Acme Packet (APKT)

[goofyfoot]

You called it correctly. APKT guided lower. It would have been a good buy last week, say, and then to have sold right before earnings, today.

I remember reading on Acme Packet's website, right after their IPO, how they said that Cisco was their greatest competitor in that CSCO would develop products to compete with APKT's by the beginning of March of 2007.

I'm guessing that their own forecast came true.

Still, this would have been good for a swing trade, but I burned out most of my brain cells last week, trying to figure out NYX. Too bad I bought back in when I did ($98.50), because I sold today at 97.13. Feel like that one is going down for a while, judging by the chart and the RSI.

What do you think?

[Not_Bill_Oneil]

CSCO's conference call was very important...

I had to listen to it a couple of times.

Lot's of info in there, especially in Q & A. I recommend it for anyone reading, esp if you are interested in APKT or all things network related.

I picked up some more shares of CSCO yesterday as well during the pullback. Now lets see what the guys from Burlington have to say.

RVBD's call is also tonight.

Again, we have some real market leaders - tech/Nasdaq - that acted well out of the gate, let's see if the bulls step up here, or if we continue to sell into it this am.

[goofyfoot]

Wow, thanks for the info. I think you're right, APKT could swing either way, after earnings. It seems like right now, at 12:30 p.m. Tuesday, the market is waiting for some announcement by Bernanke (jeez, not this again) and for Cisco to report their earnings. I'm really, really hoping that Cisco had a good quarter and guides higher. In fact, I'm betting on it - bought a few shares of CSCO yesterday.

Somehow, I think CSCO is going to do OK. APKT, being a competitor, well, who knows? I still own some Finisar, who makes some equipment for Cisco, so maybe good earnings from Cisco will help FNSR.

One bad move I did make recently was buying Google on the afternoon before their earnings report. Always wanted to own some Google. Now, I keep asking myself, why did I have to pick that day to buy it?

Still reading Carter's book. I'm not even close to the level of trading that that guy writes about (mini-Dow, mini-S&P, pivot plays, multiple software tools, etc.), but his insights into trading according to a set of rules is really an eye opener. So is his postulate of never trading on emotion. Even though I had gotten to a point in his book where he had reiterated that several times, I bought Google purely on emotion. Google will come back, though I might have to wait a while. Anyway, lesson learned.

Hope your trades are going your way.

Fish

[Not_Bill_Oneil]

One other thing I noticed...

Fishsurfer (and it sounds like you are doing well), I saw you made a good observation on the MRVL board about BRCM. I'll just refer to a Yahoo! finance page here: http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ae?s=BRCM

For anybody else, see the section on growth estimates: there is a lot of info there all the way out to 5 years. Compare this BRCM page to the listing say for MRVL, then check it for APKT (you're shooting in the dark on a new issue), and then for some current market leaders (and some of the absolutely huge positive percentages on these leaders). I'd recommend studying what Bill O'Neil writes about in some of his books regarding what you want to see in growth percentages.

And, regarding market leaders, personally, I still think this whole related communication networks convergence theme is a huge technology shift, and the big stuff happening right now is mostly behind the scenes. So, I like the big names in all of this, yet think there is long-term potential in some of the up and coming names as well (like APKT). Watch some related IPO's coming too this year.

And like many commentators have been reminiscing this past month - that years ago, all of the cool CES stuff was for the future. Now, like I mentioned previously what I saw the other weekend, most of this cool stuff is for sale, right now, including at the new HD home networking/entertainment section. We're at a key point of this very expansive new technology penetration into our society and the economy. We're at the part of the curve where rapid growth takes off for a large portion of the population to adopt much of this - into the mainstream. It is a revolution, and it's going on right now.

But, back to this one - I'm already in and am holding a little (I didn't sell enough of it as it popped and then came back once again to $18 / the 50ma), but, I'm waiting for a confirmation on the Nasdaq before doing much more buying in tech. I don't really like to specifically recommend anything especially on a board, because there are so many different time frames, trading styles and strategies, investing/trading objectives, other factors, etc. for different people reading (factors that would even affect how you interpret the growth estimates). But, bottom line - if I was not in, I'd personally wait and not buy.

The chart for APKT (what little there is) is broken for now, relative strength is very poor, and the street estimates are still negative for the year. Maybe that will change and maybe it won't, but, this is not a proper low-risk buy point even if it does go up from here. There are a lot of other stocks with many established quarters of accelerating earnings and that are performing great right now.

GL & GT.

[Not_Bill_Oneil]

Here's what else I'm still watching...

right now.

S&P 500 made new 6-year highs this past week, however, the Dow and the NYSE composite as well as the S&P Midcap 400 made all time highs, not to mention the transports ending up strong right at resistance. Partly why I like NYX too - is how well the NYSE composite continues to perform.

So what about the Nasdaq? We're still waiting.

You can study the sectors and see what's happening, but, you know what else I think - look at a historical chart of 1998. I believe had we had a fallout last year like the 1998 late-July through October LTCM-induced plunge (during the previous similar 4-yr cycle), we'd be into a stronger tech rally like what followed back then. However, with some of the other differences in the economy right now, we wait. We wait on the Fed to lower just a little (like they did in late '98 and '95) and other tech related things like Vista and all of the related industry upgrades finally going.

When we get the Nasdaq finally ramping and firing like what you see in that historical chart, I'd say jump in with the real leaders in tech (and telecom). But, right now, no one is sure if APKT is going to be a new leader or not during the next couple of years.

Since APKT is a new issue, this next conference call will have a lot riding on it. Basically, it will answer the question if their low forecast from the last call (one of the few wrenches in all this) was based on a real business scenario they saw (as well as things like the extra costs of being a public company which they mentioned), or, if they were just sandbagging a lot of it (with explanations like the extra costs of being a public company). If they start a pattern of under-promising and greatly over-delivering with this next call, that will do great things for this issue.

Having no history on them as a public listing is one of the added risks of owning a new issue. That's likely one cause of this selling pressure leading up to this week - that and that negative growth estimate.

So, let's see if they beat, and if so, by how much. Then you'll know the answer. Listen to the call to hear not only the "why" behind their numbers, but, to hear the "why" for their outlook and guidance - it's gonna have to be a great call to get this going again right now.

[Not_Bill_Oneil]

Good question...

We'll all find out this Wednesday.

[goofyfoot]

Not_Bill, what do you think about the PPS right now ($15.15). Will it go up?

[Not_Bill_Oneil]

And buying it back as...

it closes that gap.

Watching the market however, it's still soft, so, going slow.

GL & GT.

[Not_Bill_Oneil]

Good article in IBD...

today on APKT.

Also, check out CSCO's PR yesterday on the Ironport.com announcement. IBD has anonther article on this acquisition on page A4. Very interesting...

GL & GT.

[Not_Bill_Oneil]

This move and interest...

started with Cramer, but it is not ending there. You have the telecom equipment group and other related groups and stocks getting some interest and heating up a little. Again, I don't think these guys should really be classified as such, but, that's how people are defining them, for now.

I sold into the pop Tuesday after Cramer's piece and traded yesterday because the funds and other institutions that can move a stock don't buy like that - people watching the show do. However, I will likely get back in sooner rather than later due to the other related interest, because the funds and other institutions that can move a stock buy when related groups and stocks start getting interest and heating up.

Watch the market and other radar screens these other buyers are watching.

GL & GT.

[Not_Bill_Oneil]

Yes, he did a good piece...

on Friday. I caught the late version after hearing him mention it earlier.

However, I'm selling my remaining shares into the strength this morning, even though his influence on stocks is growing. Have to, until this market starts back up. And until the general trading patterns change (something to watch for if this market really takes off next year, esp with more anticipation later of a rate cut).

Sidebar - APKT was on top of IBD's Stocks on the Move screen this morning - which will bring more attention to it today and in the coming week(s) - since this week will probably be slow with the holidays. But, I still want to see more volume on a move like this even during a slow trading week.

Since recent IPO's are sometimes harder to trade, will have to follow this more closely as to when to reload and get back in.

One more thing, I think this is tied to more than just VoIP as Cramer mentioned. And I'm surprised he didn't mention more - like video, especially since on almost every other related recommendation he talks a little about growing video traffic and the future demand related to more video.

Take CSCO - yes, they have their recent iPhone news (ahead of the anticipated AAPL news). But, also think about CSCO's new slogan and their new video conferencing plans (TelePresence), that's a plus and a concern - as they have to somehow incorporate the SBC functions themselves or acquire somebody. Think video telephony (and related aspects) across many devices. I'm also thinking about different uses for interactive IPTV, VoD, etc. as well as related network and security issues - longer-term ideas as more bandwidth problems are solved down the road. Ideas tied to APKT as well.

GL & GT.

[goofyfoot]

Cramer is shamelessly pumping APKT, right now (6:27 p.m. EST, Friday, December 22nd) on TV. APKT is at $18.21/share. Christmas is Monday, so the market won't open till the next day. Probably not much movement next week. But, who knows, maybe the week after?

[Not_Bill_Oneil]

Who makes the chips...

for APKT boxes, and other similar network / communications gear makers?

There's a couple, but one I started buying yesterday.

Do a little DD and you'll find them. I think the time is getting closer for these to finally start as well. Time to start thinking about scaling in.

GL & GT.

[Not_Bill_Oneil]

Hey Fish...

Most people, be it traders or in other fields still work for a living!

But, I know what you are saying!

Glad you got the book.

Also, I don't rely on boards for tips and mainly read them to gauge emotion of different groups, if I spend much time at all. Your time is better spent in other ways, like developing your own trading style and rules and then studying and research. The key there is staying in the game long enough at the beginning, so you can develop your style. Those books mentioned will help in that regard.

You have a bull market right now, and not sure when you started actively trading, but, things may be a little more forgiving currently (again depending on your style). The lure of trading is a fascinating phenomenon on it's own, not to mention hearing about those very top bonuses at GS.

GL & GT.

p.s. I ordered some Christmas books on Amazon on Friday, and had a similar experience. And on that note, I grow more frustrated week by week with the terribly slow page loads on Yahoo! - especially for photos, videos, maps, etc. Thinking may have to change my default browser home page - to Google as it's always faster (and it's been on Yahoo! since what '97?). I also use Craigslist a lot now. Sadly, Yahoo! seems to keep falling further behind and/or not executing.

[goofyfoot]

Bought Carter's book, Mastering the Trade, via Amazon, a few minutes ago.

I think I know why Amazon took such a dive in its PPS, or at least one reason, after I struggled to make sense of their GUI that linked to unexpected and incorrect pages that resulted in your having to re-login every four screens or so. Finally, I was able to make the deal, after trying to update an account I've had for a few years.

Looking forward to reading it.

It looks like APKT is doing OK, although it does seem like a trading stock. Make a dollar (or two), wait for it to drop, buy again, and wait. I think that's OK.

Trouble is, you really have to have the time to focus on it.

I actually work for a living, unfortunately, so I can only follow a couple or three stocks at a time.

If only this one stock I own, BIOM, would go up by 2000% like all those Yahoo! posters say it will... Then, I could quit my job and really get into this trading thing.

I'm sort of kidding, but sort of not.

[Not_Bill_Oneil]

No problem Fish...

I'm glad you sound open to looking up Carter's book. It's sometimes hard to offer suggestions without sounding condescending. The only other thing I would offer regarding your reply, is I like to lean more conservative with an IRA, more towards the blue chip value issues.

If you find his book helpful, here are some others for later - all great reads with invaluable information on the markets (not in any particular order):

How to Make Money in Stocks, by Bill O'Neil (also check out all of his other books, get an IBD subscription, and Daily Graphs too).
Tools and Tactics for the Master Trader, by Oliver Velez & Greg Capra (check out their recommended reading list in their book too).
Any and all books by Fontanills (to get you thinking about options while also learning more about stocks).
The Master Swing Trader, Farley
Option Volatility & Pricing, Natenberg
Real Money, Cramer
How I Made $2,000,000 in the Stock Market, Darvas
Reminiscences of a Stock Operator, LeFevre
Any book you like on TA (that is right for your level and easy to understand for you - some are pretty dry and/or rely on a good prior understanding),
a good starter is "Getting Started in Technical Analysis", Schwager.

To see what really goes on behind the curtains, check out:
Cramer's "Confessions of a Street Addict"
and then Dan Reingold's "Confessions of a Wall Street Analyst"
and last but not least "The Smartest Guys in the Room" (about the Enron debacle).

These are just a few favorites of mine. They will lead you onto many others if you're interested.

There is a lot of other info online like you mentioned, and in the form of real-time trading rooms, sites, newsletters, seminars, etc. - some that are linked with some of the people above.

GL & GT.

[goofyfoot]

Thanks, Not_Bill, I appreciate your kind words.

I lost about 16% of my working capital on NMX. I foolishly dumped shares of XRTX and SAI in my IRA so I could buy NMX. The loss is about the same in that account, but as luck would have it, losses in an IRA aren't tax deductable until all distributions have been made, which won't be for another 15 years or so. Think I'll just take this one on the chin, because I won't remember to keep my records around for that long.

I will check out Carter's book. Never actually read a book about investing, thus far. Only excerpts that have published on the net.

You're right. I was looking for a "revenge trade" after this, and while I haven't lost anything, I'm about where I started.

It's never as simple or as good as you wish it would be. At least not so far.

Thanks again!

Fish

[Not_Bill_Oneil]

Not sure where you are at...

but, those first 2 to 5 trading years are the toughest, and everybody has to go through them in this game. And most everybody goes through many trades like what you described. But, if/when you have a substantial drawdown hanging over your head, that's when it really helps to have some drawdown rules. They help keep you in the game.

Otherwise, you can get yourself into what others have called "the revenge trade". Those don't usually lead to gains, not when that bitterness creeps in.

It sounds like you're doing well with it, notwithstanding. It can help clear your emotions by doing what you did (exiting), and those strong emotions never help. If it bounces back now without you, just take the lesson from it for the next time.

It's still a bull market, but, it still requires caution.

Good trading to you!

[Not_Bill_Oneil]

Hey Fish...

sorry to hear about NMX. Unfortunately a lot of people right now are left in a position similar to what you described, even though it is still the best IPO performer from it's price range for 2006 - probably because of it and all the hype it got.

Heelys did well last week too, but only 7th best opening performer for the year. APKT is still number three.

IPO's do require some extra attention to trade, and I often wait awhile, but, have been in APKT, DIVX, and a couple of others this year.

If you are kinda bitter about NMX, and I'm not sure what percentage loss you are talking, I'd highly recommend John Carter's book, Mastering the Trade (if you haven't read it yet). He talks about trading rules, business plans, and specifically drawdown (and profit) rules every serious trader should have outlined.

I've found his book to be tremendously helpful to my trading and investing.

Separately, Bill O'Neil's advice on IPO's hasn't changed much over the years from his different editions of "How To Make Money in Stocks".

GL & GT.

[goofyfoot]

Thanks for the info!

I sold APKT way too soon so I'd have enough money to lose on NMX. NMX might go up to where I bought it, maybe next year, but I had to take the loss so I could buy some other stocks that I somehow believe will go up.

HLYS has a similar pattern to NMX on their IPO day. After Christmas, well, it might climb five bucks or so, but I'm just basing this on being burned by NMX. Kind of bitter about NMX, I guess.

In comparison, APKT was a rocket. At least it went up a few dollars after it launched, dropped a lot, and now it's back where it was before their ER. Who knows, APKT might have another five dollars of upside!

[Not_Bill_Oneil]

Watch for this...

one to go. You have AKAM going, and FFIV starting up today, wait for CSCO, and then be ready for this to follow.

Just watch your buy point and volume and the market when it's ready.

GL & GT and have a good weekend.

[Not_Bill_Oneil]

About APKT's industry group...

When I previously noted that they could be classified in a different industry group by IBD, there are positives and negatives about that. The negatives are - it is placed in a poorly performing group (133 out of 197) and a lot of leading funds won't even venture looking at it too seriously at first because of it. There would be a whole lot more interest right now for APKT if it was in with the Internet Network Solutions group and a whole lot more buying pressure and sponsorship automatically because of it.

The positive is it does confuse people - this group placement, making funds and other investors much more hesitant, at first, to buy. It helps cool this issue down, even though it came out of the gate fast, gives it a chance to find it's level and show it's real character and strength and let some long-term big holders slowly accumulate shares (thereby also giving lots of investors the time to do some DD and buying of their own if appropriate). That type of action for awhile and those types of holders will ultimately make it a better long-term prospect when this area in the communications industry really starts to take effect and should they, in fact, lead it. Just remember, sometimes these things develop a little slower than anticipated (it seems this could be part of their forecast).

And on another note regarding the previous post (besides mentioning real earnings), LVLT has 20x the number of shares as a small cap like APKT - what's easier to move? Also, there are constantly better compression technology improvements (i.e. DIVX - I'm thinking the video side of things), there will have to be even more changes for the growing mobile field (again video and smaller screens and less data needed), etc. Not that "pipes" is the only thing LVLT has going for it. Do your DD...

GL & GT.

[Not_Bill_Oneil]

Cramer has been on...

a hot streak for awhile now, with this market. Is LVLT a good pick? Yes and no, but, the key word right now is "speculative".

I do like it. The company I used to work with did work for LVLT back in the '90's. But, I probably would not pick a LVLT over some other small-cap issues out there even as a "speculative" play of the year for 2007. Not when they still don't have any earnings, only debt servicing, and according to Crowe's comments, will be that way for another 4 or 5 quarters.

I mean, there are just so many other related plays even within or related to this network convergence theme right now, with solid earnings.

Yes, by the look of the chart and with the industry, economic, and market trends going on right now, it probably keeps going higher here. And they are an integral and big part of the all-things-network-related-bull-market theory I also believe. They are a network of networks. So, yes, I will likely consider buying some in the future, but just not at this time.

Just look at the data shown on IBD's Daily Graphs, and you don't have to do much digging beyond that. There are much better solid (not speculative) picks out there right now, one's with real, accelerating earnings in growing fields.

That said, so often, you read some commentary, or blog, etc. with some stated position, but, you never really get the full perspective of where anybody is coming from - not without a 15 to 20-page report. So, I must add, for some people, who are heavily exposed in other sectors like retail, biotech, oil, banks, transporation, chemicals, etc. sure, maybe a speculation play like this fits in perfect for them. But, if you are already heavily exposed in tech, and especially in this network stuff, like I am, then it makes sense to me to stay with the proven leaders, while keeping an eye on this one. Then in several more quarters when the turnaround is more clear, you can pay up and buy into it then.

Cramer also talked about APKT when a caller asked about it. Is CSCO the better play? Can't argue with that at all - the funds are buying it. But, I'd still recommend doing some more digging into APKT.

Also, check out: http://www.level3partners.com/index.php?page=site/build_it_yourself&nav_id=abee442c701b3c3641d41...

GL & GT.

[Not_Bill_Oneil]

These are some links...

that I found interesting when I first started reading about this. Varied info for anyone interested and trying to get up to speed. These will lead you on to other info if you want to find out more.

http://www.acmepacket.com/html/page.asp?PageID={E1830F41-14E0-4A5B-9155-CAE5B92BE841 Fact Sheet (I like their background on the page too, a subtle message)

http://www.lightreading.com/document.asp?doc_id=99156 important reading with lots of links.

http://www.lightreading.com/document.asp?doc_id=85101 up against CSCO

http://www.bizjournals.com/boston/stories/2006/06/12/newscolumn1.html?jst=s_cn_hl good article

http://www.menloventures.com/portfolio/communications/ one venture capital backer (major shareholder) - look also at the other companies on this page.

http://www.rivulet.com/public/Rivulet_Brochure.pdf About communications convergence

competitor http://www.sipcenter.com/sip.nsf/newsview?open&type=News&docid=WEBB6BSGF5

important http://www.sipcenter.com/sip.nsf/html/SIP+Firewall+and+NAT+Traversal

http://www.lightreading.com/document.asp?doc_id=98573 carrier servers and software or vaporware

http://www.lightreading.com/document.asp?doc_id=104303 opinion piece

more

http://www.session-controller.com/cust-docs/33-NAT-Traversal.pdf

http://www.newport-networks.com/whitepapers/

http://www.newport-networks.com/whitepapers/lawful-intercept1.html

http://www.newport-networks.com/investor/index.html

http://www.sonusnet.com/contents/home/home.cfm

http://www.sonusnet.com/contents/brochures/IDC_Event_Flash.pdf

http://www.sonusnet.com/contents/brochures/CurrentAnalysisOctober2006.pdf

http://www.acmepacket.com/images/acmepacket_whitepaper.pdf

http://www.lightreading.com/document.asp?site=lightreading&doc_id=63481

http://www.sonusnet.com/contents/brochures/Web_NBS_Whitepaper.pdf

http://www.lightreading.com/document.asp?doc_id=110194


Again, these were just some starting points that I was saving from when I started. If you are interested, these will lead to much more info out there.

GL & GT.

[Not_Bill_Oneil]

How much do you pay per month...

for communications?

Think about it, across all infrastructure, for access to networks such as APKT can and/or already has SBC's installed between borders/connection points between these networks.

Well, we have a land phone line (local & long distance carriers), DSL (with AT&T), satelite, internet fax, two cell phone accounts (more phones), Wi-Fi pc account, and various email access accounts (i.e. Earthlink, etc. from previous ISP accounts and web hosting account). For trading I'm looking into options for getting a second backup internet connection (we used to have cable before we moved out to the country). I confess, no Blackberry or VoIP for me, yet.

In the mid-nineties, I paid on average $40-$50 per month for a phone and a second fax line (held off on cable for a long time).

Now we pay approx $300 per month (low end range) for all of the above. And as all of these networks as well as all of the coming new interactive communication networks (think what's coming out in the near future, i.e. w/ AAPL, etc.) migrate and converge to IP based networks, do you think these type of costs will increase for most consumers? I do.

And where does a lot of this money go, ultimately? To upgrade and build new communication infrastructure especially if critical communications start to shift from PSTN (Public Switched Telephone Networks) and wireless services to IP networks. And a lot of this capital will find its way to companies delivering new valuable products for this convergence and shift, like APKT and it's competitors if/when that shift really starts to take effect.

Do you think CSCO (as well as some other big fish) is interested in all this? You should.

That said, even though it's a different business model and environment, look at what newcomer Google did with Yahoo and others in its field.

Anyone interested in any of this should talk to people they know in the industry, to hear what's going on behind the scenes. Or, you can monitor the stocks of everyone involved in this work and different industry groups and sectors to also get a feel for what's going on behind the scenes.

GL & GT.

p.s. Hope everyone had a great Thanksgiving.

[Not_Bill_Oneil]

With CSCO & JNPR just ramping...

You have to expect more moves like today.

Interesting things about this issue. IBD has APKT in the Telecom equipment industry group (ranked very low). Whereas many of their competitors (except for Sonus) are listed in the Computer Networking group (ranked no. 3 out of 197).

And the major portion of their 80% gross margins actually comes from licensing their secret software used in their own boxes. What software group could come close to describing them?... Look at the sub-sectors to work on that one (i.e. security, enterprise, etc).

But, what about the Internet Networking solutions group - I actually think they could belong in there. Look who else is in that group and what they do. And the carriers (their customers) seem to prefer the SBC's separate from the routing equipment, etc. I think of APKT more of a cross between FFIV and/or an AKAM and a CSCO (w/ a twist) if I had to quickly describe them and catagorize the company into a group.

It's hard to place these guys, I like it. That confuses people. And I think having them listed in the telecom equipment group adds to the confusion. I like that too.

I also like what I've been reading. It's just that forecast...

I'll try to post some links before early next week.

Happy Thanksgiving.

[Not_Bill_Oneil]

Thanks for the reply Fishsurfer...

I just liked their CC (except for the forecast) and that this is really the forefront of the backbone internet and telecom industries right now (and cable and media), this convergence, so I read alot last night too - there is a lot of technical info on the internet on this. It's an exciting space right now with everything going on with all the providers and all players, and this is an issue they all must address and incorporate.

Sometimes (like this) I think it's worth the time to really investigate a space like this, just 'cause there is so much money and work behind it and involved around the world. Whereas oftentimes it's easier and makes more sense just to let the sector and stock action tell you what's really happening behind the scenes, in something like this - a convergence and possible shift in critical communications, any knowledge you gain can also payoff in other related plays.

Glad you got a gain out of it, and were cautious on MRVL.

GL & GT.

[goofyfoot]

Not_Bill,

I really don't know as much about APKT as you. I've heard of their competitors, especially how CSCO is going to take market share from them next year. I was counting on a decent six months, and then, well, I'd bail.

Happy, sort of, that I made a little money off them, although I should have waited until after the complete fall after their ER, which took a couple of days. I learned that when a new stock falls like that, it doesn't recover quite as fast as say, GRMN or WFMI, after bad earnings, because its had such a short period of performance. Then, again, Cramer giving a positive response is probably what pushed the stock back up.

BTW, I sold my MRVL this afternoon, before their ER. Got scared because it wasn't going up much in the last half hour. MRVL is one troubled company that produces incredibly advanced technology. A lot of people have faith in it, but it just doesn't perform. At least not since its bad ER-related fall in August. Had my hopes up, but I made the right choice. It dropped to $18.90 in AH.

Fish

[Not_Bill_Oneil]

Thanks for the link lady1242...

that's just where I wanted to start. It sounds like perhaps you got some shares in the primary, congrats if you did.

I agree about the current uptrend, I bought a little yesterday based on the technical action.

But, I'm running short on time today, so for anybody else trying to get up to speed on this like I am, do you or Fishsurfer know more background on the industry? I'm curious not only about their direct competitors in SBC's but also about Sonus' Network Border Switch.

Is CSCO already chasing and/or partnering or working with any of the smaller companies in the space whom may also already be in with any other providers? Thx.

GL & GT.

[lady*b]

Quiet period ends on November 21st. Watch for a nice uptrend today and tomorrow, imho. Next move up will be about a week after the 21st if everything stays on track.....imho

[lady*b]

Go back to the prospectus in my first post here. Ton of information to start with, and I believe it's far from over.

imho

[Not_Bill_Oneil]

Still thinking about this...

They talked a little about competition in the coming year during the CC - JNPR mainly. But, you've got to think about CSCO with their inroads already into the same customers APKT is looking at.

Time to start digging.

[Not_Bill_Oneil]

I think so too...

regarding the Cramer effect. Let's see if he does do a segment on this. It would be interesting to hear his take on this.

I just listened to the archived CC, and the Q&A session was very informative. 275 existing customers, 50 new customers (look at who their customers are), 80% gross margins (and they explained their hardware platform and then the varying level of software content/licensing they add which is the key margin driver), 54% North America and 46% International sales (and where they expect that metric to go) - I like that they mentioned they expect to be with all North American cable companies eventually - and the robust cable market right now forcing change in the industry (think VZ, T, fiber rollouts), 50/50 constant split of access and peering aspects of their business over the years. How about the numbers: 229% revenue growth, accelerating earnings and revenue, etc.

Also revealing is their comment on one new customer just announced - British Telecom. How they worked for 3 years with them understanding their network etc. before they became a commercial paying customer (and probably only in Phase 2 currently). And how this leads to their long-term critical roles with these providers.

Their phasing with customers, and particularly the example with Sprint, where they are doing a broadbase rollout but only on one segment line.

Their explanation that SBC is really needed in packet loss, latency, and jitter sensitive data streams - which is voice & video, but doesn't really matter to them what infrastructure access it's from - wire, cell, WiMAX, Wi-Fi.

Lots more.

Time to do some more research into APKT, especially why 2007 forecast is what it is. Hmmmm, something doesn't add up there, at least not after this first glance. GL.

Fishsurfer - good luck in MRVL too.

[goofyfoot]

The Cramer Effect drew interest to the stock, I think. Not that I believe what he says, very often, but he sure can throw some positive or negative attention around.

I actually made a three dollar profit on each APKT share I held, by selling a couple of days before their earnings. Then, stupidly, I bought back in at $15.50 a day later, and it dropped to the lower 14's. Needed the money to buy MRVL three days before their earnings (I wasn't going to hold through earnings, but now I am). You know that rule - once you buy the stock, you can't sell it in less than three days.

Now that I've changed my mind about selling MRVL tomorrow, I could have waited to buy it, and sold APKT today for a profit. Ah well, you can't afford to look back.

[Not_Bill_Oneil]

Cramer mentioned this briefly last night...

I don't think too many people heard, but, he mentioned this while discussing another stock and said to one of his producers on the set that they have to do a piece about APKT quick, this week, he seemed to be getting very excited about it.

Good chart move today.

[goofyfoot]

Things didn't turn out so well, with the conference call:

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/061107/earns_acme_packet.html?.v=1

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=%7b6DD5CBD3-A65C-4CD0-B455-4E7518610E2B%7d&...

Maybe things will improve?

[goofyfoot]

Lady,

I kind of dropped the ball on the game; got busy and well, you know... But I did start another board.

Please check out the brand new ORBC/ORBCOMM board. It IPOd today, and dropped like a rock, but I have hope for it, somehow.

What do you think?

Chuck

[lady*b]

I don't think it will be much of a surprise. They did well, imho and hopefully paid down some debt with the IPO.

[goofyfoot]

I'm hoping for a nice surprise!

[lady*b]

Acme Packet Provides Pivotal Session Border Control Functionality at Global MSF Interoperability Event
Acme Packet(R) (NASDAQ: APKT), the leader in session border control solutions, today announced it has successfully participated in the Global MSF Interoperability 2006 (GMI 2006) event, a worldwide interoperability event focused on IP Multimedia Subsystem, or IMS, which concluded today. As the only telecommunications equipment vendor to test at all four host sites, Acme Packet demonstrated that its Net-Net(R) family of products is capable of independently supporting a broad range of applications and network conditions, such as real-time interactive IP-based voice, video and multimedia sessions, across a real world, multi-vendor IMS-based infrastructure.

"The GMI 2006 event is critically important for any vendor or service provider that is committed to building or implementing infrastructure based on the IMS architecture," said Joe McGarvey, Principal Analyst, Carrier IP Telephony, Current Analysis. "This was, in effect, a litmus test for the industry, as it clearly and successfully demonstrated the multitude of equipment, processes, and services that carriers will need in order to build a next-generation service delivery platform, as well as the ability to deploy high-quality services across disparate IP networks and borders."

Acme Packet demonstrated its Net-Net Product family in all five of the test scenarios, including single domain testing with nomadic subscribers and Value Added Services, IMS interconnection between subscribers in the MSF R3 domain and 'pure' IMS domain, and roaming of subscribers between MSF R3 and 'pure IMS' networks.

Specifically, Acme Packet tested several components of its Net-Net product family, including: its integrated session border controller (SBC), the Net-Net Session Director (SD); its newly decomposed SBC configurations, including the Net-Net Border Gateway (BG) and Net-Net Session Controller (SC); access and interconnect SBC configurations; and access SBC configurations with and without P-CSCF support.

"Our participation in GMI 2006 reflects the way our customers around the globe are building their networks, without the limits and constraints of physical, architectural and single vendor boundaries," said Seamus Hourihan, vice president of marketing and product management for Acme Packet. "The Acme Packet Net-Net product family is designed to independently support a broad range of applications and services across internal and external provider boundaries while maintaining key control functions in the areas of security, service reach, SLA assurance, revenue and profit protection and regulatory compliance."

The worldwide GMI 2006 interoperability event was led by five of the world's leading service providers, BT, KT, NTT, Verizon and Vodafone, and took place over a two-week period across four test locations, including the BT Advanced Research and Technology Centre (United Kingdom), the KT Technology Lab (Korea), NTT's Musashino Research and Development Center (Japan), and Verizon Labs (MA,USA).

About GMI 2006

GMI 2006 will bring together dozens of carriers and vendors to test the interoperability of IMS-based infrastructure components in a real-world setting. Providing a test-bed for the full spectrum of hardware, processes and services needed to assemble an effective next-generation delivery platform, GMI2006 is designed to validate MSF Release 3 Implementation Agreements covering a wide range of topics including roaming across multiple network types (including cellular and WiFi), QoS issues (including session border control and bandwidth management), and interoperability with 3GPP release 4.

Five of the world's top carriers - BT, KT, NTT, Verizon and Vodafone and a world class test facility UNH-IOL - will host the event to provide world-class networked test facilities spanning 3 continents. Comprising a massive 'real network' trial of the MSF IMS-compatible (IP Multimedia System) Release 3 architecture, this event is critically important to any carrier or vendor committed to building or implementing infrastructure elements compatible with IMS.

About Acme Packet

Acme Packet, the leader in session border control solutions, enables service providers to deliver trusted, first class interactive communications--voice, video and multimedia sessions--across IP network borders. Our Net-Net family has been selected by over 325 service providers in nearly 70 countries, including 21 of the top 25 wireline and wireless providers in the world, to satisfy critical security, service assurance and regulatory requirements in wireline, cable and wireless networks. These deployments support multiple applications--from VoIP trunking to hosted enterprise and residential services; multiple protocols--SIP, H.323, MGCP/NCS and H.248; and multiple border points--interconnect, access network and data center. For more information, contact us at +1 781.328.4400, or visit www.acmepacket.com.

(Note to Editors: Acme Packet, etc. are trademarks of Acme Packet. All other trademarks are the property of their respective owners.)

Acme Packet Safe Harbor Statement

Statements contained herein that are not historical fact may be forward-looking statements within the meaning of Section 27A of the Securities Act of 1933 and Section 21E of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934. Such forward-looking statements may relate, among other things, to our position in the session border control market, our expected financial and operating results, our ability to build and grow Acme Packet, the benefits of our product, and our ability to achieve our goals, plans and objectives. Such forward-looking statements do not constitute guarantees of future performance and are subject to a variety of risks and uncertainties that could cause our actual results to differ materially from those anticipated. These include, but are not limited to: difficulties in growing our customer base, difficulties leveraging market opportunities, difficulties providing solutions that meet the needs of customers, poor product sales, long sales cycles, difficulty developing new products, difficulty in relationships with vendors and partners, higher risk in international operations, difficulty managing rapid growth, and increased competition. Additional factors that could cause actual results to differ materially form those projected or suggested in any forward-looking statements are contained in our recent filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission, including those factors discussed under the caption "Risk Factors" in such filings.


Analysts:
Acme Packet
Kevin Mitchell, [phone]
[e-mail]
or
Media:
Connect2 Communications
Aimee Ridgway, [phone], ext. 5
[e-mail]
or
Investors:
Acme Packet
Brian Norris, [phone]
[e-mail]



Source: Business Wire (October 26, 2006 - 2:30 PM EST)

News by QuoteMedia
www.quotemedia.com

[lady*b]

Financials will be released Nov. 7, fwiw

[goofyfoot]

The Motley Fool came out with an article this afternoon, 10/20/2006, at 5:15 p.m.:

http://www.fool.com/news/mft/2006/mft06102051.htm?source=eptyholnk303100&logvisit=y&npu=y&am....

According to this article, APKT has a very successful future ahead.

[goofyfoot]

Bridge,

Thanks for your post and the link to the prospectus. APKT seems like a great company.

Chuck

[lady*b]

Acme Packet (APKT)

prospectus: http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1130258/000104746906011997/a2173071zs-1a.htm

Credit Suisse $6.50-$7.50
11.5 mil shares offered
Week of 10/9

Acme Packet(APKT) prices 11.5mm shares at $9.50
10/12/2006

http://www.acmepacket.com

Business Provides session border controllers that enable interactive communications, such as VoIP.
Industry Telecomm-Equip


Market Cap $447.1
Revenues $58
Net Income $11

Company Address 71 Third Avenue
Burlington, MA
Phone Number 781-328-4400

QUIET PERIOD ENDS: 11/21/06

Underwriters:
Goldman Sachs
Credit Suisse
J.P. Morgan
ThinkEquity Partners

DAY ONE: Posted by: lady1242
In reply to: lady1242 who wrote msg# 292 Date:10/13/2006 12:07:18 PM
Post #of 349

APKT - 14.80, hit 16.19- congrats to any who were able to buy at 9.50 in primary

[goofyfoot]

Press Release

Here's the link:
http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/061019/20061019006076.html?.v=1

Source: Acme Packet, Inc.
Acme Packet Announces Closing of Public Offering and Underwriters' Exercise of Option to Purchase Additional Shares
Thursday October 19, 5:15 pm ET

BURLINGTON, Mass.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Acme Packet, Inc. (NASDAQ: APKT - News) today announced the completion of its initial public offering of 11.5 million common shares at a price of $9.50 per share. Of the shares sold in the offering, 8.0 million shares were offered by the Company and 3.5 million shares were offered by selling stockholders. The Company also announced today that the underwriters of its initial public offering exercised in full their option to purchase an additional 1.7 million common shares from the Company. OK, what does this mean to the share price, which is $16.49, right now?

Goldman, Sachs & Co. is the sole book-running manager, Credit Suisse is co-lead manager, and JPMorgan and ThinkEquity Partners are co-managers for the offering. A copy of the final prospectus relating to the offering may be obtained by contacting Goldman, Sachs & Co., Attn: Prospectus Department, 85 Broad Street, New York, New York 10004, via fax at 212-902-9316 or via e-mail at [e-mail].

This press release shall not constitute an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy, nor shall there be any sale of these securities in any state or jurisdiction in which such offer, solicitation or sale would be unlawful prior to registration or qualification under the securities laws of any such state or jurisdiction.

About Acme Packet, Inc. Acme Packet, Inc., the leader in session border control solutions, enables service providers to deliver trusted, first class interactive communications - voice, video and multimedia sessions - across IP network borders.


Contact:
Investor Relations:
Acme Packet
Brian Norris, [phone]
[e-mail]
or
Industry Analysts:
Acme Packet
Kevin Mitchell, [phone]
[e-mail]
or
Trade and Business Press:
Connect2 Communications
Rich Williams, [phone]
[e-mail]

Source: Acme Packet, Inc.

[goofyfoot]

Welcome to the Acme Packet message board!

I'm a novice investor, compared to most, yet maybe more experienced than some. I've made some money in the market, sometimes by accident, and sometimes due to (other people's) technical analysis and what market sentiment I could read. Yet, I've lost money these ways, as well.

In any case, I believe that Acme Packet presents a good opportunity for an investor who is looking to make a 40 to 50% return on their investment between today (10/19/2006) and six months from now, literally to the day. After that, I believe Acme Packet will be faced with competition from Cisco, and possibly a Chinese organization.

Therefore, this isn't a long term investment for me, though the company may develop another product line and compete in a different market.

Since no options are currently offered on this security, this is a good place for me to start. I really would like to understand options trading, and if someone wishes to use this board to post POSITIVE options investment advice, that would be fine. POSITIVE discussions about other stocks are OK, too.

However, if anyone spams this board, or REPEATEDLY bashes APKT, well, your posts will be deleted. Repeating bashings and spams result in BANS.

I wish every APKT investor good luck, and if you feel like posting, feel free!