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Bipolar Share Structure and EV
As stated multiple times, current EV valuation is ridiculous low, missing the $480M EV @ $5+. How come?
Thanks to 01, he posted some statements from IR, see snippet below. Not actually news here, but the lack of company being able to confidently state they can and are willing to avoid future debt conversions might the the cause of depressed trades here in this low channel $2 - $2.50 (ignoring the $1.60 line).
So the game seems to be early investor for cheap with another risk of dilution versus buying safe post all major dilutions and risks in 2019.
It is a bipolar situation for sure and would love to read more opinions about this situation here for a proper debate.
up to challenge $3-3.15
yes, $3.10 is the next post Ichimoko support cloud after the break through, as shown in the daily chart.
$3.28/sh (see P/S Today multiples) would be a first step towards EV recovery to $389M P/S 1.5 EV/R 4 - still far below company's value. $4.26 should be minimum today @ EV $433M P/S 2 EV/R 4.5.
Of course, such recovery may not happen in just one day, but usually fundamentals have the upper hand in the end.
Mind that $143M has already been payed in via T-1/2 and up to $241M will be invested, all Cash Warrants converted at $5.30.
As of today, $2.66/sh is $119M MCAP below already invested cash and far below the total. See previously posted fundamental sheet. This is now traded below new re-capitalization, a joke!
Just to match the full re-capitalization of $240M and 63.37M OS, stock should be traded at $3.80. Since this is only for 67.24% of the company, 100% would be $5.64 per share. And look, that is roughly about the average being payed in T-1/2 offering!
Here the T-1 and T-2 investment overview again
Accumulation, Coiling Indicators ..
Obviously manipulated down on relative low volume.
can't even hold $2.50 ugghhh
been in a flag pattern since the sub $2 pop. 30 min chart wants $2.50+ up to challenge $3-3.15 imho
WHAT DOES THIS EVEN MEAN???
PLEASE EXPAND ON THIS SPRING THEORY!
AMRS
Coiled Spring
Starting To Show Up
On Several Time Frames
can't even hold $2.50 ugghhh
Dilution is handled via recent premium offering.
Reply to one request to company is pending, whether they project this shall cover the 2019 debt payments as well. It is very much possible so.
In the latter case, there is no reason why the EV value shall not recover as projected, i.e. share price moving back to $4 - $5 range. This has been calculated earlier, taking EV value's debt to equity swap into account and so forth.
Might be the reason why DSM + Vivo went 'all in' here, at least in regards to their AMRS position.
"Adding To Core Position "
Why? dilution is done?
"A mive above $3"
First need to break $.35 to confirm the trend turn around.
IMO, this stock may jump 30-50% high one day, the question is when, could be around $.30, or $.20,$.10?
Adding To Core Position
3 Trips So Far Between 30-Min 20-BB's
Sometimes Pushing Into 30-Min 50-BB's
Accumulation Channel Sometimes
Takes 2 Weeks From Original Low
Speculating A Move Above $3.00
FWIW = For What It's Worth
I FEEL GOOD ABOUT TODAY HERE AT AMRS!!!
JMO
Triple Bottom!
The Struggle Continues, AMRS Shall State end of Dilution
I can add the following findings regarding insecurity of investors and the short thesis:
- $4.26 is the next T-1 T-2 AD Warrants threshold.
- TAB R&D Noted of $3.7M to be payed until EOY '17. If done in cash great, if using equity at lowered conversion price down it goes.
- $20.7M 10% pa interest Guanfu Credit left, which could be payed in equity at 90% VWAP of 90d closing price as well. Same thing here, if using equity, down it goes.
Above are two potential triggers for lowering the T-1 T-2 Cash-Warrant conversion prices, which is truly feared. I spoke with one long term short holder at $3.50 and she is using this 'instrument'.
The Vivo deal already brought down the conversion price and triggered AD Warrants with DSM's blessing - might have been even their requirement to average down further.
Now the price tag for them is at $5.30 for conversions.
What poor retail surely needs to know from the company is, whether they will pay down the mentioned debt in cash and end the dilution spiral reducing common's stake in the company.
If that can be assure by the company, the awaited recovery at least around $5.30 matching purchase average should work out.
It is a struggle between trust, opportunity and deception.
Especially deception plays a big role in here, some even thought T-1 would have been offered above $17/sh not doing the dilutive math in detail, bringing it down to $6.30. Now - again - we are at $5.30. Tough decisions and chart seems to capture just that.
wth is going on with shorts here?
Spider Web, so you might know as a previous short?
Daily short volume increasing, buying decreased again.
Dude on ST just showed the half day candles and it looks similar to the pre-plunge pattern, down until mid/end lunch, then up on little volume.
Just some 'short aspect' brainstorming, what negative catalysts could be in the pot regarding to keep this from recovering?
- Market not appreciating the much higher purchase price yet.
- The lawsuit?
- Assuming that the proceeds won't make it up until 2019 EOY and hence further dilution will happen?
- Other negative regulatory updates?
Well, for me I stick with the recovery trade back up to $5.64/sh avg purchase price. Just a question of when, but may re-test $2.20 until then. Let's see end of week.
Tracking Technicals
The SP Looked To Be Channeling Inside The
30-Min I-Cloud, And Just Broke Upward & Out.
Short-Term Target Might Be Around The
30-Min 20/50-UBB's. This Is Also Near
To The 1-HR Lower I-Cloud.
FWIW - Speculation For Now
Who puts their money where their mouth is? (revised)
Assuming 21M OS, they bought:
- already: 24.22M shares, 54% of company @ $5.91/sh
- with Cash Warrants max: 42.62M shares, 67% of company @ $5.64/sh
DSM already converted all of the preferred into common shares, they had a look into the books before the deal and don't need the preferred privilege for fears of a bankruptcy. There will be none. Vivo also bought 2.83M common shares and will convert the 3.04M on 10/7.
All in all, this is like a 54 - 67% buyout of the company at $5.60/sh - $5.90/sh or $143M - $241M and the stock shall move accordingly.
Note that the full purchase proceeds incl. Cash Warrants does cover the whole debt payments of the company of $227M (10-Q Note 5 Details), see below.
Also attached the adjusted fundamentals & modeled 3Q17 and 4Q18,
nice job zeroone01.
PS: Lowered purchase price due to adjusted Cash Warrant conversion price down to $5.30/sh. Also the T-2 Cash Warrants were missed.
+++
F W I W
Clay Trader = Spam
Posters Should Click The Report TOS Violations Tab Down At The Lower Right Hand Side Of His Postings. Click Spam As A Violation, And Add A Comment To Express Your Opinion.
If A Few People Do This, Just On This AMRS Board, Maybe TOS Will Take Note And Ban Him From This Board.
Clay Trader Is Spamming His Own Website, He Is Cleverly Soliciting To People With Some Basic Charting To Justify His Spamming. But His Charts Always Say The Same Things: Always The Obvious Support Or Resistance. Always The 30 Min Time Frame. Always The 50-MA. Always The Same, Just To Cover-Up His Own Spamming.
In Essence, Clay Trader Offers Nothing More Than A Commercial Advertisement To His Own Business / Website... Pure And Simple. His Postings Are Basically Free Advertising. He Offers Nothing Of Value With His Mock-Up Charts, Except To Spam His Own Website.
He Should Be Paying IHub For A Billboard Or Advert On Their Web-Page Instead, And Not Allowed A Free Ride To Advertise His Brand On This Message Board.
J M O
Who puts their money where their mouth is?
Assuming 20M OS, they bought:
- already: 23.77M shares, 54% of company @ $5.97/sh
- may buy up-to: 34.23M shares, 64% of company @ $6.41/sh
That is high above current market price, who needs an analyst with this huge purchase of confidence?
Note that all gets converted on 10/7 into common shares above marked price and none will sell of course.
DSM already converted all of them into common shares, they had a look into the books before the deal and don't need the preferred or warrants privilege for fears of a bankruptcy. There will be none. Vivo also bought 2.83M common shares and will convert the rest on 10/7.
All in all, this is like a 54 - 64% buyout of the company at $6 - $6.40 and the stock shall move accordingly.
As posted earlier on SA and ST, here are the purchase details:
Hey, Clay, not even willing to see resistance and RSI 'eh?
Just mumbling about your 30 minute chart of TWO DAYS 2.10 support and whether that poor weak stock will hold its knee jerk reaction. I love your obvious style, your guys in the red paint?
Maybe you should try TA even for once?
Yes, we do use the daily chart Sir.
RSI still super low, bounced off lower BB,
was rejected on the 8ema (maybe tell your trolls the meaning of the 8ema for once?).
On the 5min, 15min and yes, 30min, 8ema finally held below the candles for 1.5 days. What does that mean Sir? Yes, bullish reversal.
Also, it is not 2.10, but 2 - 2.20 range which should hold,
i.e. maintaining at least partially the bullish engulfing candle.
I personally will watch out for 2.20 support, just in case.
Resistance is the 8ema 2.48 for obvious reasons, bears don't like to see stock in an uptrend. Then the actual resistance of 2.50 produced by last 8 trading days.
After 2.50 is broken, the 20MA and MBB 3.22 shall be reached quickly and a dramatic rise shall occur.
I hear 'em already, 'w/o news it P&D', while a plunge w/o news is just fine :)
News are already out, great 2Q17 and the premium offering, sold 54% of company @ 5.97. Maybe even more at 6.41. But who cares about the important evaluation, who puts money where their mouth is.
No thanks Mr Captain Non-Obvious, but surely we are used to volatility and will take advantage of the shorts Monday on the attempt to bring this down. Some longs might even 'short' themselves, but only to cover and buy more just above your telegraphed covering price target, creating a nice inflection point around 10:30am? Maybe earlier?. This stock always trades under lots of distress, used to it - not losing.
Copying a nice chart as posted recently .. have fun.
Look at the 3 year chart. That is a terrible looking trend. Why would there be a reversal?
* * $AMRS Video Chart 08-18-17 * *
Link to Video - click here to watch the technical chart video
Nice volume today... extremely undervalued. Q3 report stock value should easily double. Long run here. share price is a steal right now
Is AMRS doing another RS? The PPS just keeps dropping
RSI lower-double-bottom turnaround play
(re-post of this colorful chart from ST)
Suggestion is, we are at a similar point as of 3/8,
which produced a lower bottom as of 2/2,
having a higher RSI.
Now on 8/16, we have a lower bottom and slightly higher RSI
compared to 6/21. Period is a bit stretched due to ER.
Also see the Ichimoko cloud removed resistance.
The above may conclude that we are becoming ready to a reversal again soon, if not even tomorrow.
Thanks for the info! Great work.
Compared to T-1 and T-2 cash inflow of around $200M or more, the stock's MCAP is less than half and EV just 2/3.
Found missing T-1 Equity & Liabilities Reduction.
(got this from a ST thread, nice DD)
Everybody might have expected a much better looking balance sheet 2Q17 due to the T-1 offering already and were disappointed.
Up until 7/7:
- DSM got 7.936M shares @ $7.425/sh $58.95M.
- Doerr/Naxos payed $65.2M = $25M + $40.2M debt for a not yet disclosed amount of shares and Cash Warrant conversion.
Maximum theoretical funding via T-1 and T-2 is:
T-1 Total: 27.73M @ $7.43/sh for $205.90M
T-2 Total: 12.38M @ $5.87/sh for $ 72.72M
Total: 40.11M @ $6.95/sh for $278.62M
The 10-Q states that only $31.20M cash and $40.20M debt reduction, total $71.4M, has been accounted in 2Q17 with OS 25.27M. Subsequently they mention $50M has been accounted for T-2 within 3Q17 with OS 37.61M.
The conversions hasn't been completed yet, not all Cash Warrants have been converted - more cash to come.
10-Q balance sheet didn't show an equity raise of anything close to $71.4M, but just some $12M.
The big question arises: Where is the money?
As mentioned above most of the shares to be offered were not yet converted.
The T-1 deal in May was structured in a very complicated manner. Shares couldn't be just issued, since they exceed the 20% threshold and a post deal SH meeting on 7/7 had to approve it. To secure the investor's ROI, a promise in dividend payments had to be given in case they had to keep the notes (preferred shares). Dividend payment would then be performed in common shares if conversion failed, hence more shares given if stock price goes lower.
This construct had to be modeled into the balance sheet as a level-3 derivative liability, see FAS 157 - Derivative valuation insights.
10-Q shows an increment of $51.128M in level-3 derivative liabilities, adding $58.606M to Total Liabilities due to some potential event of anti-dilutive conversion modeled.
The 2Q17 PR especially hints to the resolution
Included within other income for the second quarter was a gain of $35.8 million arising from the change in fair value of derivative liabilities recognized primarily in connection with the closing of the company's Series A and B financing rounds in May 2017. The net loss attributable to common stockholders included non-cash items such as a gain from changes in fair value of embedded derivatives, stock-based compensation expense, accretion of convertible preferred stock, and deemed and cumulative dividends to convertible preferred stockholders.
As a reminder, the preferred stock sold in both tranches will be automatically converted to common stock October 7, which is 90 days following our shareholder approval, July 7
10-Q p9 Liquidity, let's quote properly:
The Company has incurred significant operating losses since its inception and expects to continue to incur losses and negative cash flows from operations into 2018. As of June 30, 2017, the Company had negative working capital of $21.8 million, an accumulated deficit of $1.2 billion, and cash, cash equivalents and short term investments of $6.6 million. These factors raise substantial doubt about the Company’s ability to continue as a going concern within one year after the date that these financial statements are issued. The financial statements do not include any adjustments that might result from the outcome of this uncertainty.
yup, sounds familiar. the re-capitalization sadly hasn't been recognized yet in this 10-Q. Hence the OS is still lower than estimated 55M - 64M. This will be fully reflected within 3Q17.
Also this pending recognition still kept the going concern phrase as known in the filing. However:
- it has been filed that it happened (re-capitalization)
- collab + product revenue on track now.
Also the 10-Q has been filed on time and matches the PR.
Removes the hysterical mood.
As of June 30, 2017, the Company had negative working capital of $21.8 million, an accumulated deficit of $1.2 billion, and cash, cash equivalents and short term investments of $6.6 million
Fair Floor Value & 2Q17 Highlights..
See SA blog post from 8/11.
Now d info u r posting is correct.
D future of this Co is amazing IMO
Almost bullish? re-reading your post again :)
Well, either believe DSM + Vivo who surely had a look into the details before making their premium investment or you may simply wait until 3Q17 to pay more for your stake.
I am surely hopeful at this point, for $130M+ good reasons.
- SI wise, you are correct.
- Otherwise: Just think about the investment inflow $130M (could be max higher) at high premium to current price (T-2).
If this is not confidence enough Sir, I don't know what is.
We know past performance sucked due to low margin bio-fuel
and company is still in early stage commercialization.
I have to question about your strong enthusiasm as a short here, almost a ridiculous obsession. Until the final declaration of latest offering was disclosed I also held back and knew the volatility will hit. The big unknown.
Now all is set up for growth w/o liquidity issues, your ongoing bearish sentiment still gets noticed, but wiped away by the big premium investment.
Time to follow the vision again Sir.
I hope you are aware that there is a strong market for synthetic biotech companies? IMO Amyris is now better positioned than XON.
The year long experience of this company, yes - even the failures, will help making this a success story while standing on strong shoulders!
UPDATED INFORMATION
APPROX SHORT INTEREST
Short Per Nsdq = 1.76M
Float Per Finviz = 13.89M
Closer To 13% ---> Not 64%
THREE WAYS TO PROFIT
1) Higher Revenues
2) Better Margins
3) Lower Expenses
1) HIGHER REVENUES
Product + Collaborations ---------> Total
Q1-2016 = $03.1M + $05.7M ---> $08.8M
Q2-2016 = $04.9M + $04.7M ---> $09.6M
Q3-2016 = $06.8M + $19.7M ---> $26.5M
Q4-2016 = $11.5M + $10.8M ---> $22.3M
FY-TOTAL = $26 + $41 ----------> $67M
Q1-2017 = $08.3M + $04.7M ---> $13.0M
Q2-2017 = $12.7M + $13.0M ---> $25.7M
FY-EST = $60M + $55M ---------> $115M
2) BETTER MARGINS
Q1-2016 = (300%)
Q2-2016 = 18%
Q3-2016 = 44%
Q4-2016 = (2%)
Q1-2017 = 2%
Q2-2017 = 33%
3) LOWER COSTS AND
OPERATING EXPENSE
COGS + R&D + SG&A
Q1-2016 = $35M
Q2-2016 = $33M
Q3-2016 = $38M
Q4-2016 = $57M
Q1-2017 = $40M
Q2-2017 = $48M
This Will Follow
LEADING TO PROFITS
IMPROVED EARNINGS
Pre-Split -------------> Post-Split
Q1-2016 = ($0.07) ---> ($1.11)
Q2-2016 = ($0.06) ---> ($0.91)
Q3-2016 = ($0.08) ---> ($1.19)
Q4-2016 = ($0.18) ---> ($2.68)
Q1-2017 = ($0.13) ---> ($1.94)
Q2-2017 = ($0.03) ---> ($0.46)
COMMENTS
Improved Revs + Margins + Earnings
Revenues Increased To Almost $26M ,
Second Best In The Company's History.
Then The Gross Margin Jumped To 33% ,
Second Best In The Company's History.
Pre-Split EPS = ($0.03) & 10 Cents Better ,
The Best EPS In The Company's History.
The "Post-Split" EPS Number Equals ($0.46) ,
Which Beat The Analyst Estimates Of ($1.23) .
That Estimate Was Beat By 77 Cents, Or 63% .
Technicals Are Setting Up
Double, Maybe Triple Bottom On Volume.
Oversold With A Double Pincher Pattern.
Getting Their Act Together
Product Revenues Are Starting To Ramp Up ,
More And Better Collaborations On The Way.
Gross Margins Are Stabilizing And Improving.
Total Costs & Operating Expenses Will Drop.
2016 TOTAL ACTUAL REVENUES
Product $26M + Collaborations $41M = $67M
2017 TOTAL REVENUE ESTIMATES
Product $60M + Collaborations $55M = $115M
2018 PRODUCT REVENUE TO DOUBLE
Plus More & Better Collaborations & Catalysts
Similar To Last Year, But No Pump-n-Dump.
No More Tricks Lurking In The Background.
JMO
Reading the ongoing analysis and evaluation over this weekend, I cannot stop laughing about Friday's dip and truly have to thank all the shorts or who-ever who made this happen.
- 2Q17 a double beat
- 64% of float shorted (holy moly)
- EV now just about offering investment, should be double
- 2018 $16/sh @ EV/R 3 only, bottom evaluation
- ..
Now I have tears of laughter in my eyes and I have to stop typing, not to creating a short circuit in my keyboard :)
Now I understand where you're low PT is coming from.
Summer 2016 depressed price of around $4.65 happened due to lack of revenue starting in 2015. Company also had a liquidity crisis and indeed Bankruptcy could have been a possibility.
The negative sentiment was hard to cure, as always, it takes multiple quarters to repair previously done damage.
The T-1 and T-2 dilution lead to a retention of around 30% of pre-dilution value, hence $4.65 depressed lows equals $1.40.
Well, company is no more under bankruptcy risk for almost one year - and on filed paper for like 8 month.
Latest debt restructuring and re-capitalization removed all doubts about it, especially since they are now fully funded and won't need to find customers handing them out money upfront.
IMO this is a very important part of the equation.
Now we can look at the pre-dilution $8 bottom, equaling to $2.40 today. And it hit! Is that price reasonable at all?
I don't think so, since it reflected a bad ER outlier with the confusion of the impact of this offering as well as the RS depression. Previously the selling insider Temasek also pushed the price down, all these headwinds are gone now.
The offering took away debt and hence moved value to equity, book wise. Not even mentioning DSM's long term positive impact regarding revenue.
As of now, we are looking at a healthy company, financials being fixed and ready to fulfill its high margin product value share and collaborations.
No more biofuel
Careful. Best approach reality slowly...
Spidey, you're saying that the projections are worse yet you yourself predicted it at 1.25 and now you are suggesting it is at 1.50 so by your own inclination you see this getting better not worse.
Second quarter total revenue of $25.7 million was 168% greater than the second quarter of 2016. Product sales were up 159% year-over-year and 53% on a sequential basis.
Second quarter revenue of $25.7 million includes $12.7 million of product revenue and $13 million of collaboration revenue. This result is better than the target of doubling prior year revenue - prior year quarter product revenue and better than 2017 plan to date and the performance of most other companies in Amyris space.
This is not my opinion, it is copy paste from actual statements right after Q2 results yesterday.
I would like Spiderweb to back up his "opinions".
But d best is yet to come... their great science, is starting to payoff...
They've been significantly reducing debt, they have new big investors with whom they have product collaboration agreements, focusing on high demand-high margin products, and so much more in the pipeline... new plants to increase production coming soon, etc. The sweetner, perfume molecules, pharma, tyre industry, food... you name it.
This company is gonna be huge in d near future IMO of course.
Just wait and see...
you should clean your ears a bit: 'double or better' even the CFO said, while low-balling expectations to not create another Melo disaster.
Performance compared w/ current MCAP assuming 64M OS fully diluted -> this stock is very cheap right now.
Recovery should indeed match last purchase price $4.26, equaling $14 pre-dilution or around $1 pre-RS.
When you realize the progress being made incl. production facilities and many not-mentioned items .. you will know what you have bought.
Hint: High overall revenue w/o much collaboration cash, while margins are low due to pending profit shares payout with higher margins. Also: DSM impact 2018-2019.
PROJECTIONS GETTING WORSE
The Original Revenue Projection Was
$200M This Year And A $100M First-Half
Then That Was Recently Reduced To
$120M This Year And A $60M First-Half
But Now The Actual Numbers Show
$77M This Year And A $38M First-Half
They May Have Also Finished Collecting The
Rest Of Those Collaboration Revenues Due
From Last Year, At $13M. And Those Last
Final Payments Should Now Be Over With.
WORTH ONE DOLLAR AND FIFTY CENTS
With The Current Revenue Projections And
Shr Structure, Combined With The Available
Cash, Debt, And Low Margins... This Stock
Is Currently Worth Between $1.25 & $1.75 .
NO PROFIT ---> NO CASH
BAD DEBT ---> NO REVENUES
DILUTION ---> ANOTHER SPLIT
Their Primary Job Is To Trick You
JMO
I think you're on to something here. I'm not knowledgeable enough in AMRS to give an honest take however.
I will likely join soon.
Good luck Oger
Always fun watching shorts fry :)
White coal. What's your take? Great quarter! Huge shorting for long time.
Should bounce good tomorrow.
Good luck as well
Rad! Good luck. Hit me back when it gaps to $8..
Thx!
$4 Friday !!!!!!!
BUY LOW ---> SELL LOWER
T R A P P E D
:--- |
.... btw real cool of you. cool cat
"Easily a gap filler $8 and launch to low teens imo is brewing!"
OUCH!
Watch your wallets folks
FOUND A WAY OUT! BUY LOW, SELL HIGH!!
T2 deal out, concerning $4.26/sh to Vivo,
which is below the $6.30 anti-dilutive Warrants triggering point.
Followed a few convos about this and conclusion seems to be:
- the $7+ goal due to DSM & Co buying at that price is gone
- even more dilution using these Warrants, avg down
The end game is not so clear here, but for sure won't increase the value for common, esp since investors now have an incentive to even short this stop down for lower conversion - at least temporarily.
Regardless whether they do that - the company has dropped the other shoe with that offering to Vivo, where they promised not to do so - promised no surprise.
Depressing, sold all shares today.
They seemingly are in dire distress to require the $25M from Vivo, even triggering the anti-dilutive threshold.
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