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Trend is downward and has been for a while
Dunno...latest PR yesterday and this Inverted H&S on weekly playing out
http://investors.amyris.com/releasedetail.cfm?ReleaseID=1047657
Why, what's going on?
real soon
Fins of this company is too complicate , but so called smart money bought at $4 or 5 ..not too long ago,why share price hardly maintain at $3?
Tax selling ?
Finally get some action here eh?
Triple Bottom
:-----)
That would be awesome.
Maybe another RS? Maybe PPS will continue to slide? Does CEO know how to create shareholder value and equity?
What is the concern not to buy here?
Nice article. Thanks
Yes, quite complicated T-1 & T-2 deals.
The analysis posted here still stands and the high priced conversion will take place until next week.
Please Provide DD Here! Missing It Recently! Thanks!
looking for 3.49 this week but prolly be held under 3.40. Bounce between 3,14-3.49 is my guess
The details of the fins/ deals are complicated. So AMRS is fundamentally undervalued but technically shor term stock could go either way. Turn around or not, what would be the clear sign that investors like to see?
Good question!
Looking at the chart and the past events, AMRS experienced:
- T-1 offering
- RS 1:15
- T-2 offering
This was quite a triple beating heavily utilized by the market, here the short play of course.
The beating down went so far below any historical Enterprise Value (EV) that even retail longs started to lose faith.
However, it might be simply natural. Even one of above events would have the power to bring a stock 20-30% below offering price for the short term, but usually recovers later on. Now we had even a RS and another subsequent offering.
The nature of the offering is quite different in this case, semantics. Both are being held by long term investors _and_ the new long term partner DSM. DSM also has a BOD seat now and partakes in controlling the company while collaborating.
None of these shares hit the market.
It often is easier to burn down Rome than to rebuild it, hence it needs time to grow confidence in the renewed AMRS.
Another question often arises: Do they have enough funding until 2020? Emphasizing the cash burn and debt payments starting mid 2018 until end of 2019.
This question is surely hard to answer, however, DSM mentioned they had an insider view into company's books and wouldn't have started their investment if financing wouldn't be on solid grounds (-> Investment Day). Further we have the hint in 2Q17's 10-Q 'going concern' filing, where they reduced the warning of not being cash flow positive 'only' into 2018. Indicating that maybe 4Q17 could mark a turnaround.
The best thing to validate the financing capabilities will be 4Q17 ER, with all of DSM's collaboration and maybe product revenues present.
If this is the remaining question based on the big long term short play visible right now, any technology breakthrough disclosure would surely ruin it on such path.
Long term short positions on technology stocks are difficult to say the least.
What is the reason current price so far away from $5+?
Conversion until 10/7 @ $5.91/sh avg
This will trigger some quite bullish Form-4 filings next week or the followup week.
As posted earlier, conversion is guaranteed and removing the Note's interest payment of the preferred.
Cash-Warrants now at $5.30/sh, which also is quite a bullish 'ceiling', if you like to see it as headwinds. IMO a conversion would be excellent for the company.
SI has been even increased over the last period, which is quite puzzling knowing the upcoming catalysts: DARPA, DSM collaboration payments for two products as posted and of course 2-3 sweeteners.
Brotas-2 should also be completed next year boosting COGS and volume.
The cosmetic branch, Biossance (sic?), may also increase as planned and add a little to the results.
Looking forward to a finally better 3Q17 (DARPA + DSM) and hopefully healthy 2018-2019.
Last thought about the too high short interest of 3.26M on 9/15, which almost reached the low float of 5M. Those may book on additional financing required in late 2018, which is quite a long stretch for a short position. If above catalysts do play out well, they may have a problem covering later on.
I assumed they already covered during the last run-up, hence the run-up itself proves pure demand.
Compared to sector, EV < $500M and MCAP < $260M is too low for their IP and tech. And magically, this is the price DSM was and is willing to pay > $5/sh.
Good Luck
Thank You For The Chart Clay!
I Don't Think So Clay
For Saying So Much Clay, You Really Don't Seem To Be Saying Anything At All. From What I Gather From You Video: Is That It Could Go Up, Or Maybe Down Too, Right ? ... Is That It ?
One Of Your Overwhelmingly Obvious Suggestions Here, For Example, Is To An Easy Target Of $3.20. When The Real Hard Target Is Around $2.80. Some People Might Get A Little Upset When They Lose An Additional 40 Cents Because Of Your Advice Clay. Which Is Always Shrouded With A Bunch Of Disclaimer Type Verbiage Anyway.
That's Why People Complain That You Secretly Represent "The Shorts", When Really It's Just Bad Advice. All In Hopes Of Getting A Few More "Clicks" On Your Website.
You Always Seem To Be Late To The Party, And Then Way Behind The Curve On Your Targets Too. And Anybody Can Find Movers After They Have Already Happened Clay.
There Really Is Nothing Special About That !
But Never Mind All That Clay
What I Really Want To Know Is: How Many "Clicks" Are You Getting On Your Website From All Of These Free Advertising Gimmicks You Have Going On Here, While Spamming Your Links All Over iHub ? ... And Also: How Much Do You Get Paid Per "Click" ?
These Are The Things That People Really Want To Know Clay.
They Don't Really Want To Be Misled With Obvious Or Ambiguous False Targets.
Just My Opinion On Your Topic Of Analysis With Your Video-Chart Links, Which Lead To Yet More Links ... Since Bringing It Up.
C L I C K
* * $AMRS Video Chart 09-14-17 * *
Link to Video - click here to watch the technical chart video
I know, if you've seen 3 of CT's "analyses"--you've seen them all. Goes to show how self-reinforcing retail investing is. Agree with ToS argument. iHub should ban.
* * $AMRS Video Chart 09-13-17 * *
Link to Video - click here to watch the technical chart video
another great day here! wahoo! C'mon gap fill the $8 level
A Good Two Weeks
Topped Out The 4HR I-Cloud
Pushed Against The Daily 50MA
8EMA Not Quite Ready To X 34MA
May Fall Into A Cup & Handle Pattern
MACD DMI STO RSI Seem Overbought
Also Hit 1-3-5-EW T-Line On 1HR Chart
Looking Good Overall For A Retrace ?
JMO
so .. we are still on track?
Recognized last 2 days has more selling than buying, stock still moving up. As if the bids were dip buyers supporting the move up.
boom diggy dog keep it up
Bipolar Share Structure and EV
As stated multiple times, current EV valuation is ridiculous low, missing the $480M EV @ $5+. How come?
Thanks to 01, he posted some statements from IR, see snippet below. Not actually news here, but the lack of company being able to confidently state they can and are willing to avoid future debt conversions might the the cause of depressed trades here in this low channel $2 - $2.50 (ignoring the $1.60 line).
So the game seems to be early investor for cheap with another risk of dilution versus buying safe post all major dilutions and risks in 2019.
It is a bipolar situation for sure and would love to read more opinions about this situation here for a proper debate.
up to challenge $3-3.15
yes, $3.10 is the next post Ichimoko support cloud after the break through, as shown in the daily chart.
$3.28/sh (see P/S Today multiples) would be a first step towards EV recovery to $389M P/S 1.5 EV/R 4 - still far below company's value. $4.26 should be minimum today @ EV $433M P/S 2 EV/R 4.5.
Of course, such recovery may not happen in just one day, but usually fundamentals have the upper hand in the end.
Mind that $143M has already been payed in via T-1/2 and up to $241M will be invested, all Cash Warrants converted at $5.30.
As of today, $2.66/sh is $119M MCAP below already invested cash and far below the total. See previously posted fundamental sheet. This is now traded below new re-capitalization, a joke!
Just to match the full re-capitalization of $240M and 63.37M OS, stock should be traded at $3.80. Since this is only for 67.24% of the company, 100% would be $5.64 per share. And look, that is roughly about the average being payed in T-1/2 offering!
Here the T-1 and T-2 investment overview again
Accumulation, Coiling Indicators ..
Obviously manipulated down on relative low volume.
can't even hold $2.50 ugghhh
been in a flag pattern since the sub $2 pop. 30 min chart wants $2.50+ up to challenge $3-3.15 imho
WHAT DOES THIS EVEN MEAN???
PLEASE EXPAND ON THIS SPRING THEORY!
AMRS
Coiled Spring
Starting To Show Up
On Several Time Frames
can't even hold $2.50 ugghhh
Dilution is handled via recent premium offering.
Reply to one request to company is pending, whether they project this shall cover the 2019 debt payments as well. It is very much possible so.
In the latter case, there is no reason why the EV value shall not recover as projected, i.e. share price moving back to $4 - $5 range. This has been calculated earlier, taking EV value's debt to equity swap into account and so forth.
Might be the reason why DSM + Vivo went 'all in' here, at least in regards to their AMRS position.
"Adding To Core Position "
Why? dilution is done?
"A mive above $3"
First need to break $.35 to confirm the trend turn around.
IMO, this stock may jump 30-50% high one day, the question is when, could be around $.30, or $.20,$.10?
Adding To Core Position
3 Trips So Far Between 30-Min 20-BB's
Sometimes Pushing Into 30-Min 50-BB's
Accumulation Channel Sometimes
Takes 2 Weeks From Original Low
Speculating A Move Above $3.00
FWIW = For What It's Worth
I FEEL GOOD ABOUT TODAY HERE AT AMRS!!!
JMO
Triple Bottom!
The Struggle Continues, AMRS Shall State end of Dilution
I can add the following findings regarding insecurity of investors and the short thesis:
- $4.26 is the next T-1 T-2 AD Warrants threshold.
- TAB R&D Noted of $3.7M to be payed until EOY '17. If done in cash great, if using equity at lowered conversion price down it goes.
- $20.7M 10% pa interest Guanfu Credit left, which could be payed in equity at 90% VWAP of 90d closing price as well. Same thing here, if using equity, down it goes.
Above are two potential triggers for lowering the T-1 T-2 Cash-Warrant conversion prices, which is truly feared. I spoke with one long term short holder at $3.50 and she is using this 'instrument'.
The Vivo deal already brought down the conversion price and triggered AD Warrants with DSM's blessing - might have been even their requirement to average down further.
Now the price tag for them is at $5.30 for conversions.
What poor retail surely needs to know from the company is, whether they will pay down the mentioned debt in cash and end the dilution spiral reducing common's stake in the company.
If that can be assure by the company, the awaited recovery at least around $5.30 matching purchase average should work out.
It is a struggle between trust, opportunity and deception.
Especially deception plays a big role in here, some even thought T-1 would have been offered above $17/sh not doing the dilutive math in detail, bringing it down to $6.30. Now - again - we are at $5.30. Tough decisions and chart seems to capture just that.
wth is going on with shorts here?
Spider Web, so you might know as a previous short?
Daily short volume increasing, buying decreased again.
Dude on ST just showed the half day candles and it looks similar to the pre-plunge pattern, down until mid/end lunch, then up on little volume.
Just some 'short aspect' brainstorming, what negative catalysts could be in the pot regarding to keep this from recovering?
- Market not appreciating the much higher purchase price yet.
- The lawsuit?
- Assuming that the proceeds won't make it up until 2019 EOY and hence further dilution will happen?
- Other negative regulatory updates?
Well, for me I stick with the recovery trade back up to $5.64/sh avg purchase price. Just a question of when, but may re-test $2.20 until then. Let's see end of week.
Tracking Technicals
The SP Looked To Be Channeling Inside The
30-Min I-Cloud, And Just Broke Upward & Out.
Short-Term Target Might Be Around The
30-Min 20/50-UBB's. This Is Also Near
To The 1-HR Lower I-Cloud.
FWIW - Speculation For Now
Who puts their money where their mouth is? (revised)
Assuming 21M OS, they bought:
- already: 24.22M shares, 54% of company @ $5.91/sh
- with Cash Warrants max: 42.62M shares, 67% of company @ $5.64/sh
DSM already converted all of the preferred into common shares, they had a look into the books before the deal and don't need the preferred privilege for fears of a bankruptcy. There will be none. Vivo also bought 2.83M common shares and will convert the 3.04M on 10/7.
All in all, this is like a 54 - 67% buyout of the company at $5.60/sh - $5.90/sh or $143M - $241M and the stock shall move accordingly.
Note that the full purchase proceeds incl. Cash Warrants does cover the whole debt payments of the company of $227M (10-Q Note 5 Details), see below.
Also attached the adjusted fundamentals & modeled 3Q17 and 4Q18,
nice job zeroone01.
PS: Lowered purchase price due to adjusted Cash Warrant conversion price down to $5.30/sh. Also the T-2 Cash Warrants were missed.
+++
F W I W
Clay Trader = Spam
Posters Should Click The Report TOS Violations Tab Down At The Lower Right Hand Side Of His Postings. Click Spam As A Violation, And Add A Comment To Express Your Opinion.
If A Few People Do This, Just On This AMRS Board, Maybe TOS Will Take Note And Ban Him From This Board.
Clay Trader Is Spamming His Own Website, He Is Cleverly Soliciting To People With Some Basic Charting To Justify His Spamming. But His Charts Always Say The Same Things: Always The Obvious Support Or Resistance. Always The 30 Min Time Frame. Always The 50-MA. Always The Same, Just To Cover-Up His Own Spamming.
In Essence, Clay Trader Offers Nothing More Than A Commercial Advertisement To His Own Business / Website... Pure And Simple. His Postings Are Basically Free Advertising. He Offers Nothing Of Value With His Mock-Up Charts, Except To Spam His Own Website.
He Should Be Paying IHub For A Billboard Or Advert On Their Web-Page Instead, And Not Allowed A Free Ride To Advertise His Brand On This Message Board.
J M O
Who puts their money where their mouth is?
Assuming 20M OS, they bought:
- already: 23.77M shares, 54% of company @ $5.97/sh
- may buy up-to: 34.23M shares, 64% of company @ $6.41/sh
That is high above current market price, who needs an analyst with this huge purchase of confidence?
Note that all gets converted on 10/7 into common shares above marked price and none will sell of course.
DSM already converted all of them into common shares, they had a look into the books before the deal and don't need the preferred or warrants privilege for fears of a bankruptcy. There will be none. Vivo also bought 2.83M common shares and will convert the rest on 10/7.
All in all, this is like a 54 - 64% buyout of the company at $6 - $6.40 and the stock shall move accordingly.
As posted earlier on SA and ST, here are the purchase details:
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