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HI Don, Aptus
Through my own feeble efforts plus others with greater insight
The spreadsheet for this stock allocation system based on standard deviation is
Column A correlation coefficent
column B standard deviation. The sum of column b is called S
column c is S/standard Deviation The sum of column c is called T
Column D is Column c individual values divided by T
Column E is individual shares initial buy price
Column f is called target $. It is column D individual value times initial bankroll or aka Money to be invested
Column G Shares to purchase it is column D times Money divided by column e value.
The purpose of the correlation coefficent is unknown as it reflects on the values in the spread sheet
refer to aim users bulletin board post #15057 for fuller explanation.
2 Days Only: Save 50% on Value Stock Selector 4.0
Until Monday December 20, 2010 (at 11:59 pm PST)
Enjoy Value Stock Selector 4.0 on sale for 50% off!
Now you can get the World's Easiest Investment Software for 50% off any order that you place by Monday, December 20th!
Simply enter Coupon Code Christmas2010 into your shopping cart at http://valuestockselector.com/store/cart/ to receive this special Christmas offer!
You can also apply this offer to the Pragmatic Investor digital book. And, as always, our software comes with a full 30-day guarantee of your satisfaction -- or your money back.
But you must ACT NOW -- this special offer expires on Monday, December 20th, at 11:50pm PST!
Don't miss your chance for significant savings as you get ready to improve your portfolio in the New Year.
Sincerely,
Mark.
P.S. Please share this offer with anyone else you know who might be interested.
New Pragmatic Investor 3.0 screenshots...
PI 3.0 is currently in development with a target release date scheduled for later this year. Here are some screenshots from the Historical Analyzer...
You can see exactly how the PI portfolio performed relative to a Buy and Hold model over the tested time period.
This chart shows how stocks in the group contributed to the portfolio's net profit.
This shows a graphical representation of the portfolio's annualized returns relative to B&H's.
Various statistics are available so you can see at a glance how the portfolio would have performed over the selected time period.
New Pragmatic Investor paperback book now available at Amazon.com
It's available at Amazon.com here --> http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/ASIN/B002ACXX64/automaticinvesto
For those who purchased "the Pragmatic Investor" digital book, I've set up an affiliate program (that's a program where you refer people to the PI book and if they purchase, you earn about $35 for each sale).
For details on the ebook visit --> http://www.pragmaticinvestor.com/pibook
If you're interested in participating in the affiliate program, visit --> http://www.clickbank.com/promote_products.html (or just send me an email and I can get you started).
Hi Everyone, I'm looking for a few beta testers for my Pragmatic Investor software upgrade. If you're interested, please send me an email (mhing@automaticinvestor.com).
I plan to have the beta version released next week. Although its listed as an upgrade, it is head and shoulders above the current PI version. It also incorporates the Value Stock Selector functionality, but is MUCH faster (currently VSS takes anywhere from 17 minutes, on a new machine, to a few hours, on single core older machines, to scan 8800+ stocks. The version built into the new PI takes about 1 minute and 20 seconds on an OLD machine).
As usual, if you're a beta tester, you'll receive a free copy of the software when its released.
If you have any questions, just let me know.
Thanks.
Hi Larry,
1) The difference you see in ratings and target prices between PI and VSS are there because they use slightly different algorithms. VSS uses a more conservative algorithm, so you will always receive lower target prices.
After reviewing both algorithms for the past year, I've decided that the one in VSS is safer and so will be adding it to PI in the next release (effectively replacing the current PI rating and target price system).
2) The Fundamental Analyzer uses a company's financial statements (Balance Sheet, Income statement and Cash Flow statement) to determine its rating. Of course mutual funds, being a collection of companies, don't have this information available. So the FA can't rate mutual funds.
However the Asset Allocation module doesn't require these statements, rather it just requires the historical prices -- which are readily available for both stocks and funds. That's why the AA can be used with funds.
So the answer to your question is, yes, results for funds allocated via the Asset Allocator are valid.
I hope that helped. Let me know if you have any other questions.
Hi Mark
I have been using your Value Investor and Pragmatic Investor for about a week now. I don't think this is a technical question because there is nothing wrong with the programs.
First of all I did find a source to download all market symbols to load into the Pragmatic Investor.
I read your post about your spam problem so that is probably why I didn't get a reply from customer service.
If I enter MSFT into PI I get a rating of 8.5, price $28.43 & fair value of $37.92. Now if I analyze MSFT in VI I get a rating of 7, price $28.43 & target of $23.891. It would help me to know why there is a difference. It seems obvious but I would like to hear what you have to say.
Most of my holdings are Mutual Funds and when I run a mix of stocks and MF through PI analyzer it doesn't give a rating for the MF. I understand why so that is not my question. Now when I check for the asset allocation the program does do an asset allocaton for both the stocks and MF. If the PI doesn't handle MF in the analyzer is the data produced in the asset allocation valid?
I would like to develop some confidence in these results so your help would be a great help.
Thanks
Larry G
Back Issues of the Aptus eGazette...
For those of you interested, you can find selected back issues of the Aptus eGazette here --> http://www.aptusgazette.com/index.html
Service Pack 2 for the Pragmatic Investor 2.0 is now available.
All registered PI 2.0 users can download the free update from here --> http://www.pragmaticinvestor.com/delivery007/pi20update.exe
Ensure you install the update into the SAME folder where you installed the Pragmatic Investor software. This is important, so please double-check the installation folder.
SP2 fixes a problem with retrieving current price data in the Fundamental Analyzer. This problem was caused by a recent change in stock quote format on the source web site.
It also adds a graphical meter to the Fundamental Analyzer so scores are easier to view.
Thanks Don!
I currently have 4 allocation methods I like to use (the two built into AI and PI) and two others that are like those, but use the semi-deviation (or downside risk) rather than the standard deviation.
The big thing about allocation methods is testing them. It's much more difficult than testing historical returns (as there are many more variables to incorporate).
So far I've been mainly relying on external studies when choosing allocation methods (although the studies are not too shabby as they were done by a number of finance professors and 2 Nobel Laureates), but I do have a fleshed-out idea on how to test myself.
Now I just need to find the time to implement it on the computer and feed it data.
Dividend Portfolio
I received the following e-mail from a friend. There are two items of interest associated with this message:..1) The return it’s achieving, and 2) The allocation methodology. Mark, I would think that this allocation methodology could be programmed to provide a suggested stock allocation mix. The spreadsheet is quite simple, if anyone would like a copy, please e-mail me.
Don Carlson…..dcarlson007@msn.com
===============================================
Guys : Here is the Excel Spreadsheet that I use for my dividend strategy.
I use 5 stocks and use BY Byington's Spreadsheet to determine the precent to allocate to each issue.
By gave this to me a couple of years ago. He was trying to find a buy and hold method for mutual funds.
It's based on correlation and standard deviation. Correlation is to the S&P 500.
All of these five stocks have low correlation to the S&P and represent several sectors.
The higher the Standard Deviation the less % you buy.
The equity line is smoother than EAD --higher return and lower drawdown.
To use these 5 stocks in this spreadsheet, all you have to do is enter the current price of the stock and
change the $100,000 total allocated to portfolio to what ever.
If you want to change any of the stocks-you must enter the current correlation and Standard deivation.
I get that information from FT's spreadsheet
The 5 stocks that I use and current dividend yields are
Stock Dividend Yield
EAD 11%
HYV 16.79%
Vlccf 12.2%
PGH 10.65%
SJT 11.4%
Hi Don,
Thanks for the post on correlations -- as well as the examples.
For those that don't know...
You should try to select stocks that have the lowest correlations between them. The AI Asset Allocator will show you the correlations of all stocks in a research portfolio, so you can quickly select the right ones.
When looking for low correlations it's best to use longer time periods (i.e. more historical data) rather than shorter ones. I like to use 3+ years.
REITs (112)
Currently none of these REITs have a score of 7 or better, as of 1-24-05; but then, I'm not sure if REITS will ever score that high --- perhaps someone familar with REITs can comment:
ADC
AEC
AIV
AKR
ALX
AMB
AML
AMV
ANL
ARE
ARI
ASN
AVB
BDN
BED
BFS
BOY
BPP
BRE
BXP
CARS
CBL
CLI
CNT
CPT
CPV
CRE
DDR
DRE
EGP
ENN
EOP
EPR
EQR
EQY
ESS
FCH
FR
FRT
GBP
GGP
GLB
GRT
GTA
HCN
HCP
HIW
HME
HMT
HPT
HR
HRP
HT
HUMP
IHT
JAMS
KIM
KPA
KRC
KRT
LHO
LRY
LTC
MAA
MAC
MHX
MLS
MRTI
MSW
NHI
NHP
NHR
NNN
NXL
O
OFC
OHI
OLP
PCC
PCL
PGE
PKY
PLD
PNP
PP
PPS
PSA
PSB
PW
RA
REG
RPI
RPT
SHU
SKT
SLG
SMT
SNH
SPG
SSS
SUI
TCO
TCR
TCT
UBP
UDR
UHT
UMH
USV
VTR
WRI
WXH
Hi Bob, ----- Correlations
Correlation is a measurement of the strength of the relationship between two stocks. Correlation measures the extent to which the movements of the issues are similar.
You might want to look at the charts of the examples below:
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/cq?s=VFINX%2c+VTSMX%2c+RYNVX%2c+RYURX%2c+ERTS%2c+PETM%2c+LLTC%2c+GNTX&....
High Correlation Issues
For example,
• Vanguard Index Trust 500 (VFINX)
• Vanguard Total market Index (VTSMX)
VFINX VTSMX
VFINX 1.0000 0.9968
VTSMX 1.0000
RYNVX RYURX
RYNVX 1.0000 -0.9929
RYRUX 1.0000
ERTS PETM LLTC GNTX
ERTS 1.0000 0.5443 -0.0965-0.0653
PETM 1.0000 -0.01921 -0.6648
LLTC 1.0000 0.4426
GNTX 1.0000
CORRELATIONS I still have a problem understanding how to use this. Please explain SIMPLY or make it simpler.
FOLLOW UP. My suggestion is to have the right click system for all screens. That way you could save or print as you wish. Forget the save data etc, etc.
ALL OVER 7. First time I have tried to save Data and you have a problem here It is in some previous version of Access and makes it impossible to save and copy to another file. This needs fixing.
PDII,HYC,STGS,TNM,TRDO,GES,ERTS,STLY,AIT,ABFS,SILI,IGI,TMO,CTR,PFE,EYE,LPX,PEET,ACAT,SAM,MNC,CDI,KOMG,UEIC,BKST,POWL,DFS,PCTY,ARDNA,NUE,LECO,MVK,AM,RLRN,HVT,WDHD,FLWS,PCCC,GWW,HH,USTR,JJSF,FWRD,HYSL,BBOX,LUFK,WGO,LLTC,ETH,VARI,DOSP,BHE,GNTX,PLCE,MMS,ZLC,FLO,WWW,ARO,KCP,SUP,STAR,MANH,LIN,TOO,LTD,THQI,DCO,WERN,KEYS,MRTN,DG,VTIV,KAI,LKQX,NSIT,OPTN,FINL,MOV,SEAC,JILL,CIX,PVN,SCVL,SBSE,GYMB,TTMI,MU,LYTS,CHIC,
Hi Bob,
Once you've used the Pragmatic Investor's Fundamental Analyzer to pick the best scoring stocks, the next step is to assess them as described in the digital book.
If it were me and I had 90 stocks that scored 7+, I'd categorize them by industry and then select the best 2 or 3 from each industry (with "best" being defined as described in the book).
Then for the ones that made it, I'd run them through the asset allocator (with at least 5 years of historical data) and check the correlations. Selecting a portfolio of stocks with low correlations between them would be next.
Finally I'd choose between 10 and 20 stocks (spanning different sectors and having the lowest correlations) and run them through the asset allocator again (using the "Stocks and Funds" option and at least a 5 year history) to determine the allocations.
Anything that was allocated as 0%, I'd drop. The remaining stocks would make up your portfolio. You'd allocate dollars to each stock as designated by the asset allocator.
This assumes you have enough money to invest in 10 to 20 stocks (I'd recommend at least $50,000 to $100,000 for 10 to 20 stocks). On the other hand if you don't want to invest that much, you can select less stocks (keep in mind that if you select less than 10 stocks you might not be sufficiently diversified, but if you have other investments, such as Real Estate, bonds, cash, etc., that might be okay).
I hope this helps. Let me know if you have any other questions.
BTW, can you post the stocks that scored 7+?
Mark,I have managed to accumulate a list of 132 stocks. Fundamental run on them give me over 90 with score of 10-7. Just how can I sort these out to find the best ones????Please email me with the answer. bob839usa@earthlink.net
Hi Bob,
No, you have the current version. The Pragmatic Investor 3.0 is scheduled for release in the first quarter of 2005. My previous post was referring to some features that will be in 3.0.
As soon as PI 3.0 is released I'll send you an email so you don't have to worry about missing it.
I have 2.0 did you send me an old one?
Hi RCB,
The changes I listed in my previous post were for the Pragmatic Investor version 3.0, however some of these changes will make it into AI a little later in 2005.
If you have any suggestions I'd be happy to hear about them. Just send them on over to my email address.
Hi Mark
Looking forward to your updates in the new year. You seem to have a lot of new features that will be helpful. Will we be able to download these changes on to our AI 3.1 program. Keep up the good work on updates. Thanks again for your great support when I need your help.
Regards
RCB
Excellent updates planned. No I did not receive egazette. bob839usa@earthlink.net
Hi Bob,
Yes, that was a Pragmatic Investor press release you read. I'm glad you liked it!
An upgrade is scheduled for release early next year. It will be a significant upgrade including:
1) The ability to enter your actual portfolio and have the software keep track of it (much like Automatic Investor does now).
2) Reports (lots of really useful reports). You'll also be able to export data to excel and text files.
3) A better Fundamental Analyzer using a Fuzzy Logic rules based expert system.
4) Support for Canadian Stocks (most of you in the U.S. won't use this feature, but for us Canadians it will be a boon).
5) Automatic rebalancing using Artificial Intelligence techniques.
6) The ability to schedule the Pragmatic Investor to run Fundamental Analysis at set times and notify you (via email if desired) when stocks score above (or below) a preselected limit (assuming you have an "always-on" Internet connection).
7) A Historical Analyzer so you can backtest your portfolios and compare them to the Buy and Hold strategy.
8) Different Fundamental Models that can be loaded/created as desired. So you could use a Ben Graham model in the Fundamental Analyzer or you might use a Peter Lynch model or create your own.
Plus a number of other less important, but still effective, improvements.
Regarding your question about emails, are you referring to the eGazette? One was sent out last month and the November issue will be sent soon. If you didn't receive the October issue, let me know and I'll send you one.
Mark, you made the news. Just read it on one of Yahoo News feeds. Good writeup. BTW, when are updates coming out and when will email start coming. Please reply to bob839usa@earthlink.net
Thank you Jack
Thank you very much for the information.
Regards
RCB
Hello RCB,
Thanks kindly for your comments.
With regards to MMF's, to my mind, the important criteria are:
1. Effective Yield
2. Convenience
Here is a sampling of current effective yields:
Phillips, Hager & North MMF-A: 2.06%
RBC Cdn. MMF: 1.48%
RBC mPrem MMF: 2.08% (for large amounts)
CIBC MMF: 1.28%
Similar to RBC, CIBC offers MMF's with higher yields (2.07% to 2.18%) for large amounts.
Depending on what institution you have your accounts with, you may need to trade off effective yield vs. convenience of getting your cash when you need it.
Regards,
Jack
Hi Jack
Thanks for the site. It is very good and will be using it. I have a good amount of non registered monies to invest and it will be very useful. Looking forward for Mark's program to have it interconnected. I have you on my favorite's list and always read your comments. I have invested my RSP and my wife's RSP equally across the 5 canadian ETF Sectors. I invested a portion of my 30%foreign content in SPY but I am waiting a bit to invest the rest to see where the american dollar is going to go. The gains so far have been eaten up by the dollar difference. Do you know of any good money market funds with low MER where I could park the cash during the waiting period.
Thanks again
Regards
RCB
Hello Jack,
Thanks again for the information. I will be updating both the Pragmatic Investor and Automatic Investor early next year. One of the main items on the to-do list is to have a source for Canadian data. So it's coming...
Hi Mark,
I just tried that website without using a password and it did allow me to access data without signing in. In the past, it had required me to sign in; so, I always did.
About Cdn. vs. US data, the way it seems to work is that, in most cases, if the ticker symbol is correct for the Cdn. listed company, it will provide data in Cdn. dollars. However, I did experience a few situations where I used a valid Cdn. ticker symbol and it told me that there was no data available. In those cases, I did a search under the name of the company and came up with data in US dollars, which, for my purposes, was just as useful.
One example I could think of right now is Dorel Industries of Montreal, PQ. Keying in a Cdn. ticker symbol, DII.MV, I get a response that there is no data available. In a situation like that, I would look up data for the US listed stock.
As an aside, and you may already be aware of this, there have been some recent changes in ticker symbols of some stocks listed on the TSX, showing additional letters, such as 'sv', etc.
I think it would be great if you get the fundamental screener / analyzer in AI to work with Cdn. stocks.
Regards,
Jack
Jack,
Thanks for the link. I just checked it out and it seems to have data for all the Canadian stocks I tried.
A couple of questions...
1) I didn't need a password to view the financial statements and key ratios. When you say a password is required, when does it ask you for one?
2) If I enter a ticker symbol, say BNS, I see the description says "The Bank of Nova Scotia (USA)." How do you retrieve the Canadian information (if I use JDU or NT it seems to bring up Canadian versions)?
Any insight into these questions would be appreciated.
Mark,
One of the better no-cost sources for researching Canadian stocks, that I have found, is the following:
http://finance.sympatico.msn.ca/investor/stocks/welcome.asp
What I like about this site is that information is available for just about any Canadian stock. Sometimes, it will not provide data for a Cdn. stock, if the stock is also listed on a US exchange, in which case, one would simply view data available for the stock using the US ticker symbol.
A password is required to sign in; so, it may or may not work for your program.
Regards,
Jack
Hi RCB,
Yes, Canadian stocks can be hit and miss. I'm currently looking for a good site with Canadian financial statements (I actually have the same problem with my RSP -- but fortunately a number of my Canadian stocks also trade on the US markets).
The next upgrade will include the option to select a Canadian data source, which should alleviate some of the missing data problems.
Hi Mark
Don sure has a great list for US stocks. Unfortunately with our RSP restrictions we are allowed to invest only 30 % foreign. When we try to find good scores for canadian stocks we don't get all the data required for many of them and this does not give us a true analysis for the stock. Does anyone have any alternatives to this.When done individually it is very time consuming. Your program works very well with US stocks.
Regards
RCB
Hi Jeff,
Thanks for the suggestions. The first two are already planned for the next release and I've added the last one the list (good idea!).
Let me know if you have further suggestions.
Hi Mark,
Seeing Don's list of 7+ stocks from the AI program reminded me of a suggestion I had. I'd like to see a way to import a list of stocks into the fundamental screener. As it is now, we have to type in each one by hand, which can be a tedious process given a list like the one just posted. In addition, it would be nice to be able to export the results to excel as well, as it is tedious to do that by hand too. For example, I like to put my watch list results into excel and then sort them by the ratio of fair value to current value.
One final request is to add a field to the fundamental analyzer showing the average daily volume over the past 3 months (or some time frame). It doesn't need to affect the score, but it would be nice to see this info to screen out those with not enough daily activity.
But I love the program - keep up the good work!
Jeff C
Don,
Great list, thanks!! I own several on that list: KOSP, KOMG, PLCE, LPX, CBK, CCMP. I'm very happy with the activity, AIM-wise. I had a watch list of the 7+ candidates, but it was only about half the size of the list you posted, so this was great. Thanks again!
Jeff C
Wow, thanks Don. Looks like you've been giving your computer quite a workout.
I think you covered all of the stocks I was following with scores of 7.0 and above.
For any AIMers out there, I've been AIMing PLNR and it has been a good AIM stock so far (quite volatile).
If anyone decides to select one or two of these high-scoring stocks and perform further analysis (as described in the Pragmatic Investor book -- see the ORCL example), please post your results here.
I think it would be interesting and might give us some ideas for investments.
Below are stocks with a score of 7 or better for Nasdq-100, SP-500, and Russell-2000 as of 10-23-04:
NASD-100 Score
ERTS 8.0
PETM 7.0
LLTC 7.0
KLAC 7.0
GNTX 7.0
SP-500 Score
TMO 8.0
PFE 8.0
ERTS 8.0
PKI 7.0
NUE 7.0
PVN 7.0
NSM 7.0
MU 7.0
LTD 7.0
LPX 7.0
LLTC 7.0
KLAC 7.0
GWW 7.0
DG 7.0
R-2000 Score
TNM 9.0
PDII 9.0
PCTY 9.0
MNC 9.0
CDI 9.0
RLRN 8.5
GES 8.5
ZLC 8.0
WGO 8.0
VTIV 8.0
VAS 8.0
UEIC 8.0
STLY 8.0
SMRT 8.0
SILI 8.0
POWL 8.0
PLNR 8.0
PEET 8.0
MTSC 8.0
MANH 8.0
KOMG 8.0
KCP 8.0
HYC 8.0
GYMB 8.0
FLO 8.0
FLO 8.0
EYE 8.0
DFS 8.0
CTR 8.0
CBK 8.0
BKST 8.0
ARDNA 8.0
ACAT 8.0
ABFS 8.0
WRNC 7.5
WDHD 7.5
TRR 7.5
TRDO 7.5
MVK 7.5
LECO 7.5
HVT 7.5
FBN 7.5
CHRS 7.5
ASPT 7.5
AM 7.5
WWW 7.0
WERN 7.0
VSAT 7.0
VARI 7.0
USTR 7.0
TUES 7.0
TTMI 7.0
TTI 7.0
TSAI 7.0
TOO 7.0
THQI 7.0
TDY 7.0
SUP 7.0
STGS 7.0
STAR 7.0
SHLM 7.0
SEAC 7.0
SCVL 7.0
SBSE 7.0
SAM 7.0
PLCE 7.0
PHCC 7.0
PCCC 7.0
OPTN 7.0
OO 7.0
NX 7.0
NSIT 7.0
MTX 7.0
MSA 7.0
MRTN 7.0
MOV 7.0
MMS 7.0
LYTS 7.0
LUFK 7.0
LTD 7.0
LNN 7.0
LKQX 7.0
LIN 7.0
LCUT 7.0
KOSP 7.0
KEYS 7.0
KAI 7.0
JJSF 7.0
JILL 7.0
JBSS 7.0
IGI 7.0
HYSL 7.0
HIBB 7.0
HH 7.0
HDL 7.0
HAE 7.0
GRC 7.0
FWRD 7.0
FLWS 7.0
FINL 7.0
FCFS 7.0
ETH 7.0
DCO 7.0
CVTI 7.0
CPWM 7.0
CIX 7.0
CHIC 7.0
CCMP 7.0
CBRL 7.0
BHE 7.0
BBOX 7.0
ATN 7.0
ARO 7.0
AMWD 7.0
AIT 7.0
I would be interested in working with a group just for finding excellent value stocks -trading in the lower 1/3rd range of their yearly range which should be about 80-100%.This would be stocks which have upward potential , are volatile enough to be used with the autmatic investor and financally strong enough to withstand market upheavels.I would like Canadian stocks but have better luck with US Stocks as I can do more extensive research. If anybody is interested, lets exhange ideas.
Wolfgang3@shaw.ca
I would be interested in working with a group just for finding excellent value stocks -trading in the lower 1/3rd range of their yearly range which should be about 80-100%.This would be stocks which have upward potential , are volatile enough to be used with the autmatic investor and financally strong enough to withstand market upheavels.I would like Canadian stocks but have better luck with US Stocks as I can do more extensive research. If anybody is interested, lets exhange ideas.
Wolfgang3@shaw.ca
Outstanding idea if every user knows about it. We can help each other here and not but Mark about everything. soon as some others show up I have lots of questions. Bob
I had a suggestion to start a Pragmatic Investor board from one of my users, so here it is...
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