Advantage Lithium Corp. (fka AVLIF)

[MikeyInTheD]

Still trading about 20 cents cheaper than current fair value. Any positive news could be a quick 25% gain for smart investors who get in here. I bought in the 70s so I’m looking at a paper loss right now. No doubt this climbs to $1.20 mid 2019.

[tikotiko]

Announcement of economic assessment for $400M and 20k ton/yr plant. A nice numbers exercise, but my take is that they either pump the brine to Orocobre, which is way cheaper (perhaps <$20M?) or they get bought by a bigger fish. Galaxy’s recent $280M sale of one of its tenements to POSCO provides a basis/precedent for such sale. We shall see...

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/advantage-lithium-corp-announces-positive-040500274.html

[tikotiko]

I bought a few more at $0.625 and kept some cash to buy more if it drops to the $0.5s. Important announcements are coming soon (probably this month)

[tikotiko]

I think there is a very good chance you may hit this one on the nail NW2. I am waiting/hoping for it to fall just below $0.62 (your $0.80 Canadian approximately) to buy more, before the next set of announcements coming very soon (weeks).
Thank for posting this.

[nowwhat2]

Advantage Lithium as they trade on the CSE :



Why red not green ?.....That's an Orocobre trade ???

https://www.marketwatch.com/press-release/tsx-announcement-2018-07-26-191845814






Also looked at them 2 1/2 months ago : See post which this replies to



Well ?....It failed to hold that $1.00 dollar level....went DOWN thru their LAC equivilent Orange Line (not yet drawn) which pushed it as low as .75


Now The Black Line (top chart needs to hold)


Is how things look appear to ME . . . .


Best wishes !

[MikeyInTheD]

Into oversold territory now. I’m adding to my position below .575. The price is going to snap back to .85 quickly when the story and positive news is finally realized by the larger investment community.

[tikotiko]

New $12M financing announcement:

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/advantage-lithium-announces-12-million-040500419.html

[tikotiko]

This wa just announced. It is the Confirmation of the previously announced resource estimate from late May.

http://www.advantagelithium.com/news-and-media/company-news/index.php?content_id=128

[tikotiko]

Hi Mikey, I agree with you. I added this week and my average is currently $0.79. Better days will come soon.
Good luck to you and to all invested in AVLIF!

[MikeyInTheD]

Selloff is overdone. I think we see .80 before we see .55. There are no solid facts pushing the stock down. Everything is positive with the company and potential revenue stream. Get in while it’s on sale. I may add to my already full position because this is just so cheap here. I’m in at .72 average and looking to double my money in 12 months still.

[tikotiko]

Bloodbath continues. Yikes!

[nowwhat2]

Thanks tiko - Hey nice link - Lots of Aussie symbols (for use within Bigcharts for gauging North American pre-open sentiment) !



hey - More I look around (which isn't much), it APPEARS as though the Lithiums MAY BE finding Support.....SQM = just 1 for example :




Until then however, it looks like a Buy (albeit just barely - that H&S could "take over")



Several other Liths also appear to be finding Support.....For eg.





Here's a brief history of my tracking "Millennial" : (otc : MLNLF)


May 4th : This thing looked like it was ready to take off :





May 23rd : (3 weeks later) ; Yup !





June 1st : Pulled back (closed that gap) then shot up 13 %




.

[tikotiko]

I think that the recent sharp increase in the SP already factored the resource upgrade. I clearly missed the run due to both lack of funds at the time and my slow reaction (Yes, I did not buy the rumor and sold the news...). There was probably some profit taking afterwards, but not enough to entice me to buy more shares. I will definitely buy more if it drops again to the low $0.7s or $0.6s. However, I am not sure it will get there and it is possible that the current high $0.7s is all that we may get for a dip.

The only other thing that could have been a factor is that Advantage is probably affected by its larger partner Orocobre, whose stock began to fall about 10 days ago. This may have had some effect on Advantage’s stock since the most recent period when both stocks dropped coincides. I also noticed that the percent of shorters has been increasing lately in Orocobre, which could be part of the reason for its decrease in SP (see link below). I am not too concerned because my position in LAC is still relatively small and I plan to accumulate slowly as I see good dips. I think this stock will do well long term, but there may be some good trading opportunities for you along the journey. Please let me know if you see anything in your chart radar, while also keep in mind upcoming announcements (e.g., economic estimate, a new updated resource estimate, etc.).

As for the wells, several of them are over 400 m deep and the new drilling campaign is focusing on exploring the deeper sediments. I also wished the drilling would move a bit faster, but it is what it is.

https://www.shortman.com.au/stock?q=ORE

[nowwhat2]

Well 2 things I guess I am wondering about (not having a clue as to "how things work") and they are :

1) Why did it sell off (a bit) after the resource upgrade and

2) It sounds like the drilling has been proceeding kind of slowly -
6 holes to a depth of 150 meters ?....Or sumpthin' like that - I dunno.


Anyways ; Lastly, is this here a dip which one ought to consider buying

[nowwhat2]

Awww shoot - This was one of my faves....but missed out on this rally


First stumbled upon them in November 2017

Looked at them again in January 2018



Why the top chart appears so wildly different though,
I haven't yet figured on out !.....WTH ?






Created a board for them where I also parked "Deletions" !

https://investorshub.advfn.com/Plateau-Uranium-PLU-32753/

[tikotiko]

I also received your other message and responded.

[tikotiko]

I think that the recent upswing had already factored in at least part of the good news from yesterday’s announcement. Couple that with some profit taking plus the recent drop in the whole lithium sector and we get today’s drop in SP. I think we may trade sideways or even drop to the $0.7s for a bit, before the market re-digests and truly understands yesterday’s announcement. I plan to hold to my shares and buy new dips since I missed the last one due to lack of liquid funds. Please keep checking your charts and let us know if you notice any signals.
Thanks

[nowwhat2]

Interesting. Way to go......"Swinging for the fences" ?......No.


6+ fold increase in inferred though - Can't remember -
Is that the main one (most important) ?....No "Proven" is the highest classification ?......
Where does "Probable" fit in ? . . . . Inferred / Probable / Proven ?


LoL.....Anyways, obviously I'm not a geologist (nor engineer)


So keep keeping your engineers eyes open for all perhaps - especially open/for "spot" prices maybe because - wonder whether THAT'S what's ignited these most recent perhaps sector-wide upswings.....?


For eg.







Aprox. 2 weeks earlier : And compare the 2 charts ?




Indeed, like ya' say - those recent lows (Advantage in the high .60's), would've been a fairly swell loading ramp !

[tikotiko]

6+ fold increase in inferred resource, larger extension in terms of both area and depth, nice chemistry and Phase 3 drilling underway. What is not to like!

[tikotiko]

Resource estimate just announced (see link). Nice upgrade!

http://www.advantagelithium.com/news-and-media/company-news/index.php?content_id=127

[tikotiko]

Yes, I am looking at it closely before I buy my next batch, hopefully before resource announcement.

[MikeyInTheD]

Volume is trailing off. I think we could slowly move lower again since the next catalyst moves us above 1.10. Keep holding this one.

[tikotiko]

Good for you Mikey and I agree with your observations. Unfortunately, I kept waiting for a new dip and missed the latest boat. I wished I had the funds when it briefly hit the high $0.6s. Oh well, I will wait for another opportunity as I definitely want to increase my number of shares by at least 50% to 100% this quarter and even more as the project progresses. I will do this by gradually shifting funds from my already producing lithium companies to the soon to be producers like Advantage.
The article I posted yesterday lists several project catalysts expected during the next 12 months which should greatly help the SP. First, we should see the results from the last exploratory well any day now, which I think will show a very healthy lithium concentration above or close to 600 mg/l with low Mg based on the results from 3 neighboring wells. This will be followed very shortly (or maybe together) with the resource estimate which has major bang potential. The recent sharp rise in SP is probably anticipating good results for both of these. My main interest remains the engineering details and the financing that will come next year. I hope Advantage can reach a good and fair agreement with Orocobre and perhaps Toyota without not giving up too much. If this occurs, then the project project will be derisked and in great shape for financing, construction and production. I believe that this will happen due to the good relationship that Advantage has with its partners.
I am almost green with an average of $0.91 and I hope to buy when I see new dips, which are always expected, but I won’t complain if the SP keeps going up!

Good luck to you and all here!

[MikeyInTheD]

Finally in the green after buying right before the last dip. I’m in at $0.83 and see this as triple potential in the next 18-24 months with some positive news. I think the downside is capped unless something happens with the partner contracts which I don’t foresee happening. We are approaching a catalyst with the news cycle for electronic vehicles and lithium batteries. Each time gas prices cross a psychological threshold the news will continue pushing the idea of electric vehicles. This should assist in again creating a floor under the stock and push the price to around $1.15 in the near-term. I personally don’t believe electric vehicles will reach mass acceptance until someone can produce a midsize SUV with a 350 mile range for under $40k. I still think we will see gains in demand for lithium but the tipping point that sends this thing to massive gains would be lithium prices moving higher or at least stabilizing along with better than expected production from the company.

[Therealbrucewayne]

Prior to the current drilling, AAL work had suggested that the combined exploration target in the Cauchari JV both NW and SE properties to be within a range of 0.25 - 5.6 Mt of lithium carbonate for the lower and upper ranges. We have taken the basis of those parameters along with current drilling to arrive at an estimate for the upcoming resource of 2.64Mt of lithium carbonate with an average lithium concentration of 480 mg/l. Our estimate falls about midway within the Company’s estimated range and represents a potential 5.6x increase in resource.. Advantage Lithium is finishing the Phase II drill program and is expected to deliver a resource update in May 2018. This should be followed by a preliminary economic assessment in H2/18.

THATS MAJOR.

"More importantly, the larger resource would be adequate to support a brine operation on the order of 15,000 - 25,000 tpa LCE for over 40- years"

[Therealbrucewayne]

I think 2.00 is conservative. Thanks for the info. Too much up side.

[tikotiko]

Another financial company (CantorFitzgerald) gives a $2 target in one year, which is a similar target as that given by the National Bank of Canada ($1.9). The new report has plenty of good details about the project. There are more details in Advantage’s web site. Lots of upside!

http://www.advantagelithium.com/_resources/pdf/20180511AAL.pdf

[tikotiko]

I also hope to buy as soon as I get additional funds. Hopefully this week or next.

[MikeyInTheD]

I still have only half the shares I intend to purchase. Looking like a good time to buy more. Price has stabilized and looks to be moving higher. Long-term this crosses $1.60. I think we could eventually get to $2.25-3.00 if production comes online and meets anticipated reserves.

[tikotiko]

Good news! The company just hired Worley Parsons to conduct a Preliminary Economic Assessment (PEA) of its Cauchari project (see link below). The results are expected this month. I missed the opportunity to buy at $0.6s, but hope for a new opportunity soon.

http://www.advantagelithium.com/news-and-media/company-news/index.php?content_id=125

[tikotiko]

Nice run today. I wish I had bought more last week in the $0.6s, but I do not have the funds yet. It should also rise after the results from the resource estimate. This one is a no brainer long term.
Good luck to you and all!

[MikeyInTheD]

Volume seems to be strong and pushing us higher. Hopefully we get some follow through this week.

[tikotiko]

Agree, I am also watching it and hope to buy more soon.

[MikeyInTheD]

Make or break time for the stock. This selloff seems way overdone to me. I bought at $0.80 and except an easy double from that level. The continued decline is offering even more upside so I might add more every 10 cents lower from .65.

The story is so overlooked and undervalued. If people do some research they’ll find one of the best microcap mining stories out there.

[tikotiko]

I am surprised by the sharp drop today and in recent days. The company is about to announce results from its last exploratory well, and this will be followed soon (maybe 1-2 months?) by the resource estimate of total lithium in the Salar. The fundamentals are there and I plan to accumulate more, but the drop in SP is disappointing and not logical.

[tikotiko]

FYI, I just posted a couple of recent announcements about a new set of drilling results from a well (from today) and 12 month valuation of approximately $1.5 US or $1.9 Canadian (a few weeks old).

My rough order of magnitude estimate of the capital cost is that it will be in the tens of million dollars and not in the hundreds of millions, because they will not need to build a full plant. Obviously, we will need to wait for all the specific details of the construction and financing to obtain accurate costs. As you mentioned, it is not easy for small companies to obtain the funds. In fact, I think that the larger lithium companies and other big fish will start making it more difficult. As a result, many of the small companies will not survive. However, I am confident that the relatively small capital cost coupled with their partnership with Orocobre and indirectly with Toyota will help Advantage succeed in the long term.

[tikotiko]

This announcement is about 3 weeks old. The National Bank of Canada gives a value of $1.90 Canadian (about $1.5 US) in 12 months.The company’s web site has the full article.


HIGHLIGHTS
? Emerging lithium junior with solid partnership: AAL is an emerging supplier of lithium carbonate (Li2CO3), with a 75% ownership in a JV with Orocobre (ORE), one of the world's largest lithium producers, on the Cauchari lithium project in Argentina. AAL's strategic relationship with ORE should reduce any future exploration, operating and construction risks.
? Updated resource estimate should be a key catalyst: AAL currently has about 470 kt LCE (lithium carbonate equivalent) of inferred resources (average well depth of 144m at 384 mg/l lithium). With positive drill results showing grades well over 500 mg/l at depths over 350 m, an updated resource estimate could come in Q2 2018E and we believe it could grow to between 2.1 and 3.5 mt LCE.
? A well-placed project could be a consolidation target: Relative to its peers, AAL is closer to infrastructure and two existing lithium operations that include large and well capitalized partners. Some consolidation of the three unique assets with shared boundaries could make sense.
? Battery demand puts pressure on supply chain: With growth in demand for lithium batteries for electric vehicles and grid power storage, demand is soaring for lithium salts (Li2CO3 and LiOH). Falling battery costs could drive demand growth for years to come. Spot prices for Li2CO3 remain high, at more than $18,000/t. The price should come back to the long-term average (<$8,500/t), but the market could be in short supply for a few years.
? Risks and headwinds: AAL needs capital and lithium markets are at risk of oversupply over the next few years. Commissioning of a brine operation takes time and is subject to uncertainties.
? Valuation and recommendation: Our C$1.90 target is based on peer analysis, assuming a growing resource and a NAV analysis using a 10% WACC discount rate with a relatively conservative lithium carbonate price deck.

[tikotiko]

Highlights of another good set of results announced today from drilling another well (refer to company’s web site for full report)


Cauchari JV Drilling Update Excellent NW Sector Results Averaging 571 mg/l Li - Hole CAU17

Vancouver, British Columbia, April 17, 2018 – Advantage Lithium Corp. (the "Company" or "Advantage Lithium") (TSX Venture: AAL) (OTCQX: AVLIF) is pleased to provide this update on the brine sampling of diamond core hole CAU17 in the NW Sector of the Cauchari JV property located in Jujuy Province, Argentina.

Highlights:

CAU17 drilled in the NW Sector intersected extensive gravel and sandy sediments, similar to hole CAU18, which is located 2.6 km further to the east.
Drilling has now confirmed the NW Sector contains sediments with relatively high drainable porosity and permeability which extend south From CAU17 and CAU18 through hole CAU07 to CAU16 and CAU15 as shown in Figure 1.
Brine sampling in CAU17 averaged 571 mg/l Li and 4,488 mg/l K in three samples taken in the lower part of the gravel sequence between 177 m and 203 m depth. These samples have an average Mg/Li ratio of 2.3:1, comparable to the nearby Olaroz project and other drilling in the NW Sector
Diamond drill hole CAU14 in the SE Sector is currently at a depth of 445 m with the aim of evaluating the continuation of the deep sand unit in the SE Sector
The Cauchari resource estimate is now expected to be completed in mid-May
Phase 3 drilling will start during May with new drilling equipment being mobilized to site, targeting the deep sand-dominated units in the SE Sector
Project Director Mr. Andy Robb commented: “The results of CAU17 are very encouraging, showing the continuation of high brine grades and attractive brine chemistry in the north of the NW Sector. Drilling in this area has now been completed for resource estimation purposes and on completion of CAU14 a new resource will be estimated for the project by mid-May.”

[MikeyInTheD]

Yeah I think this is a 24 month investment minimum to see substantial returns. Mining operations take a lot of time and capital to establish which isn’t always great for tiny publicly traded companies - but I think this one is just large enough to capitalize.

[tikotiko]

Agree. I also plan to buy more as soon as I take profits from another lithium stock. I like the fact that Advantage is not well known and that were are under the radar. This is the time to accumulate and to be patient. We will be rewarded in a couple of years or maybe sooner.

[MikeyInTheD]

Bought this morning. The pullback is overdone. It’s heading back to the highs in the next month. From there I think we put toward $2.00 by the end of the year. There are a lot of mining stocks out there with a lot of hype and never any results - this one has actual agreements in place with one of the biggest and best run lithium miners in the world. If they trust Advantage to produce results then we as shareholders should too.

[tikotiko]

Agree, they will succeed if they keep consolidating the good partnership they have with Orocobre and others that may help them with financing. The most likely scenario is that they will use Orocobre’s plant for processing. Obviously, they will have to give something in return, but they will save hundreds of millions of dollars not having to build a full plant. I am no expert, but I believe that installing wells, pumps, conveyance pipelines and other infrastructure should cost tens of millions of dollars (maybe $30 to $50 million or a bit more?), which is only a fraction of the cost of a full plant. Thus, financing should not be too difficult. Also, if the deal between Orocobre and Advantage were to go sour, which I seriously doubt, then there is the a SQM-LAC partnership next door, which I believe would be interested in working with Advantage.
The recent exploratory efforts have been good, and the resource estimate, financing and project plan are expected this year and next year. I remain patient and continue to accumulate here and there.
Good luck to all!

[MikeyInTheD]

This is one of the easiest doubles I’ve seen in a while. Lithium prices should stabilize. Advantage has some top tier partners which proves they are more than the typical penny stock mining company. If huge players trust Advantage then I am as an investor. They may eventually see a buyout as Toyota looks to consolidate the lithium industry through their recent investments.

[Therealbrucewayne]

Indeed.

[tikotiko]

Agree 100%, plus add “and exercise patience”.

[Therealbrucewayne]

"The Company has completed a detailed project development schedule and budget and is fully funded through the completion of the Phase 2 program"

Accumulate and hold.

[tikotiko]

I think this announcements may be more important than the good drilling results: Updated Resource Estimate this quarter, Preliminary Economic Analysis in June/July and DFS in early 2019. See details below.

Cauchari JV Development Timeline

The updated resource estimate, due to be released in Q2, will be followed by a Preliminary Economic Assessment (PEA) planned for completion in June-July. Proposals have been received from internationally recognised engineering companies with lithium experience and the selection process is well advanced to allow engineering studies for the PEA to commence in mid-April 2018.

The PEA will evaluate project development options and establish the preliminary project economics, summarised in a Ni43-101 Technical Report.

The Company has completed a detailed project development schedule and budget and is fully funded through the completion of the Phase 2 program, and the updated resource estimate, the Preliminary Economic Assessment, and the Phase 3 drill program which will support the DFS targeted for early 2019.

[tikotiko]

The company announced results from the latest drilling. Read highlights below and visit company’s web site for more details.

CAU18 Highlights:

-Diamond core hole CAU18 was drilled to a depth of 359 m and intersected extensive sand dominated units, confirming the positive porosity and permeability conditions of the NW Sector extending north from CAU07, CAU16 and CAU15
-For context, recent pump-tests at hole CAU07, which intersected extensive sandy sediments, suggested flow rates of up to 36 l/s may be possible
-Results of nine brine analyses of CAU18 have been received for the interval from 165 m to 320 m depth which consists of sand and halite dominated units
-The nine CAU18 brine analyses averaged 476 mg/l Lithium and 3,727 mg/l Potassium from 165-320 m depth
Average Mg/Li ratio of 2.5:1, very similar to the nearby hole CAU07 (2.3:1) and the producing Olaroz brine project resource (2.4:1) - very positive for utilisation of conventional or other brine processes

President & CEO Mr. David Sidoo commented: “CAU18 in the NW Sector confirms the extension of brine to the northern property boundary with Sales de Jujuy (Orocobre), intersecting sandy sediments and gravel indicating positive extraction characteristics in this area. The Mg/Li ratio is similar to that found across the Olaroz-Cauchari basin, which is very favourable for brine processing.With upcoming results from holes CAU17 and CAU14 the company will update the project resource estimate, to be followed by a PEA on what is Argentina’s only brownfields lithium project.”

[tikotiko]

I just read this at the HC site. It is an excerpt from David Talbot, who works for Eight Capital. It is my understanding that the article is from today. I did not find the original article, so I only copied what I found in HC.

We recommend Advantage Lithium with a BUY and C$1.90/sh target price. Our target is derived from a fully diluted implied valuation of its projects. Advantage reported pump test results overnight for rotary hole CAU07 that was drilled at its Cauchari JV in Argentina. CAU07 is the deepest hole to be drilled on the northwest side of the property. Nineteen samples taken over the pumping test averaged 601 mg/l Lithium and 4,853 mg/l Potassium with a Mg/Li ratio of 2.6:1. This is very similar to what was reported from the same drill hole as it was being completed in November. Favourable porosity and permeability characteristics were associated with the clay, sand, and gravel units throughout the hole and it had previously returned 635 ppm Li with a 2:1 Mg:Li ratio. It is also similar to an AAL core hole located 4.5km away from LAC (LAC-T, Neutral C$13.60 Target) resource grades. But today's results aren't about grade or chemistry…
Positive pump test results. More important is that today's pump test results demonstrate high flow rates over longer periods due to the favourable sequences of sand and gravel found within the hole. Tests were performed at four different pumping rates. The maximum flow rate achieved was 36 litres per second. A longer term test was able to pump 17 litres per second over 48 hours, and flow was limited by equipment used for the test. This compares well to Orocobre's (ORL-T, BUY, C$9.10 target) adjacent Olaroz lithium brine mine whose Feasibility Study suggested it would be capable of operating under a range of flows from 5 to 25 litres per second. This suggests that lithium bearing brine can be pumped to surface freely at quantities that are likely greater than required for a lithium brine operation.
Resource growth expected. Today's positive pump test and ongoing drill results could lay the groundwork for a significant resource increase when updated in Q2/18. Currently at 0.47 MM t, we expect a 4-5 fold increase to 2-2.5 MM t of LCE in the short term, on the way to management's ultimate target of 5.6 MMt LCE. Project improvement is taking many forms:
Increased footprint. The NW area was not tested prior to this program. It represents new expansion of both the Cauchari and Olaroz brine deposits.
High flow rates suggest high permeability of sediments in the salar. This allows brine to flow out of the ground more easily and is key to today's results. This may extend areas of influence, resource and zone boundaries.
Increased pore space. Pump tests also suggest high porosity. This allows increased brine per volume in the sediments (don't confuse with grade).
Increased Li grades. We estimate grades are ~63-67% higher to the NW, and ~75% higher in the SE as compared to 380 ppm Li resource grade.
Increased depths. Holes are up to twice as deep as the lower limit of most resources, and some holes are being extended even further. This is mainly a result of the SE area – NW drilling is brand new.
Drilling continues. NW sector will see CAU18 completed and 2.5km westward step-out to CAU17. CAU13 in the SE was drilled to 449m and intersected a clay-silt-sand-halite sequence below 400 m; brine sample analyses are pending. A second drill rig will deepen CAU12, and 5km NE step-out to CAU14 will follow.
Bullish reversal off the bottom of a four month trading range on decent volume. AAL's chart (Figure 2) suggests buying at the bottom of the range. Momentum is stabilizing at oversold levels highlighting a developing double bottom.
Company Description
Advantage Lithium is a lithium explorer and developer with top tier management and an international portfolio of quality assets. AAL recently acquired ~84,701 Ha in the Salta and Jujuy regions, including its flagship Cauchari JV project which is adjacent to Orocobre's and Lithium America's Cauchari-Olaroz deposits. ORL retains 31.12% interest in AAL and maintains an excellent opportunity for a ROFR or brine off-take agreement with AAL. The Cauchari deposit possesses good brine chemistry, low Mg/Li ratios, high grades and excellent porosity and permeability.

[tikotiko]

The most probable cause for the entire lithium market (not just Advantage) being hammered is the Morgan Stanley report, which is full of BS IMHO. I believe that investors have overreacted to this report, but they will soon realize its lack of value and so will the market. This is why I think this dip can be a good buying opportunity. If you do not believe this or in the company’s future value, then I agree that you probably may not want to buy and you may also want to reassess your position. I happen to believe in Advantage’s future so I choose to keep buying these dips in Advantage and in some of the other lithium companies I hold. I will also wait patiently for the company’s next announcement regarding exploration wells. They do not need to announce for the sake of announcing.
Good luck to you.