Tornado Alley (PROG)

[F6]

Tropical Cyclone 02B (Phailin)



Warning #13
Issued at 12/0300Z
Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

WTIO31 PGTW 120300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 02B (PHAILIN) WARNING NR 013//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02B (PHAILIN) WARNING NR 013
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
120000Z --- NEAR 17.4N 86.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.4N 86.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 18.6N 85.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 145 KT, GUSTS 175 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 20.0N 84.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 21.8N 83.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 23.5N 82.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
120300Z POSITION NEAR 17.7N 86.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 02B (PHAILIN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 330 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KOLKATA, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD
AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) DEPICTS AN INTENSE CYCLONE WITH A SYMMETRIC
WALL OF DEEP CONVECTION SURROUNDING A WELL-DEFINED 15 NM EYE. A
112154Z SSMI 85 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS A SYMMETRIC RING OF DEEP
CONVECTION AROUND THE EYE FEATURE AND ADDITIONALLY, ANOTHER BROKEN
RING OF CONVECTION OUTSIDE OF THAT, WHICH MAY BE INDICATING ANOTHER
EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE (ERC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON
DEFINED EYE FEATURE IN THE EIR ANIMATION WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 140
KNOTS FROM PGTW AND KNES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM
HAS MAINTAINED A POINT SOURCE ANTICYCLONE WHICH IS PROVIDING
EXCELLENT RADIAL OUTFLOW AND LOW (05 TO 10 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR. TC PHAILIN IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF
THE DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTHEAST AND WILL
CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHWEST AROUND THIS STR, MAKING LANDFALL
NORTHEAST OF VISAKHAPATNAM, INDIA, PRIOR TO TAU 24. THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO SLIGHTLY INTENSIFY TO A PEAK OF 145 KNOTS OVER THE NEXT
12 HOURS AS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS PERSIST, ALTHOUGH THE
POSSIBILITY OF ANOTHER ERC MAY HAMPER ANY FURTHER INTENSIFICATION.
AFTER TAU 12, A GENERAL WEAKENING TREND IS EXPECTED AS LAND
INTERACTION BEGINS TO ERODE THE SYSTEM WITH MORE RAPID EROSION AFTER
LANDFALL, LEADING TO THE SYSTEMS DISSIPATION BY TAU 48. THE
AVAILABLE NUMERIC TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, LENDING TO
HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST WHICH IS LAID CLOSE TO
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 120000Z IS
56 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 120900Z, 121500Z, 122100Z AND 130300Z.//
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http://www.usno.navy.mil/JTWC/

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