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jbsliverer

04/11/10 9:33 PM

#82874 RE: jbsliverer #82873

There is a lot going on in this chart, so I hope that one can bear with me trying to explain my thought patterns. All of course with me being human, the charts are more prone to error and/or opinion than that of the computer drawn examples, but just something to humor oneself with.
In a falling wedge, one can roughly add the largest height on top of where the breakout occurs to get the target high price level and use the level where the breakout occurs to form the newer low price level. It’s not an exact science, so these levels are only approximate and the lower or higher range are not an “engraved in stone” deal, but one can see in the previous chart examples it holds somewhat true. In this chart of BEHL I drew in a falling wedge (light purple) with corresponding blue horizontal new low and high price levels that has given me that .095-.094 lower range that I spoke of last Thursday. The price had a confirmed break, went almost up to the projected target high, and last Thurs hit the lower range level. Not all that surprising, nor will it surprise me if the pps does it again. It doesn’t have to and all the pps has to be is close on either side of the line to still be valid.

Along with that, I have drawn that same wedge inside a much larger wedge (grayish lines) that is using just recently formed reference points by the last run-ups low and high. That falling wedge has a longer time period and would have a longer time period after any confirmed break to reach its high range but is putting the pps over the .02, yet to be confirmed, but is there and conforming to a reversal type falling wedge IMO.

Also last Thursday, in the subsequent retrace, the low gave me another point to put two possible scenarios that could be interpreted as a converging triangle or another falling wedge in even a shorter time period. These are marked in yellow and the corresponding solid or dashed upper price target levels with either one of those levels breaking the main grayish larger falling wedge. The converging triangle could just mean more consolidation of price, break to the low or high. The low does would have to make about to that .005 level and go through a lot of upwards pressure from so many things that it doesn’t seem too good of odds to go that way. It could consolidate, but then we are getting further into the point of the other wedge indicating maybe a stronger and longer uptrend and a new triangle could be formed. It’s somewhat hard to see here maybe to some, but I think it’s accepted that the volume has been getting lower overall in the period described matching to bullish wedges or triangles.

There is also the fact we are getting to a record of 13 red trend candles (beat the second at 10, last Fri was 12) with the CCI down into the oversold territory (dashed green line was projected on Thurs night) and Chaikin showing an upward trend pressure. Just these TA’s are showing signs that we may have a break soon to the positive, but there are others also.

Now I looked for the examples in my previous posted charts for stocks that were somewhat “triangle,/wedge friendly” in order to give different examples on one chart and I don’t know if BEHL will turn out to be bullish “wedgy friendly”, but I think it might be worth or at least interesting to watch.