A.I.M. Users Bulletin Board (AIMUSERS)

[OldAIMGuy]

Steady, even as markets are heading into Summer.



OAG

[JDerb]

v-WAVE 3.0*

Suggested Starting Cash Value For New AIM Accounts/Positions

Individual Stocks
High Risk: At or above 51%
Neutral: Between 37 and 50%
Low Risk: At or below 36%

Diversified Funds
High Risk: At or above 34%
Neutral: Between 25 and 33%
Low Risk: At or below 24%
_________________________
Week of June 28th
_________________________

Short Term (18 Months)

Individual Stocks: 62% (Unchanged from previous week)

Diversified Mutual Funds or Portfolio: 41% (Unchanged from previous week)
__________________________

Long Term (3-5 Years)

Individual Stocks: 48% (Unchanged from previous week)

Diversified Mutual Funds
or Portfolio: 32% (Unchanged from previous week)

Oscillator: .38 (Down .04 from previous week)


*See posts #44585 and #44588

[Toofuzzy]

rosenw

Sounds like there were some splits along the way.

1) Decide if you are presently more bullish or bearish.

2) Use original cost basis or current price based on above.

3) If cost basis is way lower, start with zero cash and the first sale will provide your cash reserve.

But I'm
Toofuzzy

[Toofuzzy]

Hi Tom

My dad fought in WW2 also. Not much action but behind enemy lines at least once. He did printing of some sort.

He had to try riding a motorcycle once, got scared when he let out the clutch with too much gas I guess and jumped off. I guess he got out of that duty .

His brother, my uncle was in the Navy.

[OldAIMGuy]

Latest v-Wave histogram:



There's quite a bit of difference recently as to how the Dow 30, NASDAQ Comp and the S&P 500 are moving. I believe this is due to the breadth of the markets' movements. One stock can make a big splash in a shallow puddle.

Best wishes,
OAG Tom

[JDerb]

v-WAVE 3.0*

Suggested Starting Cash Value For New AIM Accounts/Positions

Individual Stocks
High Risk: At or above 51%
Neutral: Between 37 and 50%
Low Risk: At or below 36%

Diversified Funds
High Risk: At or above 34%
Neutral: Between 25 and 33%
Low Risk: At or below 24%
_________________________
Week of June 21st
_________________________

Short Term (18 Months)

Individual Stocks: 62% (Down 3 from previous week)

Diversified Mutual Funds or Portfolio: 41% (Down 2 from previous week)
__________________________

Long Term (3-5 Years)

Individual Stocks: 48% (Down 1 from previous week)

Diversified Mutual Funds
or Portfolio: 32% (Down 1 from previous week)

Oscillator: -.42 (Down 1.37 from previous week)


*See posts #44585 and #44588

[Make It Jake]

Many thanks, Tom - much appreciated.

[Make It Jake]

Hi rosenw - If you weren't AIMing the stock until now, I'd suggest just setting it up as an AIM "portfolio" starting with your 191 shares of stock at its current price and an equivalent amount of cash that you're planning to invest in it over time. (If you plan to adjust your recommended cash percentage based on the vWave, as many here do, you would allocate 49% of the total portfolio value to cash, based on the current vWave level. If I recall, "Classic AIM" would give you a 50/50 allocation of cash to stock, so both ways would come out more or less the same right now.)

With kind regards,
MIJ

[rosenw]

I want to convert a stock that I previously bought and subsequently sold portions of over the years to A.I.M. How should I factor in those prior sells so I can start fresh in regards to staring price and cash reserve values?

Here is an example of what I'm talking about:

Bought 100 shares on 2/13/2007 @ $10.00

Sold 100 share @24.685 on 9/7/2017

Sold 314 share @24.6701 on 9/7/2017

Sold 362 share @35.00 on 9/18/2020

Sold 37 shares @35.10 on 10/8/2020
===============================================================

Sold total 809 shares at an average price of $29.77146724351051

===============================================================

191 shares remaining

Thanks.

[OldAIMGuy]

Hi MIJ, Re: Fosback's High/Low Logic Index......................

I pull data from Barron's on a weekly basis. Mr. Fosback based his in the NYSE originally. Since Barron's had it for the NYSE and NASDAQ, I chose to combine both for my "Divergence Index." It works the same as Mr. Fosback's HLLI with it looking at both the number or new highs and lows and taking the Smaller of the values as a percentage of all issues traded in the week. There are weeks when NYSE and NASDAQ are in sync and some weeks when they're moving differently. In total, it works pretty well with the combo.

BARRON'S has been very consistent over the years. I have data from 1982 on to this week. It's an effective sentiment indicator, but is a bit fickle and can change direction quickly. Most libraries will have Barron's available. I subscribe to the On Line version as it saves me about a 10 mile drive (each way).

Hope this helps,
OAG Tom

[Make It Jake]

Tom - re: the High/Low Logic Index, can I ask you where you're sourcing your data?

I've been wanting to explore the HLLI but don't know of a good source for historical NH/NL data offhand. If I'm not mis-remembering, there were some quirks in how the data were being reported (some change over time affecting the first few weeks of a given year?), and I'd be curious about how you're handling that (if I remembered it correctly in the first place).

Thanks as always!

[OldAIMGuy]

.....and an Image to go along with the data..................



Indexes were up even while market breadth was lower. Also, the number of new highs and lows over the previous 52 weeks was higher making the Fosback High/Low Logic Index bearish. Valuations are still lofty, too. This puts the dividend yield of stocks a bit below their average.

Keep some Powder dry,
OAG Tom

[The Grabber]

Of course he was!
And that he lived a good long life after going through all of that is a testament of how important a positive attitude is to to a long life.

[JDerb]

v-WAVE 3.0*

Suggested Starting Cash Value For New AIM Accounts/Positions

Individual Stocks
High Risk: At or above 51%
Neutral: Between 37 and 50%
Low Risk: At or below 36%

Diversified Funds
High Risk: At or above 34%
Neutral: Between 25 and 33%
Low Risk: At or below 24%
_________________________
Week of June 14th
_________________________

Short Term (18 Months)

Individual Stocks: 65% (Unchanged from previous week)

Diversified Mutual Funds or Portfolio: 43% (Unchanged from previous week)
__________________________

Long Term (3-5 Years)

Individual Stocks: 49% (Unchanged from previous week)

Diversified Mutual Funds
or Portfolio: 33% (Unchanged from previous week)

Oscillator: .95 (Down .08 from previous week)


*See posts #44585 and #44588

[OldAIMGuy]

He was a nice man. He was a CPA, so not the Rambo type. He was more than a decade older than my parents, who were also WWII vets.

[The Grabber]

Wow!
You uncle truly was a patriot!

[OldAIMGuy]

Hi Toof,
We paid a price for that war in human loss and then paid for it again years later in inflation.

I guess there's no free lunch served with government overspending; Domino Effect or not.

Watching the WWII Vets in Normandy this week was eye opening. My uncle attempted to enlist 3 times in his 30s. He had just one lung (from pre-antibiotic pneumonia) and was turned away. Then, they drafted him anyway! He was one of many who stormed ashore at Normandy. He was 36 at the time. He lived and continued on until the war's conclusion. He lived into his late 80s.

Best wishes,
OAG Tom

[Toofuzzy]

I wonder what out economy would be like if we never entered the Viet Nam war.

No.reason as the Vietnamese hated the Chinese.

But I wonder if the Johnson social programs would have passed if Kennedy wasn't shot.

Toofuzzy

[Toofuzzy]

Hi Tom

It has been a long weight on DHT. Because of it's extreme cyclicality I hope to totally sell out eventually.

Toofuzzy

[OldAIMGuy]

Guess what! Another month has passed and along with it the first half of 2024. Here's where my AIM portfolios stand:

My 9 "Style" International ETF Portfolio:


My U.S. Business Sector ETF Portfolio (mostly Equal Cap Weight Sectors)


My 10 Common Stock Portfolio


My Retirement Account (after required distributions)


May turned out to be a pretty good month overall. Cash is slowly rebuilding as stocks and ETFs rise.

Best wishes,
OAG Tom

[The Grabber]

Hi Jon

Good advice Jon. Thanks
So we spent all of last week at S Padre Island with our son and his family.
Didn't crack the book, but I had it with me!

[OldAIMGuy]

Hi LongTimeAIMer,

Wow, I completely missed that bit of news. I've been busy porting all my regular software and apps from my 2014 laptop (main) computer over to a new one. So many passwords, so little time!!

There's a couple of software programs I may not be able to use again. I'm having trouble finding license IDs on stuff I've used for two decades! The one company still maintains a web presence and I've written to them. I'll just have to wait and see if their records are good!

I hope this didn't cause Warren any heart palpitations!

Best wishes,
OAG Tom

[AIM1979]

I know it's not normally done here but, On my X Twitter Feed today was this little gem.
Quoted from Yahoo FInance, the Stock was halted at 185.10 USD down -627,214.90

"A technical glitch on the New York Stock Exchange shortly after the market open on Monday temporarily showed incorrect stock prices or volatility halts on several stocks, most notably a 99.9% drop in the price of Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway (BRK-A) A-shares.

Berkshire Hathaway (BRK-B) B-shares, which trade at 1/1,500th the price of the A-shares, were down as much as 1.1% on Monday and appeared largely unaffected by the error, though volatility was pronounced in both issues as A-shares reopened for trading near 11:35 a.m. ET.

A NYSE spokesperson later said "a technical issue involving industry-wide price bands published by the Consolidated Tape Association’s Securities Information Processor triggered “limit-up/limit down” trading halts on up to 40 symbols listed on NYSE Group exchanges.

Price bands on securities prevent outsized volatility or extreme movements. The spokesperson said shortly before noon, the issue was resolved and trading in the impacted stocks resumed."

Buy from the scared ???

[OldAIMGuy]

Correction:

Euronet symbol is EEFT

OAG

[OldAIMGuy]

Hi JD, Re: v-Wave in living color...........................



It seems Earnings need to grow or interest rates and inflation need to drop for the markets to move much beyond where they are currently.

On a different topic, Value Line dropped SBUX from their 3-5 year growth model and replaced it with Euronet Worldwide (EEET). See the updated list of long term growth stocks here:
https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=174532376

Best wishes,
OAG Tom

[JDerb]

v-WAVE 3.0*

Suggested Starting Cash Value For New AIM Accounts/Positions

Individual Stocks
High Risk: At or above 51%
Neutral: Between 37 and 50%
Low Risk: At or below 36%

Diversified Funds
High Risk: At or above 34%
Neutral: Between 25 and 33%
Low Risk: At or below 24%
_________________________
Week of June 7th
_________________________

Short Term (18 Months)

Individual Stocks: 65% (Unchanged from previous week)

Diversified Mutual Funds or Portfolio: 43% (Unchanged from previous week)
__________________________

Long Term (3-5 Years)

Individual Stocks: 49% (Unchanged from previous week)

Diversified Mutual Funds
or Portfolio: 33% (Unchanged from previous week)

Oscillator: 1.03 (Down .08 from previous week)


*See posts #44585 and #44588

[JDerb]

Value Line is late on this week's issue.
I will post the numbers as soon as they are released.

Jon

[OldAIMGuy]

Hi JD, Re: v-Wave histogram.....................



The best I can make of this is "steady." I'm glad Mr. Lichello has been coaching me in 2024 on reducing some inventory as prices have risen. Now we're almost finished with the not very busy "Sell In May" crowd and I'm not sure what to expect for June.

Best wishes,
OAG Tom

[JDerb]

v-WAVE 3.0*

Suggested Starting Cash Value For New AIM Accounts/Positions

Individual Stocks
High Risk: At or above 51%
Neutral: Between 37 and 50%
Low Risk: At or below 36%

Diversified Funds
High Risk: At or above 34%
Neutral: Between 25 and 33%
Low Risk: At or below 24%
_________________________
Week of May 31st
_________________________

Short Term (18 Months)

Individual Stocks: 65% (Unchanged from previous week)

Diversified Mutual Funds or Portfolio: 43% (Unchanged from previous week)
__________________________

Long Term (3-5 Years)

Individual Stocks: 49% (Unchanged from previous week)

Diversified Mutual Funds
or Portfolio: 33% (Unchanged from previous week)

Oscillator: 1.11 (Down .09 from previous week)


*See posts #44585 and #44588

[JDerb]

Steve..

And remember to subtract your age from 100. That determines how many pages you should read before you decide whether or not you should finish the book. 😎

Take care.

Jon

[The Grabber]

Tom:
Don't be surprised if you get a bit upset by the histories presented relative to the FED, monetary policy and other such subjects

Thanks for the heads up!

At our age, we need to watch out for potential blood pressure spikes! 😉

[OldAIMGuy]

Hi Steve, Re: Dreman's book.............

I hope you enjoy it and get some goods out of it.

Don't be surprised if you get a bit upset by the histories presented relative to the FED, monetary policy and other such subjects!!!

OAG

[The Grabber]

Hi Tom.
RE: Dreman's new book...
Book was delivered last night!

'I found I had to read a section and then digest it for a few hours before moving onto the next. So, it took a while to get through the entire book.'

My review will probably take awhile as well given that it's 480 pages long; inclusive of the substantial notes, references and index.
😲

[OldAIMGuy]

Off Topic................

For those of you who like cars from the '50s and '60s, and who also like Pink Floyd, here's a video from the 1991 La Carrera Panamericana. I drove in this event in 1991 and 1994 taking 10th in class in '91 and 3rd in 1994. My dad and brother drove in 1992 and also took a 3rd in class.

BTW, we beat the guys from Pink Floyd even though their Jaguars were faster than ours. (ours was a production car where theirs were pure race cars). The reason was that we didn't crash or break our car! (they did!)

Best wishes,
OAG Tom

[OldAIMGuy]

Hi JD, Re: v-Wave current status...............................

I'd feel more comfortable if we saw the v-Wave closer to the Median value. Still, it's less than one standard deviation from that mark.



As Robert Heinlein said, "Climate is what you Expect, Weather is what you Get!"

The current v-Wave suggests it's a good idea to keep an umbrella handy!

Best wishes,
OAG Tom

[JDerb]

v-WAVE 3.0*

Suggested Starting Cash Value For New AIM Accounts/Positions

Individual Stocks
High Risk: At or above 51%
Neutral: Between 37 and 50%
Low Risk: At or below 36%

Diversified Funds
High Risk: At or above 34%
Neutral: Between 25 and 33%
Low Risk: At or below 24%
_________________________
Week of May 24th
_________________________

Short Term (18 Months)

Individual Stocks: 65% (Unchanged from previous week)

Diversified Mutual Funds or Portfolio: 43% (Unchanged from previous week)
__________________________

Long Term (3-5 Years)

Individual Stocks: 49% (Unchanged from previous week)

Diversified Mutual Funds
or Portfolio: 33% (Unchanged from previous week)

Oscillator: 1.20 (Down .09 from previous week)


*See posts #44585 and #44588

[OldAIMGuy]

Hi Steve, Re:Mr. Dreman's book..................

You, having lived through much of the history he discusses, will find much of that interesting. He goes into depth on various market events in dissecting the causes at the time. He also takes his time debunking Modern Portfolio Theory and much of the other investment theories that have been popularized over several decades. He then lays out tenants for some value measures and how history has been very kind to the stocks in those categories compared to more popular coat-tail chasing methods that have been popular.

I'm looking forward to hearing your thoughts in your "book review" when you've read it. I was heavily influenced by his 1977 book, "Psychology and the Stock Market" when I read it back in the '80s. This one is influential as well.

I found I had to read a section and then digest it for a few hours before moving onto the next. So, it took a while to get through the entire book.

Best wishes,
OAG Tom

[The Grabber]

Thanks Tom.

I added the book to my list at Amazon.
Looks very insightful as you said.

[OldAIMGuy]

Hi Toof, Re: DHT history on StockCharts......................

Those are some nice stair steps for AIM to climb!

https://schrts.co/xBbukNrK

Nice dividend, too (6%), which offers excellent Total Return over time.

Congratulations on the trade.

Best wishes,
OAG Tom

[Toofuzzy]

My GTC on DHT finally filled at $12.50
Sold 12% of my shares.

Toofuzzy

[OldAIMGuy]

Hi K, Re: ING history since 2019.............

Thank you for the concise summary and comments. Your Total Return (TR) including AIM trades, Price Appreciation and Dividend Capture looks very handsome. I sometimes look at the contributions made by each of these goals. In your case, Price Appreciation has contributed over 36% to the total return. 5 years of accumulated 5% dividend capture on average would have contributed around 25% to total return. It would appear that AIM's Volatility Capture also contributed very nicely to the T.R. With a slight negative "cost price" at the end suggests you've doubled value in that 5 year period or roughly a 14+% average annual return!

It's nice when a Plan works!

Best wishes,
OAG Tom

[karw]

TIME to provide its benefits
This AIM machine (stock=ING) started 5 years ago in April 2019.

price appreciation
The stock was bought at €12.02 and the last AIM sell was at €16.42. Roughly a price appreciation of 7% per year.

dividend
The dividend is estimated to be around 5% per year.

AIM management
For AIM management two numbers:
a Increase of the number of shares: 2.2 times as many shares at the end versus the number at the start.
b Cost price at the start was 12.02, cost price at the end was €-0.44 per share.

 blue line : price                green line : PC                        purple line : cost 

Kind Regards, K

[OldAIMGuy]

Tom's International Equity Warehouse (TIEW) Report........................

Yesterday our International Division had yet another Inventory Reduction. This time it was shares of International Large Cap Dividend (DOL) that were sent via special courier to their new owners.


This 5% reduction in inventory came with a healthy 20% LIFO round trip gain. It's the second sale in DOL so far this year. Shares were purchased in mid-2022, so this hasn't been a fast turn-over of inventory.

Once again, Mr. Lichello's AIM tripped trades nicely in sync with the Williams%R and Zig Zag reversals. Accumulation/Distribution history also matches up as AIM was accumulating when others were in Distribution mode, and more recently AIM has been distributing shares while others were anxiously in Accumulation mode.

Maybe I should change my motto to
"Accumulate when others are Distributing, Distribute when others are Accumulating!"

This is one of the components of my international "style" type ETF portfolio. It consists of small, mid and large cap dividend ETFs, small, mid and large cap growth ETFs and one Intl REIT fund and small and larger cap Emerging Markets ETFs.

I'm studying to learn how to say "Profits" in many different languages.....

Best wishes,
OAG Tom
Chief Executive Officer at Tom's International Equity Warehouse

[OldAIMGuy]

Hi Steve, Re: Research, Scanning and Charting at Schwab......................

I can't say I've ever explored those attributes at Schwab. Generally I use StockCharts.com for charting examples, Value Line for stock screens and researching on mid to larger cap stocks and American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) for micro and small cap ideas.

After finishing David Dreman's book "Contrarian Investment Strategies - the Psychological Edge" I've come to believe his ideas are quite compatible with Mr. Lichello's AIM inventory controls. Dreman's screening ideas are easily searched in Value Line for potential candidates. He looks for low P/E, low "Relative P/E" (low compared to similar companies in similar industries), low Price/Book Value and above average dividend yield as main screening topics. In other words, he's a 'value' oriented investor with deep contrary beliefs. The book is packed full of long term test results as backing of his ideas.

I don't know if Schwab's site has screens for these types of things as I've never looked.

Hope this helps,
OAG Tom
https://www.amazon.com/Contrarian-Investment-Strategies-Psychological-Edge/dp/0743297962/ref=sr_1_1?crid=2AZEIYCRBPAIT&dib=eyJ2IjoiMSJ9.VIYGfP7D3nsZ_oIIL0e2jKAwL80mmvlBKxmWFSnVk1pHhXU8scn47dKwGAW8HRgu-t3qovm443NZsjn8skh3VyZzZvR9-eHenmux8WrP1hWWWH5p7tI_qVaYmSGO0VzLpfxFpCXqMotUKDb8EmZVq61U5V0sbMPx3KzBRhTiarIIw01ZTyRerC0vmmEq7XGYs-NhZ4oL6SAh_TxbTifxTmoalCqKGC9omFu4eJVwdS8.9QJ4Tc5Fsoaux6aM1OasWFAe6WTjMtKhFos0tUQct9s&dib_tag=se&keywords=david+dreman+books&qid=1715686209&s=books&sprefix=David+Dreman%2Cstripbooks%2C651&sr=1-1

[The Grabber]

Thanks Tom.
I think Ameritrade's GTC orders were also 6 months by default unless you chose a date closer when entering.
Any thoughts on the research options? Scanning, Charting, etc?

[OldAIMGuy]

Hi Steve, Re: AMTD to SCHW switch.....................

I'd moved my personal accounts to Schwab years ago as part of my company's needs. We had all our client's portfolios domiciled at Schwab after consolidating them from many other locations. My kids, on the other hand were still with Ameritrade and their accounts moved, too, but in the 1st wave of this merger. Theirs went smoothly, but they had to do a bit of work with beneficiary notices and some other stuff.

I heard from a friend this AM that his AMTD account finally moved to SCHW. Schwab consolidated his and his wife's accounts in one master. He used to have to sign in to each separately, so this may be a good thing. So far, so good.

I'm also an investor in SCHW and was in AMTD until the merger. It's been a good trader for me as was AMTD in the past. It pays a modest dividend to help things out during dry spells.

https://schrts.co/dQjfuRbE

That halving of the share price between the peak in early 2022 and the bottoming in early 2023 allowed the Equity Warehouse to add a lot of inventory. Currently it's just $2-3 below where we'll let some interested new owner take delivery of 10% of our shares. Note I use 10% of PC as my minimum order size with SCHW. That gives me roughly a 30% ZigZag range for round trip trades. That plus the dividends makes me smile when it happens.

I hope the rest of the switch goes well. I've found SCHW's interface to work pretty well. It's a bit different from Ameritrade, but once you find your usual functions, it goes pretty smoothly. Little things like under the TRADE button, you'll find a choice of looking at your open orders and another to enter a new order. Once you've entered an order you have the choice of viewing the open orders and also entering another order. So, you don't need to go back to the header if you have multiple new orders to enter. Orders remain in the system for around 6 months before self cancelling.

Best wishes,
OAG Tom

[The Grabber]

Thanks Tom.
Good info as usual.
BTW: Not sure if you're still with TD Ameritrade, but the switch to Schwab happened today.
Seemed to go well. My GTC orders are still there which was a good thing.
After all these years, it will take a bit to get used to the new interface, but that's OK I guess.
I haven't looked at any of the other features yet (especially research) but I will as necessary.

[OldAIMGuy]

Here's the latest on Value Line's Dividend and Growth Models:

https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=174404408

Both lists offer happy hunting grounds for those taking AIM.

Best wishes,
OAG Tom

[OldAIMGuy]

Hi JD, Re: v-Wave...............................

Overall Q1 Earnings didn't come in badly, so the markets seem to be celebrating. This is happening even as the v-Wave Market Risk hasn't relaxed that much.



At least it's staying below the Caution threshold.

Best wishes,
OAG Tom

[JDerb]

v-WAVE 3.0*

Suggested Starting Cash Value For New AIM Accounts/Positions

Individual Stocks
High Risk: At or above 51%
Neutral: Between 37 and 50%
Low Risk: At or below 36%

Diversified Funds
High Risk: At or above 34%
Neutral: Between 25 and 33%
Low Risk: At or below 24%
_________________________
Week of May 17th
_________________________

Short Term (18 Months)

Individual Stocks: 65% (Unchanged from previous week)

Diversified Mutual Funds or Portfolio: 43% (Unchanged from previous week)
__________________________

Long Term (3-5 Years)

Individual Stocks: 49% (Up 1 from previous week)

Diversified Mutual Funds
or Portfolio: 33% (Up 1 from previous week)

Oscillator: 1.29 (Up 1.29 from previous week)


*See posts #44585 and #44588