***Galapagos Islands*** (SWALLOW)

[Ben Dover]

I'd like to mention that some guy recently arrived here and sat down at a terminal close to mine, and he has about a pint of some sort of "cologne" on. My nose immediately plugged up, and then I started sneezing. Then two other people here started sneezing.

Incredibly annoying. I wonder what prompts ordinary people to douse themselves in petroleum derivatives and then antagonize those of us who simply wash every day.

He's a large fellow, so I will refrain from addressing my complaint with him personally. Maybe I'll just sneeze on him.

It is OK to post these off-topic remarks here, yes?

[Phil(Hot Rod Chevy)]

For any WAGers that stop by this board occasionally, there is a survey going on concerning the WAG rules.

http://www.investorshub.com/boards/board_surveymenu.asp?board_id=942

Have fun,
Phil

[Rich1]

Well here we are again..<g>
Just bought puts July 20's and sold calls against my NFLX position.

[JXM]

thanks challo. I put that little gif in my si profile.

[challo]

let me try this again -

ah - this is for you, my dear -g-

[challo]

edit

[Rich1]

<As you are no doubt familiar with, this stuff can be addicting.>
LOL

[JXM]

I agree with the gentleman part, from what I know. And at $150/year, he was clearly charging far too little. I can see how the hosting cost increase could affect him with that.

It will be interesting to see if he shows up again before too long. I doubt that he will give up his cycle work completely. As you are no doubt familiar with, this stuff can be addicting.

[Rich1]

First and foremost he was updating everyday and only charging $150 a year... which from a Business plan standpoint could'nt have made sense...
I was under the impression he was updating everynight anyway for his own trading but I guess the getting it on the net ws a problem. You would probably know better.
Secondly his cycles dont seem to be working as well as they did in the past.
Now where I have I heard that..<g>
He's mentioned writing a book so if it comes out maybe I will buy it...
The guy has been nothing but a Gentlemen IMHO..

[JXM]

I'm trying to figure out how the hosting costs could have gone up enough to push him out of the biz...even at 125% increase. The time consuming part I can certainly understand.

[Rich1]

His costs went up. too time consuming.

[JXM]

nobody says that it has to be the same issues fundamentally, just the same emotional mindset of investors.

[challo]

I saw that.

What happened?

[Rich1]

And Carpino down for good...

[challo]

SI back up now -

[challo]

If it was a plot, it worked for me! -g-

[Slipstick Libby]

It's been down for hours. And it's Sunday. Probably no one around the servers currently and they don't even know it's down, so it could be tomorrow morning before it's back.

[Slipstick Libby]

Could this be a plot by Bob to get everyone over to IHUB?

[challo]

yes, I was on earlier and it seems as if, within minutes,
it just went, ker-plunk! -g-

[sdheart]

Glad I"m not the only one having trouble with SI..Wonder how long it will be down?......going walking maybe it will be up when i return...

[Slipstick Libby]

Sure seems to be. I was able to connect about 10 AM PDT, but not since.

[challo]

SI down?

[Slipstick Libby]

Stop that! You're going to depress me!

There are some (I believe) signficant differences between Japan and the US too. Some good for us, some bad. One that is good for us is that we do not have the political paralysis that has characterized Japan for decades. And that actually was intentionally built in by the US during the occupation.

[Slipstick Libby]

I never could figure out Iridium. The places where there are lots of people with lots of money already had cellphone service. The places that didn't couldn't afford Iridium bricks at $1000 a pop or had no people. How many penguins use cellphones, ferchrissakes?

[market_watcher]

True, but the very threat of entry in a duopoly depresses prices and the knowledge that there will always be two means they avoid a price war. Even if one goes bankrupt, they'll just come back to compete again.

They're also starting to sell home units, although there they are competing with cable TV radio stations. The key is going to be if they have the content worth paying the subscription fee for. For me, the answer is no, but that's probably because I never have to drive, so commercials on the radio station aren't an issue.

[JXM]

I think that the market would limit the number of satellite radio companies that could succeed anyway. It just seems to me to be a niche market that has some pretty significant costs associated with it. I would compare it to iridium, where it is a pretty cool service, but how many of us really need it enough to pay for it.

[market_watcher]

The interesting thing about those guys is that they have a guaranteed duopoly. The gov't. wants two, but only two, competitors in the satellite radio market and doesn't want them to be bought out by another media company. It's a pretty interesting situation and if it takes off, they could make some real money as a result of this limited competition.

[Rich1]

Added more NFLX at 18.25 and sold my puts for $3.10
Bought my calls back..
The whole position goes at $18.00

[JXM]

New and improved Nikkei/Naz comparison.

http://www.dailyduediligence.com/Midday/june/june12nikkeistudy.html

[Locutus]

I saw that.

That's pretty interesting. What was it...something like 11 out of the last 12 days the tick above 1000 resulted in a tick substantially lower the next day? Interesting indeed.

[Locutus]

I know...just goofing around.

[JXM]

Tick +1000 study.....

http://www.dailyduediligence.com/Midday/june/june11tick1000.html

[Rich1]

The dead horse comment had nothing to do with header.
In fact I havent even read the header..<g>
It had to do with differences of opinion about NFLX..

[Locutus]

..."beating a dead horse"?

Does that have anything to do with this in the thread header:

"Warning, though this thread will contain technical and fundamental analysis of stocks, the market and economy as well as discuss short term trading ideas, there is a very high probability that obscenities will be used as well as sexual innuendo and referrals to illicit acts with farm animals.

[Rich1]

No sense beating a dead horse...
I guess we will find out...
BTW we may just see higher highs today on the SPOOS which would negate the 957 area IMHO....

[JXM]

the two satellite radio stocks are SIRI and XMSR. Both have been doing very well. Another business model that I don't really understand.

[timtoinv]

I think that satellite radio stock has been pretty interesting lately. Believe it is SIRIS or something. SI sucks lately. tim

[Slipstick Libby]

More younger Americans give up investing - survey
Wednesday June 11, 11:37 am ET

NEW YORK, June 11 (Reuters) - More younger Americans have stopped investing because of losses they've suffered in the stock market, a new survey has found.

The survey, sponsored by the Mainstay Funds unit of New York Life Investment Management, found that only 59 percent of investors ages 22 to 36 owned investments outside of their retirement plans in 2003, down from 70 percent in 2002.

ADVERTISEMENT
The percentage of these people who stopped investing because of market losses rose to 11 percent in 2003, up from 4 percent a year earlier, the survey found. The majority of these investors -- 58 percent -- cited a "lack of funds" as the reason for falling ownership of non-retirement assets.

"Those who perceive themselves as conservative have increased steadily over the past three years," Beverly Moore, managing director of retail markets at New York Life Investment Management in Parsippany, New Jersey, told Reuters on Wednesday. "They are concerned about the prolonged recession and negative environment."

The survey, released this week, polled 515 people and was completed in March, before this spring's stock market rally took off. The broad Standard & Poor's 500 index (CBOE:^SPX - News) has jumped more than 16 percent since the end of March.

Moore said that many investors appear more optimistic than they were a few months ago, when the survey was completed.

Although younger investors have grown more sober during the bear market, they are still less conservative in their investments than older people, the survey found.

According to the latest survey and MainStay's similar polls of other age groups, 31 percent of investors who belong to the so-called "Generation X" -- a term from an early 1990s novel by Douglas Coupland used to describe the post-Baby Boomer generation -- described themselves as "conservative," compared with 45 percent of Baby Boomers aged 37 to 54 and 53 percent of those ages 55 to 70.

The survey also found that 61 percent of Generation X investors expect a higher standard of living in retirement than their parents.

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/030611/financial_fund_investors_1.html

[JXM]

yup, I have stated that many times.

[Slipstick Libby]

True. OTOH, P/C often fails to signal changes.

[challo]

that's what others that I speak with are looking at also -

Zeev just bought a little -

(disclosure - I also have a little from 29.90)

[JXM]

I agree with you on the move lower before new highs. With opex next week and a 957 target, I would be surprised if they didn't overshoot by a couple of points just to clear out the 950 strikes.

As far as NFLX.....BBI has a strong customer base too and I know that VOD is in their business plan. So NFLX won't be without competition there. And BBI does have a little more bulk to throw around. I am probably wrong, but I just don't see the fundamental story for NFLX as being strong for the long term.

[Rich1]

I'm thinking they were smart enough to come up with a business model that has over 1 million folks paying $20 a month.
I am also thinking they are aware of VOD and are smart enough to either compete against it or come up with a better mousetrap.
As far as lower highs nothing in their chart has indicated it..In fact its been just the opposite...
If we cant take out 990 by the end of the day I am thinking we just may see 957 before the next leg up..

[JXM]

yes, it would be a sell....that doesn't concern me....

this is what I am looking at.

http://www.dailyduediligence.com/Midday/qcom.html

[JXM]

There is no question that many people love the product.....now. But stock price is about future value. And I think that the future value is in jeopardy for the reasons stated.

One thing that would make me think otherwise is if they have some sort of exclusive licensing agreement that would allow them to offer the selections that they do and exclude others. Then if they partnered with local service providers, they could have a real winner. In other words, if their business plan has a path to VOD they could have a real nice position. FWIW, that triple bottom would have me worried on the bullish side. I know that the chart doesn't have an official negative interpretation to it, but it does look toppy to me. Again, not saying that it won't go to 27 first, but I think that the steady increases are over and that lower highs are going to start showing up.

[challo]

ah - wouldn't 29 be a new sell signal on P&F?

OR - a bear trap! -g-

[JXM]

Not real bullish on qcom in the short term, but very bullish in the long term. I like it at around $29. And no, I am not shorting it.

http://www.stockcharts.com/webcgi/Pnf.asp?S=qcom&N=A&T=on
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=QCOM,uu[r,a]daclynay[d20020111,20030611][pb50!b200][iUb1...

[Rich1]

Well VOD is not available..and NFLX is..
So their is no choice.
What NFLX has created is a cash cow..Over 1 million people paying $20 a month for their service...Kind of like what AOL did when everyone said that AOL would not succeed.
There are skeptics as evidenced by this IBD story that ran...but it has become one of the New Leaders...and its chart looks good...
http://biz.yahoo.com/ibd/030528/tech01_1.html

[challo]

what do you guys think of qcom here?

[JXM]

I believe that BBI's business model has to change or they will perish. However, I also know that VOD is very much in their future business plan. So, where I might short BBI, it wouldn't be because of this.

If VOD was available to you, would you choose NFLX service over VOD? Assume that all other things are equal (same selection, same price, etc....)