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Sunday, 03/23/2014 11:44:44 AM

Sunday, March 23, 2014 11:44:44 AM

Post# of 8299
OK, let's take an Objective look at the recent issuance of stock by the company and its overall effects to the investor holding prior to the issuance.

From 3-19 to 3-21 the Outstanding shares jumped from 17,154,000 to 26.439,000. Folks this is MASSIVE dilution. It increases the outstanding shares by a monumental 54%. To the investor this is a simple math process. 54% more shares in the float means each share owned prior to now represents a 36% reduction in their percentage share of the company. In the simplest of terms it can be viewed in this way. To make it easy we will use the figure of $5.00 value for each share prior to the dilution. After the dilution each share now only owns $3.20 of the same company. THIS is dilution and how it works. The size of the pie did not change. The number of slices did and each slice is now much smaller.

Now, on the positive side, the sale of stock did bring in much needed cash. For analysis purposes we will accept the 55 million figure cited by some. If you add this to the cash on hand cited in the 10Q of 6 million on 1/31/14 you have a base of 61 million.

You must understand, however, that the company continued to spend in February and March. They are presently burning $1,014,186 each and every month. The mathematical reality is that they poised themselves with funds sufficient to fund the company for nearly 5 years. You, however, would have to assume they would continue to burn at the same rate as present. If this assumption were true it would clearly indicate that the company did not begin any new trials as to do so would increase expenditures significantly. If, on the other hand, they do begin new trials the resultant window of available funds would decrease significantly from the 5 year funding window cited earlier.

Some have stated that they anticipate approval by the FDA of a product within 2 years. Such an expectation is totally unrealistic as the company has still not even fully completed Stage II and then the Process of Stage III would begin. The Phase III process takes between 2.5 to 3 years and the following FDA review takes right around 1 year. So we are talking a minimum of 3.5 to 4 years PLUS whatever time it takes to finish the Phase II trials not yet completed.

Once these realities sink in for the general investment community I anticipate the whole stock issuance and resultant dilution combined with the present burn rate and any extrapolated future burn rate and the time needed to even have ANY hope at a successful drug approval will result in a drop in the PPS by 40% to 50% within the not too distant future.

Of course, the company will continue to issue timely fluffygrams that will engender excitement and optimism by many, but the reality is this company has little if any hope of success. Remember, we are talking of a company more than 20 years old that has NEVER had a profitable quarter, never had an approved drug and a burn rate and management compensation that is nothing less than obscene.

Ah, the smell of salt air
and the touch of gentle winds.

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