I have thought of a possible liquidation price,
and I have tried to put my estimations pretty conservative:
For Namibia & Solimoes I have calculated a price only one quarter of what has been paid earlier by Galp Energia and TNK-BP,
+ for Polvo 100% of the aquisition price,
+ estimated YE cash,
+ assets held for sale
Solimoes Basin
US$ 250MM for 49%
(US$ 1B has been paid for 45% by TNK-BP)
R$ 550MM
Namibia
US$ 154MM for 86%
(US$ 100MM has been paid for 14% by Galp Energia)
R$ 339MM
Polvo field
US$ 130MM (will be paid to BP for 60%)
R$286
Cash & securities (YE)
US$86 (estimation Year End 2013)
R$200
Assets (for sale market price)
US$40 (rigs market value, Rosneft is buyer)
R$88
US$20 (IPEX) (proposals under analysis)
R$44
US$30 (A.A.) (proposals under analysis)
R$66
----
US$90 (assets)
R$198
Liquidation Price
US$710
R$1562
(US$1.14/gdr)
(R$5.26/share)
+578% from current GDR price 0.168
I fell this is the price one should pay at least in a liquidation.
GLA
