmam]

might be missing out .... waiting...

[Justfactsmam]

If opportunity presents itself .... will be right there too.

[KingDMC]

Maybe not today, but it always does. I will be waiting. Mark this post.

Note: I'm a believer in this company and stock fyi, but I know how trading works when it comes to these offerings.

[rivervalley]

watching this one again and may pick up some shares in the next week.

[Justfactsmam]

not going to touch 10.25...would have been there already if it were that simple....

this $ gives enormous leverage to company on negotiating in a takeover...market knows it...

would have expected them to hold out higher...but it is, what it is...and now they can move on in a position of strength...

...could even see a close above $11 today...

[KingDMC]

Bid at $10 2,500 shares.

[KingDMC]

Looks like $10.00 is the floor. Definitely gonna touch that some time this morning and headed there now. That's where I'll be waiting for a re-entry.

[DewDiligence]

ACHN sells 13.8M* shares at $10.25—an 11% discount to Tuesday’s close (when the offering was announced):

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/achillion-pharmaceuticals-announces-pricing-public-045900088.html

*Assuming exercise of underwriter’s option.

[starkd748]

10.25 share public offering I'll load on da dip...

[DewDiligence]

Look it up on the SEC website. (I'm not going to do your grunt work.)