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Replies to post #60761 on SunWorks Inc (SUNWQ)
as if it's a cheap attempt to lessen the credibility of the company, or a reflection of some true "lesser value" of the company's stock,
There is no proof therefore timing will always be questionable relegating the argument to pure speculation.
Magic Money Friday, 07/11/14 01:35:44 PM
Re: None
Post # of 60761
The Cell is DEAD!! Long Live the Cell!!
Many people on this board have been in this stock for years. To them it's all about a future technology that they discovered about as early as the CEO. It's taken years to get where they are and they ARE in a good place regarding PPS, well at least some of them, the ones who got in too many years ago actually bought in higher than today's PPS. Hopefully they averaged down over the years.
Only a short 9 months ago (ballpark) The CEO for some reason decided he wanted to diversify the company. Maybe it was a hedge against any cell issues, maybe it was needed to further develop the cell without going broke, maybe it's simply a supplement to revenue. Hey, why not take 20 million dollars in annual revenue and turn a profit in the meantime? Sounds like a great idea for whatever reason initiated it!!
So now, they are closing in on the moment of truth. For some this is a rerun, as the cell was promised to go to production in the past. However this year is indeed different. For starters there's that solid revenue stream and beyond that there is another prototype under the belt that is either completed, or near completion.
"The Bright Future of Solar"
Only speculation can reveal an answer at this time as to if this cell will come to fruition either sooner or later. The bull "cell" case claims there's no way it can't. Even if the patent is weak, there is a product to be made. Even if the cell takes more time, something will be produced. There is actually 6 more months until the end of the year when the 10K stated a licensing deal would be inked and production begin. So the "cell" bulls have time, as well as a lot of new revenue to make their case.
The "cell" bears claim there simply isn't and won't be a cell produced. The term "vaporware" is being thrown around... The patent has been reviewed and people who have weighed in on it seem to be bearish on the updates. The deadline outlined in the 10K for the completion of the third prototype has passed and there hasn't been any PR on it, so the bears have some serious claws right now. However if a cell deal is in the works, I don't think anyone will hear about it until it's completed and this means we could be in the dark for a while... a long while... until 2015. There's also the "Cell" bear case that there is a problem with the cell or the patent, which could mean an entirely new round of design, prototype development and patents... in which case we could also be in the dark for a very long time. Time that some say the company doesn't have, with new technology hitting the news every day with ever increasing efficiency, there is a case to be made that at some point the 3D cell will just not turn out to be the groundbreaking technology it was when first talked about so many years ago.
The cell is dead, Long live Installation!!
As for the "installation" bulls, they are having a rough go at it lately as well. PPS is off the .16 cent highs post acquisition by more than 60%. However they are looking at the "bright future" Nelson has claimed so long to envision. With a possible 300% YOY growth in revenue, and a recent PR claiming 10 million in backlogs (that in itself is more revenue than the entire year of 2013), but the PR also noted a significant increase in that backlog in just a "few weeks". If the trend continues until the end of the year, some cocktail napkin math: a potential full dilution to 400 million outstanding shares, and a 40 Million dollar market cap, equates to a .10 PPS. That's a 30% upside from this morning.
The "installation" bulls also have their solid growth backed by a industry that's just starting to really catch fire. With only a couple big players, there is still huge amounts of market share hanging like low fruit that's ripe and falling into ledgers across the globe. Stack this explosive industry on top of a time when mergers and acquisitions are at multi-year highs and the CEO teasing a 2nd acquisition since the first deal was locked in and one wouldn't be called a fool for thinking the company could leave the cell behind and not look back.
"Installation" bears haven't really made a case that I'm aware of. There have certainly been no shortage of hot PR's regarding SUNworks. Although some of them have been in "a grey area" as far as accuracy and timing, none of them have been extremely far from the mark. The facts are, that the SUNworks side of the business appears to be "nailing it" hands down. Will they achieve the 300% YOY growth? They sure could at the breakneck speeds at which they are expanding organically. Will there be a 2nd acquisition to further bolster the bottom line? This could be a bear case on the installation side, as a 2nd acquisition could further dilute shares, and depending on the level of profitability of the new company, it could take even more time to integrate and punt profitability late into 2015-2016.
What's the company's name again??
Yes, you guessed it... The bulls have one more card to play. It's hard to imagine a company moving forward for very long being named after a defunct idea. It's also a hard case to make that a decent sized expanding and profitable solar installation company would allow itself to be acquired by a tiny non-revenue generating company with nothing more than a patent pending, unless there was a VERY grand plan to produce their proprietary solar cell and become a huge player in the game in doing so.
There is still plenty of time, and it will take time, but in that time the plan will be revealed either in the form of production, acquisition, and/or company name change.
I am long SLTD.
With a possible 300% YOY growth in revenue
