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4/27 THE CHARTIST We do not anticipate much of a pull back from current levels; but, if we are wrong, our eyes will be on the March 27th intraday low of 2322.25 on the S&P 500. This is an important support level which, if broken decisively, will set the stage for a more serious test of all the indices. We will also be watching the Russell 2000 where support is in evidence at 1335.04 and as well as the S&P 400, which tracks midcaps where support is at 1673.30.
When it does we have found that the odds are weighted in favor of higher prices over the next 60 days.
Note, we came very close to a short term buy signal on April 10th. The last short term buy signal was on February 14th
The Value Line Geometric and S&P Midcap Index have also significantly outperformed the S&P 500 over the period and are right on the verge of making all-time highs. The Value Line Geometric similar to the NYSE Advance/Decline Line has a tendency to lead the market at juncture turning points.
It gave ample warning before the last bear market peaking three months ahead of the S&P 500. It also peaked well ahead of the S&P 500 prior to the unraveling of the dot-com bubble back in 2000. It also topped out well ahead of the 1973-74 debacle.
4/26 CHARTIST SELLS
Long Term Investors acting in sync with our Actual Cash Account and Aggressive Account are advised to close out their positions in the following four stocks which have lagged in this cycle:
Target (TGT)
Anheuser Busch (BUD)
Allergan (AGN)
Biogen (BIIB)
4/25 We are right on the verge of making additional recommendations for Traders.
3/23 With the market mildly oversold, it appears that stocks are going lower over the near term.
We would advise holding off on making any new commitments for the time being.
3/18 It should be noted that the so-called real Federal
Funds rate, arrived at by subtracting inflation, is still below zero, a clear sign of an accommodating policy.
Our long term models as well as the chart patterns of the major indices are bullish.
In the meantime, our advice for long-term investors and traders is to stay fully invested respecting the prevailing trend,
which is decidedly bullish and could have another year to run.
It’s a bull market, and in bull markets you want to be fully invested
good reading, got one fer super cycle bull
re;
2/2/17
A bull market is defined by a 20%+ rally that was preceded by a 20%+ decline.
Since 1927 there have been 26 such occurrences, but only nine lasted in excess of a thousand days.
It is truly remarkable that the present bull market has lasted as long as it has without at least one 20% correction. It has been one of the most hated bull markets in history, but it has also been one of the most resilient.
There have already been 5 corrections in excess of 10% and 13 in excess of 5%.
...................................................................
Tops generally occur in one of two ways:
(1) a prolonged period of distribution that sees major behavioral divergences appearing amongst the major behavioral divergences appearing amongst the major market indices and various internal indicators; or more rarely
(2) a “blow-off” top that sees market indices and individual stocks soar in a near-vertical fashion on a wave of over-enthusiasm.
To date, we see no sign that a bull market-ending top is developing. The major market indices are moving in the same direction and, while market enthusiasm is growing (Barron’s has “DOW 30,000” on its cover), we have yet to see evidence of a buying panic.
2/2/17
A bull market is defined by a 20%+ rally that was preceded by a 20%+ decline.
Since 1927 there have been 26 such occurrences, but only nine lasted in excess of a thousand days.
It is truly remarkable that the present bull market has lasted as long as it has without at least one 20% correction. It has been one of the most hated bull markets in history, but it has also been one of the most resilient.
There have already been 5 corrections in excess of 10% and 13 in excess of 5%.
...................................................................
Tops generally occur in one of two ways:
(1) a prolonged period of distribution that sees major behavioral divergences appearing amongst the major behavioral divergences appearing amongst the major market indices and various internal indicators; or more rarely
(2) a “blow-off” top that sees market indices and individual stocks soar in a near-vertical fashion on a wave of over-enthusiasm.
To date, we see no sign that a bull market-ending top is developing. The major market indices are moving in the same direction and, while market enthusiasm is growing (Barron’s has “DOW 30,000” on its cover), we have yet to see evidence of a buying panic.
12/27 With the averages at or close to record highs and historically now in the most favorable time of the year for stocks we continue to recommend a 100% invested.
Our next regular hotline is scheduled for Thursday, December 29th, 3pm West Coast Time.
Thursday, December 08, 2016
The market is heavily overbought, which is a strong signal that it is going still higher over the near term.
Our overbought/oversold indicator hit +3.35 yesterday and finished at +3.90 today (readings of 3.00 or higher represent a heavily overbought condition).
THE CHARTIST BUYS AND SELLS
SELL CASH ACC 8/25/15
BUY CASH ACC 11/4/15
SELL CASH ACC 1/7/16
1/21/16 THE CHARTIST
The path of least resistance, near term, should be to the upside. For all intents and purposes, the August lows have held, albeit for the time being. Another strong indication that the lows are in for a while was Wednesday’s sensational late session rallies in both the Nasdaq and Russell 2000.
When the bearish sentiment gets this low, the market has a habit of moving in the opposite direction.
The stock market is considered to be a leading indicator and often looks ahead a good six months to a year. A glance at the charts of the major averages tells us, in no uncertain terms, that a recession is coming. However, the stock market has been wrong before, so who do you believe? That’s an easy answer for us because we have always worked under the assumption that the market is always right.
What we have now from a technical standpoint is a thoroughly sold out market. We’re betting on a rally, but until we see evidence to the contrary, we are working under the assumption that it will be a rally within the confines of an ongoing bear market.
1/7/16
The market’s subsurface tells a completely different story. The Value Line Geometric consists of over 1600 issues and is an excellent gauge of how the average stock is performing. It is currently down 20% since last April and hitting a 30 month low today. The advance/decline line paints a similar picture. Although a technical bounce is overdue, it now appears that it’s only a matter of time before the S&P 500 takes out its August lows as well.
Our overbought/oversold indicator, at –5.45, is the most heavily oversold that it has been in since September 28th, so there is no question that a powerful snapback rally is overdue. One might be tempted to try and sell into the rally. It’s a judgment call. Our advice is to respect the sell signal. The rally could come from much lower levels.
THE CHARTIST UP DATE
BUY TRADERS ACC 2/17/15
SELL CASH ACC 8/24/15
BUY CASH AND TRADERS ACC 11/3/15
CHARTIST HOTLINE
Friday, December 18, 2015
Whenever the Dow rises or falls 1% or more we update this hotline.
So much for the Santa Claus rally. After a brief two-day rally the market has given it all back over the last two trading sessions and is once again in a heavily oversold condition. The Dow lost -367, -2.1%. In the last two trading sessions it has given up -620 points -3.5%. The Dow Transports losing -2.25% were hit even harder and in the process dropped below their August lows, which represent a major support area.
The transports which had been in the forefront of the bull market have now lost 20% since topping out in February. Most of the indexes are now below their 200 day lines as well as their respective November lows. A test of the August lows, a key support area, now seems imminent.
Both the Actual Cash Account and the Aggressive Account lost approximately -1.7% in today’s session.
All of the stocks in the Traders Portfolio finished underwater however none violated their mental stops. The closest was Phillips 66 (PSX) which closed at 80.56 the mental stop is at 80.08. Followed by Hartford Financial (HIG) which closed at 42.11 with a mental stop of 41.25.
Putting it all together we are getting very close to an outright sell signal. It does not look good.
Our next regular hotline is scheduled for Tuesday, December 22nd, 3:00 p.m., West Coast Time. However, in the event of a sell signal we will announce it over Monday’s hotline.
10/29/15
Our models,although rapidly improving, are still in a negative
mode. Thus, our advice to stay in a cautious 15%
invested position versus 85% cash remains in
effect for the time being
10/14/15 THE CHARTIST WAS UP 1.42 %
10/13/15 THE CHARTIST WAS UP 1.58 %
10/12/15 THE CHARTIST WAS UP 1.98 %
10/9/15 THE CHARTIST WAS UP 1.24 %
Got THE CHARTIST newsletter today.
He is still out of the market.
10/8/15
10/8/15 THE CHARTIST WAS UP 1.37%
10/7/15 THE CHARTIST WAS UP .79 %
CHARTIST HOTLINE
Monday, October 05, 2015
Special Chartist Hotline, Monday, October 5th, 3:00 p.m., West Coast Time.
With rate hike fears all but eliminated for the time being, the market continues to rally. Friday’s price action was most impressive. The Dow was down 258 in the early going but finished the session up 200, that’s a swing of 458 points. It then proceeded to tack on another 304 points today, with advancing stocks overwhelming declining stocks by a ratio of 7:1. The last time advancing stocks led by 7:1 was back on December 17th of last year.
“Can this rally be sustained?” is the obvious question. The Benchmark S&P 500 has finished ahead for five consecutive sessions, gaining 5.6% in the process. It is important to remember that bear market rallies are most deceptive and often look like the real thing. In the last bear market, the S&P 500 enjoyed several rallies well in excess of its most recent gains.
The bottom line is that our models are bearish which means that the odds continue to favor the downside. Our advice is to stay in a cautious 15% equity position.
Our next regular hotline is scheduled for tomorrow, Tuesday, October 6th, 3:00 p.m., West Coast Time.
ON 9/30/15 THE CHARTIST WAS DOWN -.34 % In trading portfolio dated 2/17/2015
CHARTIST HOTLINE
Tuesday, September 29, 2015
The market spent most of the session going nowhere with the Dow moving into and out of positive territory on no less than 23 occasions throughout the session, finally closing ahead 47.24 (+0.30%). However, the market subsurface was weak with the Russell 2000 losing -6.66 (-0.61%). Declining stocks led by a ratio of 5 to 4 on the NYSE and 17 to 10 on the Nasdaq.
The Dow, S&P 500, Dow Transports, S&P Midcap Index and the Nasdaq are still holding tenaciously above their August 25th closing lows; however, the Russell 2000, Value Line Geometric and NYSE Advance Decline Line closed under their August closing lows the second session in a row. While we are in the bearish camp, we are looking for a rally. The market is still heavily oversold.
None of the stocks in the Trader’s Portfolio closed below their mental stops in today’s session; however, HCA Holdings, Regeneron and TEVA closed below their mental stops yesterday and were sold today. HCA Holdings (HCA) was sold at 74.05 (+7.08%) Regeneron (REGN) 444.59 (+27.04%) and TEVA (TEVA) 57.21 (+11.58%).
TRADERS NOTE: SPDR Financial (XLF) and S&P Retail (XRT)) are just fractionally above their respective mental stops.
Our next regular hotline is scheduled for Thursday, October 1st, 3:00 p.m., West Coast Time.
ON 9/29/15 THE CHARTIST WAS DOWN -1.72 % In trading portfolio dated 2/17/2015
ON 9/28/15 THE CHARTIST WAS DOWN -1.34 % In trading portfolio dated 2/17/2015
on 9/4/2015 the chartist has -.07 % loss for the 9 stocks bought on 2/17/15
SOLD 4 WITH 5 REMAING
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