Amyris Inc (fka AMRSQ)

[apollo1452]

Slapping the AMRS Ask on Friday 4/21/17

Bought on the Ask 1,085,266 shares(63%), sold on the Bid 581,430 shares(34%), traded in between 47,425 shares(3%).

[Sendme]

FWIW this has a textbook perfect short term set up for a trade with very little risk v reward. IMHO
Note: I only use the 5 minute chart for scalp trades/trend changes and not a confirmation of a trend reversal.


Another entry option


Notice the 60 minute chart is still Bearish but can offer areas of resistance/take profits. Could also keep a small lot of shares with a break even target in case this wants to run higher. Scale in and scale out.

[Spider Web]

SELLERS KEEP ON SELLING


Sold Last Wednesday
Trade Date: April 19, 2017
652,513 Shs Sold At $0.55
Filing Date: April 21, 2017

That's 2,289,443 Shs
For Just April So Far


Recent Insider Form-4 Selling
Oct 14, 2016 - April 19, 2017
20,053,445 Shs by Temasek/Maxwell
Nov 2016 - April 2017
126,407 Shs by Management
TOTAL SOLD = 20,179,852

Current April 2017 Outstanding Shs
Actual Outstanding Shs: About 288M
Adding Notes & Warrants: About 467M
( Sept 2015 The OS Was Only 140M )


ATM (At The Market) Dilution
The ATM could be another 100,000,000 Shs
diluted into the OS and Float at today's pps.

This 1st Qtr Will Be Bad
They won't even be able to stay ahead of their own dilution. And that's on top of all the debt, bad deals, and interest payments. They have no real cash. They are allowed to pay some of the interest on their debt with common shs, adding to the dilution. They won't meet their collaboration requirements, and will be forced to make those bad deals even worse. They will have to do a Reverse-Split.

Heading Down Into The 20's
Don't be fooled by little technical bounces on the chart. The Market Makers may take advantage of you that way. They know what's coming ... A 1-for-20 Reverse-Split.


Just My Opinion

[apollo1452]

Buy Volume Exceeds Sell Volume Thursday 4/20/17

Slapping the Ask 1,727,159 shares(49%), selling on Bid 1,693,008 shares(48%) & 89,924 shares(3%) exchanged hands in between...& the pps goes down 9%...lol

[XAVIPS]

Why?

[sh4dowtrader]

Good

[powerfullogic]

Class action lawsuit.

The end is near.

[Spider Web]

Sellers Set You Up Again

Sold Last Monday
Trade Date: April 17, 2017
1,636,930 Shs Sold At $0.65
Filing Date: April 19, 2017

They Still Want Out
Another 1,636,930 Shs


Recent Insider Form-4 Selling
Oct 14, 2016 - April 30, 2017
19,400,932 Shs by Temasek/Maxwell
Nov 2016 - April 2017
126,407 Shs by Management
TOTAL SOLD = 19,527,339

Current April 2017 Outstanding Shs
Actual Outstanding Shs: About 300M
Adding Notes & Warrants: About 400M
( Sept 2015 The OS Was 140,374,297 )


ATM (At The Market) Dilution
The ATM could be another 100,000,000 Shs
diluted into the OS and Float at today's pps.

This 1st Qtr Will Be Bad
They won't even be able to stay ahead of their own dilution. And that's on top of all the debt, bad deals, and interest payments. They have no real cash. They are allowed to pay some of the interest on their debt with common shs, adding to the dilution. They won't meet their collaboration requirements, and will be forced to make those bad deals even worse. They will have to do a Reverse-Split.

Heading Down Into The 20's
Don't be fooled by little technical bounces on the chart. The Market Makers may take advantage of you that way. They know what's coming ... A 1-for-20 Reverse-Split.


Just My Opinion

[Ko132]

Spider web, amyris never did a public offering, so to say they want our money is innacurate(even misleading).

[JLH2]

I'd expect something closer to 1:50

[Spider Web]

True Colors

Time After Time this Company has shown their True Colors. They seem to be playing off of the premise that there just must be an endless supply of gullible people out there to feed from.

This stock is going to 20 cents. They will try to trick you, and then dilute this as much as possible before doing a 1-for-20 Reverse-Split.


JMO

[andrewflying]

from his pockets

[Ko132]

Spider Web, how announcing partnership with Blue California and additional 50M$ revenue in the next 12-18 months considered a theft? from who did they steal?

[Spider Web]

BUNCH OF THEIVES

It's so funny how they always try
to pander to the dumbest of us.

Look how 90% of the After-Hours
Trades were at the close or below,
except for a few hundred at the
last minute. Giving the illusion that
it somehow went up in After-Hours.

What A Bunch Of Con-Artists

[RFB]

It smells just a rooten today...way too much volatility to play today and not nearly as bound....expect when it is all said and done, it to truly collapse to .30 range. Management team is playing lose and fast with the financials now, as indicated in all the recent filings and as such, soon the SEC/IRS will be taking a closer look and that is never a good thing, especially if they find something.....could easily see some management being carted away for white collar crap...

[RFB]

This thing reeked yesterday with all the matching trades and perpetual flow of 100-500 trades flowing through along with a certain market maker forcing the bid up despite a ton of bid action....

I quickly flipped it for a few K gain, seeing what was occurring, but was smart enough to jump ship at the top of the wave....

Chances are it can be flipped again, but to gloat on a P&D gain is foolish as it quickly vanishes...take the gains and smile behind the scenes...

[LORD_DILLY]

You smell that stank pank?

[rnoutlaw21]

touché

[powerfullogic]

It takes a strong father with tough love to help his sons become men. I enjoy helping people preserve their cash against sinister liars like Melo. I am the only friend some of these people have.

[rnoutlaw21]

Came here to see why the drop, no position. That was harsh, you find joy in putting people down or what?

[powerfullogic]

Do you also love the huge after hours drop? You lack the skills to invest in the market. Buy a bank CD and try not to lose it all. The crash is just getting started it'll be quick and brutal.

[ClayTrader]

* * $AMRS Video Chart 04-17-17 * *

Link to Video - click here to watch the technical chart video

[RFB]

Take your profit here as it is due for a breather and given the new prospectus introduced this morning....dilution about to get interesting....will be back to .60 extremely soon....

[ShadowSpy69]

Absolutely love this action! Riding 8200 from .51 avg. C'mon crack into those .70s

[RFB]

Dump your shares while you can on the recent bump as we have more dilution at hand thanks to offering this morning. RUN FOR THE HILLS...PUMP with the news, dump with the offering...management team here is textbook OTC....this company and its management team reek of stinky pinky!!!

[powerfullogic]

Melo switched the Asset sale to an 'in-kind' payment with Nikko I believe but he did not mention this until asked directly during a conference call. MOU with with CJ to increase factory production. Never happened. The current pump looks very juicy but I will be surprised if the wind isn't taken out of the sails when next earnings are worse than ever.

[Ko132]

powerfullogic, both MOU and asset sale actually happened. Amyris sold 33% of novvi jv for 30M$ and 50% of sqalane business for 20M$.

MOU was closed as well, amyris got 10M$ for the closing(look at Q4 transcript).

[powerfullogic]

The debt is insurmountable. Biossance will not put a dent in that. It's fun for Melo to pretend he can run a business that's actually profitable as the company winds down in dilution and toxic loans. Enjoy the pump, next quarter will send this to record lows. Remember the shell games about the asset sales and factory MOU's that never happen? Once a liar always a liar.

[Spider Web]

The Truth Is Right Here


They just put you together with a bunch
of Baloney, going into a 3 day weekend.

That post I wrote is not a bash, it's the truth.
Go ahead and call the Company and ask 'em.
They'll tell you how they just put you together.

It doesn't matter what kind of Widget is made.
Or who they might make collaborations with.
It's the numbers. And the numbers are Bad.

Pumping the Collaborators, or the Potential,
is all there is left to do. But both are separate
from the Company. The Collaborators have
the better end of the agreement stick. And
the "Potential" is just a "Mantra" that will
never materialize. But it's all you got to use.

They are in a hole that they can't get out of.
The Collaborators have them in a squeeze.
They will be chasing a profit forever and ever.
All there is to Pump is the "Potential" gimmick.
And that will never amount to anything, but the
lucky little pop you just had.

I can't believe they did this to unsuspecting
people... Going into an Easter Weekend :-- (


JMO

[BullishSwag]

$AMRS$

[sindram]

If someone posts such negative about a company like amrs this has to be a winner $$$

[sindram]

If someone posts auch negative about a company like amrs this has to be a winner $$$

[Ko132]

The best way to understand the nature of the profit share, is to see who are the partners for this profit share:

-Firmenich: reported revenue of 3.2 billion CHF(=3.2 billion $) for 2016, net sales revenue.

http://www.firmenich.com/en_INT/company/news/Firmenich-Annual-Results-Sustainability-Report-2016.html

-Takasago: have more than 3000 workers and more than 1.2 billion $ annual revenue.

Kuraray: reported annual revenue 244 billion yen or 2.24 billion $.

And so on with the other partners(Cray Valley,Guanfu ...).

The question to be asked is, if those companies accepted to pay for Amyris R&D(not cheap) and accepted to split with amyris the profits, what profit they project and how will it work?

If amyris will sell them the molecules at "Market price", they get no profit and all the proposition is not worth it.

Amyris has to sell them much than the market price, so the profit will be worth for them.


Lest say amyris produces one of the molecules for 10$/kg and the market price is 50$/kg(they have one molecule like that), how will it work?

Amyris will sell to Firmenich at 10$-15$/kg or even lower, Firmenich will sell it at 50$/kg, and the gross profit will be split between them and Amyris.

From this simple model - Amyris gets 10$/kg(production costs) + 20$/kg(profit share) and Firmenich gets 20$/kg of profit which should be acceptable for them considering they paid for the R&D and do the marketing.

If on the other hand, amyris was selling to Firmenich this molecule at close to market price, lets say 45$/kg, Firmenich had almost no profit and paying many million $ for Amyris R&D just does not make any sense.


In conclusion:

Amyris sell to partner well below the market price of the product(those are the product revenues we seen so far), and when the partner sells the products and gets the profit, big part of it goes to Amyris.

Important thing to not, for 2016 amyris did not get the profit share part from 26M$ of product sales, all what amyris got was 838K$.

If 838K$ was big part of the profit for 26M$ worth of product sales, no big company(with multi billion annual revenue) would sign for profit share + fully sponsoring the R&D.

[noconspiracies]

Value share model summary:
"Pay for our development costs and we'll make you an entire product pipeline for a chemical no one else can make/ no one else can make efficiently. After you give us the money upfront we'll produce it, you'll market it and sell it, and we'll split all the profits."

This is the point the trolls can't figure out how to refute- this company isn't about one product. It's not about two products, three, or four products, although four of their products are indeed proving to be better than anything else in their respective markets. It's about a continued ability to produce products in ways that never existed before, literally never existed before, because they are genetically engineering new organisms to make designer molecules and they are incredibly good at it.

[coopdog]

Could you help me understand their value share model? Thanks in advance.

[Spider Web]

READ THE "REAL" PR CAREFULLY


Right off the bat, they are trying to subtly mislead you into thinking that their Entire 1st Quarter has somehow delivered "Record Sales". This is the kind of stuff that they always try to pull.

Because, this PR is only referring to a Very Small Part of their total business. And it's the rest of the business that you really need to be worried about.

The Company has Enormous Bad Debt ($277M), Notes, Warrants, Poorly One-Sided Collaboration Deals, Continued Dilution (300M OS), and Low EPS Surprises (Neg 6 , to Neg 8 , to Neg 14 Cents)... When the EPS was suppose to go the other way. And Dilution was supposedly not going to happen either

Also, they are not afraid to use cleverly stated promotional word-tracks, that are protected under the SEC Safe Harbor & Forward-Looking Statements clause. Or, as some would refer to as: A License To Lie.

So, the PR tries to talk a Big Game, about a Very Small and almost insignificant revenue part of their business. They have no choice, really. Because, it's the only remote good thing that they have available to talk about. Too bad it's such a "Small Percentage" of their overall revenue stream.

They mention how Biossance is growing from less than 2% of their Product revenue in 2016. But they failed to mention that their 2016 product revenue was only $23.6M. And that the "Less Than 2%" part of that could actually mean anything, even One Dollar. Really... But at the maximum, no more than about $500K. That's a very "Open Ended Statement" to make. But typical of this Company.

So, when they suggest that the Small Biossance business is growing to more than "Double", you really have no clue as to what that "Double" is based on. For example... It could be as low as "One Dollar", or "One Bottle" of product, that then grew to "Two". But they instead cleverly stick to "Percentages", and words like "Double", instead of "The Real Numbers". GET IT ?

So, "Percentage Wise", they then proceed to make the claim of Growth. That it expects to be one of the fastest growing personal care businesses in the sector. But This is Absolute Baloney Statistical Verbiage. Because that is another "Open Ended Statement". Meaning: that if they just sold One Bottle of product, and the next Quarter they sold just Two Bottles ... They can then say they Grew the business a Whopping 100%. GET IT ?

Then they throw in a comment of how the Nutrition Business is also expanding significantly, with the Vitamin E Oil. Because they could not help killing two birds with one stone. But again, they don't dare define this "Growth" with "Real Numbers". Because, that would take the Thunder right out of this cleverly stated little Dog-n-Pony PR SHOW.

I am estimating that the true Revenue from Biossance is anywhere from Zero to $84K per month. And that little slice of life will not make one little dent in the Debt or Revenues that are needed. But then, also... Net Income and Profit is another BIG BAD STORY that you don't want to know anything about.

They claim that 2017 will bring them $200M in Revenues. And that's Total Revenue, which includes Product and any Upfront Collaboration money. That means $50M per Quarter. And That Is Not Going To Happen. Not Even Close.

But they just love taking your eye off the Ball, with irresponsible and possibly highly misleading propaganda tactics that are designed to possibly fool the masses, for Dilutive & Financial Survival Purposes.


JMO

[Spider Web]

FLUFF PR WAS MISLEADING

Pump-n-Dump Warning
edited


HERE IS THE DATA
1) Total 2016 Product Revenue = $26.3M
2) Biossance Was Less Than 2% = $500K
3) That Equals Only = $42K Per Month

They are only telling you the "Percentages",
because that sounds a "Whole Lot Better"
than telling you the small "Dollar Amounts",
which are even less than my $42K estimates.


THIS IS WHAT THEY SAY
They say that Biossance is growing from less
than 2% of "Product Revenue" in 2016, to more
than double "The Original Plan" for 2017.
* But they don't tell you what "The Original Plan" was !
Maybe only $1,000 of product was "The Original Plan" ?
* But Let's Just Give Them The Benefit Of The Doubt


CONFUSING TWO SEPARATE STATEMENTS
1) Biossance is growing from less
than 2% of "Product Revenue" in 2016 .
* Which Was Only About $42K Per Month

2) To double what was originally planned for 2017 .
* But they don't tell you what was originally
planned. And how or if it relates to the 1st Q .

So, if last year's Total was $500K, and then
that averages to about $42K per month. And
allowing "Double" to the benefit of the doubt :
* That Only Equals About $84K Per Month !

!!! At Most - That's Only $1M For All Of 2017 !!!


THIRD PARTY PROPAGANDA
Then they lay out those "Questionable" third-party
opinions and "Personal Accolades" about the product.
* They Are Clearly Trying To Put You Together Again

They are trying to make "Headlines" look good,
while not making a dent in any Revenues or Debt !


OLDEST TRICK IN THE BOOK
FIRST QUARTER WILL BE BAD
They are trying to use a "Percentage Game", by using Biossance.
And then trying to "Overlap" and percieve those percentages onto
the "Overall Quarter". To then try and confuse you into "Thinking"
that there will be a similar result in the "Overall Quarter Revenues".
But Total Quarter-1 Revenues will fall far short of $50M projections.


A G A I N - THEY ARE TRYING TO TRICK YOU

They Are Pumping Air - And Selling You Out


JMO

[ClayTrader]

* * $AMRS Video Chart 04-13-17 * *

Link to Video - click here to watch the technical chart video

[Ko132]

noconspiracies, they started Q1 with 10M$ from nikko JV to account and 3.8M$ from delayed shipment(Q4 -> Q1), So we started this quarter with 13.8M$ revenue. EPS expected for this quarter is (0.10) with 26M$ revenue total. Chance of beating this expectation should be high.

[noconspiracies]

I've never considered Biossance to be anything other than a bridge product. However, #1 at Sephora is nothing to scoff at, pretty amazing for a first try at beauty products. At the least it shows the production pipeline is capable of producing really nice quality. Really really nice quality.
Not so sure Q1 is going to be as bad as you say.

[Spider Web]

YOU ARE BEING PUT TOGETHER


FIRST QUARTER WILL BE BAD
They are trying to use a "Percentage Game", by using Biossance.
And then trying to "Overlap" and perceive those percentages onto
the "Overall Quarter". To then try and confuse you into "Thinking"
that there will be a similar result in the "Overall Quarter Revenues".
But Total Quarter-1 Revenues will fall far short of $50M projections.

A G A I N - THEY ARE TRYING TO TRICK YOU


HERE IS THE DATA
1) Total 2016 Product Revenue = $26.3M
2) Biossance Was Less Than 2% = $500K
3) That Equals Only = $42K Per Month

They are only telling you the "Percentages",
because that sounds a "Whole Lot Better"
than telling you the small "Dollar Amounts",
which are even less than my $42K estimates.

So, if last year's Total was $500K, and then
that averages to about $42K per month. And
then giving "Double" the benefit of the doubt :
That Only Equals About $84K Per Month !

At Most... That's Only $1M For All Of 2017


REVENUES WILL MISS PROJECTIONS
Their Revenue Projections For 2017 Are 200M .
That's $50M Per Qtr - They Will Not Get Close

Last Year They Averaged 6.6M Product Rev Per QTR
The Qtr-4 Product Revenue was the best at $11.5M .
They will be lucky to maintain that - Let alone $50M.


You Are Pumping Air - And They Are Selling


JMO

[noconspiracies]

I used to only understand the upsides of their business. Spiderweb certainly helped me with the negatives. Not sure he the exchange of information has been mutual, however.
Two weeks ago I asked if anyone would wager a price for end of day today- spiderweb was game enough to throw a post my way ("Welcome to the conspiracy channel'), which I much appreciated.
So, will we be over $1 in two weeks? Over $2?
I'm going to say that in just two weeks time we're going to hit $1.15. That's a stupid amount of increase, but the products warrant even more.

JMO.

[no shorts]

Back to $1+?

[treppy]

He's been here long enough to fully understand

[Ko132]

This PR has several points:

-Number one "Squalane + Peptide Eye Gel is the #1 selling eye product at SEPHORA.com"

Sephora has multi billion $ revenue:

https://www.referralcandy.com/blog/sephora-word-of-mouth-marketing/

-Number two, Vitmain E from farnesene is selling better than expected:

"At the same time, the company's nutrition business is also expanding significantly with better than expected introduction of Farnesene to Vitamin E oil sales in China. The cost advantage and performance of Amyris products is continuing to deliver significant disruption and growth opportunities for Amyris partners."

[coopdog]

Sorry you are not seeing the bigger picture.

[Spider Web]

THIS IS ANOTHER FLUFF PR

Pump-n-Dump Warning


Here Is Some Data
1) Total 2016 Product Revenue Was: $26.3M
2) Biossance Was Less Than 2%: $500K
3) That Equals Only: $42K Per Month

They are only telling you the "Percentages",
because that sounds a whole lot better than
telling you the "Dollar Numbers", which are
even less than my estimates.


This Is What They Say
They say that Biossance is growing from less
than 2% of "Product" Revenue in 2016, to more
than double the original plan for 2017.

But they don't tell you what is meant by
"what was originally planed". Maybe only
$1,000 of product was originally planned ?

But Let's Give Them The Benefit Of The Doubt


Confusing 2 Separate Statements
1) Biossance is growing from less
than 2% of "Product" Revenue in 2016.
Which was only about $42K per month.

2) To more than double what
was originally planned for 2017.
But they don't tell you what was originally
planned. And how or if it relates to the 1st Q.

So, if last year's Total was $500K, and then
that averages about to $42K per month. And
then giving the benefit of the doubt, that equals
only about $84K per month,

At Most... That's Only $1M For All Of 2017


Third Party Propaganda
Then the lay out "Questionable" 3rd party
opinions and "Personnal Accolades" about
the product. They are clearly trying to
put you together again.

They are trying to make "Headlines" look
good, while not making a dent in Revs or Debt.

They're trying to confuse a "Percentage Game"
with Biossance, and then trying to "Overlap"
that with the "Overall Quarter", to then try and
confuse you into "Thinking" that there will be a
similar result to the "Overall Quarter Revenues".
But Q1 Revs will fall far short of projections.
AGAIN


EOM

[coopdog]

Or I could even see an eventual buyout of Amyris by a big player (i.e - Biogen, J&J, etc.) If their sweetener is a homerun then you could argue one of the soda companies maybe gobbling them up. Just too much going on with them now that they finally left fuels and soley focused and scaling up farnesene/products/collaborations/value share.

Some of their partners and collaborators are huge and world class. The writing is on the wall for those that want to see it.

[coopdog]

One of the biggest no brainer stocks I have seen in awhile. Been accumulating the last few months. Will hold for 2-3 years is the plan when this could be trading in many dollars instead of this laughable level. Sometimes it just takes the market awhile to catch on.

[Ko132]

Forgot to mention, Amryis has 1.2 million liter production plant with production capacity of up to 40 kilo ton of product a year.

Plant of this size will cost 70M$ to 100M$ to built and it is wholy owned by amyris.

Amyris owns 1 Demo plants(5000 liter) and 2 pilot plants(500 liter) as well.