World Cup Soccer 2022 Qatar

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How U.S. can advance from Group G

When pressed about the current state of American soccer, manager Jurgen Klinsmann likes to refer to the “music” of playing the game at a world-class level. Since his appointment in 2011, Klinsmann has insisted that his players “understand that the pace internationally is much faster. The demand is much faster in terms of the concentration, speed of play, speed of thought, speed of implementing certain things."

The U.S. needs Jozy Altidore to be at his best in the 2014 World Cup.




Based on how the World Cup draw played out on Friday, American fans are about to witness how that message has been received over the last three years.



The United States drew into a very difficult Group G, as Germany, Portugal and Ghana are all countries with significant talent. According to the Soccer Power Index, they combine with the United States to form the second-toughest group in the 32-team field. But a quick glance at where the rest of the CONCACAF teams were placed illustrates just how deep this World Cup field is.



Additionally, it is important to remember that despite all the fanfare, the World Cup is a tournament. Yes, talent and pedigree are of paramount importance, but so is the ability to scout and strategize for an opponent that you will play one time on a neutral field.



Let’s examine three keys for the United States if they want to achieve their goal of reaching the knockout stage, and in the process establish themselves as a credible threat to the world’s top teams.



Take advantage of the schedule




The unfavorable draw makes earning three points in the Yanks’ first game against Ghana a virtual necessity, and there is no doubt that is where Klinsmann will focus the bulk of his attention. If the Yanks can do that (and Germany beats Portugal), the outlook won't be so bleak, especially since Germany could already have clinched first place in the group by the time the U.S. plays them in the third game.

In 2010, the United States found considerable success attacking Ghana up the middle of the field, completing 76 percent of their passes in the center of their attacking half and creating seven scoring chances on the way to outshooting Ghana 21-16. In 2014, the familiar midfield trio of Michael Bradley, Clint Dempsey and Landon Donovan will need to turn in a similar performance, but this time with a slight tactical twist.



Similar to the United States, the core of Ghana’s 2010 midfield still plays an integral role in the team’s current success. Juventus midfielder Kwadwo Asamoah leads his team in interceptions, Schalke midfielder Kevin Prince-Boateng leads his Bundesliga side in goals scored and Andre Ayew is an opportunistic midfielder who leads Marseille in shot attempts.



In order to attack this midfield, former United States coach Bob Bradley placed Donavan, the team’s most dangerous attacker, out on the right side. Keeping track of Donovan successfully distorted the shape of Ghana’s midfield, and thus allowed Dempsey, Bradley and Maurice Edu to win overall control of the middle of the field.



The heat map below reveals the sharp contrast between Donovan’s role against Ghana and his typical "false 9" responsibilities. And to be clear, this was not a decoy role, as Donovan had more touches against Ghana than he did in any other World Cup 2010 game, and scored the team’s only goal in the 2-1 defeat.



If Klinsmann imparts the same strategy in Brazil, Bradley’s linking ability in particular will be critical to the team’s success, as he is currently completing 91 percent of his passes in the Serie A. Deploying a threat as well-known as Donovan out wide also adds a crossing element to the United States attack, which leads us into the next biggest element for the United States’ success.

Jozy Altidore



The American midfield will play a significant role in Altidore’s success, and the striker will need proper service to score goals. However, in order for the United States to advance out of the group, it is more important that Altidore learns what it means to establish a true presence in the penalty area.



At 6-foot-1, it is imperative that Altidore finds more creative ways to be a threat within the penalty area at Sunderland. So far, the New Jersey-born striker has averaged shot attempts from 16.4 yards out in World Cup qualifying, but that average distance extends to 22.4 yards out in Premier League games. Early-season evidence indicates that cutting off Altidore’s service from the midfield leads to this decrease in quality shots, and consequently Altidore’s positioning farther from goal will bring even more defensive attention to Dempsey, with whom Altidore combined the most during qualifying.



Of course, becoming a world-class striker is no easy task. And if the United States is caught on its heels defending for the majority of its group games, a lone striker formation will become increasingly frustrating. But this is where Donovan’s (or any U.S. player’s) ability to get dangerous from wide positions will open things up.



A quick look at Sunderland’s wide play this season reveals that the Black Cats average 20 cross attempts per game -- right in the middle of the pack when it comes to Premier League teams. Digging deeper into Altidore’s individual stats, we not only see that Sunderland surpassed that average in the game that Altidore scored in against Chelsea, but also that the United States as a team averages more cross attempts in games that Altidore scores in. This is not to say that Altidore needs to be consistently fed crosses from his teammates, but rather that those crossing attempts keep Altidore involved in the game, and spread the field to the point where more opportunities can open in the central channel of the field as well.





Team defending



Group G not only presents complex challenges for the United States on a team level, it also features some world-class individual talent. Germany’s Mario Gotze and Mesut Ozil could grow to be the best midfield pair in the world, while Portugal’s Cristiano Ronaldo has established himself as a once-in-a-generation talent. These are not players that the United States encounters on a weekly basis, and on a stage like the World Cup you can guarantee they will be in peak form.



It is frivolous to pretend that these players can be completely neutralized. But for Klinsmann it will be important that he scouts his own players correctly to find the matchups that will disturb these players the most. For example, a player like Ozil has shown that he prefers to get receive the ball on the right side of the field, and with Germany he prefers to either connect with Phillip Lahm on an overlap or move the ball centrally to Toni Kroos (both tied for most passing combinations with Ozil).



This is where Klinsmann needs to choose his platoon midfielders wisely, as in these scenarios a right back like Geoff Cameron would not require speed to stay with Ozil, while a faster central midfielder like Maurice Edu could cover any overlapping attempts made by Lahm. The reverse is true with Ronaldo, who will require a quick defender to keep him from dribbling past, along with more tactically sound partners to take away his other options.



The SPI projection of a 39 percent chance for the U.S. to make it out of the group appears to be pretty fair. This will be an uphill climb for Klinsmann’s men, but there is a good chance they can make it out of the group is they can take advantage of the schedule, get Altidore service and hold their own against some of the world’s superstars. This is the perfect chance for the U.S. to show how far it has come as a footballing country.


Adrian Melville joined ESPN in 2013 as a soccer Insider. He previously held roles at NBC, Major League Soccer and Opta. After college, Melville played with the New England Revolution for a season, followed by a season with Santo Andre, a second-division club in Sao Paulo. Follow him on Twitter @adrianmelville.