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Nov 9 up=9 down=0 bullih
There is a fourth indicator group that I will highlight today, the percent of stocks with silver crosses. This is a DecisionPoint indicator available at StockCharts. A silver cross occurs when the 20-day EMA moves above the 50-day EMA. The chart below shows this indicator for SPX, NDX, MID and SML. All four turned up in mid April and moved above their 20-day EMAs (pink lines). They exceeded 80% on June 10th and then turned down. Nevertheless, they are still a relatively high levels (>65%). The Nasdaq 100 indicator crossed below its 20-day EMA on Thursday, but the other three remain above, by a whisker.
ART HILL BREATH INDICATORS
ART HILL 9 INDICATORS
http://www.stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=1401935,9&cmd=show&disp=e
ART HILL 3 NAS 100 INDICATORS
http://www.stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=1401935,38&cmd=show&disp=e
6/12/20 5 new indicators
The chart above shows the individual signals for each indicator in the breadth model. The 10-day EMA of SPX Advance-Decline Percent and SPX %Above 100-day SMA remain on bullish signals. SPX High-Low Percent never fully recovered after its late February plunge and remained on a bearish signal throughout April, May and June. SPX %Above 150-day SMA and SPX %Above 200-day SMA triggered bullish last week, but flipped back to bearish this week. Thus, three of the five indicators are on bearish signals.
6/12/20 At best, we are due for a correction after the big advance from late March to early June.
At worst, the bear market bounce is ending and the bear market is resuming.
5 Indicator Long-term Breadth Model
After some trial and error, I developed a long-term breadth model using data from Norgate and Amibroker testing software. At this time, this model only uses data from stocks in the S&P 500. In general, models are more less volatile when they exclude mid-caps and small-caps. There is nothing wrong with StockCharts’ breadth data, but I need data going back further than 2010 and signals that can be quantified. Norgate breadth indicators are based on data that is not adjusted for dividends. I suspect that StockCharts uses dividend-adjusted data for their breadth indicators.
This adjustment issue caused me to adjust the bullish and bearish thresholds. With Stockcharts, I was using 60% and 40% as bullish and bearish thresholds for S&P 500 %Above 200-day EMA (!GT200SPX) and S&P 500 %Above 200-day SMA ($SPXA200R). Dividend-adjusted data has an upward bias because the dividends are added back to prices after the fact. To account for this difference, I am using 55% and 45% for my bullish and bearish thresholds when using Norgate %Above 200-day. The list below shows the indicators with their thresholds.
10-day EMA of SPX Advance-Decline Percent: Bullish breadth thrust with move above +30% and bearish thrust with move below -30%
%Above 200-day SMA for S&P 500 Stocks: Bullish with move above 55% and bearish with move below 45%
%Above 150-day SMA for S&P 500 Stocks: Bullish with move above 65% and bearish with move below 35%
%Above 100-day SMA for S&P 500 Stocks: Bullish with move above 75% and bearish with move below 25%
S&P 500 High-Low Percent: Bullish with move above +10% and bearish with move below -10%
I will update the breadth model using StockCharts indicators, but note that I will be taking signals from the Norgate/Amibroker Breadth model from here on out. Nevertheless, the StockCharts model flipped bearish as the S&P 400 %Above 200-day EMA (!GT200MID) plunged below 40%. The S&P 600 %Above 200-day EMA (!GT200SML) never triggered bullish and S&P 500 %Above 200-day EMA (!GT200SPX) fell to 41%. These kinds of whipsaws happen when so many stocks are close to their 200-day SMAs.
6/11/20 I will update the breadth model using StockCharts indicators, but note that I will be taking signals from the Norgate/Amibroker Breadth model from here on out. Nevertheless, the StockCharts model flipped bearish as the S&P 400 %Above 200-day EMA (!GT200MID) plunged below 40%. The S&P 600 %Above 200-day EMA (!GT200SML) never triggered bullish and S&P 500 %Above 200-day EMA (!GT200SPX) fell to 41%. These kinds of whipsaws happen when so many stocks are close to their 200-day SMAs.
As far as broad market timing, ART HILL will be watching the
1 breadth models
2 5/200 day EMA crossing
A bearish signal in the breadth model or a bearish cross in the 5/200 day EMA would tilt the balance back to the bears.
ART HILL BREATH INDICATORS
ART HILL 9 INDICATORS
http://www.stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=1401935,9&cmd=show&disp=e
ART HILL 3 NAS 100 INDICATORS
http://www.stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=1401935,38&cmd=show&disp=e
ART HILL 3 DOW INDICATORS
http://www.stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=1401935,39&cmd=show&disp=e
ART HILL 9 INDICATORS 5 YEARS
http://www.stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=1401935,30
ART HILL 3 XLK XLV XLI XLF INDICATORS
http://www.stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=1401935,40&cmd=show&disp=e
ART HILL 3 XLK INDICATORS
http://www.stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=1401935,40&cmd=show&disp=e
ART HILL BREATH INDICATORS
ART HILL 9 INDICATORS
http://www.stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=1401935,9&cmd=show&disp=e
ART HILL 3 NAS 100 INDICATORS
http://www.stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=1401935,38&cmd=show&disp=e
ART HILL 3 DOW INDICATORS
http://www.stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=1401935,39&cmd=show&disp=e
ART HILL 9 INDICATORS 5 YEARS
http://www.stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=1401935,30&cmd=show&disp=e
ART HILL 3 DOW INDICATORS
http://www.stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=1401935,39&cmd=show&disp=e
ART HILL 3 NAS 100 INDICATORS
http://www.stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=1401935,38&cmd=show&disp=e
LAST 3 BEAR MARKETS
2000-2004 BEAR MARKET
http://www.stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=1401935,20&cmd=show&disp=e
2007 2009 BEAR MARKET
http://www.stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=1401935,22&cmd=show&disp=e
2019 2020 BEAR MARKET
http://www.stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=1401935,23&cmd=show&disp=e
LAST 3 BEAR MARKETS
2000-2004 BEAR MARKET
http://www.stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=1401935,18&cmd=show&disp=e
2007 2009 BEAR MARKET
http://www.stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=1401935,16&cmd=show&disp=e
2019 2020 BEAR MARKET
http://www.stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=1401935,15&cmd=show&disp=e
SPY RSI 10 STOCHRIS 10 3 MONTHS
http://www.stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=1401935,32&cmd=show&disp=e
The indicator windows show RSI(10) and StochRSI(10) for short-term signals.
In an uptrend, a move below 40 activates a bullish mean-reversion setup.
This setup triggers with a move back above 40 or a StochRSI move above 80 (green lines). Take your pick!
The opposite is true in a bear market. A move above 60 activates a bearish mean-reversion setup.
This setup triggers with a move back below 60 or StochRSI move below 20.
$SPXHLP SELL
I consider High-Low Percent bullish when it exceeds +10%
This suggests that enough stocks are recording new highs to support a bull market.
Even though this indicator can dip into negative territory after a bullish signal,
it does not turn bearish until there is a move below -10%.
Such a move means new lows have expanded enough to justify a bear market environment
I consider High-Low Percent bullish when it exceeds +10%
This suggests that enough stocks are recording new highs to support a bull market.
Even though this indicator can dip into negative territory after a bullish signal,
it does not turn bearish until there is a move below -10%.
Such a move means new lows have expanded enough to justify a bear market environment
ART HILL 9 INDICATORS DAILY
http://www.stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=1401935,9&cmd=show&disp=e
ART HILL 9 INDICATORS 5 YEARS
http://www.stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=1401935,30&cmd=show&disp=e
ART HILL 9 INDICATORS
http://www.stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=1401935,9&cmd=show&disp=e
SORRY TO HEAR THAT.
I do not have the time to up date these charts.
For some reason I can not see your chart though I am a paying member of Stockcharts.
ART HILL RESESTANCE ZONES
http://stockcharts.com/articles/chartwatchers/2020/03/when-bullish-retracement-zones-755.html
80 % DOWN DAYS CHART
http://c.stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=%24SPX&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&i=p69201370338&a=718008139&r=929
90 % DOWN DAYS for SPX MID SML
http://stockcharts.com/articles/arthurhill/2020/02/another-triple-90-down-day-wha-591.html
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