Short Term Trading Member Forum

[techcharter]

The E-waves are less elusive now.
The SPX looks like it is completing an ending diagonal. The DOW has been making a multi week triangle. Today was a post triangle thrust. Often the thrust will equal the width if the triangle. But not this time.

I've been working on spectral analysis software. The model turns lagged major market turns by 50 to 150 trading days of moves greater than 20%. This happened 91% of times over the past 55 years!!!. The only set of turns missed was the 1997 Asian market crash. I've been able to decompose the model to predict its major cycles. Presently a market top to a >20% move to the downside is forming. The model is expected to top in 150 trading days, which places the market top of a >20% sell off in the high probability zone.

Based on previous market tops, this one should have at least one more wave 4 / wave 5 sequence. The model indicates the markets have at most 4% upside left. Odds favor exit of long term positions.