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Finally get some action here eh? 
Triple Bottom
:-----)
$3.75 to $4 coming...
Bipolar Share Structure and EV
As stated multiple times, current EV valuation is ridiculous low, missing the $480M EV @ $5+. How come?
Thanks to 01, he posted some statements from IR, see snippet below. Not actually news here, but the lack of company being able to confidently state they can and are willing to avoid future debt conversions might the the cause of depressed trades here in this low channel $2 - $2.50 (ignoring the $1.60 line).
So the game seems to be early investor for cheap with another risk of dilution versus buying safe post all major dilutions and risks in 2019.
It is a bipolar situation for sure and would love to read more opinions about this situation here for a proper debate.
up to challenge $3-3.15
yes, $3.10 is the next post Ichimoko support cloud after the break through, as shown in the daily chart.
$3.28/sh (see P/S Today multiples) would be a first step towards EV recovery to $389M P/S 1.5 EV/R 4 - still far below company's value. $4.26 should be minimum today @ EV $433M P/S 2 EV/R 4.5.
Of course, such recovery may not happen in just one day, but usually fundamentals have the upper hand in the end.
Mind that $143M has already been payed in via T-1/2 and up to $241M will be invested, all Cash Warrants converted at $5.30.
As of today, $2.66/sh is $119M MCAP below already invested cash and far below the total. See previously posted fundamental sheet. This is now traded below new re-capitalization, a joke!
Just to match the full re-capitalization of $240M and 63.37M OS, stock should be traded at $3.80. Since this is only for 67.24% of the company, 100% would be $5.64 per share. And look, that is roughly about the average being payed in T-1/2 offering!
Here the T-1 and T-2 investment overview again
Accumulation, Coiling Indicators ..
Obviously manipulated down on relative low volume.
can't even hold $2.50 ugghhh
I FEEL GOOD ABOUT TODAY HERE AT AMRS!!!
JMO
Triple Bottom!
The Struggle Continues, AMRS Shall State end of Dilution
I can add the following findings regarding insecurity of investors and the short thesis:
- $4.26 is the next T-1 T-2 AD Warrants threshold.
- TAB R&D Noted of $3.7M to be payed until EOY '17. If done in cash great, if using equity at lowered conversion price down it goes.
- $20.7M 10% pa interest Guanfu Credit left, which could be payed in equity at 90% VWAP of 90d closing price as well. Same thing here, if using equity, down it goes.
Above are two potential triggers for lowering the T-1 T-2 Cash-Warrant conversion prices, which is truly feared. I spoke with one long term short holder at $3.50 and she is using this 'instrument'.
The Vivo deal already brought down the conversion price and triggered AD Warrants with DSM's blessing - might have been even their requirement to average down further.
Now the price tag for them is at $5.30 for conversions.
What poor retail surely needs to know from the company is, whether they will pay down the mentioned debt in cash and end the dilution spiral reducing common's stake in the company.
If that can be assure by the company, the awaited recovery at least around $5.30 matching purchase average should work out.
It is a struggle between trust, opportunity and deception.
Especially deception plays a big role in here, some even thought T-1 would have been offered above $17/sh not doing the dilutive math in detail, bringing it down to $6.30. Now - again - we are at $5.30. Tough decisions and chart seems to capture just that.
wth is going on with shorts here?
Spider Web, so you might know as a previous short?
Daily short volume increasing, buying decreased again.
Dude on ST just showed the half day candles and it looks similar to the pre-plunge pattern, down until mid/end lunch, then up on little volume.
Just some 'short aspect' brainstorming, what negative catalysts could be in the pot regarding to keep this from recovering?
- Market not appreciating the much higher purchase price yet.
- The lawsuit?
- Assuming that the proceeds won't make it up until 2019 EOY and hence further dilution will happen?
- Other negative regulatory updates?
Well, for me I stick with the recovery trade back up to $5.64/sh avg purchase price. Just a question of when, but may re-test $2.20 until then. Let's see end of week.
Who puts their money where their mouth is? (revised)
Assuming 21M OS, they bought:
- already: 24.22M shares, 54% of company @ $5.91/sh
- with Cash Warrants max: 42.62M shares, 67% of company @ $5.64/sh
DSM already converted all of the preferred into common shares, they had a look into the books before the deal and don't need the preferred privilege for fears of a bankruptcy. There will be none. Vivo also bought 2.83M common shares and will convert the 3.04M on 10/7.
All in all, this is like a 54 - 67% buyout of the company at $5.60/sh - $5.90/sh or $143M - $241M and the stock shall move accordingly.
Note that the full purchase proceeds incl. Cash Warrants does cover the whole debt payments of the company of $227M (10-Q Note 5 Details), see below.
Also attached the adjusted fundamentals & modeled 3Q17 and 4Q18,
nice job zeroone01.
PS: Lowered purchase price due to adjusted Cash Warrant conversion price down to $5.30/sh. Also the T-2 Cash Warrants were missed.
+++
Who puts their money where their mouth is?
Assuming 20M OS, they bought:
- already: 23.77M shares, 54% of company @ $5.97/sh
- may buy up-to: 34.23M shares, 64% of company @ $6.41/sh
That is high above current market price, who needs an analyst with this huge purchase of confidence?
Note that all gets converted on 10/7 into common shares above marked price and none will sell of course.
DSM already converted all of them into common shares, they had a look into the books before the deal and don't need the preferred or warrants privilege for fears of a bankruptcy. There will be none. Vivo also bought 2.83M common shares and will convert the rest on 10/7.
All in all, this is like a 54 - 64% buyout of the company at $6 - $6.40 and the stock shall move accordingly.
As posted earlier on SA and ST, here are the purchase details:
Hey, Clay, not even willing to see resistance and RSI 'eh?
Just mumbling about your 30 minute chart of TWO DAYS 2.10 support and whether that poor weak stock will hold its knee jerk reaction. I love your obvious style, your guys in the red paint?
Maybe you should try TA even for once?
Yes, we do use the daily chart Sir.
RSI still super low, bounced off lower BB,
was rejected on the 8ema (maybe tell your trolls the meaning of the 8ema for once?).
On the 5min, 15min and yes, 30min, 8ema finally held below the candles for 1.5 days. What does that mean Sir? Yes, bullish reversal.
Also, it is not 2.10, but 2 - 2.20 range which should hold,
i.e. maintaining at least partially the bullish engulfing candle.
I personally will watch out for 2.20 support, just in case.
Resistance is the 8ema 2.48 for obvious reasons, bears don't like to see stock in an uptrend. Then the actual resistance of 2.50 produced by last 8 trading days.
After 2.50 is broken, the 20MA and MBB 3.22 shall be reached quickly and a dramatic rise shall occur.
I hear 'em already, 'w/o news it P&D', while a plunge w/o news is just fine :)
News are already out, great 2Q17 and the premium offering, sold 54% of company @ 5.97. Maybe even more at 6.41. But who cares about the important evaluation, who puts money where their mouth is.
No thanks Mr Captain Non-Obvious, but surely we are used to volatility and will take advantage of the shorts Monday on the attempt to bring this down. Some longs might even 'short' themselves, but only to cover and buy more just above your telegraphed covering price target, creating a nice inflection point around 10:30am? Maybe earlier?. This stock always trades under lots of distress, used to it - not losing.
Copying a nice chart as posted recently .. have fun.
RSI lower-double-bottom turnaround play
(re-post of this colorful chart from ST)
Suggestion is, we are at a similar point as of 3/8,
which produced a lower bottom as of 2/2,
having a higher RSI.
Now on 8/16, we have a lower bottom and slightly higher RSI
compared to 6/21. Period is a bit stretched due to ER.
Also see the Ichimoko cloud removed resistance.
The above may conclude that we are becoming ready to a reversal again soon, if not even tomorrow.
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