Allied Irish Banks (AIB)

[Blckcat5000]

Stocks like these move on speculation, rumors and overall trend of the EU market. Here is a positive spin on AIB,

"Europe had to bail out Greece, and now all eyes turn to Portugal as the next domino to fall. Moody's just downgraded the country's debt, and observers expect a bailout soon. Banco Santander's (NYSE: STD ) Portuguese unit, Banco Santander Totta, had sidestepped a previous downgrade of banking interests by the rating agency; this time, it wasn't so lucky. Ireland just nationalized much of its banking system, folding all financial institutions into just two banks, Allied Irish Bank (NYSE: AIB ) and Bank of Ireland (NYSE: IRE ) , thus guaranteeing their survival."

This week has been great for the NYSE, the next major date for AIB/IRE is June 2011. So, I'm going to enjoy the run, however be cautious this weekend with our gov't economic ambiguity... today should be a good day!

[invest2win]

I guess no one is listening as it is taking off AGAIN.

[mlkrborn]

warning; dont get trapped into it!
The Irish Times - Wednesday, April 6, 2011
AIB soars despite imminent stock dilution
In this section »



CAROLINE MADDEN

Iseq: 2,948.25 (–4.03) Settlement date: April 8th

BIZARRE TRADING in AIB and Bank of Ireland’s US lines left Dublin brokers baffled yesterday.

AIB moved ahead by 10 cents to 33 cents in a jump that was described by one trader as “just ridiculous”, given the “guillotine” of impending stock dilution “hanging over its neck”.

“It makes no sense to me at all,” he said.

Volumes in AIB and Bank of Ireland, the two future “pillars” of the Irish banking sector, were not particularly noteworthy on the Irish stock market. The real trading took place in the ADR (American depositary receipt) lines of both names, with massive volumes of shares changing hands in the US.

In 2.5 hours of trading in the afternoon, some 12 million AIB ADRs were traded, which is equivalent to 120 million ordinary shares on the Irish market. Bank of Ireland was a similar story, with 23 million ADR shares traded, which equates to just under 100 million Irish shares.

It is believed these trades were mainly carried out by private investors, rather than institutions, but brokers struggled to see the logic behind the counterintuitive interest in the two stocks.

As a result of the heavy trading, Bank of Ireland’s share price was volatile, but it finished the day down about two cents at 32 cents.

[invest2win]

Thanks for the info and your outlook!

[Blckcat5000]

I read some interesting data this morning while watching worldwide exchange at 0200 PST. The Irish govt is planning to nationalize the smaller institutions, which will be disolved into the two remaining tiers (AIB/IRE). IRE has until June, 2011 to come up with the capital it needs to stay clear of total gov't control. Analysts have compared it to GM, in that the gov't wont let that sector fail, but If i recall, GM's stock was renamed GMGMQ, in which GM's management urged investors to STAY CLEAR of GMGMQ stock, in that is would be valueless. And GMGMQ was pinksheets and had zero value. Then fall of 2010 the stock relisted at $26-29 per/share. Now analysts project GM will fair well. So, WE DON'T WANT THIS to happen, cuz we'll all lose. Lets hope AIB/IRE stock continues to climb, increasing banks spending/assets to help facilitate a recovery. I'm holding both until 1st week of June, still closely monitoring. I've had a very good past 3 business days, so my hopes is that is will stay strong. BTW, STAY AWAY from Chineses small cap companies... so many scandals and falsified quarterly reports. I'm clear of any small cap CHINESE companies. I'm long on SLW.

[proftstocksny2]

Enough in the opinion of many which is why investors are moving back in. Still more to raise, but stress tests showed not as much. They will sell assets. Assets of other banks will be rolled into it. The bank is about 93% nationalized already...not much more left to dilute. Up from here.

[f484]

Any chance of a bankruptcy claim here or has the EU pumped enough capital into them to keep them afloat?

[f484]

I've been doing quite a bit of DD on this company and I'm having trouble deciding what I believe the future of it to be.. What are your thoughts on the next two years?

[invest2win]

Does that mean you think it will keep making a run up or not?

[Blckcat5000]

I've been watching this stock since spring 09, and perhaps now we've finally hit bottom. Although the gov't has majority influence with AIB, and some with IRE, AIB has shown back-to-back 20% gains. This stock usually has good days back-to-back, but be cautious it can drop quickly. This morning i had a stop-loss at 4.75 and sure enough it closed at 4.09. So, I got lucky considering I was in at 2.85 from last week. I am back in with both AIB/IRE. The stress tests didn't seem to negatively effect these stocks and some global investors are saying now is the time to buy in on Irish debt. There is a lot of upside here if these banks can avoid 100% nationalization following this new 2 Tier banking system. I am all for long-term capital gains, but with these stocks, you may just take what you can get.

[mlkrborn]

AIB, BoI won't move small loans direct to NAMA: ALBK 0.27 vs IRE 0.32 euros!

April 5 2011 reuters

Stocks

Allied Irish Banks Public Ltd Co
ALBK.I
€0.27
+0.04+17.83%
9:18am EDT

Bank of Ireland
BKIR.I
€0.32
-0.02-6.18%
7:21am EDT

DUBLIN | Tue Apr 5, 2011 6:35am EDT

DUBLIN (Reuters) - Allied Irish Banks and Bank of Ireland will not transfer some 12 billion euros (10 billion pounds) worth of loans directly to the country's "bad bank" as agreed under an EU/IMF deal, a finance department spokeswoman said on Tuesday. Under an 85 billion euro bailout agreed late last year, Ireland had agreed to extend its purge of risky commercial property loans from lenders to include land and development loans valued at under 20 million euros from its two main banks.

The banks will instead run the loans, with a book value of 12 billion euros, down themselves as part of a huge sector-wide deleveraging process announced last week aimed at trimming lenders down to size and easing them off emergency ECB funding.

"The sub 20 million euro land and development loans in both Bank of Ireland and AIB that had previously been signalled to transfer to NAMA have been identified by the central bank as non-core assets," the spokeswoman said.

A spokesman for the department added that this would not specifically rule the assets out from eventually being sold to the National Asset Management Agency (NAMA), Ireland's state-run bad bank.

NAMA had previously said that including the sub-20 million euro loans, it would spend 37 billion euros acquiring loans with a nominal value of 88 billion euros at the end of its purchase programme, amounting to a discount of 58 percent.

(Reporting by Padraic Halpin; Editing by Carmel Crimmins, David Holmes and Jane Merriman)

[mlkrborn]

investoman;
Very good take.. i agree.!

[Da Stock Alpaca]

Hopefully the upward momentum will continue. It still pains me that I bought so many $3s before they adjusted the number of shares that we all own. Oh well once this gets back to the $20+ range it's really all the same effect :).

[Investorman]

On the bright side, Ireland's banking plan ensures that Allied Irish and B of I will remain the key players in Ireland's banking system. But the big question is what the future will look like for equity shareholders. With the government continuing to pour money into the banks, it remains to be seen how much shareholders will still own when the dust settles. The consensus view seems to be that B of I has a pretty good chance of remaining at least partly in private hands, while Allied Irish -- which is already 92% owned by the government -- may have a tougher time avoiding full nationalization.

[mlkrborn]

12:29PM Allied Irish Banks confirms it completed sale of stake in Bank Zachodni WBK S.A. (AIB) 2.82 +0.42 : Co confirms that it has completed the disposal of its 70.36% stake in Bank Zachodni WBK S.A. to Banco Santander S.A. (STD) and the sale of its 50% stake in BZ WBK AIB Asset Management S.A. following the settlement of the tender offer by Santander and completion of the transaction. AIB received total sale proceeds of approximately EUR3.1 billion which has generated a benefit of c. EUR2.5bn equivalent to core tier one capital.

12:19PM LogMeIn confirms U.S. Court grants co's motion for summary judgment of non infringement in patent infringement case (LOGM) 48.57 +6.41 : The court indicated a written order will follow. The court indicated it has removed the May 2nd trial from the case calendar. (see 11:31 comment)

[Investorman]

Looking at today's price increase, apparently the market thinks things are looking up.

[Buell]

Whooo Hoooo

Allied Irish Banks PLC’s /quotes/comstock/13*!aib/quotes/nls/aib (AIB 2.82, +0.42, +17.50%) U.S.-listed shares gained 15% a day after Ireland said it would restructure its banking sector, leaving Allied Irish Banks and Bank of Ireland /quotes/comstock/13*!ire (IRE 1.75, 0.00, 0.00%) as the country’s two major banks.

[Buell]

Whooo Hoooo

Allied Irish Banks PLC’s /quotes/comstock/13*!aib/quotes/nls/aib (AIB 2.82, +0.42, +17.50%) U.S.-listed shares gained 15% a day after Ireland said it would restructure its banking sector, leaving Allied Irish Banks and Bank of Ireland /quotes/comstock/13*!ire (IRE 1.75, 0.00, 0.00%) as the country’s two major banks.

[mlkrborn]

AIB intraday's range $2.00-2.50.. Trading tho. Strange. IRE halted.

[mlkrborn]

AIB Capital Update
Date : 03/31/2011 @ 1:35PM
Source : MarketWire
Stock : Allied Irish Banks, p.l.c. (AIB)
Quote : 2.48 -0.09 (-3.50%) @ 2:44PM

AIB Capital Update
Allied Irish (NYSE:AIB)
Intraday Stock Chart

Today : Thursday 31 March 2011
Click Here for more Allied Irish Charts.





Allied Irish Banks, p.l.c. ("AIB") [NYSE:AIB] notes the announcements made today by the Central Bank of Ireland (CBI) and the Minister for Finance (the Minister).

Following completion of the Prudential Capital Assessment Review (PCAR) and the Prudential Liquidity Assessment Review (PLAR), the CBI requires AIB to raise equity capital of EUR9.1bn in addition to the requirement of c. EUR4.2bn deferred from February 2011. Of the total increased capital requirement of EUR13.3n an amount of EUR1.4bn may be in the form of contingent capital.

The Board of AIB fully appreciates the continued strong support of the Irish Government to the bank and its commitment to ensure that all of the capital required by AIB will be raised. This support reaffirms AIB's central position in the Irish banking landscape. AIB will continue to work with the State to determine the optimum sequence to generate the committed capital in line with the proposals in the Minister's speech.

The significant amount of capital to be raised by the bank is designed to definitively assure all stakeholders, including depositors, other customers, staff and investors, that AIB will continue to be a systemic part of the Irish banking sector.

The very strong capital base that results will enable AIB to provide long term support to its customers and play an active role in the recovery of the Irish economy. We are developing initiatives that ensure customers' needs are facilitated and help businesses and home owners under stress.

The increased capital base will accelerate the bank's own recovery and return to profitability so that we can reward taxpayers for their investment in AIB.

In addition to the commitments announced today, the Government has reconfirmed that all deposits remain fully guaranteed by the State under the deposit guarantee scheme and the ELG scheme.

The capital requirement for AIB has been determined by PCAR base and stress case scenarios. These scenarios test the bank's capability to absorb future losses in adverse and extreme conditions but are not forecasts of future performance. The assumptions and methodology driving the scenarios have been outlined today by the CBI in its announcement. These industry wide assumptions and methodology drive capital requirements that are set at levels intended to restore confidence in the resilience of AIB and the other banks tested, even in extremely adverse and unlikely future conditions. The minimum core tier one capital ratio required for banks will be 10.5% in the base case and 6% in the stress case.

AIB's specific and incurred but not reported (IBNR) balance sheet provisions were c. EUR5.2bn and c. EUR2.1bn respectively at 31(st) December 2010. These provisions include a bad debt charge of c. EUR4.5bn in 2010. (These figures exclude both provisions and charges related to NAMA loans, which have been separately provided for in line with previously announced discounts).

The PCAR stress testing was carried out by BlackRock Solutions on behalf of the CBI. The approach to determine the bank's capital requirement included (in both base and stress scenarios) the combined effect of the following:

* An assessment of operating performance and losses that may emerge over the 2011 - 2013 three year period

+

* An overlay from bringing forward an element of losses in the years after 2013 back in to the 2011 - 2013 period

+

* A further overlay buffer for other future losses, events or shocks over the entire lifetime of loans.





In addition, BlackRock also used the following modelling assumptions:

* Irish residential mortgages

- AIB's arrears profile has been averaged with the overall industry

- negative equity, not unemployment, as the main driver of default.

- assumed widescale repossessions and forced sales, which are not the practices in Ireland or many other countries, resulting in highly elevated model loss rate.





* Commercial real estate

- minimal recovery in real estate prices

- modelled rental income declines do not recognise sustainable income / cashflow from actual lease agreements.

Accounting rules prohibit AIB and other banks making provisions for future expected losses. However, as required by the CBI and using the same macro economic data as used by BlackRock, AIB submitted its own expectation of 2011 - 2013 loan losses. Naturally, this expectation was materially less than the outcome of the PCAR exercise (copy available atwww.centralbank.ie), given the key differences between the methodology and assumptions used by AIB and the above described approach adopted by BlackRock.

Combined provisions and pro-forma core tier one capital* at 31 December 2010, following required recapitalisation would be c. EUR26bn. The core tier one ratio at the same date would be c. 21%.

The Board of AIB considers these provisions and reserves will represent a highly prudent and resilient base from which the bank will support its customers and economic revival.

The CBI also announced today that following completion of its PCAR, AIB is required to reduce its loan to deposit ratio to 122.5% by the end of 2013.

Proposed combination with Educational Building Society (EBS)

As announced by the Minister today, it is intended that AIB will be combined with EBS, subject to State aid and any regulatory approvals required. AIB welcomes this proposal and will update the market in due course as details are finalised and developed further.

AIB plans to make presentations to analysts and media on 12(th) April which will incorporate commentary on the bank's 2010 preliminary results to be announced that day. These presentations will also provide an update on AIB's strategic review of its business and restructuring plans.

Further information in the form of frequently asked questions and answers and customer contact numbers are available on our website at www.aibgroup.com.

* includes contingent capital

-


Alan Kelly

General Manager, Corporate Services

AIB Group

[DAD2]

Might be a bad week imo.



http://blogs.wsj.com/source/2011/03/18/bank-stress-tests-will-disappoint-again/?KEYWORDS=irish+banking

[Buell]

Interesting

http://www.benzinga.com/trading-ideas/small-cap/11/03/934676/top-4-small-cap-stocks-in-the-financial-sector-with-the-highest

Allied Irish Banks plc (NYSE: AIB) had $7.09 billion in total cash and $87.80 billion in total debt for the latest quarter.

[Investorman]

I was referring to the ADR price. If you divide the current price by 5 you will get the equivilant price for before they adjusted the ADR. The ADR used to represent 2 shares and now it represents 10.

[mlkrborn]

BKIR.I higher than IRE.I: 0.30 vs 0.29 euros. go figure it?

[mlkrborn]

Investo man;
If i may! It is 0.30 euro today in in ireland despite news about heavy borrowing from irish banks from the central bank.. How could it be 0.62 cents presplit.. Can you show how you arrived at it?
tia
GL
mlkr

[Investorman]

The current price is the equivilant of $0.62 before the R/S. Today's news on AIB isn't making things look any better.

[mlkrborn]

AIB $3.15 getting below its irish value may be? The lowest post R/S level was $2.88 briefly.

[mlkrborn]

AIB, Bank of Ireland plan internal splits-report


Related News

* Ireland aims to woo Europe with fiscal obedience
Sun, Mar 6 2011
* Ireland plea for EU leeway gets cool response
Fri, Mar 4 2011
* Ireland's Kenny pleads for EU flexibility
Fri, Mar 4 2011
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Fri, Mar 4 2011
* Trichet flags April ECB rate rise, stuns markets
Thu, Mar 3 2011

Stocks

Allied Irish Banks PLC
ALBK.I
€0.26
+0.01+5.20%
7:00am EST

The Governor & Co Of The Bank Of Ireland
BKIR.I
€0.31
-0.00-0.32%
6:58am EST

DUBLIN, March 7 | Mon Mar 7, 2011 4:13am EST

DUBLIN, March 7 (Reuters) - Allied Irish Banks (ALBK.I) and Bank of Ireland (BKIR.I) have submitted plans to the central bank that would see their assets separated into core and non-core operations, the Irish Independent newspaper said on Monday.

Ireland has pledged to restructure and shrink its banking sector under an EU/IMF bailout deal to end the lenders' dependence on emergency funding from the European Central Bank and its own central bank.

Citing banking sources, the Irish Independent said there was no clarity on how the splits would be achieved or whether a new finance minister would request a change in strategy.

"We've submitted plans but talks are ongoing: absolutely nothing is set in stone yet," one source was quoted as saying.

A spokeswoman for AIB declined to comment. No one from Bank of Ireland was immediately available to comment.

The central bank is currently reviewing the sector as it conducts fresh tests on the lenders' capital and liquidity levels.

A new coalition government made up of the centre-right Fine Gael party and the centre-left Labour party will meet for the first time on Wednesday.

A source told Reuters on Sunday that Fine Gael's finance spokesman Michael Noonan would be appointed finance minister. [ID:nLDE72507J]

Fine Gael want Europe and the IMF to give Ireland's banks more time to offload non-core assets to avoid a fire-sale that would trigger more losses.

The new government has postponed injecting around 8 billion euros into AIB, Bank of Ireland and the EBS Building Society [EBSBS.UL] until after the stress tests are completed.

Ireland has already poured some 46 billion euros into its banks, whose reckless lending fuelled a property bubble that has brought the economy to its knees.

In an interview in January, the central bank governor Patrick Honohan told Reuters that Irish banks' capital requirements may rise once the stress tests are completed at the end of this month. [ID:nSLAPCE7NH]

(Reporting by Carmel Crimmins; editing by Sophie Walker)

[DAD2]

Details of the deal.


http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Troubled-Anglo-Irish-Bank-apf-741644596.html?x=0&.v=4

[DAD2]

Todays take over of Anglo Irish is going to hurt and kill the share price imo, the added debt load will keep new investors away for a lot longer!!

[Nilbud]

I'd have been pissed - I'm parked in IRE

[langlui]

nah..haha.. i don't think AIB would pull such a run intraday.. longer term maybe..but maybe 5 years time :P

[Nilbud]

Ahhh - That makes sense - Thought I missed a good run - I feel better now :)

[langlui]

R/S

[Nilbud]

AIB last trade in AH $3.29 - Up 332% is that right???

[dLooted]

Not too worried about this one.

Just treat it as an investment, not a pair of dice on the craps table.

Come back in a couple years and we should be all right. Doubling money in two years ain't that bad . . . .unless the worst isn't over!

[DAD2]

When will it be the time to start adding position from what i figure we are getting close to another 52 week low.


Anyone thinking of pulling the trigger down here??


http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=AIB&p=D&yr=0&mn=3&dy=0&id=p67279467483

[Buell]

Crap Stock

shit one way right down!

[mlkrborn]

Intraday $3.16-3.47 in NYC . 0.25 euro in London. Post R/S ratio of 10x0.25 euro = 2.50 euros, which equals to 3.50 dollars in NYC! It is $3.17 now and it seems it is trading less than its corresponding value in london..Wonder if 'cause of adverse impact of R/Ss in general.

[mlkrborn]

Allied Irish Banks, p.l.c. Ratio Change for ADS Holders
marketwire



Related Quotes
Symbol Price Change
ALBK.L 0.25 -0.01
Chart for ALLIED IRISH BANKS

Press Release Source: Allied Irish Banks, p.l.c. On Monday February 7, 2011, 2:09 pm EST

DUBLIN, IRELAND--(Marketwire - 02/07/11) -


To maintain an appropriate price range for the Allied Irish Banks, p.l.c, ("AIB") (NYSE:AIB - News) American Depositary Shares ("ADSs") representing Ordinary Shares trading on the New York Stock Exchange ("NYSE"), AIB intends to change the current ratio of one (1) ADS representing two (2) Ordinary Shares to one (1) ADS representing ten (10) Ordinary Shares.

This follows upon notification by the NYSE to AIB that the average closing price of an ADS was less than $1.00 over a consecutive 30 day trading period and was thus considered "below criteria" by the NYSE under its continued listing standards.

The change in ratio referred to above is intended to be taken by AIB in order to remedy the situation and restore AIB's compliance with the NYSE's continued listing standards.

[Buell]

Shit almost dropped my coffee!


1/5 spit! I seen the 400% and was like.....WHAT then I remembered the split P/R

I wonder what this will make the stock do now. I wonder if it will retreat or investors will be happy the treat of being de-listed is gone

[primarywatcher]

PreMarket $3.30 down 13%...

[Taurus]

AIB London
http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=ALBK.L&ql=0

[Investorman]

I don't know the London ticker symbols.

[mlkrborn]

investoman; what are ticker symbols in london after delisting from london stock exchange! I know ticker sybol in irish stox exchange.

[Investorman]

It isn't a reverse split. You will have fewer ADRs but they will represent the same number of real shares of AIB.

[mlkrborn]

No injection till elections over!
http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/breaking/2011/0209/breaking48.html

[Pennybuster]

i hate reverse splits,

[Recognizer]

If they do an RS whats my 10,000 shares[how many and pps] turn into?

[primarywatcher]

^%%$...wonder what's up their sleeve for IRE...

gltya!