2x Long VIX Futures ETF (UVIX)

[looking 4 a win]

Yes sir! Plus the jobs report was shit missing by 100k jobs, at least I can assume it's honest this time. Yea I think this is the right place to be, I do have a feeling though if T wins well a rise in the overall market that will be huge just not for VIX. 

[Bountiful_Harvest]

Tough question. I just bought a UVIX position to hold over the weekend (last weekend before election). Iran posturing for a pre-election attack on Israel. Nikkei behaving similar to its pre-Aug 5th crash. Today's rally seems feeble to me.

Should VIX break $23 it could go parabolic. Lots of "potential" for a VIX spike, but you know how volatile and risky UVIX can be.

[looking 4 a win]

Nice day, question is should I stay or go? 

[looking 4 a win]

So I've been studying the axis of evil you posted but I still don't know what it has to do with anything. All these assholes have been screwing with America one way or another forever. Do they have one Cobra Command leader now that's going to eliminate the USA once and for all? 
Thanks 

[2H2]

I’ve posted this many times before but peeps have short memories.

Memorize the SCO member list please. You’ll understand what’s ahead.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shanghai_Cooperation_Organisation

[looking 4 a win]

https://www.foxnews.com/world/israel-begins-retaliatory-strikes-against-iran-following-missile-barrage-targeting-israelis
Shits gettin real. 

[2H2]

USRael will be in big trouble now that they are bombing a SCO member.

[2H2]

No I wasn’t I don’t follow nfl once they required a clot shot to get into their stadiums. Either way Pack rules. Cheers

[Bountiful_Harvest]

Something big is comin? $UVIX up 9% with Nasdaq at record high...👀

Then there's this...Yields set to explode:

[looking 4 a win]

Hey 2H2, I just realized you may not be talking about the Rams/Vikings game last night. It was a disappointing loss to a beatable team but goes to show you what happens when you let your guard down. 
Oh well, 5-2 isn't terrible I guess. 

[looking 4 a win]

Screw that shit, Vikings all day! SKOL! Fuck LA! 

[2H2]

Get ready for a mess, La going to win it seems? Glad I don’t vote for either tribe. I sleep good at night.

[looking 4 a win]

This new iHub app won't let me expand the pic, my fuzzy vision agrees with you. 

[Bountiful_Harvest]

Not sure when but watching that $23 VIX level...breaks that and could get interesting really fast.

[looking 4 a win]

https://www.newsweek.com/north-korea-south-korea-war-drills-1971637

I wonder if anyone cares? Not the market anyway. 

[2H2]

The Rubicon has been crossed. Great trading market, make hay while the sun shines. Out for the weekend. Cheers.

Chicken little

[2H2]

Chicken little proved to be correct over time.

[looking 4 a win]

LOL

[FatStrat]

Another idiot I see. Cool.

[looking 4 a win]

Hey Fathead, if you bother to turn off MSNDNC you would know yes, the world is in a shit storm. But boy that Anderson cooper is handsome though right? Grow up.

[FatStrat]

The date you stop spewing your chicken little bullshit?

[looking 4 a win]

God I hope not.

[2H2]

So 12/18 is the new date?

[looking 4 a win]

Once again the markets don’t seem to care about anything happening and artificial prop up continues. FJB FKH

[looking 4 a win]

It’s really been dominating my thoughts for a long time now. Timing is everything, if things go the way %55 of America hopes bad guys are on the clock. If 47 is DT they have until January 20 to pull the trigger otherwise they won’t dare, in reference to Hamas. Ukraine is a completely unauthorized conflict for us to get involved in, but it looks like US troops (tech support) are helping with a defense system that will save lives, but probably seen as a escalation by Russia. But I should say we’ve been doing so much more than defense, basically supporting their entire economy with our tax $, again timing is everything because Putin will definitely withdraw when DT is in the captain’s chair.
So many plates spinning, biggest question is who drop the first plate and when?
Just my thoughts.

[2H2]

Thoughts, you all ready?

- The US can no longer sustain a proxy war against Russia in Ukraine.

- The US/Israel have no credible military option to defeat Iran.

- The US/Israel cannot meaningfully defend against massive Iranian missile strikes on US/Israel bases in the entire region.

[looking 4 a win]

https://apnews.com/article/north-korea-roads-destroys-drones-south-0672f5baf033cf0c4ecb2f1e1b958a41

That’s no good

[looking 4 a win]

https://www.newsmax.com/newsfront/china-military-drills-taiwan/2024/10/14/id/1183948/

[looking 4 a win]

Absolutely. I don’t want bloodshed only for their markets to crash and burn but will recover and force uvix to run like hell. Man’s greatest fears lay in anticipation.

[Bountiful_Harvest]

True, their level of posturing has been ever-increasing. We've never witnessed anything to this extent before. As you say, the US leadership is at their all-time weakness, even bribed by China. Could be that China is hoping Taiwan makes a mistake by attacking any one of their ships or planes currently in their territory, giving a reason to invade.

I also think Israel will attack Iran before the election.

Global powder keg with markets at their all-time high. Playing with fire.

[looking 4 a win]

Just curious but isn’t china always doing maneuvers around Taiwan? Something like the threat is always present. Now would definitely be the time to strike being that the nonexistent leadership are pushovers anyway.

[Bountiful_Harvest]

China militarily surrounding Taiwan may present some global volatility. To create real troubles for US markets China does not need to invade Taiwan at all, but simply to block $TSMC shipments from the island. or just count and share with the world the real number of GPUs produced and shipped.

@DarioCpx I find so fascinating how markets aren’t pricing any risk whatsoever related to China holding large military exercises around Taiwan - beware “everything is awesome” till it isn’t that’s why us important to have protection against tail events at any time.

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/china-initiates-huge-military-drills-around-taiwan-warning-islands-president

[Dubster watching]

Loading UVIX here.

[2H2]

I beg to differ sir

[tw0122]

Exit all UVIX trades as SVIX the better play a little gain instead $
$HYG slight recovery volatility killer

[looking 4 a win]

Vesuvius!

[Bountiful_Harvest]

$VIX - Lava build up - Eyes on 23 - it goes and she blows.



Black Swan event before election?

[looking 4 a win]

Oh what the hell?! Great synopsis though. You don’t happen to have the answer to that of 3, 12 month and .30 calculation do you?
Unless they’re handing out no-show jobs at boarder that number is bullshit.

[tw0122]

"Something Went Totally Nuts" At BLS But Labor Market Indicator Still Strongly Suggests Recession

TUESDAY, OCT 08, 2024 - 02:20 PM
Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk.com,

McKelvey-PMES Recession Indicator Weakens Slightly but Signal Still Firm
The McKelvey-PMES recession indicator dipped a bit in September but the signal still implies recession.



100 percent of the time, with no false positives or negatives, under current conditions, the economy has been in recession.

The odds are not 100 percent because the NBER sets recession dates, not these charts.

What is the McKelvey Recession Indicator?
Take the current value of the 3-month unemployment rate average, subtract the 12-month low, and if the difference is 0.30 percentage point or more, then a recession has started.

Edward McKelvey, a senior economist at Goldman Sachs, created the indicator.


September Jobs Report
Finally, the September jobs report is more than a bit screwy, impacting the above calculations.

For discussion, please see The BLS Reports Jobs Rebounded More Than Expected in September

The BLS reports payroll employment rises by 254,000 in September. I discussed two reasons the report is suspect.

Also see Government Employment Rose by an Amazing 785,000 in September

I am confident something (many things?) went totally nuts in BLS sampling or assumptions.

The economy did not suddenly add 785,000 government workers in September.

23

[looking 4 a win]

China is going tits up broke and goes down hard. ???

[looking 4 a win]

Ok that’s good, let’s reverse please.

[Bountiful_Harvest]

$VIX still near 22 while $SPX still near ATH's.

It's almost like who wants to go first... Some charts say crash and others say higher. Could go either way.

I'll be glad to get the election over with...then markets crash. Just not sure what happens before election...Or what Israel, Iran, Russia, China will do on any given day.

Markets are playing with fire! 🔥🔥🔥

[Bountiful_Harvest]

Wondering if US Brokers going to pull the plug claiming a system “glitch” when market opens so hedge funds can sell their China ADR positions before retail? Those China stocks are going to get hammered today...margins incoming.

https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=175197142

[tw0122]

China crash in progress $YANG from 2.39 to 3.44+ 44%

[looking 4 a win]

My thinking as well, maybe just delayed reaction from all the crap that’s been swirling? If Israel does what they said as far as response to Iran this should blow up hard.
Just an opinion of a novice.

[Bountiful_Harvest]

Tremors before something big happens? Might be a combination of things. So much crazy happening all at once? Someone that understands volatility and VIX might be able to give you a better answer but here's a few things I noticed.



Then you had this strange event with China market (HSI volatility):

[looking 4 a win]

Any idea why it’s moving? Oct 9 was the last date of note I saw last. Not that I’m complaining.

[looking 4 a win]

Too quiet here today, looks good so far.

[2H2]

SCO is behind Iran?

[looking 4 a win]

Boy I hope so. Thanks BH