Amyris Inc (fka AMRSQ)

[TheSerb]

NEWS DAY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

NICE!

[Spider Web]

SELLING THEMSELVES OUT

-----> PIECE BY PIECE <-----

AND NOT IN A GOOD WAY

[TheSerb]

? These are not facts.....

[SubstitutedPinions]

Strong day

[Tdash]

quiet 15%%

[Spider Web]

GIVING IT ALL AWAY


This Is Very Bad News
You Just Haven't Figured It Out Yet

They Are Forced To Sell Their Main
Manufacturing Plant, Along With Even
More Proprietary Asset Information.

And Still, It Will Barely Put A Dent In
All Of Their Huge Long-Term Debt.

This Is All They Did Last Year.
With Every Collaboration, They
Just Gave More And More Of The
Company's Assets Away.


The Are Whittling Themselves

---> DOWN TO NOTHING <---

[TheSerb]

DID YOU SEE THE NEWS?????????????

Please Read Up.

[Tdash]

looking good quiet mover !

[Spider Web]

UPDATE CORRECTION

This Is A Correction
On My Fourth Quarter
And FY-2017 Estimates
Regarding My Last Post

================================

QUARTERLY REVENUES
STAYED ABOUT THE SAME

Q1-2016 = $08.8M
Q2-2016 = $09.6M
Q3-2016 = $26.6M
Q4-2016 = $22.2M
FY-2016 = $67.2M

Q1-2017 = $12.9M
Q2-2017 = $25.7M
Q3-2017 = $24.2M
Q4-2017 = $24.4M <--- Estimate
FY-2017 = $87.2M <--- Estimate

================================

They Touted All Last Year About How
FY-2017 Revs Were Going To Be $200M ,
And How They Were Always "Not Diluting" .

Then At The Beginning Of This Year ,
They Changed That Outlook To $120M .
While Still Playing Down "The Dilution" .

But After All That, They Will Be Lucky To
Even Break $90M. But Still: "More Dilution" .

================================

Looking At The "Pre-Split" Equivalent
Of Shrs That Have Been Diluted . . .

They Diluted About 270,000,000 Shrs
During FY-2011 On Through FY-2016 .

And So Far In FY-2017 They Have
Diluted About 364,000,000 Shrs .

That Is About 1.4 Times As Much Dilution
In The Past Nine Months, Than They Have
Done In The Entire Previous Five Years !!!

And It's Not Going To Stop !

================================

So The Battle Between SG&A, Revenue,
Gross Margin, Debt, And Dilution Will All Work
Against Each Other For Some Time To Come .

The Reason For Statements
That Are Protected Under The
"Forward-Looking Statements Clause"
Are Clearly For Dilution Purposes Only .

================================

TO PUT IT ALL IN PERSPECTIVE
* The Number One Biggest Job And *
* Main Primary Concern Of Any CEO *
IS PUTTING LIPSTICK ON A PIG

================================

[finesand]

OS 21M 6/6 + 42M S-3 + 26M S-3 = 89M OS

Edit: That is the 'shelfed' maximum dilution
due to T-1 & T-2 offering incl Anti-Dilutive Warrants.

As of no w/ Cash-Warrants - if executed, it should be around 69M

[Spider Web]

PUT YOU TOGETHER


TO PUT IT ALL IN PERSPECTIVE
* The Number One Biggest Job And *
* Main Primary Concern Of Any CEO *
IS PUTTING LIPSTICK ON A PIG


================================

FISCAL YEAR REVENUES

AMRS First Put You Together By Telling You
That FY-2017 Revs Were Going To Be $200M

Then AMRS Told You "Too Late" That FY-2017
Revs Were Being Adjusted To Only $120M !!!

That Should Mean That The First 9 Months
Should Be Running Pretty Near To $90M
As Opposed To The Original 9 Mo $150M

But Q1+Q2+Q3 Only Turned Out To Be $67M
( Which Equals The Total FY-2016 Revenues )

So My Estimates Are Now Telling Me
FY-2017 Revs Will Be Under $90M !!!

So Even Though FY-2017 Will Beat FY-2016
Revs By About $20M, That Is Still A Far Cry
From Anything They Ever Projected.

================================

QUARTERLY REVENUES
STAYED ABOUT THE SAME

Q1-2016 = $08.8M
Q2-2016 = $09.6M
Q3-2016 = $26.5M
Q4-2016 = $22.2M
FY-2016 = $67.2M

Q1-2017 = $12.9M
Q2-2017 = $25.7M
Q3-2017 = $24.2M
Q4-2017 = $20.0M <--- Est
FY-2017 = $87.0M <--- Est

================================

NET INCOME IS ALWAYS A LOSS

Q1-2016 = Net Loss = $15.3M
Q2-2016 = Net Loss = $13.6M
Q3-2016 = Net Loss = $19.7M
Q4-2016 = Net Loss = $48.8M

Q1-2017 = Net Loss = $37.4M
Q2-2017 = Net Loss = $10.3M
Q3-2017 = Net Loss = $42.9M
Q4-2017 = TBA

================================

TOTAL COSTS & OPERATING EXPENSES
SEEMS TO ALWAYS BE CLIMBING A LOT

Q1-2016 = $35.350M
Q2-2016 = $32.475M
Q3-2016 = $38.572M
Q4-2016 = $56.719M

Q1-2017 = $40.324M
Q2-2017 = $47.477M
Q3-2017 = $48.276M
Q4-2017 = TBA

================================

GROSS MARGINS (GAAP)
SHOW NO CONSISTENCY

Q1-2016 = (301.2%)
Q2-2016 = 17.8%
Q3-2016 = 43.9%
Q4-2016 = (2.3%)

Q1-2017 = 1.6%
Q2-2017 = 32.7%
Q3-2017 = 27.1%
Q4-2017 = TBA

================================

EPS IS STILL STRUGGLING

Quarter = Pre-Split ----> Post-Split
Q1-2016 = ($0.074) ---> ($1.110)
Q2-2016 = ($0.061) ---> ($0.912)
Q3-2016 = ($0.079) ---> ($1.186)
Q4-2016 = ($0.178) ---> ($2.675)

Q1-2017 = ($0.129) ---> ($1.939)
Q2-2017 = ($0.030) ---> ($0.458)
Q3-2017 = ($0.076) ---> ($1.141)
Q4-2017 = TBA

================================

BASIC WEIGHTED AVG
OUTSTANDING SHRS
ALWAYS INCREASING

Quarter = Pre-Split ----> Post-Split
Q1-2016 = 207.20M ---> 13.81M
Q2-2016 = 223.11M ---> 14.87M
Q3-2016 = 249.19M ---> 16.61M
Q4-2016 = 273.41M ---> 18.23M

Q1-2017 = 289.08M ---> 19.27M
Q2-2017 = 336.09M ---> 22.41M
Q3-2017 = 572.95M ---> 37.53M
Q4-2017 = TBA

================================

BIG DILUTION

I Know ... They Say They Never Dilute ... LOL
But We All Know About The Heavy Dilution
They Did In 2016, When They Said: "None"

So Now Check Out The Total Dilution
They Did From Jan 2011 To Dec 2016 :
273M Pre-Split - OR - 18M Post Split Shs

BUT DO YOU KNOW WHAT ? . . .

The Total Dilution That They Have
Done So Far In Just 2017 Is :
364M Pre-Split - OR - 24M Post Split Shs

THAT IS 133% OF THE TOTAL HISTORICAL
DILUTION IN JUST THIS PAST 9 MONTHS
THAN THEY DID IN THE 5 YEARS PRIOR !!!

And Yet They Tell You There Is No Dilution !
What You Have To Realize Is How And When
They Tell You Certain Things, Which Legally
Covers-Up The Truth Of What Is Happening.

================================

2017 OUTSTANDING SHR RUN

Pre-Split <---- Date ----> Post-Split
273M <--- Jan 1, 2017 ---> 18M
297M <--- Apr 30, 2017 ---> 20M
316M <--- May 15, 2017 ---> 21M
June 6, 2017 = 1-for-15 R-Split
388M <--- Jul 31, 2017 ---> 26M
430M <--- Aug 1, 2017 ---> 29M
564M <--- Aug 11,2017 ---> 37M
637M <--- Oct 31,2017 ---> 42M
( Nov 3rd S-3 Filing - Page 44 )

================================

This Is A Lot Of Info ... But You Can See That
The Numbers Are Not What They Should Be
And That There Is Still A Long Way To Go

Plus: They Are Starting To Get "Tricky" Again

TO PUT IT ALL IN PERSPECTIVE
* The Number One Biggest Job And *
* Main Primary Concern Of Any CEO *
IS PUTTING LIPSTICK ON A PIG

================================

[finesand]

How about the guideline update?

Yes, 3Q17 GAAP numbers were 'sad'.
Disclaimer: Sidelines for now, also seeing $3 is being 'on the line' as we speak.

They claim to book current events into 4Q17, $35M+.

Also they claim $130M - $132M 2017 annual revenue,
increased from $115M - $125M.

All probably due to the multiple-agreement coming in next week.
Which should be non-dilutive etc, regarding to CFO.

All a forward-looking statement yes, but already within mid 4Q17.

Guess we will see next week, show me the money.

[Spider Web]

FAILURE TO EXECUTE


* All Projections And Expectations*
------> H A V E - F A I L ED <------

HEADING FOR $1.86 DOUBLE BOTTOM

I Tried To Give Them A Chance
To Turn All Their Crap Around !!!

BUT . . .

The First Quarter Was Really Bad.
The Second Quarter Was Still Weak.
The Third Quarter Will Still Be Behind.
And The Fourth Quarter Will Do Nothing.

NO ----> " NEW " <---- COLLABORATIONS
AS WAS PROMISED BY THE COMPANY !!!

JUST A FEW UPDATES WITH THE
SAME OLD COLLABORATORS :((

According To The Geniuses At The Company,
The First Nine Month Revs Should Be $150M !

But They Keep Backtracking To Now $90M !

This Year Revs Were Suppose To Be = $200M
But They Will Be Lucky To Get Only = $100M !

If They Keep Adjusting Projections Any Lower,
Then 1 Day They Might Increase Them Again !
. . . Ha! Ha! Ha! - LOL !!!


NOW PREDICTING LESS THAN $100M
FOR FISCAL YEAR 2017 REVENUES !!!

THAT IS A SUPER LONG WAY OFF FROM
THE $200M THAT THEY PROJECTED !!!

With The Debt And Previous Dilution,
---> Plus Current Share Structure <---
The PPS Should Now Be Way Below
-------> !!! TWO DOLLARS !!! <-------


BE CAREFUL
Because Those MM's Were Creeping That
PPS Up A Little, So They Could Do Some
Selling Before Collapsing It Again !!!


[:----- |

[ShadowSpy69]

still think this will play out...

[TheSerb]

TIME TO FLY AMRS!!!! LET'S GO!

[2014shelby]

Trend is downward and has been for a while

[ShadowSpy69]

Dunno...latest PR yesterday and this Inverted H&S on weekly playing out
http://investors.amyris.com/releasedetail.cfm?ReleaseID=1047657

[2014shelby]

Why, what's going on?

[ShadowSpy69]

real soon

[wallstreetbuyer]

Fins of this company is too complicate , but so called smart money bought at $4 or 5 ..not too long ago,why share price hardly maintain at $3?
Tax selling ?

[TheSerb]

Finally get some action here eh?

Triple Bottom

:-----)

[SubstitutedPinions]

That would be awesome.

[Spider Web]

DOUBLE BOTTOM

$1.86 Before EOY

[2014shelby]

When?

[2014shelby]

Maybe another RS? Maybe PPS will continue to slide? Does CEO know how to create shareholder value and equity?

[wallstreetbuyer]

What is the concern not to buy here?

[ShadowSpy69]

$3.75 to $4 coming...

[wallstreetbuyer]

Nice article. Thanks

[finesand]

Yes, quite complicated T-1 & T-2 deals.

The analysis posted here still stands and the high priced conversion will take place until next week.

[TheSerb]

Please Provide DD Here! Missing It Recently! Thanks!

[ShadowSpy69]

looking for 3.49 this week but prolly be held under 3.40. Bounce between 3,14-3.49 is my guess

[wallstreetbuyer]

The details of the fins/ deals are complicated. So AMRS is fundamentally undervalued but technically shor term stock could go either way. Turn around or not, what would be the clear sign that investors like to see?

[finesand]

Good question!
Looking at the chart and the past events, AMRS experienced:
- T-1 offering
- RS 1:15
- T-2 offering

This was quite a triple beating heavily utilized by the market, here the short play of course.
The beating down went so far below any historical Enterprise Value (EV) that even retail longs started to lose faith.

However, it might be simply natural. Even one of above events would have the power to bring a stock 20-30% below offering price for the short term, but usually recovers later on. Now we had even a RS and another subsequent offering.

The nature of the offering is quite different in this case, semantics. Both are being held by long term investors _and_ the new long term partner DSM. DSM also has a BOD seat now and partakes in controlling the company while collaborating.
None of these shares hit the market.

It often is easier to burn down Rome than to rebuild it, hence it needs time to grow confidence in the renewed AMRS.

Another question often arises: Do they have enough funding until 2020? Emphasizing the cash burn and debt payments starting mid 2018 until end of 2019.
This question is surely hard to answer, however, DSM mentioned they had an insider view into company's books and wouldn't have started their investment if financing wouldn't be on solid grounds (-> Investment Day). Further we have the hint in 2Q17's 10-Q 'going concern' filing, where they reduced the warning of not being cash flow positive 'only' into 2018. Indicating that maybe 4Q17 could mark a turnaround.

The best thing to validate the financing capabilities will be 4Q17 ER, with all of DSM's collaboration and maybe product revenues present.
If this is the remaining question based on the big long term short play visible right now, any technology breakthrough disclosure would surely ruin it on such path.
Long term short positions on technology stocks are difficult to say the least.

[wallstreetbuyer]

What is the reason current price so far away from $5+?

[finesand]

Conversion until 10/7 @ $5.91/sh avg

This will trigger some quite bullish Form-4 filings next week or the followup week.

As posted earlier, conversion is guaranteed and removing the Note's interest payment of the preferred.

Cash-Warrants now at $5.30/sh, which also is quite a bullish 'ceiling', if you like to see it as headwinds. IMO a conversion would be excellent for the company.

SI has been even increased over the last period, which is quite puzzling knowing the upcoming catalysts: DARPA, DSM collaboration payments for two products as posted and of course 2-3 sweeteners.
Brotas-2 should also be completed next year boosting COGS and volume.
The cosmetic branch, Biossance (sic?), may also increase as planned and add a little to the results.

Looking forward to a finally better 3Q17 (DARPA + DSM) and hopefully healthy 2018-2019.

Last thought about the too high short interest of 3.26M on 9/15, which almost reached the low float of 5M. Those may book on additional financing required in late 2018, which is quite a long stretch for a short position. If above catalysts do play out well, they may have a problem covering later on.
I assumed they already covered during the last run-up, hence the run-up itself proves pure demand.

Compared to sector, EV < $500M and MCAP < $260M is too low for their IP and tech. And magically, this is the price DSM was and is willing to pay > $5/sh.

Good Luck

[The Leader]

+6% gotta keep my eyes on this one

[TheSerb]

Thank You For The Chart Clay!

[Spider Web]

I Don't Think So Clay

For Saying So Much Clay, You Really Don't Seem To Be Saying Anything At All. From What I Gather From You Video: Is That It Could Go Up, Or Maybe Down Too, Right ? ... Is That It ?

One Of Your Overwhelmingly Obvious Suggestions Here, For Example, Is To An Easy Target Of $3.20. When The Real Hard Target Is Around $2.80. Some People Might Get A Little Upset When They Lose An Additional 40 Cents Because Of Your Advice Clay. Which Is Always Shrouded With A Bunch Of Disclaimer Type Verbiage Anyway.

That's Why People Complain That You Secretly Represent "The Shorts", When Really It's Just Bad Advice. All In Hopes Of Getting A Few More "Clicks" On Your Website.

You Always Seem To Be Late To The Party, And Then Way Behind The Curve On Your Targets Too. And Anybody Can Find Movers After They Have Already Happened Clay.

There Really Is Nothing Special About That !



But Never Mind All That Clay

What I Really Want To Know Is: How Many "Clicks" Are You Getting On Your Website From All Of These Free Advertising Gimmicks You Have Going On Here, While Spamming Your Links All Over iHub ? ... And Also: How Much Do You Get Paid Per "Click" ?

These Are The Things That People Really Want To Know Clay.

They Don't Really Want To Be Misled With Obvious Or Ambiguous False Targets.


Just My Opinion On Your Topic Of Analysis With Your Video-Chart Links, Which Lead To Yet More Links ... Since Bringing It Up.


C L I C K

[ClayTrader]

* * $AMRS Video Chart 09-14-17 * *

Link to Video - click here to watch the technical chart video

[SubstitutedPinions]

I know, if you've seen 3 of CT's "analyses"--you've seen them all. Goes to show how self-reinforcing retail investing is. Agree with ToS argument. iHub should ban.

[ClayTrader]

* * $AMRS Video Chart 09-13-17 * *

Link to Video - click here to watch the technical chart video

[ShadowSpy69]

another great day here! wahoo! C'mon gap fill the $8 level

[Spider Web]

A Good Two Weeks

Topped Out The 4HR I-Cloud
Pushed Against The Daily 50MA
8EMA Not Quite Ready To X 34MA
May Fall Into A Cup & Handle Pattern
MACD DMI STO RSI Seem Overbought
Also Hit 1-3-5-EW T-Line On 1HR Chart

Looking Good Overall For A Retrace ?


JMO

[ShadowSpy69]

like what I see

[finesand]

so .. we are still on track?

Recognized last 2 days has more selling than buying, stock still moving up. As if the bids were dip buyers supporting the move up.

[ShadowSpy69]

boom diggy dog keep it up

[finesand]

Bipolar Share Structure and EV

As stated multiple times, current EV valuation is ridiculous low, missing the $480M EV @ $5+. How come?

Thanks to 01, he posted some statements from IR, see snippet below. Not actually news here, but the lack of company being able to confidently state they can and are willing to avoid future debt conversions might the the cause of depressed trades here in this low channel $2 - $2.50 (ignoring the $1.60 line).

So the game seems to be early investor for cheap with another risk of dilution versus buying safe post all major dilutions and risks in 2019.

It is a bipolar situation for sure and would love to read more opinions about this situation here for a proper debate.

[finesand]

up to challenge $3-3.15

yes, $3.10 is the next post Ichimoko support cloud after the break through, as shown in the daily chart.

$3.28/sh (see P/S Today multiples) would be a first step towards EV recovery to $389M P/S 1.5 EV/R 4 - still far below company's value. $4.26 should be minimum today @ EV $433M P/S 2 EV/R 4.5.
Of course, such recovery may not happen in just one day, but usually fundamentals have the upper hand in the end.

Mind that $143M has already been payed in via T-1/2 and up to $241M will be invested, all Cash Warrants converted at $5.30.
As of today, $2.66/sh is $119M MCAP below already invested cash and far below the total. See previously posted fundamental sheet. This is now traded below new re-capitalization, a joke!

Just to match the full re-capitalization of $240M and 63.37M OS, stock should be traded at $3.80. Since this is only for 67.24% of the company, 100% would be $5.64 per share. And look, that is roughly about the average being payed in T-1/2 offering!

Here the T-1 and T-2 investment overview again

[finesand]

Accumulation, Coiling Indicators ..

Obviously manipulated down on relative low volume.

can't even hold $2.50 ugghhh

For over a week this is swinging around this range, yesterday showed more steady uptick volume than downtick (74k down only).

EV of $480M should be recovered @ $5+/sh at least.
Right now after the debt equity swap at $5.64/sh (DSM, Vivo .. investment) EV has lost around $150M - $200M without any reason. We know that EV is the all included company evaluation. Debt has been reduced and cash added, hence MCAP shall move up. Compared to EV, MCAP is far too low despite increased OS, see fundamentals below.

Chart wise, the range sideways flattened D 8ema, crossed MACD w/ positive histogram, closing up to D 20ma, steady rise in RSI and A/D - preparing the breakout.
When you look at the Ichimoko Cloud, you see the hole being opened up and its supporting hand grabbing under the candles pulling it up (fine blue line).

Since volume is increasing over the days now and the real float almost completely shorted, increase of volume only supports what the chart already tells us. I assume the professional shorts already covered having created or used the current swings.

Peter DeNardo is back in office today and CFO's office will answer important outstanding questions, which will be reported - I have read.

The Chart


The Fundamentals Again

[ShadowSpy69]

been in a flag pattern since the sub $2 pop. 30 min chart wants $2.50+ up to challenge $3-3.15 imho