ADC Therapeutics SA (ADCT)

[ljk]

Good morning, Tom!

I sure did notice. I was hoping for a Sell in the pre-market, but that was overly optimistic. Nevertheless, it's sure making a very nice move. :)

Hope you had a happy holiday.

Linda

[OldAIMGuy]

Good morning Linda, Did you see that ADCT posted it's first profit in over two years?

http://biz.yahoo.com/rc/031202/tech_adc_earns_3.html

There's also a bunch of product related items in the press today.

Price is up nicely.

Best regards, Tom

[OldAIMGuy]

Hi Linda, I use StockCharts.com and put in "Accumulation/Distribution" as one of the graph additions. It's nice to see it and the "Williams%R" items confirm the price movement and also AIM's recommendations.



It looks like the stock completed "distribution" in August and has started to develop some support. As far as Tea Leaves go this is usually a good sign.

Best regards, Tom

[ljk]

Yes, there is an advantage in buying the stocks under $5 a share if you use the leverage by buying more shares, and if they go up!

Interestingly, I bought at 2.64 and today's range has been 2.65-2.78. It didn't drop as low as my price yesterday, even though my price yesterday was in the middle of the day's range, too. Today the market has been vacillating between being down some and up some, a day in which a lot of stocks were down some and up some, too. So that suggests to me there's a bit of buying in ADCT right now, since it was more up than down.

I know you can't make a big case for this on the basis of one day's action, but I agree that the telecom industry is due for a break to the upside and like you, I think ADCT could do well in such an atmosphere.

Linda

[OldAIMGuy]

Hi Linda, One nice thing about stocks under $5/share is that they tend to be quite a bit more volatile that higher priced shares. Don't ask me why, but it's been confirmed by dozens of academic studies.

Because they move in larger percents than their more expensive brethern, they tend to be good AIM stocks, all other things being the same.

A move from $2 to $3 is only a buck, but it's also a 50% move.

Best regards, Tom

[ljk]

I held this with you, long ago, but let a lot of things go in the bear market. It seems to be a bit of a bargain right now. I'm picking up several things, but I'll double the position, as an "add" when there's an opportunity. Meanwhile, I have no complaints in my ONE DAY of ownership. lol. The little thing is up over 2.6% today.

Thanks for the precis. I always have appreciated your diligence and your generosity in sharing it.

Linda

[OldAIMGuy]

Hi Linda, I've held this one for a long time. My assumption was that in the world of telecom. equipment, ADCT would be one of the early "recovery" stocks because of the product line and where its used in the system.

Well, it's been a lot longer wait than I ever expected. Maybe that will make it all the sweeter when it does come.

We own shares of this in several different accounts.

Here's what Value Line has to say about it currently:
"ADC Telecommunications is making some progress to restore profitability. In the face of steep spending reductions by the telecom carriers (its primary customers), ADC is continuing to lower both fixed and operating costs. In July, the company again reduced its pro forma quarterly break-even revenue point to $180 million (from $190 million in the April period).

However, there is no indication that ADC's end market is recovering. The company may benefit from increases in telephone carrier spending, stimulated by the FCC's August ruling to deregulate broadband, as well as from Defense Department contracts to build a global optical network. But the level and pace of investments in these new areas, as well as their impact on ADC's top line, remain uncertain. In the meantime, the Broadband Infrastructure and Access group (about 60% of total revenue) shows declining numbers, both sequentially and compared with last year's tally. Software systems and systems integration services are showing some improvement. and sequential increases. And in March ADC announced a multi-year contract with Deutsche Telecom for the Singl.eView billing system. But the company's focus on sales to major accounts will likely result in longer sales cycles. ADC's third-quarter sales came in slightly below our expectations, and we are at this time lowering our fiscal 2003 total by $15 million, to $765 million.

The company's improved financial resources give it added flexibility. With the recent addition of $400 million of convertible debt, cash increased to nearly $750 million. ADC now has ample resources to sustain operations for several years, as well as the option to expand through selective acquisitions.

ADCT shares are ranked Average (3) for the year ahead, but have long-term appeal. The timing for ADC's upside, however, will in large part depend on the strength and speed of an economic recovery.

Terese S. Fabian October 3, 2003"

Further, they expect ADCT to be break-even by next quarter and to have slight earnings starting the quarter after that. They have a lot of "purchasing power" with all that cash right now. If they do decide to go on an acquisition safari, they have plenty of ammo.

Best regards, Tom

[ljk]

Hi, Tom:

I took an entry position yesterday. I may double it. Or not. :)



Linda

[OldAIMGuy]

And yet more news......

"ADC Announces New Sales Leadership and Structure
Tuesday October 7, 7:10 am ET
New Structure Focuses on Key Geographic Regions"

http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/031007/75231_1.html

TV

[OldAIMGuy]

More News......

"Iowa Telecom Installing ADC's Dynamic Transaction Management Platform
Tuesday October 7, 7:00 am ET
Will Use Singl.eView for All Its Services"

http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/031007/75089_1.html

TV

[OldAIMGuy]

More News......

"ADC and Mid-Tex Cellular Team up in Successful Software Defined Radio Field Trial
Monday October 6, 11:00 am ET
ADC's Digivance LRCS Base Station Model Proven in SDR Deployment"

http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/031006/65164_1.html

[OldAIMGuy]

More News......

"Telecom New Zealand Taps ADC for Convergent Pre- and Post-paid Billing
Tuesday September 30, 7:00 am ET"

http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/030930/305035_1.html

TV

[OldAIMGuy]

There's been quite a bit of news activity on ADCT recently. The price is responding well, too.

"ADC Signs Exclusive OEM Agreement with Colubris Networks to Deliver Integrated Solution for Deploying Wi-Fi Hotspots over DSL
Monday September 29, 7:00 am ET"

http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/030929/295166_1.html

Best regards, Tom

[OldAIMGuy]

Hi T, ADCT still has its work cut out for itself. Improved from its low it still needs a lot of work. Hope the telecoms start to let some purchasing orders soon.

Best regards, Tom

[tandav]

chart test only, ignore


lets see if the chart can be seen

[OldAIMGuy]

Hi Keith, I just got back from Alabama where we attended a wedding. Thanks for the updates on ADCT. Wasn't here on Friday to read about them.

Looks like the market likes the changes okay so far. The stock's now double its recent low point.

This stuff's going to wreak havoc on the Speculation component of the IW in a few more weeks!

As my Boy Scout leader taught us:
BE PREPARED!!!

Best regards, Tom

[LemonHead]

10:14am 11/01/02 [ADCT] ADC TELECOM SETS UNSPECIFIED Q4 RESTRUCTURING CHARGE

10:13am 11/01/02 [ADCT] ADC TELECOM TO ELIMINATE 72 JOBS

10:14am 11/01/02 [ADCT] ADC TELECOM TO END IAN PLATFORM DEVELOPMENT

10:10am 11/01/02 [HZO] MARINEMAX IN 4-YR YACHT DISTRIBUTION PACT WITH HATTERAS

10:09am 11/01/02 [ADCT] ADC TELECOM SELLS AUSTRALIA PASSIVE PHOTONICS UNIT

[OldAIMGuy]

Hi Keith, The market seems to be liking this news. Price about $1.40 this AM. A lot of my dogs are shedding fleas.

Best regards, Tom

[LemonHead]

Morning Tom, Here is some news on patent win.

http://www.businesswire.com/

BW2048 OCT 30,2002 4:03 PACIFIC 07:03 EASTERN

( BW)(MN-ADC)(ADCT) ADC Wins RF Circuit Module Patent Infringement Suit


Business Editors & High-Tech Writers

MINNEAPOLIS--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Oct. 30, 2002--ADC (Nasdaq:ADCT; www.adc.com) today announced that it has resolved a patent infringement action against PCI Technologies, a suit ADC filed in 2001 to enforce a patent relating to ADC's radio frequency (RF) modules used in its RFWorx(R) platform. Under the resolution, ADC will receive a monetary payment and PCI must discontinue its MAXNET line of RF modules, as they existed at the time ADC filed suit. PCI will redesign the product to conform with agreed upon specifications. ADC has reserved the right to pursue PCI for infringement of any other ADC patents, including any future ADC patents that could provide additional protection for ADC's RF modules.
The RFWorx platform is designed to help multiple service operators (MSOs) deliver traditional video and future targeted services over the same network by balancing headend signals with minimal service interruptions.
"This is an excellent outcome for ADC," said Rick Roscitt, chairman and CEO for ADC. "A great deal of research and development dollars are spent each year to innovate new products for cable, wireline and wireless carriers. This suit sends a clear message to our competition, customers, and shareholders that the cable network business is very important to ADC's future, and that ADC will protect its research and development dollars by enforcing its patents."
"RFWorx and other ADC products help cable providers build the best carrier-class networks available today," said Rob Cain, director of broadband products for ADC. "We'll continue to innovate new technical advances and enhance existing products for our service provider customers."
ADC was represented by its patent litigation counsel, Alan G. Carlson, Philip P. Caspers, Timothy A. Lindquist, and Anthony R. Zeuli of Merchant & Gould, Minneapolis.

About ADC

ADC is The Broadband Company(TM). ADC offers high-quality, value-added solutions of network equipment, software and systems integration services that enable communications service providers to deliver high-speed Internet, data, video and voice services to consumers and businesses worldwide. ADC (Nasdaq:ADCT) has sales into nearly 100 countries and is included in the Standard & Poor's 500 Index and the NASDAQ 100 Index. Learn more about ADC Telecommunications, Inc. at www.adc.com.


--30--cr/ms*

CONTACT: ADC, Minneapolis
Public Relations:
Chuck Grothaus, 952/917-0306
[e-mail]
or
Investor Relations:
Mark Borman, 952/917-0590
[e-mail]

KEYWORD: MINNESOTA
INDUSTRY KEYWORD: CABLE COMPUTERS/ELECTRONICS LEGAL/LAW
NETWORKING TELECOMMUNICATIONS
SOURCE: ADC Telecommunications, Inc.

Keith
PS - Great post on the AIM board this am. I saved it...

[OldAIMGuy]

ADCT is doing well this AM. Top of the N-100 right now - up 16%.

Best regards, Tom

[OldAIMGuy]

Here's a hypothetical ADCT history. Note that it ran out of cash quite some time ago. The extra shares owned will some time be of some benefit assuming the telecom equip companies do eventually get some business again!



This method usually does just fine with stocks even when they fall in price 50%. However, it can't handle an 81% drop very gracefully!

Best regards, Tom

[OldAIMGuy]

ADCT Short Interest steady since December's blip.......

 
 Date      Short Position    Ave. Day Vol.    Ratio* 
 03/02       6,614,171         6,545,744       1.01    
 02/02       6,708,864         6,388,623       1.05 A   
 01/02       6,570,819         9,732,938       0.68 T A   
 12/01      13,824,667        10,508,178       1.32 T    
 11/01       8,480,218         9,558,453       0.89 A   
 10/01       9,008,900         8,047,085       1.12 A   
 

+ monthly data as of settlement on the 15th of each month.
* Ratio = Shares Short / Avg Daily Volume; it may be used as a rough measure of days to cover.
Remark: T - in top 20 list, A - in alert list (lists are only created for the last 6 months )

[OldAIMGuy]

Hi ES, Thanks. I guess we'll have to wait to see what April Fools Day brings.


Best regards, Tom

[ergo sum]

ADCT in play: 7:04AM ADC Telecom expands relationship with Cox Comm (ADCT) 4.00: Announces that Cox Communications will take delivery of nearly 40 Cuda 12000 cable modem termination systems in four regions by the end of March. ADC will supply the systemsto Cox networks in Northern Virginia, Santa Barbara, Calif., Greater Oklahoma and Greater Kansas. from briefing.com

[OldAIMGuy]

Hi NW, Money's still with ADCT. I think ST it will respond more quickly to market changes because of its smaller size.

Best regards, Tom

[NorthWesterner]

Which one do you like better going forward?

___________________________________________________
The cheaper the paper, the more important the information. Peter Lynch.

[OldAIMGuy]

Hi NW, Back some time ago, when both LU and ADCT were about the same price (around $18, I think) I swapped my remaining LU to buy more ADCT.

Well, that looked pretty smart for quite a while. Now it isn't as pretty a sight!

I've not had much activity other than buys in ADCT in quite a while. Both LU and ADCT will do relatively well once the baby Bells reopen their purchasing depts.

It would appear that SBC/Ameritech is looking at an ad promo on DLS in the midwest. I've had a "survey call" from an "independent" company about how I use DSL for my business, etc. Now, the only way they could have known my # was through Ameritech, since it's unlisted.

I think the next 18 months will be very interesting for telecoms.

Best regards, Tom

[NorthWesterner]

I have also owned ADCT for a while, not as actively trading it as the AIM program would, but following the guidance of the NAIC SSG and getting out of much of my position close to its high. I still own a bit, and am looking at the possibllity of adding to my position. But I think LU may be the better bet at this point.

___________________________________________________
The cheaper the paper, the more important the information. Peter Lynch.

[OldAIMGuy]

Telecoms starting to look a bit more interesting to investors.....

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B98D867D5%2D2AC4%2D4EEC%2DA838%2D731C0E2195B4%7D&am...

Happy St. Patty's day,
Tom