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Replies to post #128814 on Triple 000 and Sub-penny Chart Plays
LONG TERM: Uptrend
A New Bull Market - Primary III Underway
We are currently expecting SPX 3,000+
in the next 2 to 4 years
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MEDIUM TERM: Uptrend
SHORT TERM: NFP 33k job loss surprise, DOW -2
Gold rose $6, and the USD was lower.
The market opened lower
by more than 5-points
for the first time in three weeks today.
Quite a record.
Traders took the opportunity to take some profits
after NFP surprisingly came in negative
for the first time in 7 years.
While many were blaming the negative report
on the hurricanes,
we took a look at the historical data.
Typically negative NFP reports
occur entering /during /
just after recessions.
There are occasions, however,
when an isolated one month decline
occurs during expansions:
1995, 1996 and 1997.
For now,
we’ll go along with the hurricane consensus
while awaiting next months report.
The pullback
from yesterday’s extremely overbought
SPX 2553 all-time high
is only 9-points so far.
Not enough to have an impact
on the short term count.
Yesterday’s comments still apply.
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Best to your trading!
Trade what’s in front of you!
LONG TERM: uptrend
This week let’s look at the big picture.
The very big picture.
While published data on the US stock market
only began in the year 1885,
we have been able to piece together,
using secular Saeculum cycles and economic cycles,
how the US market would have looked
from the early 1700’s.
As an emerging growth economy
the US would have not looked anything like
the European markets
that do have stock market data going back that far.
That data was not considered.
From around the year 1700 to 1929
the US experienced a 200+ year
grand super cycle bull market GSC 1
The 1929-1932 crash,
when the stock market lost nearly 90% of its value,
ended GSC 2
While short in time
the crash made up for it in price damage.
A GSC 3 bull market began at that 1932 low.
Within GSC 1 there were five super cycles, approximately:
SC1 1700-1770
SC2 1770-1776
SC3 1776-1850
SC4 1850-1857
SC5 1857-1929
Within the current GSC 3
there have been two completed super cycles,
with the third underway:
SC1 1932-2007
SC2 2007-2009
SC3 2009-xxxx
Since super cycle bull markets last 70+ years,
this SC3 is not likely to top until around the year 2080.
Within each super cycle bull market
there are five Cycle waves.
SC1 of GSC 3 divided as follows:
C1 1932-1937
C2 1937-1942
C3 1942-1973
C4 1973-1974
C5 1974-2007
Notice the Cycle wave bull markets
can be as short as 5 years or as long as 30+ years.
Also note, no matter the wave degree
the bear markets are always much shorter in time
than the bull markets.
