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Hi Tom,
Sorry that there is an oops. Did I type that? The S&P500 gain/loss is at -0.89 or there abouts.
There was also a buy of 61 shares of INTC.
Pete
Hi Pete, Thanks for the good work. I'd noticed that there was enough sag in the prices of some of these to generate some buys. Several with loads of cash will benefit from a few extra shares.
The files are uploaded to
http://www.aim-users.com/pic.htm
for everyone's review.
Best regards, Tom
Update for 7/18/2004
Buy 50 CBK @ 15.47
Buy 14 CCU @ 34.82
Buy 68 CDN @ 12.91
Buy 30 FHCC @ 14.34
Buy 61 KEA @ 12.85
Buy 63 SMTC @ 19.24
Hi Pete, We're adding to your burden this week with a new PIC Candidate. It's Emulex Corporation. It showed up in Value Line last Friday as a new bad boy with a Timeliness of "5." While still on the Highest Growth Stocks list, it is showing signs of internal stress. This is one investors should study very carefully before laying down cash. It's certainly nicely out of favor right now, so there's always a chance the problems are already included in the price/share.
AIM could have done well with this one. Whether the future is also bright remains to be seen.
Our starting price will be $11.41 per share with $6300 being invested in 552.147 shares and $3700 being reserved in Cash for future AIMing.
Best regards, Tom
Several of the PIC stocks are coming into buying range today with the rather dramatic NASDAQ downstroke. You can check them out at
http://www.aim-users.com/pic.htm
Best regards, Tom
Hi Pete, If there's any kind of "surprise" that makes the markets dip (lots of possibilities out there) AIM'll be able to put quite a bit of cash back to work. That would bode well for the future.
I'd love to see some of the PIC Dogs get back up enough to raise some cash. There's several that are pretty deeply under water still.
I'm going to put up PLAB over on the main AIM BB as an example of a "cyclical growth" type of stock. Nice growth, but with plenty of bumps along the way for AIM to work.
Best regards, Tom
Hi Tom,
I just wish that it was my money in the piclist.
I wouldnt be so worried about living then.
I believe by year end that aim will beat them all again.
Pete
Hi PDAH, Thanks for the updates on the PIC list again. They look great.
It appears that BBDB will be ripe for another buy here as June closes out. The one month delay tactic seems to be working out nicely so far on many of the PIC candidates. BBDB is one of those.
For those interested in seeing the rest of the PIC candidates activities of late, please go to
http://www.aim-users.com/pic.htm
AIM, Buy and Hold and the S&P500 are all in nearly a dead heat for the year to date - ie not going anywhere very fast!
Still since January, AIM's been making small changes in Equity/Cash in many of the holdings, taking profits and buying more low priced shares when the time's been right.
Best regards, Tom
Hi Rick, The I-Wave's percentages are shown weekly at my AIM web site. They relate to what would be a logical starting cash reserve for an AIM account using a single company stock as its equity. For instance, you might want to have 32% cash on hand to start a single stock AIM account right now. This is fairly near the Low Risk territory of the I-Wave (30% and below).
Contrasting that, if it were March of 2000, the I-Wave would have been suggesting starting that same account with nearly 75% Cash in reserve (above 50% is where the High Risk territory starts). So, the I-wave is built to give us a relative risk signal about market conditions and translates that into a percent of cash.
Don Carlson had spent some time with the I-Wave data base to confirm that 80% of the data was between 30% and 50% with just 10% falling on either extreme of that range. He'd then gone on to figure out what the standard deviations were at 1.4. His purpose was to see how those values matched up to my own low and high risk territories.
The bell curve of data starts in 1982 and is still continuing. Even with the bubble and collapse the bell curve didn't shift.
Best regards, Tom
Tom, could you explain what these percents stand for on the Iwave weekly. Is this the standard deviation of 1.4. What does the the 34 and 47 refer too??? thanx
{Those values if I remember correctly fell at around 34% and 47% I believe (should have written them down). Don's done some testing using the I-Wave as a filter for AIM with some positive results. }
Hi Pete, Thanks for the update. Nice to see some selling activity going on.
Best regards, Tom
06/19/2004 Update
Executed Aim Trades
Sell 15 CGNX @ 36.14
Buy 58 KEA @ 13.10
Sell 27 LEG @ 26.84
Sell 33 VPI @ 16.70
Sell 29 ZQK @ 24.60
Buy 437 BBDB @ 4.10
Buy 335 TLAB @ 7.90
Buy 528 WTSLA @ 5.60
Well, we've put another week behind us, along with the first five months of the year. Our presidential election is no more decided today than a month ago, so most likely we'll have that bit of uncertainty following us for a while yet. With the market's volatility on the low side, I would imagine that long term investors, short term traders and AIM users alike are feeling a bit frustrated.
With 5 months of essentially flat markets, where should we be looking? Interest rates have been rising (both long and short term) in anticipation of the next move by the FED. Earnings have also been rising and we've been receiving some good mid-Quarter revisions from some companies. It would appear that general business conditions are improving.
Where will investors go if they find themselves frustrated with poor overall performance from the stock market? Will they retreat to Bonds even with the risks involved? Will they hoard Gold and its paper equals with the acknowledged rise in inflation? Will they return to the "value" segment of the stock market hoping for protection should things get ugly in the world?
The Savings and Loan division of VIEW would approve of a short term interest rate increase. They'd welcome the improvement in Money Market Rates. I'm guessing that many companies that never paid dividends in the past are contemplating it now. Those that do pay should continue the trend of increasing payouts as profits allow.
As time marches forward, we get closer to the great demographic shift that will be taking place in the U.S. Baby Boomers will increasingly look like Old Farts. Business will shift with this. The "boomlets" that have occurred will help fill in gaps. Healthcare and related geriatrics related businesses are going to feel the pressure. So will healthcare costs, insurances, etc. This is going to be a tough one to get through.
Terrorists will, by their own doing create an economic surge of its own. While traditional efforts will continue, new Technology will step in as the watchdogs of this current era. New ways of scrutinizing everyone and everything will be developed.
The last comprehensive article I read on Energy indicated that about the time the Baby Boomers retire, world energy will have peaked in production. Now "peak" doesn't mean "stop" but it does mean an end to expansion. It will plateau for a time and then start a long decline. Energy's about to become more precious with time. Are you preparing for this?
A whole world's worth of Consumerism will kick in as the East starts down the path of economic growth.
Lots of things to think about!!!
Best regards, Tom
Pete had graciously updated the PIC list again this week. You may view the results at:
http://www.aim-users.com/pic.htm
This week shows a Buy in
APCC @ $17.53
WTSLA @ $6.20
Best regards,
Tom
Good morning Pete, Both look like nice moves. Thanks for the update.
TV
5/30/2004 Update
Buy 420 Shares BBDB.TO @ 4.57
SELL 28 Shares GPS @ 24.15
Hi Tom,
I will check the coding in the html and the file name and
make sure that they match.
Pete
Thanks Pete, I just reviewed them and uploaded them to the web site.
All looks okay so far. I think we should see our PIC list jump ahead of the SPY again soon for the YTD.
You might want to take a look at the coding on FHCC. The gif file was saved as FHCCp.gif and the Html coding called for FHCCP.GIF. It appears the case of the type needs to be exactly the same. I've always used lower case in both the gif file names and the html coding.
Best regards, Tom
Hi Tom
YTD aim -2.05
BH -3.02
S&P -1.65
Hi Pete, How are we doing on a YTD basis compared to the S&P these days?
Best regards, Tom
Hi Pete, So far the 30 day rule has worked pretty well on the Buy side of our AIM/PIC accounts. It seemed necessary to differentiate between the buy and sell sides in some fashion since AIM can't sell all the shares, but can run our of cash.
In other words, we need to have different rules for our Equity Warehouses' Sales and Purchasing Departments. The rule in the Sales dept. is "Sell all you can whenever you can." Where in Purchasing, it's "Let's wait a month and see if there's even better savings for the Company."
This is much the way it works in real businesses. Sales people are always happy to walk off with an order in their pocket. Purchasing people are tough and will "shop" your best price for a better deal for the company.
In our case, we already know the "specifications" are the same each time we buy, no matter from whom we buy. On the other side, we'll sell all the market will consume at a specific price. We can be just as indiscriminate on the sell side as the buy side, but our limited resource of CASH needs more protection than our inventory of stocks.
Best regards, Tom
Hi Tom
Well That is why we have a 30 day wait between buys. So at least we might just get more shares. You know more bang for the buck so to say.
Pete
Hi Pete, If we executed all those BUYs we'd say Bye Bye to all our cash!!!
TV
5/16/2004 Update
We are waiting for the 4 week (30 day) time period before any of the following buys can be executed.
Buy 86 APCC @ 16.86
Buy 79 CDN @ 13.15
Buy 26 CSCO @ 21.24
Buy 130 SCH @ 9.69
Buy 194 TLAB @ 8.99
Hi Pete, Well, after quite a spell of not many additions to the PIC list, here this week we're adding yet another.
FHCC, First Health Group Corp., seems to have had a couple of Medical Emergencies since last October!
While not the most exciting AIM stock I can conceive (BETA = 0.55, Stock Price Stability = 70) it might be a nice addition to someone's portfolio for the long term. Book value and earnings are expected to nearly double in the next 5 years. Revenue growth doesn't seem to be that predictable right now, however.
We can put this new PIC choice into the portfolio at $17.12 with 55% invested and 45% held back for Cash Reserve. That should give us 321.262 shares to work with in the future.
I believe this is the first healthcare related stock to be added to the PIC list.
Best regards, Tom
Hi Pete, Thanks for adding SWFT. It looks like it should be an interesting choice.
Nice cyclical action inside a broad range. AIM should be able to trim some profits out of this one.
Best regards, Tom
5/3/04 correction
Sell 68 SCH @ 10.29 has been reversed out
Hi Pete, Thanks for the update. AIM/PIC sure has a way of figuring out when the right time to spend money is. Now all we have to do is wait for these latest seeds to sprout.
Best regards, Tom
05/09/04 Update
Buy Orders Ignored due to time (less than 30 days or no money)
Buy 62 APPC @ 17.56
Buy 105 CDN @ 12.76
Buy 104 SCH @ 9.93
Buy 654 WTSLA @ 5.30
Buy 38 CSCO @ 21.69
5/3/2004 update
Buy 63 APCC @ 18.77
Buy 25 INTC @ 25.73
Buy 157 PLAB @ 14.89
Buy 68 SCH @ 10.29
Hi Don and Pete, Re: Settings....
Thanks for answering Don's questions. In the header there's the start dates and prices of the various stocks in the PIC list (I think I need to add CBK, however).
Since this is an exercise of two parts, the PIC list can be used for a "trader" or an AIM user. PIC contains a selection process that's based in Quality and in Value. AIM provides management of those selected equities over time.
Obviously the selection process isn't perfect as witnessed by some of our less spectacular components! However, the overall results have been quite good and continue to best the S&P500 Index on a regular basis.
Most of the PIC stocks are no longer on Value Line's "Highest Growth Stocks" list (page 49 of the Index section). Most didn't last long after they hit #5 Timeliness. Even so, these companies had shown excellent management in their own markets over long periods of time. Therefore, it appears this is the reason many have come back strongly as time has moved forward.
Pete has been kind enough to volunteer his time to update the PIC list Histories quite frequently (certainly much more frequently than I was managing). Thanks again Pete. Please let me know if it becomes too great a burden and I'll go back to monthly refreshing of the graphs. You mentioned giving up your W98 computer and trouble with the graphics in your W2K machine. Please let me know if this doesn't work out. I'm still chugging along with my W98 machine at the office but am using WXP at home. I still update the prices weekly in my Newport software, so it wouldn't be hard to take up the task again.
Best regards, Tom
Hi Don,
I can't do private replies so must be public.
1. Buy safe 10%
2. Sell safe 10%
3,4,5,7 Min buy/sell(dollar amount to trade) is 5% of pc
6. Commisions are not figured in.
8. Yes all positions started with $10K
9. Were started at different times base on IW for cash amount.
10. Quotes are from netstock Each friday at 6pm
we only update once per week on friday with trades occuring at friday's closing prices.
Hope this all helps
Pete
Hi Pete, Re: Update to the AIM/PIC list.
Take your time. Moving is a traumatic experience! I'm two weeks behind on my Newsletter with no excuse, so don't feel bad!
Best regards, Tom
Hi Tom,
Moving is done except for unpacking lots of boxes.
I did loose the win98se machine so the GIF's And HTML will be late for last week. Under win2k the cut and paste is a pain in the butt so I may just update issues that have activity during the week. Let me know if this is ok with you.
Pete
Latest PIC/AIM Trades for the week of 4/18:
Pic list updates for 4/18/2004
Buy 60 CDN @ 14.08
Sell 32 VPI @ 15.60
Thanks to Pete for keeping us up to date on these events. PIC and AIM/PIC continue to do very well compared to market averages.
Best regards, Tom
Hi Tom,
Glad it was a safe round trip.
Remember the 4/18 update may be a bit delayed.
I am moving the 15th thru the 18th. The cable company
is supposed to move my account to the new address on
the 17th. So wish me luck.
Pete
p.s. I paid the tax man today both uncle sam and state of georgia... bummer
Hi Pete, Thanks, I just got back this evening from a 1000+ mile round trip. I'll update tomorrow at the site.
Best regards, Tom
Hi Pete, I thought I'd uploaded them. I see that they didn't get there, however. I'll upload later today.
Best regards, Tom
Hi Tom,
Yes I saw the jump in sunw.
I am courious...why have the 3/28 graphs not been uploaded??
Did I not send them to you???
Pete
Hi Pete, A big day for the PIC list. Mostly green arrows. Thanks for the update.
Did you see that jump in SUNW??
Best regards, Tom
4/4/2004 Update
Vealie MKL
Sell VOL 23 @ 25.60
Sell WMS 47 @ 43.38
Vealie ZQK
I see this AM that CCU was upgraded by Schwab to "Outperform." We'll have to see if that helps our PIC position as well.
Best regards, Tom
Hi Pete, Well, if the updates had been done with today's enthusiasm, there might have been some trades!
I uploaded all the graphs to the PIC web page.
http://www.aim-users.com/pic.htm
So everyone can see the pretty pictures. I've been watching CBK closely since we added it to the PIC list. It's quite happy today up over 3%.
Best regards, Tom
Good morning Pete, Well, it's been a while since the PIC list went tradeless. Too bad PLAB didn't cooperate and stay down long enough for us to make the second buy. But then maybe we need the I-Wave to drop back to Low Risk to indicate a better environment for spending our money a bit quicker.
Thanks for keeping us up to speed. I noted that our newest addition, CBK, was in positive territory for its update. It will be interesting to see if it, Kohls and some of the other retail and specialty retail stocks on the PIC list start to move in concert.
Best regards, Tom
3/28/2004 Update
There were no Aim Trades in the piclist as of fridays close.
PLAB even no longer wants to do a buy.
Pete
The PIC List graphs are all uploaded as of today. Peter was kind enough to squeeze in the updates for us even with his very busy weekend he had.
Thanks Pete.
http://www.aim-users.com/pic.htm
Interesting how Cisco was in the Sell mode not long ago and is now urging some Buying by AIM!
Best regards, Tom
Hi Pete, Sounds like a wonderful time. I'll be at my office in a couple of hours and will upload the graphs. Thanks for adding the CBK stock. That one looks interesting on a PIC "technical" level as well as a fundamental level.
Best regards, Tom
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