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Hi, Mark,
Trust all is well with you. The proverbial wheels in the head started turning so I thought I'd spell out the direction they're turning in and see if it makes any sense to you.
The Value Stock Selector does a reasonably fast job of getting data and processing it. AI does a good job also at looking at what would the results be if I AIMed a given security (or list).
What's missing? An automated ranking of the market like VSS only using the AI historical testing engine. In other words, feed it all the stocks/funds in the market, then run (for example) a 1-year test on each saving the results. Tests for this purpose might just offer canned results, say the default options from AI. I envision this as a jumping off point for finding candidates, rather than a final verdict of gospel truth.
After the scan's complete, sort the top 30 or so by descending annual return or ROCAR. This would give people a list of those stocks that have performed the best in the past year using whatever parameters the user's selected. The usual "past returns are not indicative of future returns" applies, of course, but I think it a way to efficiently find those stocks that might be the most promising.
Make sense?
Let me know what you think,
Best,
AIMster
Hi Stan, Re: Board activity................
This is still a "live" board, but not an overly active one. Most AIM related discussions still show up on that board while questions directly related to Automatic Investor usually show up here.
I don't know why you've had the re-direct to Login at I-Hub. That's not related, however. It's not happening to me, so I can't guess why it's happening.
There's several AIMers using AI, so I'm sure if you have questions, someone will offer a suggestion if Mark is unavailable.
Best regards, Tom
Isn't anyone using this board anymore? Every time I try to send a message it goes to Investorshub and asks me to log in again. After several go arounds I arrived here! Why did you change to this arrangement? No messages for quite some time, has everybody given up on Advanced Automatic Investor?
Stan
I may be mistaken on the name - I was reading past posts and noticed some software mentioned for release this year - I would have to go back through all of last years posts, it's not that important. Probably got the name wrong, anyway - but it was something other than AIM.
Stan
Hi Asahi,
Could you refresh my memory on the "Cup and Handle" software? It's not ringing any bells.
Regards,
Mark
http://www.AutomaticInvestor.com
http://www.ValueStockSelector.com
http://www.PragmaticInvestor.com
Hi, Mark
Whatever happened to the Cup and Handle software mentioned some time ago? I have just read all the posts todate - very interesting. Thank you for all the free advice.
StanG
Just a friendly reminder that the Fundamental Analyzer module is still broken.
Hi AIMster,
Yes, Aptus is a popular name and is used by a few other companies. I came up with the name for my company (Aptus Communications Inc.) in 1995 after brainstorming with a couple of others and thought it was fairly unique.
However since that time I've seen it used time and time again. The gaming company looks interesting, but I have no affiliation with them.
Hi, Mark,
Seems your 'handle' aptus is also used as a gaming company!! Or maybe you work for them already?
http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/080610/20080610005602.html?.v=1
Best,
AIMster
It will be fixed. When it is I will post the information here.
It looks like the Price/Cash Flow data is not being retrieved successfully. I'll have a look at the Yahoo! data and see what's up.
Is this ever going to get fixed?
Hi WB, I posted this over on the AIM bb because I couldn't remember who'd asked me about Exponential Moving Averages.....
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=29975848
Best regards, Tom
It looks like the Price/Cash Flow data is not being retrieved successfully. I'll have a look at the Yahoo! data and see what's up.
As an example, ENDP, just last month had a score of 8. I think it was 8 but it was definitely in the green zone. Now, since the problem with the Yahoo data, it has a score of 1. The values in the "fair value" column are all very low for every ticker. For example, INTC has a fair value of $3.69. Every ticker has a current price at least 4x greater than the respective fair value. Basically, the FA is telling me that all of my stocks are crap, which I know (hope) not to be true.
What are the ticker symbols you are analyzing?
I have my doubts about whether the results are correct. I am seeing some strange values for the overall score, fair value, and accruals. Essentially, my entire portfolio has gone from "green" to "red" overnight.
If any item in the FA gives a NA then the result is not complete. Otherwise, the results are correct.
I've noticed that the e!update function is working again and Yahoo! has gone back to their original format. I'm not sure what Yahoo! is doing, but until they settle on a format I can't issue an AI patch.
I'll continue to monitor and see if they settle on something.
Should I assume that the output of the Fundamental Analysis module is not to be trusted until the Yahoo data format problem is sorted out?
It looks like Yahoo! has changed their quote format again.
They were probably in the process of doing this over the past
month or so but kept the old format around and didn't do a complete change until today (which would explain the intermittent problems).
However I just checked and the old format is no longer there, so I would expect that e!update will not work for any stock.
I'll work on putting a patch together over the next few days. In the meantime, the workaround is to manually update your stock prices.
Thanks for the heads up.
I could not update any prices with AI tonight (05/22/2008).
It has been working fine the last couple of days. The last time I had a problem with that ticker was from 04/29/2008-05/11/2008. During that time period, Internet updates did not work for CHS.
Thanks.
Hi Glenn,
I've been trying to track down the problem with CHS but lately it's been working so I can't recreate it.
Don Carlson had sent me an email saying that another software package he uses stated there was a problem with Yahoo! data, however it appears any such problem has been corrected, at least from AI's perspective.
Is this still happening at all on your system? I know it has happened to me at least once last month when you first reported it -- unfortunately I wasn't able to debug it at that time.
Let me know if it happens again and I'll try to recreate the problem that day.
Hi Winkerbean,
The testing I did was a few years ago, so I don't recall everything I tested. However I did test various lengths.
In the end, the one implemented in AI performed best over the most market conditions. If another one had performed better, it would have been implemented instead.
I hope that helps.
Hi, Mark.
Have you tested other forms of the volume filter (ema v. sma, 10 periods v. 30 periods) to see which forms, if any, give consistently better performance?
Winkerbean
Thanks. That particular ticker update has been hit and miss since I wrote the message. It did update tonight.
Interesting interview on Hedge Funds with some Hedge fund managers.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/worldservice/programmes/080425_bbcdebate_hedgefund.shtml
It looks like there are a few other stocks that have a similar problem. I'll look into it.
Hi Jon
>>>>>So if you started selling 10% at 41.85 do you understand what I mean?
Its the only way I can think about AIM and not get depressed.
Please share yout thoughts,<<<<<
Not sure how you arive at high and low average price. Anyway with using the moving average those high and low prices keep automaticly adjusting. Also a trade won't kick in till BOTH conditions are met 1) AIM signal and 2) MA crossover
Toofuzzy
Hmm Tooth Fuzzy
I am catching up, I am getting despressed of AIM...smile...
I ment with catching up, that I come to the same conclusion,
You should have a fair value other then the stockprice to decide to buy or sell.
For buying there needs tobe a maximum roof, after passing that you should stop buying, its also to expensive when stockprices go up. forget about averaging stockprices, its almost impossible todo.
Simple, buy lower then $25
I am looking to introduction prices. TomTom, 3 years ago @ 17.50 when it started on the market. TomTom has an average lowest prices over these years until today of 22.86
Stock quote today 22.03 BUY BUY BUY
TomTom had an average highest price of 41.85
alltime high @ 68.15
So if you started selling 10% at 41.85 do you understand what I mean?
Its the only way I can think about AIM and not get depressed.
Please share yout thoughts,
Thank you,
Jon
Hi Winkerbean
I am not knowledgeable enough to answer your question on EMA But in regard to the original question I believe some reasonable Simple moving average could be picked that the stock looks like it wouldn't violate too often but at the same time wouldn't allow too big a drop or increase before a trade would occur. The particular MA you decide to use (20, 50, or 100) might vary with the volatility of the stock.
Anyway delaying AIM directed trades till the price crosses a MA is the theory.
Toofuzzy
Is there some reason that AI can no longer do an Internet update of the share price of CHS? The last Internet update of CHS that was successful was on April 17, 2008.
I have the formula for eMA at the office and will post it here on Monday.
Best regards, Tom
Hi, Tom.
Thanks!
WB
Hi WB, Re: exponential Moving Averages vs arithmatic Moving Averages.............
An exponential moving average eMA needs only two data points to calculate. It needs the previous eMA and the latest price. It weights each and creates the new eMA.
The arithmatic MA requires all the data points of the series to be summed and divided by the number of data points. eMAs are easy to calculate and do a reasonable job of approximating the arithmatic MA.
Best regards, Tom
Hi, TF.
Thanks! There's something I never quite understood about EMAs, though. Let Us presume I want to track the 100-day EMA of a stock price. Do You have any insight on whether I recalculate the EMA based on solely the last 100 days worth of data on days 101 and up? Or do I "allow" the EMAs of days 1-100 to continue to build-up (though to a small degree) within EMA #101+? The distinction may seem a trivial one, but such a difference can build over time into a significant one.
Allowing My math minor (and obsessive perfectionism) to show thru,
WB
Hi Winkerbean
>>>>(I know it's been a couple of years since this post. I ask You bear with me.) Is the 6 month moving average one of daily volume or price? Do You know if using both filters improves results over using just one?<<<<
You only use a moving average of price.
The theory is "Why do AIM sells till a stock reaches its peak?"
So as a stock moves up you pretend you are doing the sales and adjust AIM but don't sell anything till the stock price goes BELOW some Moving Average (50 day 200 day or whatever) and then do ALL the sales at once.
Another way is to just not do any trades or updates till a stock goes below the moving average. I think AIM has you sell less then doing the above.
The buy side could be the same. " No trades for you!" (sorry Seinfeld) till the stock RISES above the moving average. As long as the stock is BELOW the MA you do not BUY (and you certainly are not going to be selling anyway because the price is down)
Toofuzzy
Hi, Don.
MACRO AIM exceeds B/H with all parameter settings, and doubles B/H using Std AIM with 10% Safes and updating the AIM algorithm when the current price crossing a 6 month moving average.
(I know it's been a couple of years since this post. I ask You bear with me.) Is the 6 month moving average one of daily volume or price? Do You know if using both filters improves results over using just one?
Thanks for Your time,
WB
Hey AIMster,
There was a site that did just that a few years ago (although I don't remember what it was called). You could enter some stocks and it would do an analyses for you. You could also create an online AIM portfolio.
I had thought about doing that but decided against it because Web-based apps just didn't (and still don't -- even with the AJAX stuff) have the rich GUI and functionality of stand-alone software. Also, I didn't want to be responsible for keeping everyone's data online (I prefer to let everyone manage their data themselves).
Of course there is a middle ground and that is to have a rich client that provides a better user experience and go to the Web for updated data, etc. That's a bit of what AI currently does although it could do more of this.
Conceptually I like the idea of having a self-maintaining web site, but if I did this I would have to maintain two separate code bases. I think it's easier just to manually update the website -- although with 6-year old data out there you might disagree
Hi, Mark,
Here's a wild hare of an idea... (I just put down some 'red eye' coffee - a double shot of espresso into regular brewed coffee, kicks up the flavor and the buzz, good for the early morning jumpstart)!
Anyway, would there be some way to have the default AI calculation algorithm running so it would dynamically feed the results into a web page? That way it would be self-maintaining. Maybe offer choices of 1,3 5 and 10 year performance calculations to the prospective buyer, with the explanation that results over various periods of time may vary.
Hmm, as "The Brain" would put it, "are you pondering what I'm pondering?" It seems if you got that core built that it may become feasible to transplant AI as a web-based service, my thinking here being that you could switch to a subscription model and have a more steady cash-flow from this work instead of the per-license fee here and there once people find their way to the website or via Tom's site and the iHub boards.
Of course a lot of other AI users may want to also quote "The Brain" to ME, "If I could reach you I would hurt you!" for making such a suggestion, as we've gotten comfortable with the standalone version (except when the connection to the registration server gets finicky. <grin>).
Just a thought...
AIMster
Hi AIMster,
Hah! I had forgotten about that page. Of course you're right, the website does need an overhaul. I was actually thinking of redoing the entire site recently, but when I started looking at the number of pages involved, I instantly dropped the idea.
However updating a few outdated pages is probably a more realistic goal for me to achieve. If you find any other outdated pages, please let me know. I'll chip away at them bit by bit.
Hi Tom,
Thanks. And yes, you are right that having active users providing feedback is the key. I remember when I first created AI 1.0, I looked at your site and tried to incorporate all of the modifications you had made (as well as some of those from Jack Park).
When I had done that I thought, well that's about it. I'm not sure what else I can put in there. Then I released AI 1.0 and received a flood of suggestions that I hadn't thought about. Many have made their way into subsequent versions of AI and thus made AI a far better product than I could ever have created on my own.
Don Carlson has been instrumental in not only providing enhancement suggestions but also in testing and discovering bugs and such. Of course there have been many others too (AIMster for one) over the years.
But looking back, it all started with Lichello's book and then your Website.
Mark,
Not that you've anything else on your plate <grin> but I was browsing the AI website. http://www.automaticinvestor.com/performance.html
The MSFT performance ends in 2002 - you may, when you get one of those "round tuits" want to update the site to make things more current. This older stuff after so much time starts to give the impression of the website being a bit stale.
Maintenance!
Best,
AIMster
Good morning Mark,
I think you have done a great job keeping this product fresh. Certainly having active users providing feedback and thoughts doesn't hurt. Don Carlson's work is always highly detailed and very thorough. Having him as your main "Suggestor" is a good thing!
Best regards, Tom
Hi AIMster,
Yes, I remember. Some other users had that request too.
Although it might not seem like it, every enhancement request I receive is added to a list. Unfortunately sometimes it takes some time to get things in but I do check the list whenever a new service pack or major upgrade is in the works to see what I can fit in. (and in case you're wondering... Don Carlson is currently leading the list with the most suggestions.)
Hi Glenn,
Yes, if you upgraded from SP4 rather than SP5 that would be the issue. SP4 used the old registration mechanism.
There should be no need to register again unless you installed the software on a different computer or hard drive. Did you install it into the same folder as your previous version?
I installed it into the same folder. The first time I launched the program I did not get a registration message. It was on the second and subsequent launches that it showed up. I registered again and I eventually got an e-mail (automated, I presume) saying that it would be registered within 24 hours. I just launched AI and it did not present the registration message so I guess everything is fine now. Could the problem be that I updated from SP4, which had a different registration mechanism than SP5?
The only other thing that you'd notice is a cancel button when exiting and being asked if you want to save a backup of your database (so if you click on exit and change your mind, you can cancel and not have to leave the program).
Thank you! That was on my wishlist!
Hi AIMster,
Nothing major was added. The only other thing that you'd notice is a cancel button when exiting and being asked if you want to save a backup of your database (so if you click on exit and change your mind, you can cancel and not have to leave the program).
The next Service Pack update will contain a complete overhaul of the fundamental analyzer to bring it into line with the one in the Value Stock Selector. Currently AI and PI's fundamental analyzers use an older algorithm.
Hi, Mark,
My updating went fine. Whew! I note some authors have a readme.txt which often gives the version history, particularly noting what the various upgrades and 'bug fixes' are with each iteration. Other than the resolution of the Yahoo .stocks issue, what else was added in?
Curious,
AIMster
There should be no need to register again unless you installed the software on a different computer or hard drive. Did you install it into the same folder as your previous version?
In any event, please send me the registration number you are now seeing (displayed in red) and I'll check it against your old registration.
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