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Replies to post #4163 on *~1Best~* Market Timing & Trend-Signals

Replies to #4163 on *~1Best~* Market Timing & Trend-Signals

*~1Best~*

11/12/07 7:55 PM

#4293 RE: *~1Best~* #4163

GOLD trading at 806.80 today as it is gap-down. The speculation is over done, as noted earlier. While ending gold bull market does not equal to ending financial stock bull market. I do not think that we will see gold-mania as we had for a while.

~~


Posted by: __1Best__
In reply to: __1Best__ who wrote msg# 4072
Date:11/7/2007 11:39:14 AM
Post #of 4292

GOLD ending Gold bull market at 850 +/-: Gold recently made parabolic moves based on speculation that the world is falling apart. Gold traded to 850 in 1988, then traded down for 15 year bear market. As mentioned before, Gold speculation is pure speculation based on "what-if" scenario which has no fundamental basis for it except gold demand as a tangible asset; however, the world population does not demand gold dramatically more than it has before as Gold is preserved, not consumable commodity as oil/natural gas. Other speculation based on the value of $USD and geopolitical instability is just pure speculation.

Mentioned the above this morning that Gold speculation is over done and it will likely enter Gold bear market.

I think that GOLD will likely make long term top near 850 and will be entering in Gold bear market.

*~1Best~*

11/27/07 7:07 PM

#4537 RE: *~1Best~* #4163

Gold update: Gold traded to 821.30 today. I think that Gold market bubble is similar as housing market bubble as noted that some of the companies do not have PE. While Gold demand will rise because it is natural resources same as Oil, but gold is not consumable as oil. Gold will likely top near 850 +/-.









*~1Best~*

12/01/07 10:43 PM

#4633 RE: *~1Best~* #4163

Gold update: Gold traded to 789.10 closing the month with about 8% down; however, as noted, it has outperformed other major markets with over-speculation on a few issues which our economy is encountering. I think that those conditions are better now that one month ago as we saw financial sector supports and a bit better geopolitical stability. In addition, speculations relating to $USD is over done. Of course, needless to say, this is my opinion in contrary to those who are enthusiastic about hyping the need for why Gold should go up.

Higher Gold price in bubble mode which we recently have seen is not a good sign for progressive outlook of our economy. Gold speculation is overdone and it is similar as housing bubble.

Gold is closed near 50dma support, thus, we could get a bounce; however, monthly price action is now showing negative divergences.





*~1Best~*

12/30/07 4:30 PM

#5194 RE: *~1Best~* #4163

Gold mania update: Bernanke boss comment on inflation/deflation is boosting Gold hypers as if we don't have enough gold speculations to drive up the gold price.

I commented on the gold that 850 +/- is a significant resistance after super bubble after a breaking when we had Katrina disaster as shown on the chart below. Now, we have new monthly closing high even though we had HOD 854.50 on 11/8/07.

Many are hopping on Gold hype bandwagon to sell stocks and buy gold based on various speculation including winter kongdratieff cycle (high debt, bankruptcies, bank crisis, credit crunch, currency crisis, etc.)

Now we have McHugh jumping on gold bandwagon and my thought on his EW count 5th wave target is in agreement at which is 850-900. Gold 1000 is a double of 500 breakout, basic math for Gold Mania.

Instead of recession or deflation, it seems that Bernanke wants to create hyper-inflation?




~~~


http://www.safehaven.com/article-9115.htm

December 29, 2007

Gold Could See $1,000 in 2008
by Robert McHugh


Gold finished the Minor degree wave 3 of Intermediate degree 1 up on May 12th at $730.40, and has decisively surpassed that level, a Bullish breakout. It came close to hitting a new all-time high, above $850.00. It got to $848 on November 7th, 2007. It closed November with an average daily price over $800 an ounce for the first time ever. Gold is rising sharply once again.

Gold's Minor degree wave 4 was a Symmetrical Triangle, a consolidation pattern of the Minor degree wave 3 rally that started back in 2001 and extended into the May 12th, 2006 top. Waves a through e within wave 4 are complete. A break above $730 confirmed that the triangle is complete, and wave 5 up is underway. Wave fives typically extend with precious metals, so for wave 5, $1,000 is not out of the realm of possibility for Gold in 2008. Minuette wave i up of 5 up has not yet completed. Gold revealed itself to be forming a Symmetrical Wave 4 pattern, a five wave pattern of three waves each, that started at the $848 top on November 7th. This pattern looks complete, is textbook, is Micro wave 4, and Gold has predictably broken out higher from this pattern, wave 5 of i up.